"Back to the future"

[Arwin]

Well, since you are the one who made the "plenty of PSP games past 1 million" quote in the 1st place, why don't you provide your own set of (hopefully more reliable) data to prove your point ? I provided a link, with which you disagree (btw, the Wikipedia entry provided by Darkblu is currently locked because of controversy and inaccuracies). Yes, all we have are estimations. But those estimations are at least extrapolated from actual data. You can argue about the details of said extrapolation, but before that either show us your own data on those many under the radar PSP Platinum games, or explain us how 4 games (giving you Wipeout) constitute "plenty".

Well, it's just that the info on how well the games sold isn't very readily available, that's the problem. There's really not much reliable data, except from publishers themselves. I got the Wipeout figure by accident on some business/turnover related webarticle that just mentioned it in passing. I can't even remember it, but it did mention a few others. I remember having thought that only DS games had broken the 1 million mark, mostly thinking this myself because there's often just Japanese figures available (which have been invariably impressive).

While searching for the link again, I did come across a link that indicated that the DS shipping figures had been overstated, and that DS sold meant sold to shops, not to customers. But it was an article for which you have to pay, and I don't want to go through the whole registration process right now (maybe later), so let's ignore that for now.

I also came across this one, but I do remember that NPD figures are considered unreliable by some. Still, it just goes to show that it's hard to work with reliable numbers, as these NPD figures are still a lot more than we have on Europe. More importantly, you used the NPD figures, and if you consider them reliable, then also consider this:

http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/psp./august-sales-show-ds-continues-to-pwn-202614.php

HARDWARE
August
DS Lite: 250,599 / DS: 27,503 = 278,102 (5,869,374)
PSP: 146,893 (5,003,534)

SOFTWARE
August
DS: 1,090,810 (18,337,100)
PSP: 875,638 (16,880,290)
Difference: 215,172 (1,456,10)

What this clearly indicates is that regardless of the totals, unless in Europe the difference between the DS and the PSP is huge, the difference between the DS and the PSP overall must be largely defined in Japan, and we know the figures for Japan. If all that is the case, then I don't believe that the DS reached 20 million when Nintendo claimed it did either. Do you? At the very least we'll have to conclude that either NPD is low, or Nintendo is high.

And what better way is there to keep perspective than calling 4 games "plenty" ? After all, actual handheld sales figures have a well-known Nintendo-bias, so some matter of "balance" is needed.

Well, I originally thought only GTA did that well, but as I said, I discovered my mistake. Now it is apparently 4 on PSP against 10 on DS, though still based on limited data (Kudos on Nintendo for having relatively good data management). But ok, plenty is far to relative a term in this case anyway. Suffice to say that the PSP has 4, and the DS has 10.

Thanks for the link on better revenue per unit for the PSP, I remember this conversation. Revenue per unit is a bit of a misleading notion, though, since it doesn't take into account development costs and actual sales.

Agreed. But if we look at the NPD figures, then it's not hard to imagine that the PSP sells sufficiently to make a decent profit. Sure, the PSP may have higher development costs in some cases, but not in all. The DS isn't that easy to program on if you want to achieve something special and it is interesting to see that of the 10 games with over 1 million sold, nine are Nintendo. For multi-platform developers, developing for the PSP may actually be cheaper because they can reuse a lot of things for a lot of their titles, which could make PSP games very cheap.

Hey, but the whole discussion came down to whether or not the PSP is a failing system, and the answer should definitely be "not likely". Sure enough right now the DS is doing better, but the PSP is still going strong and there is a long line of excellent games coming out. Even if the PSP hasn't made it quite beyond the 20 million mark just yet, both systems have now reached a price that will allow them to sell really well over the holiday season and by late next year, both systems will definitely be platforms large enough to stay.

Remember, the PSP is a huge number of games in the following months including several heavy hitteres. Just to name a few: MGS, FF, PES6, FIFA07, Lumines 2, Virtua Tennis 3, Lego Starwards II, Socom Fireteam Bravo 2, GTA: Vice City Stories, Ace Combat, Killzone: Liberation (just read the first review in Dutch, looking good), Madden 07, The Getaway, Medal of Honor: Heroes (with 32 player multiplayer), Championship Manager 2007 and Football Manager Handheld 2007, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, Prince of Persia: Rival Swords, Tony Hawk Project 8, Mortal Combat: Unchained, Toca Race Driver 3, Thrillville, etc. etc. etc.

Add to that the updates still coming, with the PSOne emulator, the E-Distribution network that should be great for small 'homebrew like' applications, tools, and probably more original games as it will lower the financial threshold for them, demos, trailers, downloadable movies, tv series, and what not for the PSP, the GPS and Eyetoy, and then when the PS3 is finally released there will definitely also be some extra interest for people to get a PSP for the extra features and so on.

In short, the future looks good to me.

 

[DUALDISASTER]

What gives you the idea it's going to stop selling? You seem to have this (irrational) fear of it, yet there isn't any evidence to support your fears. It's silly on your part.

There are far more productive things to waste your time worrying about (not that worrying about stuff in general is very productive to begin with).

"bidingtime 10.6.2006 at 10:54:48 AM
Nah, you don't need to say it, because some people are still enjoying their PSPs. Just like nobody needs to tell me to sell my GameCube, even though there's practically no new games for it anymore. I've been playing it every day lately.

Anyway, so do we have any proof the 500K number was false (are they sold out again) or does this mean the DS is finally not sold out in Japan?"

"soul4ger 10.6.2006 at 09:43:10 AM
The 500K shipped number was a lie, gotten from some troll on Japanese forums. From all accounts, DS is AGAIN sold out in Japan.

Need I say it?

Sell your PSP. It's all over."
from Gamesarefun.com

It's those kind of comments that gets me worried. Until now i didn't have numbers other than japan, so i thought it applied to all countries give or take.

And Arwin, thanks for the numbers. I had no idea they were so close in software nor did i when it came to how cheap it could be to develop for the PSP versus DS. Good thing to look forward to in the future...Speaking of which, i thought the emulator was suppose to be out by now

 

[Readykilowatt]

Remember, the PSP is a huge number of games in the following months including several heavy hitteres. Just to name a few: MGS, FF, PES6, FIFA07, Lumines 2, Virtua Tennis 3, Lego Starwards II, Socom Fireteam Bravo 2, GTA: Vice City Stories, Ace Combat, Killzone: Liberation (just read the first review in Dutch, looking good), Madden 07, The Getaway, Medal of Honor: Heroes (with 32 player multiplayer), Championship Manager 2007 and Football Manager Handheld 2007, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, Prince of Persia: Rival Swords, Tony Hawk Project 8, Mortal Combat: Unchained, Toca Race Driver 3, Thrillville, etc. etc. etc.

Just look at that lineup. With a lineup like that, it should be no surprise to anyone that the DS will contine to beat the PSP in sales.

 

[Rolf N]

I have a few questions consering the PSP's future:
1.Do you guys believe it is a failed product?
2.Will a killer app make a difference in sells for the hardware?

It seems no matter how hard Sony tries, they can't make their handheld to move. They've come out with great games and they still suffer from the "gamecube effect". What game needs to come out for the handeld to get some recognition it deserves?

I think of the PSP more as an "at home portable", i.e. I wouldn't be as willing to throw it into a bag. I know it's probably not that bad, but I don't trust the exposed screen to protect itself well from scratches, and also I think the exposed analog stick is a mechanical liability in a bag full of stuff.

I think this is one of the PSP's biggest problems. It prevents it from competing with the DS properly. It competes more with home consoles IMO.

That being said, for what it is, it's doing nicely. There are so many games out already, and so many more are coming that you're certainly going to find enough games that will suit your tastes. I can appreciate being able to play in a quiet corner without needing to sit in front of a TV with cables running across the room. If you don't care about that at all, you're probably better suited with a PS2 (because of the large overlap in available games).

 

[Corwin_B]

Well, it's just that the info on how well the games sold isn't very readily available, that's the problem. There's really not much reliable data, except from publishers themselves. I got the Wipeout figure by accident on some business/turnover related webarticle that just mentioned it in passing. I can't even remember it, but it did mention a few others. I remember having thought that only DS games had broken the 1 million mark, mostly thinking this myself because there's often just Japanese figures available (which have been invariably impressive).

Slightly OT, regarding sales data available :
- publisher data is usually shipment data, most of their actual sales figures comes from the same tracking system as consumer data (NPD, Media Create...). Nintendo has a very good tracking system for HW units (not SW), though, and I remember the guy at the store writing down the serial number of both my PSP and my 360 for tracking/warranty purposes.
- Media Create/Famitsu figures are generally reliable. There may be a couple of small mistakes (since they don't track absolutely all stores), but that's in the statistically insignificant range.
- NPD datas are pretty comprehensive, except they don't track Walmart (huge shop in the US) and approximate it instead. Their approximation is said to be pretty good, so it's generally close to actual numbers. NPD data has to be bought, but numbers are usually leaked on gaming forums
- Europe data is not very precise, since in France you only get ranks, in UK versions of a same game across systems are bundled together in the charts... Generally data for Europe comes from publishers (and as such is subject to caution and needs careful word-parsing).

While searching for the link again, I did come across a link that indicated that the DS shipping figures had been overstated, and that DS sold meant sold to shops, not to customers.

Actually all Nintendo PRs mention specifically hardware sold to customer, not to shops, and to the best of my knowledge is accurate when compared to data available elsewhere. I think their shipment data is available also. Also, shipment data for Nintendo and MS means "sold to stores" whereas shipment data for Sony means "out of the production line", which includes Sony's warehouses and the stock kept for warranty. Actually sold data is more meaningful than sold to retailers ("shipped"), which in turn is more meaningful than Sony's own version of "shipped".

I also came across this one, but I do remember that NPD figures are considered unreliable by some. Still, it just goes to show that it's hard to work with reliable numbers, as these NPD figures are still a lot more than we have on Europe. More importantly, you used the NPD figures, and if you consider them reliable, then also consider this:

http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/psp./august-sales-show-ds-continues-to-pwn-202614.php

What this clearly indicates is that regardless of the totals, unless in Europe the difference between the DS and the PSP is huge, the difference between the DS and the PSP overall must be largely defined in Japan, and we know the figures for Japan. If all that is the case, then I don't believe that the DS reached 20 million when Nintendo claimed it did either. Do you? At the very least we'll have to conclude that either NPD is low, or Nintendo is high.

DS LTD was at nearly 11.5 millions in JP 2 weeks ago (actual sales, Media Creat data)
DS LTD was at 5.84 millions in US at the end of August (NPD data, actual sales not shipment)
Last Nintendo PR regarding Euro sales was over 5 millions (beginning of July), with DSLite sales of 140K/week across Europe

So unless the EU figure is very grossly overstated by Nintendo (doubtful), actual sales vastly of 20 millions have been achieved a while ago.

Well, I originally thought only GTA did that well, but as I said, I discovered my mistake. Now it is apparently 4 on PSP against 10 on DS, though still based on limited data (Kudos on Nintendo for having relatively good data management). But ok, plenty is far to relative a term in this case anyway. Suffice to say that the PSP has 4, and the DS has 10.

DS millions sellers is 14, not 10. There's also the small matter of the actual amount of units sold since not all million sellers are equal. Total for all PSP million sellers combined is around 6 millions units, total for DS million sellers is well over 45 millions... That's not in the same league...

The lineup you quote for the PSP is pretty good, but many of those titles will also be in some form on the DS, which has its own killer apps too... Also many of those titles are not "system sellers". In the end, though, we both agree that the PSP is far from being a failed system.

Edit : September NPD data is in, with DS at 403K and PSP at 153K. GBA is also outselling the PSP by a small margin (177K). The DS now has a >1 million lead on the PSP in NA...

 

[Bobbler]

"bidingtime 10.6.2006 at 10:54:48 AM
Nah, you don't need to say it, because some people are still enjoying their PSPs. Just like nobody needs to tell me to sell my GameCube, even though there's practically no new games for it anymore. I've been playing it every day lately.

Anyway, so do we have any proof the 500K number was false (are they sold out again) or does this mean the DS is finally not sold out in Japan?"

"soul4ger 10.6.2006 at 09:43:10 AM
The 500K shipped number was a lie, gotten from some troll on Japanese forums. From all accounts, DS is AGAIN sold out in Japan.

Need I say it?

Sell your PSP. It's all over."
from Gamesarefun.com

It's those kind of comments that gets me worried. Until now i didn't have numbers other than japan, so i thought it applied to all countries give or take.

And Arwin, thanks for the numbers. I had no idea they were so close in software nor did i when it came to how cheap it could be to develop for the PSP versus DS. Good thing to look forward to in the future...Speaking of which, i thought the emulator was suppose to be out by now

Why do comments from some random clowns named bidingtime and soul4ger mean anything to you?

Small suggestion: Don't take to hear what chuckleheads on the internet say -- certainly not ones that seem to be fans of the opposing system. Surely you must be able to filter out what's just random garbage and what's actual information? That's a basic skill necessary if you want to read the internet.

I could post "Sell your DS, it's all over!" a bunch of times because MGSO is coming out on PSP and DS won't have anything even remotely close to matching it... but it doesn't make it true. Likewise to what those chuckleheads at gamesarefun.com said (whatever that site is... never heard of it).

 

[Corwin_B]

From the NPD data, September was really bad for the PSP : in addition to 153K HW sales (beaten by both the GBA and the DS), software sales were simply atrocious, with only 4 titles breaking the 25K barrier (including a single one between 75K and 100K, Madden).

It seems that the DS is gaining momentum in the US, and that the PSP doesn't escape the poor tie ratios that are the landmark of handheld consoles (which is why the Nintendo strategy of profit out of the box makes a lot of sense)...

 

[Arwin]

Europe data ...

Thanks for all the feedback on the number data and sources.

Actually all Nintendo PRs mention specifically hardware sold to customer, not to shops, and to the best of my knowledge is accurate when compared to data available elsewhere. I think their shipment data is available also. Also, shipment data for Nintendo and MS means "sold to stores" whereas shipment data for Sony means "out of the production line", which includes Sony's warehouses and the stock kept for warranty. Actually sold data is more meaningful than sold to retailers ("shipped"), which in turn is more meaningful than Sony's own version of "shipped".

Well, this is what was questioned in the article anyway. But yes, I know the difference between Sony's 'shipped' and Nintendo's 'shipped'. When I look at Sony's shipped, I look at the difference between the previous and next figure more than anything else. That way you can see for instance, that they have enough in store for the Japan market to drop production significantly, whereas for the U.S. and E.U. there is still enough demand to keep producing significant numbers.

DS LTD was at nearly 11.5 millions in JP 2 weeks ago

Man, that number is crazy. That means that *at least* half of the DS's sales are made in Japan. Comparing that to the performance of the PSP in Japan (which ironically enough isn't even that bad - the DS is just totally off the charts), it does reinforce the idea that in the West the DS and PSP are going head to head.

DS millions sellers is 14, not 10.

Ok, sorry, I used the link you gave me earlier, which listed 10 titles, 9 of which published by Nintendo by the way. But this is so unreliable, it might even mean that we only know the correct sales data for Nintendo titles. In general, I'll accept them, but I would like to know the sales figures for, say, Burnout Legends, or Monster Hunter. Also I would like to note that games published by Nintendo also take care of the vast majority of high-ranked games, so that there is an interesting development here. But of course, I'm also aware that EA asked Sony to step up regarding for promoting the PSP.

There's also the small matter of the actual amount of units sold since not all million sellers are equal. Total for all PSP million sellers combined is around 6 millions units, total for DS million sellers is well over 45 millions... That's not in the same league...

I wonder, with the GameCube's history, what the impact might be of the fact that at least the 10 in the link you gave earlier, were all published by Nintendo ... If they take out, say, more than 40 million out of the pool, how does that affect profitability for other publishers? Eventually good system sales will help them out, but I could definitely imagine that it holds them back for now.

The lineup you quote for the PSP is pretty good, but many of those titles will also be in some form on the DS

That is definitely the right way of saying it though.

which has its own killer apps too... Also many of those titles are not "system sellers". In the end, though, we both agree that the PSP is far from being a failed system.

I didn't say they were all system sellers, just some of them are potentially (surely, MGS and FF have that potential, although ironically a game like Monster Hunters 2, which I didn't even mention, is considered a system seller in Japan also).

Anyway, yes, I agree with you there. What both systems are showing is that there is plenty of room on the market for two of them. Both systems actually expand the market. In my experience, the PSP draws a lot of owners who so far haven't been interested in handhelds, but did have a console in the current generation. The DS draws in both gamers that have had a Gameboy previously, and gamers who are relatively new to the whole gaming concept. Of course these are generalisations, but I think they hold fairly well. I definitely think that the PSP should target 360 and PS2/PS3 owners, and make having the game on both systems more worth their while - for instance make deals in which you sell both versions together for a reduced price, stuff like that, and then have them interact cleverly. The E-distribution thing is also going to matter a great deal. It's very important for them to pull that off - if they are successful there, then the PSP could become a runaway success also. It will allow for more unique games to be sold, and will reduce development and distribution costs for simpler games considerably.

Edit : September NPD data is in, with DS at 403K and PSP at 153K. GBA is also outselling the PSP by a small margin (177K). The DS now has a >1 million lead on the PSP in NA...

Note that the GBA outselling the PSP means as much as the PS2 outselling the 360. And a +1 million lead is only 20%.

 

[cthellis42]

As far as I can tell, GBA sales in the US are held up almost exclusively by parents' purchases for very young kids. At least out here, everyone in kindergarten-thru-2nd-or-3rd grade has one. And just how long can parents keep from caving to their 5-7 year olds? My brother held off for a year, but eventually had to get it when my nephew turned six. Heh...

Sure, the games they play are cheesetastic (mainly TV and movie-licensed platformers and such; I get my nephew games like Warioware, natch!), but that's what keeps them riveted. And while japanese parents are smarter and get their kids a DS now, it still bodes well for future DS sales out here. There's no "baby's first PSP," after all.

The PSP really needs to see what it can do as far as PS2/PS3-linked features and play goes, as well as wifi media play/purchasing, if they can tap that market.

 

[Corwin_B]

Well, this is what was questioned in the article anyway.

As far as I can remember, each time they released actual sales figures, current (MC) or later data (NPD can be 1 month late on PR reporting) proved them correct. The only place where they could potentially cook numbers would be Europe. I'd really be interested if you can find this article.

Man, that number is crazy. That means that *at least* half of the DS's sales are made in Japan. Comparing that to the performance of the PSP in Japan (which ironically enough isn't even that bad - the DS is just totally off the charts), it does reinforce the idea that in the West the DS and PSP are going head to head.

Yesterday's data indicated that the gap for US just reached 1 million units, and the gap for Europe was similar last time both companies communicated on their sales (which was at the beginning of summer, IIRC). That's not a huge difference, but not small either. It remains to be seen if the DSLite momentum goes on in Europe. Software sales in EU are still very strong for Nintendogs, Brain Training, and Mario, in any case. There are weeks where the French chart looks like a JP one.

Ok, sorry, I used the link you gave me earlier, which listed 10 titles, 9 of which published by Nintendo by the way.

My link on VGCharts ( http://www.vgcharts.org/worldtotals.php?name=&console=DS&publisher=&sort=Total )gave 13 titles, but was a bit outdated since Pokemon didn't appear on the list. Darkblu's list on Wikipedia lists 14 titles.

In general, I'll accept them, but I would like to know the sales figures for, say, Burnout Legends, or Monster Hunter.

Monster Hunter did extremely well in Japan (a bit under 700K, IIRC), so-so in the US (86K first month, still between 10 and 25K in September) but tanked in EU. This is one of the PSP titles with 1 million in reach, though.

Also I would like to note that games published by Nintendo also take care of the vast majority of high-ranked games, so that there is an interesting development here. But of course, I'm also aware that EA asked Sony to step up regarding for promoting the PSP.

Well, that has always been the truth on Nintendo's platforms (especially handhelds). BTW, regarding what you said yesterday on DS being hard to program to get good visual results (which I won't disagree with), it's also interesting to see that you don't need a great looking-game to have huge sales on the DS. On the 14 million sellers on the DS :
- Nintendogs, Mario Kart and Super Mario 64 somewhat push the system
- Animal Crossing, Mario & Luigi, New Super Mario Bros, Pokemon D/P look good and probably represent a large development time but don't push the system graphics-wise too far
- the rest of the bunch (Brain Training 1&2, Big Brain Academy, Wario Ware Touched, English Training, Tetris, Tamagotchi) took very little time to develop, and as such may very well be counted among the most profitable video games of the last years.

In all likelihood, FF3 DS will reach 1 million (perhaps in JP alone), meaning that there is also room for high production value games on the DS. IIRC, Metroid Prime Hunters sold decently too (at least in the US, and appeared on a couple of weekly charts in EU IIRC).

I wonder, with the GameCube's history, what the impact might be of the fact that at least the 10 in the link you gave earlier, were all published by Nintendo ... If they take out, say, more than 40 million out of the pool, how does that affect profitability for other publishers? Eventually good system sales will help them out, but I could definitely imagine that it holds them back for now.

Actually, although Nintendo's big titles sold more on GC (they always do on their systems), NGC was much better 3rd-party wise than the horror that was the N64. Regarding NDS, the data available shows that there is definitely room for 3rd party games. In JP alone, there are many 3rd party games over 200K or 300K, which, while not "wow"-level, is probably very profitable for comparatively simple titles. Western 3rd party games tanking on DS can be adequately explained by the fact that they mostly release the same shameful shovelware than on GBA (licensed crap, buggy games, games not designed with DS in mind), and that the GBA audience that gobbles up that crap has not migrated on DS yet (it probably will once NoA shows them their Pokemans, and/or price reaches 99$). I'm not saying that shovelware is a virtue, but it's a fact that there is lots of it on popular platforms (PS2, GBA...). In any case, momentum for 3rd party development is currently shifting from PSP (which almost everybody betted on) toward DS (as seen in the recent comments by EA, for example, or in the incredible commitment of Square).

Anyway, don't forget the fact that even if some of Nintendo's own titles are selling like gangbusters at levels very few 3rd party devs can reach, 3rd party games on the PSP often do even worse...

Both systems actually expand the market. In my experience, the PSP draws a lot of owners who so far haven't been interested in handhelds, but did have a console in the current generation. The DS draws in both gamers that have had a Gameboy previously, and gamers who are relatively new to the whole gaming concept. Of course these are generalisations, but I think they hold fairly well.

I would agree with that. An interesting point is that although PSP seems to attract people from the "traditional" console market, it's seeing tie ratios in line with other handhelds. I may be wrong, but I think piracy is also a very real issue with regard to PSP's SW sales potential.

The E-distribution thing is also going to matter a great deal. It's very important for them to pull that off - if they are successful there, then the PSP could become a runaway success also. It will allow for more unique games to be sold, and will reduce development and distribution costs for simpler games considerably.

While I definitely enjoy the prospect of PS1 emulation and unique, XBLA-like games on the PSP, I'm not so sure this will matter a great deal with the general public.

Note that the GBA outselling the PSP means as much as the PS2 outselling the 360.

Well in both markets that reminds us hardcore gamers that there are people out there who like their gaming systems cheap and with a large variety of games across many genres, something both the GBA and PS2 possess, and 360 and PSP lack.

And a +1 million lead is only 20%.

I'm sure you would say the exact same thing if the PSP had a 1 million units lead over the DS...

 

[Arwin]

- the rest of the bunch (Brain Training 1&2, Big Brain Academy, Wario Ware Touched, English Training, Tetris, Tamagotchi) took very little time to develop, and as such may very well be counted among the most profitable video games of the last years.

Duly noted.

(By the way, she's very much an exception I think, but I take some pride in that my sister got bored with Brain Training within a week, because she already got to 21 at that point.)

In all likelihood, FF3 DS will reach 1 million (perhaps in JP alone), meaning that there is also room for high production value games on the DS. IIRC, Metroid Prime Hunters sold decently too (at least in the US, and appeared on a couple of weekly charts in EU IIRC).

Yep, it is impressive. Still, I'll be interested to see the FFVII on PSP, which is not a remake, and see what that game will do to PSP sales together with MGS: PO. A lot more time went into FFVII, and it should be an original game, and MGS definitely is. These two games are sure to cause a spike ...

In JP alone, there are many 3rd party games over 200K or 300K, which, while not "wow"-level, is probably very profitable for comparatively simple titles.

True, and sadly enough, when a company like EA looks at that, they will initially try to do just that. Hopefully they will be duly punished if they do, and forced to step up their game.

Western 3rd party games tanking on DS can be adequately explained by the fact that they mostly release the same shameful shovelware than on GBA (licensed crap, buggy games, games not designed with DS in mind), and that the GBA audience that gobbles up that crap has not migrated on DS yet

Oh they have, certainly in Japan, but they've been spoiled now. They had it far too easy on the GBA.

momentum for 3rd party development is currently shifting from PSP (which almost everybody betted on) toward DS (as seen in the recent comments by EA, for example, or in the incredible commitment of Square).

Well it will be interesting to see what EA can do if they can't rehash their stuff over all platforms and just make another tweaked upgrade. (somewhat kidding - I like some games, though it seems as they bought most of them rather than developed). Hey they may be forced to actually come up with a decent game ... Or else buy a talented developer or two.

Anyway, don't forget the fact that even if some of Nintendo's own titles are selling like gangbusters at levels very few 3rd party devs can reach, 3rd party games on the PSP often do even worse...

But those who make a legitimate attempt can definitely score.

I would agree with that. An interesting point is that although PSP seems to attract people from the "traditional" console market, it's seeing tie ratios in line with other handhelds. I may be wrong, but I think piracy is also a very real issue with regard to PSP's SW sales potential.

I share your concern there, as the PSP demographic happens to be largely guys at a certain age, and we all know what they can be like. Piracy isn't going to affect the hardware sales of the PSP at this stage though.

While I definitely enjoy the prospect of PS1 emulation and unique, XBLA-like games on the PSP, I'm not so sure this will matter a great deal with the general public.

Depends on what you consider general public. Not the traditional GBA public probably, but there's a new general public for PSPs who regularly transfer their favorite tv shows to their PSP.

Well in both markets that reminds us hardcore gamers that there are people out there who like their gaming systems cheap and with a large variety of games across many genres, something both the GBA and PS2 possess, and 360 and PSP lack.

Or maybe they're just really cheap right now ... I mean, parents feel safe with giving their kids a GBA because its sturdy and easily replaced, but the PSP is regarded as something to valuable (and for these kids, the DS too, to a lesser extent).

I'm sure you would say the exact same thing if the PSP had a 1 million units lead over the DS...

I can honestly answer yes to that question. I generally like to balance a discussion when it is unduly unbalanced, and if it were unduly unbalanced against the DS, I'd go there too. I actually regularly do - I talk to a lot of IT guys who sometimes get to see my latest PSP fad, get curious about the DS, and exclaim "Oh my god! Those graphics are horrible!". At this point, I remind them that while, yes, the DS's graphics are somewhat limited, I point towards the stylus, and some nice unique features and original games. It probably doesn't help much with these PC spoilt folk, but they hear me, and afterwards they will be more open to the system (and then probably buy neither anyway, though I only have colleagues with PSPs at this moment).

 

[Arwin]

How reliable are http://www.vgcharts.org/usayearlysum.php, Corwin, do you have any info on that? If I look at the software sales totals, that figure looks very healthy for both DS and PSP, but also suprisingly close ... 20.4 vs 19.0, that's impressive. Of course, the trends do suggest that the DS is going to make some distance in the coming months, but it's looking healthy so far. Also, as I expected, Sony is taking a much smaller part of the cut so other publishers have so far managed to get some good sales in, and sales also seem to be more evenly distributed among the titles on the platform. It confirms that if you take Japan out of the equation, the platforms are doing very equal. The question that remains is whether or not on the long term, the Japanese success is going to have a global effect. Some have expected this was an important factor for the PS2, though how much that affected the PS2 compared to the PSX I don't know. It would be interesting to know though, because it has implications for the 360's success and its relation to how well it is going to do on the Japanese market, or whether the success of the PS2 is it's biggest opponent - in which case in the U.S. it should continue to do well as the original Xbox made some good headway in the States.

Well, sorry for a bit of rambling, just getting some quick thoughts out there before dinner.

 

[Readykilowatt]

It confirms that if you take Japan out of the equation, the platforms are doing very equal.

This is interesting...

July 31 - August 6, 2006
Nintendo DS Lite - 163,572
PSP - 49,352
PS2 - 25,987
Game Boy Advance SP - 2,784
Game Boy Micro - 1,928
X360 - 1,389
Nintendo DS - 1,159
GameCube - 904
Game Boy Advance - 34
Xbox - 14

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8272&page=24

August 7 - 13, 2006
Nintendo DS Lite - 196,719
PSP - 41,289
PS2 - 26,547
Game Boy Advance SP - 3,051
Game Boy Micro - 2,031
X360 - 1,204
GameCube - 940
Nintendo DS - 934
Game Boy Advance - 23
Xbox - 6

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8272&page=24

August 14 - 20, 2006
Nintendo DS Lite - 74,495
PSP - 41,535
PS2 - 26,833
Game Boy Advance SP - 3,823
Game Boy Micro - 2,266
X360 - 1,493
GameCube - 922
Nintendo DS - 712
Game Boy Advance - 20
Xbox - 7

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8272&page=24

August 21 - 27, 2006
Nintendo DS Lite - 163,274
PSP - 29,945
PS2 - 21,829
Game Boy Advance SP - 2,719
Game Boy Micro - 1,819
X360 - 1,197
GameCube - 837
Nintendo DS - 410
Game Boy Advance - 14
Xbox - 12

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8272&page=25

August 28 - September 3, 2006
Nintendo DS Lite - 228,939
PSP - 27,499
PS2 - 22,703
Game Boy Advance SP - 2,751
Game Boy Micro - 1,791
X360 - 1,250
GameCube - 855
Nintendo DS - 320
Game Boy Advance - 22
Xbox - 0

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8272&page=25

August NPD...

NDS - 278,000
PS2 - 262,000
360 - 204,000
GBA - 156,000
PSP - 146,000
GCN - 41,000
XBX - 9,000

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=20067

The top selling hardware for August in Japan was the DS @ 826999 units. The top selling hardware for August in the US was the DS @ 278,000 units. Why would you want to take such a large market (Japan) out of the equation?

 

[Arwin]

This is interesting...The top selling hardware for August in Japan was the DS @ 826999 units. The top selling hardware for August in the US was the DS @ 278,000 units. Why would you want to take such a large market (Japan) out of the equation?

Technically, Japan is a smaller market than the U.S. *and* the E.U. Compare the number of GBA's sold in the U.S. to that in Japan, and you'll see a huge difference. However, the DS sells almost 3 times as well in Japan than in the U.S. The reason why I want to look separately at the markets, is because they are different markets. Each market, by itself, is sufficient to carry a platform and games, witness the number of Japan exclusive titles as well as titles that never make it to Japan or completely tank there.

So, yes, I like to watch trends in the different regions. I want to analyse which demographic buys what console, how much the trends follow each other or not, how much influence previous generations have and so on. For instance, the huge GBA install base in the U.S. looks likely to be the future wave of DS owners, so we can expect a huge boost for the DS to still come. But how big will it be, or will the PSP take a slice of that demographic? It's doing much better than I'd expected a newcomer to do, and probably benefits a lot from the Playstation home console platform. Conversely, when does everyone in Japan have a DS? It doesn't actually look that far off And what will happen then? Will the PSP become what the Xbox was in Japan, and lately was becoming in Europe - i.e. the favorite second console bought increasingly often by people who got bored with the PS2? How soon will that happen? Will either of the two come up with a new console earlier than expected as a result? (probably not necessary) What will Cell-Phone gaming do? What will the rise of GPS games on Cell-Phone do for games, etc. etc. etc.

There is a lot of interesting stuff going on in these markets, and I am trying to keep track of them, to learn how to predict the markets. Who knows one day I can become one of those rare analysts that get it right.

I am not one of those FBswho only has money for one console and then starts rooting for it to win teh console war. I'm not so much interested in which handheld is going to globally dominate. Being the heir to the GBA, the DS always looked the likely winner, just as the PS2 and PS3 have very good odds. It surely would have been interesting if Nintendo had lost that market overnight, but that kind of thing doesn't happen nearly as often as people think (probably because they all remember the N64).

No, the interesting bit is what will change, where, why, and how quickly. And that's what I'm trying to keep track of. Only looking at the DS's global sales ignores the fact that right now Japan skews perception significantly by making up half of the total sales, in a market that is rapidly declining in significance globally when it comes to total turnover.

Just look at the Xbox. The whole platform derives its significance for 66% or more from its success in the U.S. I was happy that the Xbox came to the market to contribute and improve competition on the market, and I own both an Xbox and a PS2.

And just so that we get it out of the way, yes, I do favor the PSP over the DS right now, I do favor the PS3 over the 360 right now, and I did favor the PS2 over the Xbox right now. But while I do care for the survival of the PSP platform, obviously, I don't need it to win over the DS. There's plenty of room for both platforms, and I think there'll be enough room for the 360, PS3 and Wii as well. And I will buy any or all of them as soon as they make it worth my while by fulfilling my entertainment needs in some form or other.

 

[Corwin_B]

The top selling hardware for August in Japan was the DS @ 826999 units. The top selling hardware for August in the US was the DS @ 278,000 units. Why would you want to take such a large market (Japan) out of the equation?

"Taking JP out of the equation" is the title of the first chapter of "PSP defense 101".

Presumably, the explanation is something along the line of "Well, those Japanese people are quirky and they only like games (or "non-games") that would never be successful in the West, so we can safely ignore that market. Now look at those 17 first months on the US market figures !". When presented with data showing the large Western success of DS staple "non-games" franchises (Brain Training, Nintendogs), anonymous PSP forum defender can look into chapter 2, which lists keywords such as "fad", "won't last", and "GTA/Madden/MGS will really kick the PSP into high gear, just wait !".

 

[Corwin_B]

How reliable are http://www.vgcharts.org/usayearlysum.php, Corwin, do you have any info on that?

From what I've seen, VGCharts.org is considered reliable. Their figures are rounded up since they do an interpolation between publisher data and raw data (Media Create, Famitsu, Dengeki, NPD...), but their data is statistically correct.

If I look at the software sales totals, that figure looks very healthy for both DS and PSP, but also suprisingly close ... 20.4 vs 19.0, that's impressive.

Not too surprising considering for the most part of the year PSP and DS were neck-to-neck in US sales, and that only with the release of the DSLite did the DS start distancing the PSP.

But the SW sales data you mention is interesting in the trends it shows :
2004 : DS 1.632 millions SW units, no PSP
2005 : 9.258 millions for DS, 11.225 millions for PSP , the PSP was tracking ahead of the DS SW-wise
2006 : 9.591 millions for DS, 7.838 millions for PSP

I know the year is not over, but 2005 was not complete for the PSP either (since it launched in March). Unless the PSP sells monsters amounts of SW before year's end, its tie ratio will have gone down in a significant way (with the userbase growing). The slowing down of PSP SW sales can't be seen as good news for the publishers, especially with the DS seeing a lot of hype, and the holiday sales buzz being probably dominated by the next-gen consoles...

Also, as I expected, Sony is taking a much smaller part of the cut so other publishers have so far managed to get some good sales in, and sales also seem to be more evenly distributed among the titles on the platform.

That's true. But don't forget that Western-based 3rd party PSP games are generally high-production values and some of the consoles greatest hits, whereas 3rd party Western DS games are more often that not horrible shovelware (which deserves tanking). I'm not sure wether a publisher prefers a shitty cartoon tie-in GBA-level DS game selling 150K, or a fully-valued PSP game selling 300K.

Anyway, the DS still has its biggest card to play in EU/US : the Pokemon brand is still very big, and may mark a mass exodus of the GBA player base toward NDS once Diamond/Pearl are released... Which would, sadly, turn into more undeserved sales for cartoon-based shovelware.

It confirms that if you take Japan out of the equation, the platforms are doing very equal. The question that remains is whether or not on the long term, the Japanese success is going to have a global effect.

With Japan-centric software doing as good as it's doing in Western regions, that's a very distinct possibility. We are not yet playing Pachinko or train simulators , but there's no denying that both BT and Nintendogs had a major success, especially in EU.

Some have expected this was an important factor for the PS2, though how much that affected the PS2 compared to the PSX I don't know.

The Japanese market is very important, because in addition to its own sales (BTW, you can't say that the JP market is becoming less important when in the case of handhelds it is the biggest center of growth), it brings to Western shores the kind of JP-centric games that many people like, be it "quirky" mini-games (such as Mario Party, Wario Ware, Super Monkey Ball or Feel the Magic), anime tie-ins (Naruto, Saint Seya... and many others), fighting games (Tekken, DoA...) and of course all those Japanese RPGs. Even if the bunch of sales came from EU/US, many of the defining titles of the PS1 and PS2 come from Japan : Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, Devil May Cry, Tekken... That's one of the reasons why the Japanese market matters a lot, and why MS is trying so hard there with the 360 : they don't need the sales, they need the developers to "flesh out" the XBox library.