Prophecy2k
Veteran
Gameplay is less and less limited by hardware power. The exception is large scale sandbox where you can go nuts with simulation. Even then, core gameplay will often scale fairly well too.
But linear fps? 1 v 1 fighter? Racing games? Puzzle? Action? Mostly power is about eye candy now, and it's memory that allows worlds to scale.
The rush to move beyond 8 x Jaguar in 2017 won't be so desperate for the majority of games out there.
Edit: Rise of the Tomb Raider and Forza Horizon 2 were made without consideration for the 360 downports. The 360 version still ended up being pretty damn good by the looks of things ...
This HAS been true between the PS3/X360 to PS4/XB1 generation, but was never true for any generational transition before then, and is possibly not necessarily true for all future ones.
If all we care about making is the same linear FPS/TPS/same old game genres going forward but with a little more eye-candy then yeah maybe that will be the case. It doesn't necessarily mean that it has to be however.
E.g. a game whose design is based around realistic and interactive fluid simulation. Probably would be a non-starter with current gen console's cruddy CPUs and limited capability for efficient GPU compute. A traditional console generational HW leap however (lets say conservatively 6-8x jump) could provide enough processing juice to allow you to make said game and it perform at a playable framerate. However, an iterative incremental HW model will make the development of said game impossible until the console on the bottom of the list of supported HW is powerful enough, i.e. could be in 10 to 15 years time.
The point is incremental HW upgrades will limit game development by limiting the performance available for more ambitious game projects, as well as push the potential to see those more ambitious ideas further into the future as business realities (i.e. the target platform installed base distribution) will delay those prospects significantly.
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