AMD: Navi Speculation, Rumours and Discussion [2019-2020]

Hope I suppose.

 

Do we know that navi2x are rdna 2 ? If so, I missed something. My understanding was that big navi was coming like Q1 2020, while rdna2 was more like Q4.

 

I didn't say it was logical. Its emotional. Some just want AMD to give nVidia what-for, blatantly disregarding business sense. To see their favourite underdog do what they've wanted to see them do for roughly a decade now. I guess some just conflate their hopes with reality and latch onto whatever seemingly makes a case for it. A kind of wilful ignorance and cognitive dissonance humans are very adept at.

 

It was timing for me. I had the impression that rdna2 was far from ready, hence the big navi rdna1. Hey if rdna 2 is here soon, it's great.

 

The timeline has been a question for a while now. Last year slides had it vaguely stretched over both this year and next with no official word one way or another. One supposes this means AMD just wasn't sure under a year ago, and so had to avoid any firm commitment for both PR and legal reasons.

However if we look at TSMC's probable capacity, 7nm+ isn't nearly as popular as they'd no doubt wanted it to be with AMD and one other vendor the only confirmed users; to the point where 6nm (just being proved now or somesuch) was probably a reaction to all their hyper expensive EUV machines going underutilized. So it's highly unlikely there'll be some manufacturing bottleneck for RDNA2. That only leaves a design bottleneck, and while no doubt huge semi-custom orders from MS and Sony have priority, with millions of each console needing to be manufactured the final designs will still have to be done a good time in advance. Ultimately meaning I'd bet a least one RDNA 2 GPU gets out this year, though likely it'll be some non custom riff off either the PS5 or XS designs, as AMD is sure taking its time to put out different RDNA 1 GPU configs.

 

They don't have to use discrete cards. It doesn't seem prudent for AMD to undertake a bunch of re-implementations and reverification across varying hardware blocks to accommodate a bunch of different designs at 7nm. All three products (XB, PS and AMD PC gpus) sharing the same basic hardware blocks means a bunch of work and time saved.

 

I agree. The only reasonable chance of a big RDNA1 chip would be in devkits for internal usage at Microsoft and AMD I'd think at this point. Microsoft wouldn't care paying for a few wafers to get early access to their Xbox series X chip even if at 1/3 to 2/3 speeds of final product.

 

The dies will probably be close-ish to some consumer GPU as well, as whatever is good for a console would probably work for a consumer GPU. But the main problems I can see are design time and foundry time. I'd be surprised if AMD didn't have rather strict contracts with both MS and Sony to deliver X units by Y time. They might earn more money off selling to consumers directly, but penalties surely mean Sony and MS get priority for both making sure the designs are done on time and the consoles are delivered on time.

Anyway the timelines they released last year vaguely mention "2021" and "RDNA2" in the same slide. I mean, I'd suspect they're definitely planning and hoping on RDNA 2 consumer cards this year. But if it were to somehow go to, say, a stockholder lawsuit the below slide could probably be argued to include 2021, so one can see it as a kind of "just in case..." hedge.

 

If you actually look at the timeline, the midpoint of the line is 2019 (when RDNA came out). GCN is where 2018 would be. RDNA 2 is where 2020 would be.

Whether RDNA 2 comes out in 2020 or not, who knows, but that's where AMD's roadmap has it. Remember when NAVI was first shown? It was planned for 2018 according to their roadmap slide...and we all know how that turned out.

Regards,
SB

 

It's the first time I notice that RDNA2 is only mentioned in the context of 7nm+, I am guessing RDNA 2 will only appear when AMD starts shipping some products on 7nm+.

 

Lisa Su confirms that AMD GPUs in 2020 will have Ray Tracing, although she keeps somewhat downplaying it's importance for some reason (despite mentioning that the two consoles will have it).

Also she confirms AMD will release a high end Navi in 2020, although she is also being a little coy about it's competitiveness with the 2080Ti.

Also on a different note, she admits 7nm wafer supply is tight.

 

Hm... well, I don't agree with her on "it is still very early" (regarding RT). Just "early", maybe, but not that "very". Not at this point. RT is actually a real thing for many, many developers, either because they already launched games with some sort of RT options or because they're planning to do it soon.

I wonder why so much mystery...

 

I think that's more of an inference on your part than what she actually said. Ray tracing in 2020? Yes. High end Navi? Yes. But she cleverly left out any mention of wether or not it would be released this year or not.

 

I don't think there was anything vague about her statement.

 

It'd make sense for AMD to launch an entire lineup and go for the high end with RDNA2. I'm just cautious about reading too much into it. And I think with good reason. "Confirmed" is a strong word just because Su mentioned RDNA2 (as evidence by RT) for 2020 and "the importance of high end" in the same interview. Not trying to be a downer, but both here and on Reddit there has been a continual cycle of hope, anger, and feelings of downright betrayal over the lack of high end products. I'm waiting until we see and hear something more solid than a carefully worded interview answer, and I think that'd be a good strategy for most.