What is the future of Nvidia Graphics?
This story starts with AMD's newly launched Unified Gaming Strategy and it's significance.
The basic strategy is to build the programming and toolset infrastructure to facilitate rapid and easy porting between the Xbox One, PS4 and PCs, concentrating on HSA. Work on this can be expected to be going on no only with EA/Dice/Frostbite, but with all major game engines and AAA developers and publishers with ALL PC game engines and developers getting on board as will become apparent. Inherent with the emphasis on HSA is that Kaveri and 8xxx graphics are a particular focus of the PC optimization.
The crux of the strategy may be contained in this AMD Executive's quote at Computex "It is absolutely the end goal to create a development ecosystem where first-party games will be written to the games consoles first ... but providing the capability to leverage that investment into PC market, into mobile form factors, into cloud. Definitely there's that desire." Not delineated but surely included are third party games. AMD is essentially making the publishers and developers "an offer they can't refuse". An offer that will put a whole lot of black into their bottom lines.
Consoles first = NO initial Intel or Nvidia optimizations, ALL initial optimizations done for AMD. 'Leverage that investment into PC markets' = optimizing for console HSA APUs already done -> highly optimized PC based HSA APU/GPU ports will be fast and easy and done first. Intel and Nvidia will suck hind teat.
"into mobile form factors" -> upcoming x86 gaming centric tablets and laptops and in a couple of years when AMD will have it's HSA ARM APUs in play for Android desktop and mobile devices, also under the umbrella of their 'United Gaming Strategy' with an ecosystem that will allow publishers to port to those APUs and devices as easily as they will be porting to x86 devices, desktop and mobile.
"into cloud" -> With AMD building out this highly integrated and synergistic gaming ecosystem which will include an array of Sea Micro x86 and ARM APU based servers and associated graphics cards, Nvidia can probably kiss GRID goodbye.
The only way Project Shield made sense to me was as part of an Nvidia effort to secure a Steam Box contract. It being tossed out into a relative vacuum tells me Valve ended up going with an AMD HSA APU for Steam Box. It's for damn sure that's what any developers and publishers Gabe approached were all but demanding. Developers whose support Gabe said were critical to the success of Steam Box. So there's that. That would be the final nail in Nvidia's consumer graphics future.
Developers and publishers have a vested interest in AMD pushing Intel and Nvidia into the background in gaming. Once the HSA porting infrastructure is in place ALL future AMD HSA APUs and GPUs will not only be be dead easy to port to but will provide relatively stellar gaming experiences on even entry level PCs. This would hold true for AMD HSA based next next gen consoles in 5 or 6 years, which would retain full hardware based backward compatibility. AMD is locking in console and PC gaming far into the future here. This is as good as it gets for publishers and developers. Add an AMD HSA APU Steam Box into the mix and it's a solid hat trick. Nvidia will increasingly be standing in the cold looking in as it did with Lara Croft. How embarrassing was Nvidia's whining about not getting access to the game until after it released? What a huge diss. Then there's the agreement with EA/Dice to optimize the Frostbite Engine for AMD hardware ... how many other game engines is AMD working on? Cry Engine 3 for sure, Unreal 4 also, How many other developers and publishers is AMD in bed with? Nvidia is already being considered irrelevant by developers. Where will it be in two years? Three years? Maxwell would be an orphan. Publishers would just want Nvidia to go away and consider Intel sufficient to keep AMD honest.
With working Kaveri silicon almost certainly in the hands of the major publishers/developers and being optimized for, it can be expected Kaveri (and paired 8xxx cards) will generate some eye opening review numbers on next gen games and a similarly eye opening cost/performance advantages over Intel/Nvidia. Kaveri could almost overnight become THE hottest ticket in PC gaming, and following generations of APUs and GPUs maintain that lead into the foreseeable future. There is evidence AMD moved some 2014 system integration element to Kaveri, namely full HSA integration and additive graphics capability with 8xxx AIBs. If so and Kaveri does become the hot ticket gaming processor, going with an Nvidia AIB would mean leaving substantial hardware AND game software optimization performance on the table that going with a comparably priced AMD AIB would not. Effectively another 'offer they can't refuse' to Kaveri buyers.
In a year there will be a comprehensive and growing HSA based software ecosystem and a deep and growing pool of programmers becoming ever more proficient with HSA and AMD APUs.
A software ecosystem and talent pool that the professional graphics market can tap into.
AMD really is doing something stunning and game changing here and as time passes and AMD's hegemony grows it really is looking more and more likely HSA will be the future of computing ... with AMD hardware leading the charge.
Adobe appears to already be on board that train. The rest of the professional players can't be far behind. AMD is not just holding a handful of aces, but with Rory Read at the helm is looking like a true player more than capable of executing and being a winner. The gaming market definitely recognizes it, the professional market appears to be doing the same.
In three years AMD could probably add a 'Unified Professional Graphics Strategy' to it's 'Unified Gaming Strategy'.
That leaves the JHH Titanic little choice in the direction it will take in those markets as it slow motion collides with the AMD iceberg. That leaves Android. And licensing. Good luck with that.
This story starts with AMD's newly launched Unified Gaming Strategy and it's significance.
The basic strategy is to build the programming and toolset infrastructure to facilitate rapid and easy porting between the Xbox One, PS4 and PCs, concentrating on HSA. Work on this can be expected to be going on no only with EA/Dice/Frostbite, but with all major game engines and AAA developers and publishers with ALL PC game engines and developers getting on board as will become apparent. Inherent with the emphasis on HSA is that Kaveri and 8xxx graphics are a particular focus of the PC optimization.
The crux of the strategy may be contained in this AMD Executive's quote at Computex "It is absolutely the end goal to create a development ecosystem where first-party games will be written to the games consoles first ... but providing the capability to leverage that investment into PC market, into mobile form factors, into cloud. Definitely there's that desire." Not delineated but surely included are third party games. AMD is essentially making the publishers and developers "an offer they can't refuse". An offer that will put a whole lot of black into their bottom lines.
Consoles first = NO initial Intel or Nvidia optimizations, ALL initial optimizations done for AMD. 'Leverage that investment into PC markets' = optimizing for console HSA APUs already done -> highly optimized PC based HSA APU/GPU ports will be fast and easy and done first. Intel and Nvidia will suck hind teat.
"into mobile form factors" -> upcoming x86 gaming centric tablets and laptops and in a couple of years when AMD will have it's HSA ARM APUs in play for Android desktop and mobile devices, also under the umbrella of their 'United Gaming Strategy' with an ecosystem that will allow publishers to port to those APUs and devices as easily as they will be porting to x86 devices, desktop and mobile.
"into cloud" -> With AMD building out this highly integrated and synergistic gaming ecosystem which will include an array of Sea Micro x86 and ARM APU based servers and associated graphics cards, Nvidia can probably kiss GRID goodbye.
The only way Project Shield made sense to me was as part of an Nvidia effort to secure a Steam Box contract. It being tossed out into a relative vacuum tells me Valve ended up going with an AMD HSA APU for Steam Box. It's for damn sure that's what any developers and publishers Gabe approached were all but demanding. Developers whose support Gabe said were critical to the success of Steam Box. So there's that. That would be the final nail in Nvidia's consumer graphics future.
Developers and publishers have a vested interest in AMD pushing Intel and Nvidia into the background in gaming. Once the HSA porting infrastructure is in place ALL future AMD HSA APUs and GPUs will not only be be dead easy to port to but will provide relatively stellar gaming experiences on even entry level PCs. This would hold true for AMD HSA based next next gen consoles in 5 or 6 years, which would retain full hardware based backward compatibility. AMD is locking in console and PC gaming far into the future here. This is as good as it gets for publishers and developers. Add an AMD HSA APU Steam Box into the mix and it's a solid hat trick. Nvidia will increasingly be standing in the cold looking in as it did with Lara Croft. How embarrassing was Nvidia's whining about not getting access to the game until after it released? What a huge diss. Then there's the agreement with EA/Dice to optimize the Frostbite Engine for AMD hardware ... how many other game engines is AMD working on? Cry Engine 3 for sure, Unreal 4 also, How many other developers and publishers is AMD in bed with? Nvidia is already being considered irrelevant by developers. Where will it be in two years? Three years? Maxwell would be an orphan. Publishers would just want Nvidia to go away and consider Intel sufficient to keep AMD honest.
With working Kaveri silicon almost certainly in the hands of the major publishers/developers and being optimized for, it can be expected Kaveri (and paired 8xxx cards) will generate some eye opening review numbers on next gen games and a similarly eye opening cost/performance advantages over Intel/Nvidia. Kaveri could almost overnight become THE hottest ticket in PC gaming, and following generations of APUs and GPUs maintain that lead into the foreseeable future. There is evidence AMD moved some 2014 system integration element to Kaveri, namely full HSA integration and additive graphics capability with 8xxx AIBs. If so and Kaveri does become the hot ticket gaming processor, going with an Nvidia AIB would mean leaving substantial hardware AND game software optimization performance on the table that going with a comparably priced AMD AIB would not. Effectively another 'offer they can't refuse' to Kaveri buyers.
In a year there will be a comprehensive and growing HSA based software ecosystem and a deep and growing pool of programmers becoming ever more proficient with HSA and AMD APUs.
A software ecosystem and talent pool that the professional graphics market can tap into.
AMD really is doing something stunning and game changing here and as time passes and AMD's hegemony grows it really is looking more and more likely HSA will be the future of computing ... with AMD hardware leading the charge.
Adobe appears to already be on board that train. The rest of the professional players can't be far behind. AMD is not just holding a handful of aces, but with Rory Read at the helm is looking like a true player more than capable of executing and being a winner. The gaming market definitely recognizes it, the professional market appears to be doing the same.
In three years AMD could probably add a 'Unified Professional Graphics Strategy' to it's 'Unified Gaming Strategy'.
That leaves the JHH Titanic little choice in the direction it will take in those markets as it slow motion collides with the AMD iceberg. That leaves Android. And licensing. Good luck with that.
