Anyone know the cost difference between brd discs and dvd?

[MechanizedDeath]

why are people bringing up the future-proofing of blu-ray when it was trumped around the time of its announcement, iirc, there are 2 optical mediums that have surpassed blu-rays storage space, 1 im sure of, hvd, can hold up to 1TB with transfer speeds of 1Gbps

for the argument of blu-ray having 6x storage over hd-dvd and the consumers should find it within reason to pay 6x the cost...it would only be reasonable if the majority of the storage space is filled

HVD is superior, and others that come from now on will be superior as well. But BRD and HD-DVD have gotten the manufacturers' and studios' attention right now, and going forward, one of these two will represent the future of the home video format, lest both get trounced by DVD. So the future-proofing is in regards to the ability of the two formats to satisfactorily support full-length movies at the highest tv resolution we'll be seeing in the next decade or so, 1080p. It's highly unlikely that anything will come out to surpass HDTV, especially 1080p. It's enough of a fight go get broadcasters to support 720p right now. PEACE.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

So why cant I as an HDTV owner walk into that same store and buy a player and some movies...months if not a year before the launch of the ps3 and bd-roms. I make that same case for me buying an xbox360, if we believe that graphically the two consoles will be the same, why should I wait those same extra months/year for HD. I want HD movies (I only have about 20 on D-VHS) and I want AA on my games, and I want it yesterday.

I think that is perfectly valid if you are of the "content doesn't matter" camp. But again, just from the list of 85 movies coming on HD-DVD I want at least 20 and some are my faves of certain genres. I know it has been mentioned on some sites that Sony has 1500 movies ready for BD, but I need a list to see which movies I want (read: I will probably buy a bd-rom).

A niche market, like the gaming industry in prior years, like DVDs when they came out, like HD now. HD-DVD has 3 very huge franchises, the LOTRs, the Matrices, and the Potters, the last time I checked those were huge money makers, that is not to say that it is > Star Wars, Spiderman, someone help me with some others...but to utterly dismiss them I think is faulty.

I guess what I am trying to say, is that when someone buys a movie, they aren't usually checking to see, "Is this the TL HD-DVD?", or "Is this the 200GB BD-ROM?" Obviously in the storage market place that is EXACTLY what they will do, and as it stands now BD wins out (assuming they don't have DL issues).

1. CE devices don't ship in the volume of game consoles. Assuming the PS3 sees the success of its predecessors, you're gonna have at least 100M BRD players on the market in 5 years. In the first couple years, you'll have like 20-30M. No HD-DVD player will sell that much. Matter of fact, it's highly doubtful the entire HD-DVD base gets anywhere near that amount. Not even if it is adopted as quickly as DVD. The PS2 composed a significant percentage of global DVD player sales for the first couple years of its life.

2. Content doesn't matter, b/c studios have ZERO loyalty. MGM, Columbia, Tristar...hell, even Sony Pictures will all release HD-DVD versions of their movies if HD-DVD emerges as the format winner. The alignment of studios right now is a bullet-point for both camps, nothing more. Studios make their money by selling videos, not from hardware. The winning format is meaningless to their bottom line. If BRD wins, you think Universal is gonna keep their movies in HD-DVD format only? The alignment of studios right now is tentative IMO. They are hedging their bets, but when the dust settles, expect EVERYONE to be publishing movies in the format that's leading the market. This is assuming either can prove viable in the face of the strong DVD market. This is why unification is important. Without it, both format are likely to fail miserably...IMO. PEACE.

 

[NavNucST3]

Mech,

I don't necessarily disagree with any of your points except, I used to believe the PS2 sold DVDs, now I don't believe that after looking at some numbers.

My point is not about 5 years from now, I don't really give a damn about 5 years from now, because we could go on and on about 10 years and 15, so on and so forth. Also 5 years from now, won't we have (at least) two more consoles, with probably another format, or one blooming.

What I am talking about is pure selfish instant gratification. For me its the content, why would I wait years for there to be a declared winner to get the movies I want, and then ?hope the studios re-release in the winning format?

 

[MechanizedDeath]

Mech,

I don't necessarily disagree with any of your points except, I used to believe the PS2 sold DVDs, now I don't believe that after looking at some numbers.

My point is not about 5 years from now, I don't really give a damn about 5 years from now, because we could go on and on about 10 years and 15, so on and so forth. Also 5 years from now, won't we have (at least) two more consoles, with probably another format, or one blooming.

What I am talking about is pure selfish instant gratification. For me its the content, why would I wait years for there to be a declared winner to get the movies I want, and then ?hope the studios re-release in the winning format?

That's the stance some early-adopters will take. It's not like HD-DVD will sell zero units or anything. But the winner of the format war won't be decided by early-adopters. And adoption rate is unlikely to be anywhere near significant for a good number of years. It's questionable if either format will ever get off the ground TBH. That's why I look long-term, b/c short-term, it's gonna be a bunch of BRD players sold (PS3), but with limited HDTV penetration, I don't know if actual movie sales (for either format) will mean much at all in the face of DVDs.

I don't know if there are enough people like you to help either format. BRD on PS3 seems more like a trojan horse than a driving force IMO. So when HDTVs reach a point where they can drive HD movie sales, BRD is likely to have more paying customers lined up. Only because a game console can sell in volumes that would take a combined market to reach. But this is where I feel I'm venturing into the land of conjecture rather than supported conclusions. Er...or something like that.

 

[randycat99]

It has been posted on AVS forum by people who work on the encoding of HD movies for Microsoft, that 1080p takes up no more, or even less space on disc than does 1080i.

If you consider 1080i has half the amount of data you know this is either impossible or comes together with lower quality (in respect to the resolution).

Just to clear up this issue, it bears noting that resolution AND framerate needs to be given before there is a meaningful context. 1080p has x amount of data rate, but at what framerate? At 1080p30, it should have comparable date rate to 1080i60. Being that it is primarily film movies that will be involved in this forthcoming 1080p format, that suggests 1080p24. So, actually it is not impossible at all that data storage needs could be equal or even better than 1080i60. Now if there will be any real 1080p60 material to come in the future (HD Indie productions, IMAX transfers, etc.?...plus hell could freeze over and Hollywood at large gets off its sorry ass and departs from p24, itself), that would certainly benefit from a more robust storage format. However, that is even further off into the future than even 1080p24 which is just on the horizon for now.

 

[Sis]

It's questionable if either format will ever get off the ground TBH. That's why I look long-term, b/c short-term, it's gonna be a bunch of BRD players sold (PS3), but with limited HDTV penetration, I don't know if actual movie sales (for either format) will mean much at all in the face of DVDs.

Completely agree with this. Who knows if a physical distribution model will even still be valid in the time necessary for a high-def disc format to get traction (asssuming a +5 year time line, based on the DVD timeline but you'll want to add a year or two, or more, given the low penetration of HD televisions). Looking out 7 years, I'd be really disappointed if HD video-on demand in a subscription model (ala Napster, Rhapsody, or Yahoo! Music) hasn't arrived market wide.

.Sis

 

[_leech_]

They are currently in the process of encoding movies at 1080p for HD-DVD.

There won't be an issue with storage of most 1080p movies.

That's false:

The final HD DVD specification is nearly complete, with no major disagreements remaining that might slow up the schedule (including the all-important Digital Rights Management). For those hoping for 1080p from HD DVD, don't hold your breath—Toshiba confirmed that the data is recorded on HD DVD in 1080i, and there are no plans to change that. The players have already been designed for 1080i discs, and it would take a redesign to enable them to handle 1080p discs, even if there were plans to produce them.

First post here, btw. Hey everyone

 

[randycat99]

Interesting find, but if it is anything like DVD's 480i60 format, the progressive frame can still be achieved for 24p film sources, ultimately. The 24p is so "ponderous", they are able to encode an effective full progressive frame within the series of "mere" interlaced fields. Simple combination of the fields essentially yields the original progressive frame. So the disc should be able to carry the necessary information. All that matters is the player bothers to make the output available (and other industry politics aside, hopefully). So 1080i60 need not be a necessary impediment to 1080p24 content. They are, in a way, compatible.

It would seem to be a pisser for 1080p60 programming, but can't really be upset over it at this time or even in the near to medium future if there is absolutely no programming to speak of, in the first place. In one way, it takes a load off the data capacity issue (if 1080i60 is to be the upper limit for its applications). In another, it puts a technical limit on a format, where a bit of "headroom" for future growth would seem smarter for something we hope will live a reasonable lifespan as a standard.

 

[PC-Engine]

The Digital Bits said it best awhile ago when he explained why he felt BRD was the superior format to HD-DVD.

He stated quite simply that HD-DVD is a manufacturer's format, and BRD is a consumer's format; each is more beneficial to those groups. He felt HD-DVD simply doesn't have the legs to last long enough to not need yet another new optical format in 8-10 years, and the fact that the few companies/studios left backing HD-DVD is actually a slight against consumers.

To put it simply, HD-DVD is DVD 1.5, and BRD is DVD 2.0.

Most consumers don't care about BR's capacity advantage or future capacity increases. They just care about movies. Few consumers actually care about 100GB WORM BR discs that may be released in 2007/08. BRD is more like DVD version 1.91 beta while HD DVD is more like DVD version 2.0 final.

The "slight" to consumers is in the lack of future-proofing with HD-DVD. 3L HD-DVD can't match 2L BRD. Lord help HD-DVD if Sony/Panasonic manage to bump the final spec to 30GB/layer too, b/c then a 1L disc will match a 2L HD-DVD.

Most consumers don't care about that stuff, only the geeks/nerds do...

Unless Toshiba buckles and agrees to the unified format (and you damn well know it's them who are holding it back), I predict that Warner/New Line and Universal/Dreamworks will jump ship sometime next year.

What makes you think Toshiba is Holding Sony back from anything?

AFAIK, Sony has no plans to launch anything Blu-Ray in the US until the PS3 launch, while Toshiba and Warner expect to have equipment and software in store around November of this year.

If anything, I bet it is Sony stalling with unification talks to delay HD-DVD until the launch of the PS3 is closer.

Also, Warner is about the last company who will ever jump ship and go to Blu-Ray as they have a vested interest in the HD-DVD format.

Exactly. Wishful thinking isn't going to magically cause X format to become the winner.

 

[Sean*O]

What purpose does that serve? Sony would want to iron out all the details as soon as possible so they can start mass production as soon as possible. Stalling serves them no purpose. They may not be compromising, but I seriously doubt they're stalling. PEACE.

What makes you think they won't start production anyway?

Like I said.. Sony is already locked into a schedule to release BRD in America. They will launch it in the PS3.

HD-DVD is on schedule to release before BRD in America. That is an advantage in HD-DVDs favor. Sony would be well served to wave the white flag of format unification to the HD-DVD camp hoping to stall the release of HD-DVD until the PS3 is much closer to launch, thus taking away or minimalizing one of HD-DVDs prime advantages.

They could be talking of unification now, then suddenly withdraw from unification talks when they are good and ready to start production, with the intent of torpedoing HD-DVDs early launch. Do you really think that if Sony was ready to go into mass production with BRD's that they would put it off and talk of unification?

 

[Sean*O]

If you consider 1080i has half the amount of data you know this is either impossible or comes together with lower quality (in respect to the resolution).
Or the encoder is garbage.. should try Mpeg4 instead of WMV maybe?

Half the amount of data if you are talking about 1080p60 vs 1080i60, but I was not.. not sure why you would think that.. maybe I wasn't clear? Well, anyway,

HD movies will be 1080p24 (24 frames per second progressive) because they are shot at 24frames per second.

1080i = 60 fields per second at 1/2 1080p resolution, interlaced together. That works out to 1080i60 requiring more data than 1080p24.

Storing movies on HD-DVD in 1080p won't be an issue on either format.

 

[mckmas8808]

HD-DVD is on schedule to release before BRD in America. That is an advantage in HD-DVDs favor

Sean did you forget that the Blu-ray format is already out in Japan? It may not be a leader but it is out.

 

[PC-Engine]

HD-DVD is on schedule to release before BRD in America. That is an advantage in HD-DVDs favor

Sean did you forget that the Blu-ray format is already out in Japan? It may not be a leader but it is out.

Yeah but it can't play any BR movies so they're basically overpriced BR recorders.

 

[Sean*O]

That's false:

Quote:
The final HD DVD specification is nearly complete, with no major disagreements remaining that might slow up the schedule (including the all-important Digital Rights Management). For those hoping for 1080p from HD DVD, don't hold your breath—Toshiba confirmed that the data is recorded on HD DVD in 1080i, and there are no plans to change that. The players have already been designed for 1080i discs, and it would take a redesign to enable them to handle 1080p discs, even if there were plans to produce them.

That article is more than a month old. This was posted on AVS from a guy who works at Microsoft. It's one of many on this subject.

I think I am starting to sound like a broken record on this front . But at least for HD-DVD and movies we are helping Warner encode, are all in 1080p native on the disc. So at worst, you would have to buy another HD-DVD player (or use a PC) to get 1080p. No need to buy the discs again.

Amir
Microsoft

Here is the thread.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=5844889#post5844889

 

[Sean*O]

Sean did you forget that the Blu-ray format is already out in Japan? It may not be a leader but it is out.

Hey Mckmas. *edit* sorry, I misspelled your name.

Nah, I diddn't forget that, which is why I specified in America, which is where the big money will come from with the movies.

On top of that, they still have not gotten BRD cheap enough to drop it in the PS3 today and sell the system anywhere near $400.

 

[NavNucST3]

That's false:

Quote:
The final HD DVD specification is nearly complete, with no major disagreements remaining that might slow up the schedule (including the all-important Digital Rights Management). For those hoping for 1080p from HD DVD, don't hold your breath—Toshiba confirmed that the data is recorded on HD DVD in 1080i, and there are no plans to change that. The players have already been designed for 1080i discs, and it would take a redesign to enable them to handle 1080p discs, even if there were plans to produce them.

That article is more than a month old. This was posted on AVS from a guy who works at Microsoft. It's one of many on this subject.

I think I am starting to sound like a broken record on this front . But at least for HD-DVD and movies we are helping Warner encode, are all in 1080p native on the disc. So at worst, you would have to buy another HD-DVD player (or use a PC) to get 1080p. No need to buy the discs again.

Amir
Microsoft

Here is the thread.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=5844889#post5844889

Funny, I was going to quote him as well.

My only issue with the PS3, is HDCP, for those that havent had the joy of trying to get two devices to work together because of HDCP, it can be a walk in the park or it can be a demon spawn from hell. I would speculate that there are going to be tvs that just wont like the hdmi from the ps3, it may require turning on devices in a certain manner, which can be a pain but by the 30th time it would be habit, or it may just require returning the ps3 or getting another tv. By the same token I am not sure if HDCP would allow me to stream an hd-dvd/bd-rom from XPMC to the x360, (especially with component out) either.

*note* For those that take this as a slant againt HDMI/PS3, I love hdmi, I hate HDCP (with a passion).

 

[one]

I would speculate that there are going to be tvs that just wont like the hdmi from the ps3, it may require turning on devices in a certain manner

Do you mean DVI + HDCP or what? HDMI is HDMI, nothing else.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

HD movies will be 1080p24 (24 frames per second progressive) because they are shot at 24frames per second.

1080i = 60 fields per second at 1/2 1080p resolution, interlaced together. That works out to 1080i60 requiring more data than 1080p24.

Storing movies on HD-DVD in 1080p won't be an issue on either format.






On top of that, they still have not gotten BRD cheap enough to drop it in the PS3 today and sell the system anywhere near $400.

The problem is that 1080p@24Hz with MPEG-2 is probably pushing that 36Mbps bitrate. You will fill 15GB with a 2.5hr movie. Now let's throw in the extras, and you're now onto DL. Not a problem really, but BRD will do it in a single-layer. Both can handle 1080p, one does it much better. What about when you want to go with more content, like seasons @ 720p. Who's more likely to go multi-disc here? BRD is the better product, hands down, and will offer much more flexibility for the road ahead. A DL BRD will still do more than a 3L HD-DVD, and so on. When the argument of cost gets thrown around (and frivolous as it may be), how much attention ever gets paid to the capacity deficiencies of HD-DVD compared to BRD? I continue to be boggled by the defense of HD-DVD.

As for the PS3, the drive is not the cost leader on that system. For one, the RSX isn't done, which would prevent the system from being put on shelves even if the BRD cost $10. Second, the cost of drives is always overplayed. What goes into an optical drive? A spindle motor, controller logic and a laser. The laser unit is already expected to be a single-unit, like the PS2's. It also requires less power b/c (a) it's a ROM drive and (b) BRD lasers need less power than HD-DVD IIRC (correct me if I'm wrong, please). The spindle motor is just a frickin motor. A dime a dozen. It's not like the spec require fluid bearings or anything (not that I've read). The logic is taken care of, it's the Cell+IOP. There are reasons stand-alone players cost a fortune. They have rewriting and seperate logic, plus manufacturers need to sell them with a markup in order to make any money. PS3 will be sold at a loss.

I know some expect the BRD to be some big cost factor for the PS3, but neither the CD nor DVD drives made much of a difference with the PS1 and PS2. And in mass production with the rest of the standalone drives Sony will be making, component costs will drop like nobodies business. Remember how quickly DVDs were commoditized. When you're making millions of these parts, the cost goes down quick. OTOH, Cell and RSX and the RAM they need will probably scale a lot slower than the optical drive.

This is all in my opinion, but as an engineer, I don't see what's so fancy about an optical drive. Sony will want to recoup the investment costs of BRD, but since this is a long-term investment, it's not like they're gonna front-load it all on the PS3. That would be pretty stupid. They had BluRay locked in as a PS3 spec from early last year for a reason. Even with the unification squabbles and uncertainty of production costs, it was never an issue whether or not it would be in the machine. That's telling IMO. PEACE.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think the cost of BlueRay (and HDDVD) comes in the availibility of blue lasers, that are still a relatively new manufacturing technology. I don't know what such a laser costs and I seriously doubt it'll be a substantial cost in a $400 player ($300 laser diode? ) but that's the pricey bit. Also I don't know how the controller motors are priced as they'll need to be a lot more exact than those for a red laser (BTW: It boggles me how such accuracy is possible, moving a head tiny little distances. Technology amazes me!)

 

[PC-Engine]

What about when you want to go with more content, like seasons @ 720p. Who's more likely to go multi-disc here?

That's a pretty weak argument since nobody watches a whole seasonn in one sitting. HD DVD and BR will be so close in capacity that mult-discs will be irrelevant.

BRD is the better product, hands down, and will offer much more flexibility for the road ahead. A DL BRD will still do more than a 3L HD-DVD, and so on.

Sure but not by much and surely not enough for any person to care other than people who needs something to brag about.