It is funny I waded into this thread as I have a Word DOC open right now and my bullet points all align with AlphaWolf. I don't think anyone is pretending that a Flash format trumps BDR or other optical formats across the board (hardly). But looking at some of the challenges of upcoming consoles and then looking at the cost/benefit of Flash vs. Optical I think creates a scenario where solid media has some merits.
Major Issues:
* Load Times. Optical drives at this point in technology are not addressing load time issues. There are probably *serious* end-user experience benefits to a platform that put near-instant load times as a platform experience priority. With consoles with 2GB (or more) load times must be a massive concern in the MS/Sony camps. Even the fastest optical drives are slow; designing around load times is a design issue and developers will need to get used to streaming in chunks and designing with massive loads ahead but that doesn't mean this should not be address on the HW side to some degree. Streaming installs are one path yet while the PS3 BDR was CAV that doesn't necessarily address the issue of a lot of small files, which leads to...
* Seek Time. Packing and redundancy play a part in disk layout as a ton of small file seeks really slows down an optical drive. A solid Flash media would be at least a minimal step in the opposite direction.
* Power Draw. Power is a big issue with new consoles--while transistor density is doubling every ~ 2 years the power consumption is not reducing at a similar rate (often in the 30-40% range). This means if you are capped at TDP, and not die area, you are getting only a 30-40% performance gains for TDP every 2 years or so. I could be wrong but it looks like Blu Ray movie playback is about 10W (cf.
the 1080p network stream to the Blu Ray play back). For gaming this will be higher as higher speed drives will be needed to transfer data for the assumed larger memory pools to accommodate next generation assets.
* Size & Cooling. Optical drives take up a lot of room. Optical drives do not undergo significant size reduction. This issue slices two ways. There is the "Wii" sized console where removing the optical drive results in a smaller console which means a smaller, lighter price that (a) appeals to certain consumers and (b) has real impact on shipping and shelf space. The other direction, in-line with the issues of power, is cooling. Keep the volume footprint of the optical drive and shift it toward better cooling layouts.
* Costs & Licensing. Optical drives have a lot of attendant costs. There is the manufacturing and assembly. There are the associated costs the space they consume in the design which ends up being a relevant percentage volume packaging space and weight. And then there are the licensing issues. As a project leader if you were staring down $50 for an optical format for bulk product costs and that this consumes 17-12% of your product budget ($300-$400 product) with the slowest reductions you have to at least consider what else that could be spent on and how it may benefit the user experience.
* Reliability. Optical drives and the media are not the most reliable formats. Scratched and smudged disks are annoying; broken consoles due to drive errors can turn consumers away.
* Noise. A very fast optical drive, which a new console will need, is going to be loud.
I would not argue Flash as a panacea for these issues. Memory across the board is going to be a major design issue on future consoles. We may very well see one company go a tiered format (1GB very fast memory, 2GB slower memory, a local storage Flash/SSD/HDD, and then media storage (optical, flash)) and another go with a single larger pool (2-4GB) and then local storage and media storage (optical, flash). We don't know the new console time lines but we do know that DRAM densities (thus number chips) as well as pad limits on the chips themselves pose issues. If things play out much longer there may be some solutions (Silicone Interposers, Stacked Memory, 3D chips with memory stacked and connected with TEVs, etc; DDR4 is on the horizon) but none-the-less memory systems are a major concern across the board because of manufacturing issues, costs, reduction prognosis, and performance pitfalls.
Physical memory could play some part in the solution. Flash increases density about 30-40% a year and this projected to continue pretty much throughout much of the lifetime of the next console (assuming 5-8 year cycle). I see, in early 2012, 16GB consumer purchasable Flash products at $10. They are junk but looking at a 2014 console and the advantage of a major gaming company ordering tens of millions a month to spec has advantages. Ok, that is a big cost, no way around that.
But lets be crazy. Lets say I am MS (not Sony, as I am tied to Blu Ray) and I am aiming at this sleek, quiet console and leveraging a prompt gaming experience as a core feature. On the one side you just pin your similar consoles at the same price point, reap the advantage of saving $50 a unit for no optical drive, and use them as a media allocation where you offer certain subsidies for the game-media (e.g. $5/game; 10 game attach through a generation and you are looking at a pretty level cost). There would be issues of manufacturing, overhead costs, etc that are very real, no doubt. You really are looking at a 4x cost of goods on manufacturing. On the other hand you just opened the door for games not as large to shave some costs and some high end games going larger / faster media. It would be an interesting dynamic.
If you take the crazy plunge there are some not-so-crazy augmentations you could do. One is that Flash, unlike Optical, is re-writable. Why not allow users to bring their Flash Drive into GameStop/Walmart/Target/BestBuy and download the content and purchase a "game card" in store (or unlock at home)? Maybe this opens the door for a snazzy demo-kiosk where instead of the huge isle of blank game disks you have 6-8 32" screens with all sorts of running demos, previous, adverts, and "purchase" slots. Walk up, select your game, insert your drive, purchase (% going to the store) and done.
This is only really an extension of DLC anyways.
Which is another major component: Who is buying a $400 console in NA in 2014? Most likely someone with solid internet. I know not everyone, but this shifts back to the cost/benefit of the platform design. If you are strongly targeting online consumers of games, social gaming, movies, music, etc who are happy to purchase content digitally do you (a) cut huge manufacturing costs to shift toward peppier performance and larger drives and (b) inflate brick and mortar costs (to you and consumer) due to a Flash media storage?
If it means cutting my load times by 70% I at least consider this scenario.
I am not saying these ideas work as is. I am not saying they would work at all.
I would say that, from a gaming perspective with some of the issues ahead, two platforms that have near identical budgets for chips and box-volume, removing the optical drive and using those budgets for faster drives and faster chips (or shifted completely over to another product concept, e.g. user input devices) could be a game changer. You do lose BC for physical games and the device is no longer a standalone media-center for those invested in BDR/DVD (yet I constantly see people with a DVD or BDR plus a Wii, PS3, and or Xbox 360 all on their entertainment center) and this would be very unpopular for many due to physical media cost increases, the console being seriously aimed at those with strong internet connections, a big blow to used content, not being that all in one media box, and so forth.
Yet I find it sobering that a lot of the concerns of losing an optical drive are less gaming related. End user cost for a physical media really sticks out, but who would pay $5 more per game for better load times and general performance improvements due to a better media format?
I think all consoles will have optical drives next gen. While I will continue to chuckle at those who point out the small number of 360 games that needed more than one disk (no one ever said games would never need spanning! just it wasn't going to be a systemic limiting issue in the projected 5 year life-cycle which has proven to be one of the most true predictions this entire generation for the general industry) the reality is easy to see that games on faster hardware will be routinely pushing well beyond the DVD limits and up to and beyond 25GB BR disk limits if care is not taken (sure, there are work arounds like like DLC HD packs meh meh meh and some of the benefits of better media packing but again Flash is no panacea). And although a rough start Megatexture and the like seem like a viable software design concept which shifts the burden to media. Optical drives may be slow and still require a HDD install but it isn't hard thinking of a next gen product using Megatextures stretching out toward 50GB.
That said I would probably root hard for a console that went with a Solid State drive of some sort, with the goal of addressing load times and performance issues, and sacrificed optical media one way or another.
Just my 2 cents.