Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*

[Silent_Buddha]

Nintendo endorses physical media over dd

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-02-18-nintendo-physical-media-is-here-to-stay

There's nothing there that hasn't already been discussed in this thread. As we, or at least I have mentioned, at least with the next console generation there's still going to be people that cannot download games due to limited access to uncapped broadband.

The big question is how to get those games out to those consumers. Nintendo obviously see's us continuing the traditional retail 1 game = 1 media type of distribution.

Kaz Hirai is careful not to be so specific. He just acknowledges that some form of physical medium will still be required to distribute games. That doesn't preclude the use of re-useable media.

As well from the same article,

And in October Take-Two boss Strauss Zelnick predicted that in three years' time 40 per cent of the Grand Theft Auto company's sales will be digitally distributed titles.

So by 2013, before the next consoles are expected to launch (2014), some publishers are already predicting that almost half of their sales will be DD. Whichever console fully embraces DD will have a leg up on its competition (assuming not all of them embrace DD). The only remaining question is how to best serve all those consumers who cannot download large multi-GB games due to insufficient access to uncapped broadband.

And considering that statement, one has to wonder if 1) they expect NGP to do EXTREMELY well, 2) they expect to invest more in Xbox Live/PSN games, or 3) they have some news from either Sony or MS that there may be a greater DD push (perhaps a roll out of day and date DD launches of titles on XBLive/PSN in conjunction with physical retail) in the next couple of years. Because PC DD isn't going to get them to 40% digital sales. As well both Activision and EA have stated they are increasingly focused on electronic distrution and sales. Konami also mentioned greater focus on Digital sales and distribution in the latest financial report.

And if we consider that Nintendo may launch a new console in, say 2012 versus 2014, then DD is obviously less of a factor and thus sets their expectations accordingly.

Regards,
SB

 

[manux]

There's nothing there that hasn't already been discussed in this thread.

Message coming from nintendo and sony has more weight than random rambling on internet.

So by 2013, before the next consoles are expected to launch (2014), some publishers are already predicting that almost half of their sales will be DD. Whichever console fully embraces DD will have a leg up on its competition (assuming not all of them embrace DD). The only remaining question is how to best serve all those consumers who cannot download large multi-GB games due to insufficient access to uncapped broadband.

This is also what I have been saying all the time. It will be physical media + dd for next gen. I see dd only console as an option to some markets at some point of time. For physical media I bet the cheapest media at that time wins where cheapest might mean different things to different manufacturers(i.e. sony presses their own discs and profits from blu-ray/dvd business whereas ms/nintendo don't have additional revenue on disc based medias).

I bet NGP will be interesting experiment as it will allow sony to test how consumers behave once given the choice of physical media vs. DD. Sony can also try different image sizes to see how download sizes affect user behaviour.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I bet NGP will be interesting experiment as it will allow sony to test how consumers behave once given the choice of physical media vs. DD. Sony can also try different image sizes to see how download sizes affect user behaviour.

Yup NGP will be the first real console testing ground for how well DD (of AAA games) might do for the console segment. So it'll be interesting to see how it progresses. Of course, all that goes out the window if it somehow gets hacked early in life like the PSP. Or if Sony don't follow through with day and date releases of DD.

Unfortunately there will be almost no way to track sales or impact of such other than through Sony PR/Financial reports or publishers PR/financial reports.

Regards,
SB

 

[eastmen]

Nintendo announced that 3DS titles for the USA will be $39.99 which is a $5 increase over the DS titles at $34.99 for first party titles.

If consumers are willing to put up with a $5 increase for 3DS(and they might not for all we know but nintendo seems to think it) why couldn't home console owners deal with a $5 increase to cover flash expenses.

 

[corduroygt]

Nintendo announced that 3DS titles for the USA will be $39.99 which is a $5 increase over the DS titles at $34.99 for first party titles.

If consumers are willing to put up with a $5 increase for 3DS(and they might not for all we know but nintendo seems to think it) why couldn't home console owners deal with a $5 increase to cover flash expenses.

The DS really has no competition in the handheld space, so it's not an apples to apples comparison. When your competitor offers their games for cheaper, and their developers don't have to plan months ahead to commence production, it becomes a serious disadvantage.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Nintendo announced that 3DS titles for the USA will be $39.99 which is a $5 increase over the DS titles at $34.99 for first party titles.

If consumers are willing to put up with a $5 increase for 3DS(and they might not for all we know but nintendo seems to think it) why couldn't home console owners deal with a $5 increase to cover flash expenses.

I'm already expecting the price of games to jump up to 70-80 USD MSRP (interestingly enough the price of many AAA computer games back in the early to mid 90s) for next gen consoles on optical disks (assuming they remain on optical). At that point they really wouldn't have much choice but to go with the cheapest possible single use distribution medium if that is the way they choose to go (versus a reuseable distribution medium).

Regards,
SB

 

[acaeus]

I'm already expecting the price of games to jump up to 70-80 USD MSRP (interestingly enough the price of many AAA computer games back in the early to mid 90s) for next gen consoles on optical disks (assuming they remain on optical). At that point they really wouldn't have much choice but to go with the cheapest possible single use distribution medium if that is the way they choose to go (versus a reuseable distribution medium).

Regards,
SB

Excellent news for gamestop and ebay!

"The more you tighten your grip..."

 

[ERP]

Nintendo announced that 3DS titles for the USA will be $39.99 which is a $5 increase over the DS titles at $34.99 for first party titles.

If consumers are willing to put up with a $5 increase for 3DS(and they might not for all we know but nintendo seems to think it) why couldn't home console owners deal with a $5 increase to cover flash expenses.

Cost to the customer is a minor issue, it's about munufacturing turn around and inventory cost for publishers.

Lets say I project 1M sold, turn around time is 6-10 weeks, because manufactring is overseas and I have to account for shipping, so I have to order all 1M up front in order to hit the peak sales window.

If the game then flops, I take a loss that's close to 10x greater than disks pressed in the local territory. If you go back to the Genesis days there were cases where a single failed product almost took out very large publishers. Capcom and Super Street Fighter Championship Edition springs to mind. You could buy that in bargain bins within 3 months of release for less that Capcom paid per cart.

 

[-tkf-]

Nintendo announced that 3DS titles for the USA will be $39.99 which is a $5 increase over the DS titles at $34.99 for first party titles.

If consumers are willing to put up with a $5 increase for 3DS(and they might not for all we know but nintendo seems to think it) why couldn't home console owners deal with a $5 increase to cover flash expenses.

Going in circles? $5 dollars at the manufactoring level is not $5 dollars more at the enduser. It´s way more.
And those "5" dollars would come on top of the ever increasing price for console games anyway. So it would be more like $15 or 20

 

[Squilliam]

Cost to the customer is a minor issue, it's about munufacturing turn around and inventory cost for publishers.

Lets say I project 1M sold, turn around time is 6-10 weeks, because manufactring is overseas and I have to account for shipping, so I have to order all 1M up front in order to hit the peak sales window.

If the game then flops, I take a loss that's close to 10x greater than disks pressed in the local territory. If you go back to the Genesis days there were cases where a single failed product almost took out very large publishers. Capcom and Super Street Fighter Championship Edition springs to mind. You could buy that in bargain bins within 3 months of release for less that Capcom paid per cart.

If you could manufacture your games on site, much the same way that they manufacture books in some book stores couldn't that solve the cartridge distribution problem? That way there's no lead times, no specific shipping costs and no outlay except for every game which gets sold.

Distribution is still a problem for optical disc based games anyway. You have shipping, manufacturing and warehousing costs regardless of the media used. The physical chain in getting a game to a store is significantly higher than the $1-2 to press the disc and make the box. If you took those costs out of the picture even if it costs more per unit to print on site it could save significant monies in the distribution chain and it would mean effectively that titles would never have to go out of print.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Going in circles? $5 dollars at the manufactoring level is not $5 dollars more at the enduser. It´s way more.
And those "5" dollars would come on top of the ever increasing price for console games anyway. So it would be more like $15 or 20

No. If that was true the first blu-ray movies and games would have cost $100 and all the DS games would cost $50.

 

[eastmen]

Cost to the customer is a minor issue, it's about munufacturing turn around and inventory cost for publishers.

Lets say I project 1M sold, turn around time is 6-10 weeks, because manufactring is overseas and I have to account for shipping, so I have to order all 1M up front in order to hit the peak sales window.

If the game then flops, I take a loss that's close to 10x greater than disks pressed in the local territory. If you go back to the Genesis days there were cases where a single failed product almost took out very large publishers. Capcom and Super Street Fighter Championship Edition springs to mind. You could buy that in bargain bins within 3 months of release for less that Capcom paid per cart.

Using flash any unsold copys can be flashed to something new and put a new artwork sticker on it .




As for downloads I snapped a picture of how gamestop and other stores could sell them






This is how gamestop sells DLC . If you notice compared to an xbox 360 box they are tiny. Whats more stores like gamestop can keep them out on the sales floor without worry of them eing stolen as they are worthless until activated.

The way it works right now is that gamestop puts empty cases out on the store floor but they still need to store them some where in the store. So they have draws and draws worth of games and the backroom is full of them.

If you look these things are almost paper thin. I didn't have time to see how many fit in the space of a single game case but its most likely 2 dozen or so .

This would be a retail store like target / walmart's wet dream getting a piece of the action and having none of the risk

 

[AzBat]

Eastmen, I've been talking about GameStop & their new Xbox DLC strategy for awhile now. I think it's pretty sound... for now. They even have plans to try to link your purchases directly with your Xbox Live Gamertag/account. That way you won't have to enter the auth code, just go home & it's automatically in your download queue. Anyway, here is some more news on Gamestop getting ready to go after more digital sales...

Steve Nix Leaves id Software For GameStop

id Software's digital distribution general manager Steve Nix has left the Doom and Quake developer for major U.S. game retailer GameStop, he confirmed this week.

The executive said on his Facebook page this week that he's joining Grapevine, TX-based GameStop after spending over four years with id Software. He'll be divisional VP and general manager of digital distribution at the retailer.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/33147/Steve_Nix_Leaves_id_Software_For_GameStop.php

Could get interesting.

Tommy McClain

 

[-tkf-]

No. If that was true the first blu-ray movies and games would have cost $100 and all the DS games would cost $50.

PS3 games did cost more than PS2 games but that was game price inflation.

Lets just pretend that the first Blu-Rays did cost $5 dollars a pop for a SL (afaik they did not), it would have been for a very short period.

 

[eastmen]

Eastmen, I've been talking about GameStop & their new Xbox DLC strategy for awhile now. I think it's pretty sound... for now. They even have plans to try to link your purchases directly with your Xbox Live Gamertag/account. That way you won't have to enter the auth code, just go home & it's automatically in your download queue. Anyway, here is some more news on Gamestop getting ready to go after more digital sales...

Steve Nix Leaves id Software For GameStop



http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/33147/Steve_Nix_Leaves_id_Software_For_GameStop.php

Could get interesting.

Tommy McClain

I took the pictures so others would know what i'm talking about when i compare sizes and talk about how going this route would save companys millions


I really think this is the optimal way to go optical has to many flaws and flash would cost slightly more (although replaces alot of optical's flaws ) .

 

[corduroygt]

Distribution is still a problem for optical disc based games anyway. You have shipping, manufacturing and warehousing costs regardless of the media used. The physical chain in getting a game to a store is significantly higher than the $1-2 to press the disc and make the box. If you took those costs out of the picture even if it costs more per unit to print on site it could save significant monies in the distribution chain and it would mean effectively that titles would never have to go out of print.

There are huge security issues with that, now I can rob a Gamestop, and instead of making out with 100 copies of black ops, now I can make unlimited copies...

 

[corduroygt]

Using flash any unsold copys can be flashed to something new and put a new artwork sticker on it .

You don't want your game carts rewritable. Besides, recalling and reprogramming flash would cost a lot of money as well, probably even more than distributing it.

 

[corduroygt]

No. If that was true the first blu-ray movies and games would have cost $100 and all the DS games would cost $50.

Link to cost of making single layer blu-ray discs in 2006, and show how they cost more than DS carts please.

 

[eastmen]

There are huge security issues with that, now I can rob a Gamestop, and instead of making out with 100 copies of black ops, now I can make unlimited copies...

The gamestop computer would have to report to MS's computer data base to make the codes valid. SEcurity could make it so that a diffrent ip kills the link between them.

You don't want your game carts rewritable. Besides, recalling and reprogramming flash would cost a lot of money as well, probably even more than distributing it.

It depends on how you do it. Blurays are extremely easy to rip , there have been rips on the web since a few months after launch. Reflashing wouldn't be very expensive as you will be reflashing very old titles that game stores will want to get rid of anyway .


What you can even do is as a manufacturer offer to take trade ins for credits. There are some games that gamestop takes in that get you less than $5 bucks I think madden 2008 is worth 50 cents trade in. All MS would have to do is offer 100 ms points and free shipping (its a small flash cart so it wont cost more than a stamp ) and people will trade in to microsoft instead of gamestop on alot of old games. now MS has flash that can be reporgramed.

 

[Squilliam]

There are huge security issues with that, now I can rob a Gamestop, and instead of making out with 100 copies of black ops, now I can make unlimited copies...

If you really believe that you're stupid enough to believe you can rop the local ATM machine and get a few thousand dollars instead of the local gas station for $50-60