Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*

[MrFox]

For what markets? Consumers would not respond well to the death of BD only 8 or so years into it's lackluster adoption. I can see it dominating in the archival storage market if the proposed life cycles stand up to scrutiny (I mean is it really so beyond us to improve upon LTO-x tape?).

I was being sarcastic... 2012... I followed holo disk development, and it's been promised for the "next year" for the last 20 years. Two years ago people kept bringing back holo disk as making bluray obsolete real-soon-now, and I kept saying it's not going to happen. The future is successive technological increments to bluray, which makes the drive compatible and the same price. Advancements are on the replication side, but for a distribution format to happen (ROM replication) they are waiting for either a game console or a 4k film format to use it. Cost of stamped replication is not increasing much per disk if they stay at 2 layers, whether it's a DVD or a Bluray up to the next 1TB bluray.

Facebook moved to Bluray archival. Amazon Glacier allegedly on BDXL, and the new archival formats in the next years is incremental features for Bluray to get 300, 500 and later 1TB capacity. There's still no Holo Disk anywhere.

http://arstechnica.com/information-...ay-discs-to-create-petabytes-of-cold-storage/

http://storagemojo.com/2014/04/25/amazons-glacier-secret-bdxl/

Rewritable disk media is pretty much dead in the consumer space, for good reasons. Bluray is very much alive for console distribution format. If PS5/XB2 ever have physical media it will be one of the successive bluray capacity increases.

 

[Blazkowicz]

Interesting write up, MrFox.
Then there's the fact that games are bought as christmas and birthday presents.

Much better to give a disc in a box in christmas wrap than a tiny piece of paper or plastic with a barcode or numbers that you can enter after logging on an internet account to get fake money to unlock a game (and the fake money is just like real money, except you have to call a lawyer or consumers union if something goes wrong in place of your bank/credit card company)

 

[-tkf-]

As much as the general "omg stream is the future lol what optical hahaha" opinion may be not totally off for our little world Blu-Ray is afaik the only real competition to LTO tapes, and it offers some things that LTO can't.

http://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/cat-datastorage/cat-opticaldiscarchive/

50 years of life vs LTO 15 to 30 years.

Maybe we get lucky and Sony comes out with a 100 or 200GB disc, i would like that.

 

[MrFox]

As much as the general "omg stream is the future lol what optical hahaha" opinion may be not totally off for our little world Blu-Ray is afaik the only real competition to LTO tapes, and it offers some things that LTO can't.

http://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/cat-datastorage/cat-opticaldiscarchive/

50 years of life vs LTO 15 to 30 years.

Maybe we get lucky and Sony comes out with a 100 or 200GB disc, i would like that.

They are...

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2106...0gb-optical-discs-for-enterprise-storage.html

Sony and Panasonic have developed a next-generation optical disc for enterprise storage with an initial capacity of 300GB. Dubbed the Archival Disc, it will have the same dimensions as current Blu-ray discs and will also be readable for at least 50 years.
The disc will have three layers per side. It’s expected to hit the market in 2015, with the initial capacity later expanded to 500GB and then 1TB.
The higher capacities will be achieved through signal-processing technologies including multi-level recording technology, the companies said.

Physically, at 300GB those drives are mostly the same as the current BD50 drives, with more DSP work needed, and some analog stuff for amplifier EQing, lower noise, etc... it's what I was talking about last year. The incremental improvements were well planned, and it's happening. ROM production, OTOH, needs an application to kick off, film or console, there's little else that can work.

EDIT: Last I heard from the rumors, the negotiations for a 4K disc format have failed to reach a consensus, but the BDA said it's happening...
http://www.twice.com/news/news/blu-ray-disc-association-4k-ultra-hd-blu-ray-way/43097

 

[function]

Interesting digging up this old thread. Nothing changed, all the issues which were talked about still remain. Flash is still nowhere near a cost effective medium. But Holo disk is being released for sure in 2012, so that will definitely make bluray obsolete.

I was so hopeful for some way to bypass last gen limitations of performance, size and noise. Flash distribution, or flash cache for most recently loaded games, was going to change the way games accessed data. IT was going to allow game designs that didn't require massive caching (and the time to do that) and avoided pop in and loading screens and artificial environment fragmentation and visible texels in games ...

Instead, we got last gen but with the massive band aid of huge gobs of ram for caching. Oh, and PRTs that no-one's using.

No doubt the solution that Sony and MS both chose is the most realistic and practical so I can't complain too much, but damn, it's boring to keep having the same limitations and tradeoffs.

 

[SlimJim]

ps4 should have used AD; Archival Disc.

Think about it:
PS1: CD
PS2: DVD
PS3: BD
PS4: BD

does something seem out of place?
That's what I'm saying, it should have looked like this:

PS1: CD
PS2: DVD
PS3: BD
PS4: AD

FF XV could have 4K (pre)rendered cutscenes.
Same with Uncharted 4..
Imagine: Uncharted 4K.

 

[3dilettante]

They can continue the trend from the PS3 where launch is delayed by a year because of the optical format.
Because it's next-gen, the delay would probably expand by the appropriate next-gen multiplier.

 

[SlimJim]

that might be true, but let's be honest:

that logo alone would be worth it

 

[jlippo]

FF XV could have 4K (pre)rendered cutscenes.
Same with Uncharted 4..
Imagine: Uncharted 4K.

What stops them now?
Ps4 copies the BD data to HDD anyway, so I doubt anything stops them to use 4BD disks for a game..

 

[Shifty Geezer]

FF XV could have 4K (pre)rendered cutscenes.
Same with Uncharted 4..
Imagine: Uncharted 4K.

This is very silly. The business case isn't made on continuing a naming convention. Evaluate the added cost and problems of adopting the new technology in relation to the benefits. clearly, there are next to zero benefits. 4k cutscenes for 1080p games (hopefully rendering in-game cutscenes more these days) for the few 4k set owners? So on cutscenes, the console switches from 1080p to 4k? Or is the console now going to be upscaling games to 4k instead of the TV?

4k is niche. It's not supported in games. 4k rendered CGs just for PS4 adds cost for no good reason (it's not like the game will sell loads more by using 4k video). Games aren't going to need the storage because the production cost in creating that much content would be astronomical, and games are all copied to HDD anyway making the disc just a distribution medium.

 

[SlimJim]

...

I agree; it doesn't look like it's worth the hassle; especially looking at the extra enormous costs. To be honest I just thought the logo was cool
BD will probably be the last physical distribution method anyway..

Looking back at FF XIII and it's internal 1080P upscaling, combined with native 1080P CGI/pre-rendered cutscenes (there were realtime ones as well); the same thing could be said:

This is very silly. The business case isn't made on continuing a naming convention. Evaluate the added cost and problems of adopting the new technology in relation to the benefits. clearly, there are next to zero benefits. 1080p cutscenes for 720p games (hopefully rendering in-game cutscenes more these days) for the few 1080p set owners? So on cutscenes, the console switches from 720p to 1080p? Or is the console now going to be upscaling games to 1080p instead of the TV?

1080p is niche. It's not supported in games. 1080p rendered CGs just for PS3 adds cost for no good reason (it's not like the game will sell loads more by using 1080p video). Games aren't going to need the storage because the production cost in creating that much content would be astronomical, and games are all copied to HDD anyway making the disc just a distribution medium.

Though in the end: when I played the game in 2010, when 1080P sets were already a few 100 euros below the 1000 euro-pricepoint, the CGI did look absolutely amazing; you could create wallpapers from a HDMI capture; little to no compression artefacts, truly excellent
In comparison when PS3 launched 1080P sets were still around 2000 euro's, so 4K certainly is more expensive at this point in time.

 

[Lalaland]

I was being sarcastic... 2012... I followed holo disk development, and it's been promised for the "next year" for the last 20 years.

Dammit sarcasm detector is getting weaker every day! I too have heard 'next year' for so long on holographic media that I've come to expect I'll get it alongside my nuclear fusion powered jetpack.

I really do hope we get a proper high density optical media format though, the thought of being forced to accept streaming '4K' chills my very bones. The problem with that though is that it's probably not a storage density problem but rather more a political one. The scuttlebutt is that the studios do not want another physical format as they choose to blame physical media for piracy. Rather they prefer to tie consumers in knots with streaming media which is by definition always on and thus easier to resecure if a leak is found.

 

[eastmen]

So what about V-Nand Samsung's 3d Nand ? They are planning based on roadmaps to have a 1Tbit die in 2017. They will go 256Gbit 2015 - 512Gbit 2016- 1Tbit 2017

Games could ship on a small card the size of an SD using a single Nand chip hit a 128GB capacity.

 

[-tkf-]

So what about V-Nand Samsung's 3d Nand ? They are planning based on roadmaps to have a 1Tbit die in 2017. They will go 256Gbit 2015 - 512Gbit 2016- 1Tbit 2017

Games could ship on a small card the size of an SD using a single Nand chip hit a 128GB capacity.

Yep, we are getting closer. Right now a 128GB 850 drive is 130 dollars.

A quick google finds a 50GB Blu-Ray disc with print at $1.75 when you order 5000.

So with that inflated BR cost, it costs $4.5 to have the same capacity on a plastic disc.

2019 where i hope the next round is out (as if) it could very well be a possibility to have Nandtridges that didn't need to install, would load and run everything from the Nandtridges and essentially could help boost the games by a large amount, ram wouldn't be needed to buffer everything, streaming would be hindered by seek time or spindle speed. Consoles could be produced with a comparable smaller amount of local storage, just big enough to hold DLC.

The same issues hold true of course, production capacity vs demand, price vs demand and if the roadmap actually holds true along with the needed price drop.

And a new thing, with DD there is a great demand for storage, next round of consoles will have to have alot of local storage if DD is the way. 500GB is very tiny for this generation, so there might be a issues there with what way "they" want to go.

 

[eastmen]

developers could actually plan the cart size in advance for DLC . If your game is only 180 gigs and you ship it on a 240 gig cart you don't need to install anything to a local hardrive .

Also you might want to look at the crucial mx 100 http://www.amazon.com/Crucial-MX100...ie=UTF8&qid=1406532453&sr=8-3&keywords=mx+100

Its at $75 bucks for pretty damn good performance at 128 gigs.

 

[-tkf-]

developers could actually plan the cart size in advance for DLC . If your game is only 180 gigs and you ship it on a 240 gig cart you don't need to install anything to a local hardrive .

Also you might want to look at the crucial mx 100 http://www.amazon.com/Crucial-MX100...ie=UTF8&qid=1406532453&sr=8-3&keywords=mx+100

Its at $75 bucks for pretty damn good performance at 128 gigs.

I thought of the larger than needed space myself, but i think that will be easier and cheaper to handle with a local driver/flash than extra space. Day one DLC would of course be on the Nandtridge.

Is there any price on the actual chips?

 

[MrFox]

2013 prices were $0.60 per GB.

The most recent Industry Forecast is $0.15 per GB by 2020. So a 240GB cart will be $36, while a 500GB bluray will be $1. It's 36 times too expensive... even in 2020 for the PS5/XB2 it's insane.

Operating cost for duplication to flash is also problematic, it takes 45 minutes to copy 240GB at 100MB/s. Each bluray disc stamper makes 1000 per hour.

 

[eastmen]

2013 prices were $0.60 per GB.

The most recent Industry Forecast is $0.15 per GB by 2020. So a 240GB cart will be $36, while a 500GB bluray will be $1. It's 36 times too expensive... even in 2020 for the PS5/XB2 it's insane.

Operating cost for duplication to flash is also problematic, it takes 45 minutes to copy 240GB at 100MB/s. Each bluray disc stamper makes 1000 per hour.

that's a weird forcast considering Samsung is planning on producing 1Tb nand chips by 2018 Density will double every year according to their forcasts from 2014 to 2018. By 2018 a single nand chip will be a 120gigs Write speed should also increase as time goes on.

I can only imagine how slow a 500GB bluray must be when it hits the final few layers. We'd see instal times to disc many times longer than today

 

[MrFox]

that's a weird forcast considering Samsung is planning on producing 1Tb nand chips by 2018 Density will double every year according to their forcasts from 2014 to 2018. By 2018 a single nand chip will be a 120gigs Write speed should also increase as time goes on.

density != cost

I can only imagine how slow a 500GB bluray must be when it hits the final few layers. We'd see instal times to disc many times longer than today

It's not more layers. It's higher density.
Higher linear track density == Proportionally higher speed.

The ROM version will exist if it makes sense, business wise.

 

[taisui]

density != cost

It's not more layers. It's higher density.

Higher linear track density == Proportionally higher speed.

Thanks for restoring the sanity, you da real MVP.