This has been something industry folk have been talking about for quite a long time, but I feel as if in 2006 the sea-change will finally come and 'convergence' will begin to occur in earnest in the place it matters most: the living room. I've been thinking a lot about the various players in this game lately, and though I could write a report/analysis about it several pages long just myself, I wanted to get a sense of what others thought about the strategies of the various players. We'll get a sense of what's to come at CES in a couple of days, so I wanted a thread for some 'clean' speculation before the fact.
The Big Four I see going into this 'battle' next year are Apple, Intel, Microsoft, and Sony. Certainly if I've left someone out, be sure to toss them in. What I see right now though is:
Apple supposedly is doing an x86 mini-Mac version that will have TiVo like functionality, seemless transfer of content (including said video content) to the various iPod/Video iPod players, and in my estimation wrapped in a near-silently cooled, stylish, not too expensive package.
Intel is just all over the whole thing. First of all, they are wrapped up into Apple's strategy, they will probably represent 75% of the chips and chipsets to ship in the HTPC's based on MS' Vista initiative, AND to be revealed this CES, they have their own ViiV initiative. So, I don't know what to expect from ViiV, but supposedly consumer electronic levels of ease and a step beyond the standard media center (and Vista eventually) setups we're used to. Now I'm not sure what the level of crossover between Vista/Media Center and ViiV will be, but obviously there will be some.
Microsoft has already dipped it's toes in the whole thing with media center, and now with the 360. But it doesn't get *real* until Vista comes out. Media Center right now is quite niche and 360 is of course considered primarily by the masses to be a games machine. Vista will launch in December (supposedly) but up until then MS will be able to have their agenda carried out by proxy via Intel and the media center/HTPC movement. Microsoft will be fine either way, as they still rule the roost on the PC side of things, but a strong and decisive showing in the living room could really secure their future. A lot will depend on the uptake levels of the consumer, going from their current OS to Vista, and the uptake levels of the media center concept come the end of 2006, beginning of 2007.
Ironically Sony will be in the same boat as MS and Intel above through it's VAIO line of computers, where they are very active in the media center space - but I'm of course focusing on PS3 here. Sony has the advantage of a massive install base, brand recognition as a consumer electronics maker that should be getting a decent boost this year if Stringer's comments on a big marketing push are too be believed, and of course 'trojan horse' like features such as blu-ray movie playback and gaming. Now the online and content distribution side of the equation is actually an unknown for PS3 at this point, so there's no guarantee yet that they're really vying for the same market in the same ways; but we have to assume they are. If not, well then it's still there for gaming revenue as well as a trojan for blu-ray success.
Anyway ok I've rambled on here quite a bit, and didn't write everything I could have, all the contingencies etc..., but nonetheless I think it'll be an interesting year in terms of what happens in the living room. Certainly if anyone has any further thoughts or comments or guesses or whatever, toss them into the mix!
The Big Four I see going into this 'battle' next year are Apple, Intel, Microsoft, and Sony. Certainly if I've left someone out, be sure to toss them in. What I see right now though is:
Apple supposedly is doing an x86 mini-Mac version that will have TiVo like functionality, seemless transfer of content (including said video content) to the various iPod/Video iPod players, and in my estimation wrapped in a near-silently cooled, stylish, not too expensive package.
Advantages: Apple has already broken through the wall in the consumer consciousness from computer maker to maker of chic consumer electronics. iPod tie-ins obvious bonus. People who have bought into the whole IPod craze in general are not afraid to spend some cash.
Disadvantages: Not many spring to mind, but Apple's Mac mini is set to be heavily cloned next year from the x86 side of things, and Intel is working on the reference designs for both, further reducing Apple's edge possibly since Intel's fighting in the same space.
Disadvantages: Not many spring to mind, but Apple's Mac mini is set to be heavily cloned next year from the x86 side of things, and Intel is working on the reference designs for both, further reducing Apple's edge possibly since Intel's fighting in the same space.
Intel is just all over the whole thing. First of all, they are wrapped up into Apple's strategy, they will probably represent 75% of the chips and chipsets to ship in the HTPC's based on MS' Vista initiative, AND to be revealed this CES, they have their own ViiV initiative. So, I don't know what to expect from ViiV, but supposedly consumer electronic levels of ease and a step beyond the standard media center (and Vista eventually) setups we're used to. Now I'm not sure what the level of crossover between Vista/Media Center and ViiV will be, but obviously there will be some.
Advantages: Almost like a country that not only waging it's own war, but also supplying arms to ally and foe alike, Intel is set to profit as long as the HTPC concept breaks into the mainstream. In addition, their marketing budget for ViiV is supposedly going to be pretty enormous.
Disadvantages: HTPC's are still kind of the purvue of the rich and/or techie, and Intel has to break down walls in order to get the mainstream interested, branding effort or no. The cost of the machines and public awareness will both play a factor, as will perceived need. Afterall does someone that already owns TiVo and a DVD player also need ViiV? Intel will make the case for itself shortly.
Disadvantages: HTPC's are still kind of the purvue of the rich and/or techie, and Intel has to break down walls in order to get the mainstream interested, branding effort or no. The cost of the machines and public awareness will both play a factor, as will perceived need. Afterall does someone that already owns TiVo and a DVD player also need ViiV? Intel will make the case for itself shortly.
Microsoft has already dipped it's toes in the whole thing with media center, and now with the 360. But it doesn't get *real* until Vista comes out. Media Center right now is quite niche and 360 is of course considered primarily by the masses to be a games machine. Vista will launch in December (supposedly) but up until then MS will be able to have their agenda carried out by proxy via Intel and the media center/HTPC movement. Microsoft will be fine either way, as they still rule the roost on the PC side of things, but a strong and decisive showing in the living room could really secure their future. A lot will depend on the uptake levels of the consumer, going from their current OS to Vista, and the uptake levels of the media center concept come the end of 2006, beginning of 2007.
Advantages: The 360 gains appeal the greater the penetration of media center/Vista PC's due to it's media extender functionality. Two years from now, could provide the basis for an inexpensive set-top box, essentially for media center expansion, while increasing and promoting revenues from game sales, and vice versa. As for Vista, will provide the backbone for the HTPC computers being made and marketed by other companies. Regardless of living room efforts, will still likely dominate the PC space. Vista supposedly will also be 'revitalizing' the PC as a gaming platform.
Disadvantages: Is somewhat dependent on the efforts of PC partners to determine it's success in the living room. December launch date not too late in and of itself, but chance of slip always exists. Success on Vista's part does not necessarilly mean that competitors Apple and Sony are not also gaining strong footholds, with the goal of ultimately wresting the consumer from Windows.
Disadvantages: Is somewhat dependent on the efforts of PC partners to determine it's success in the living room. December launch date not too late in and of itself, but chance of slip always exists. Success on Vista's part does not necessarilly mean that competitors Apple and Sony are not also gaining strong footholds, with the goal of ultimately wresting the consumer from Windows.
Ironically Sony will be in the same boat as MS and Intel above through it's VAIO line of computers, where they are very active in the media center space - but I'm of course focusing on PS3 here. Sony has the advantage of a massive install base, brand recognition as a consumer electronics maker that should be getting a decent boost this year if Stringer's comments on a big marketing push are too be believed, and of course 'trojan horse' like features such as blu-ray movie playback and gaming. Now the online and content distribution side of the equation is actually an unknown for PS3 at this point, so there's no guarantee yet that they're really vying for the same market in the same ways; but we have to assume they are. If not, well then it's still there for gaming revenue as well as a trojan for blu-ray success.
Advantages: Sony's install base with PS2 and origins as a consumer electronics maker should make the idea of a PS3 purchase for purposes beyond gaming fairly approachable to the average consumer. Will be supported by a large blu-ray and general Sony marketing campaign. I'd say Linux on PS3 is an advantage as well, but that's too much of an unknown to really address.
Disadvantages: MS' 360 potentially blunts Sony's thrust with PS3's main 'trojan' feature, gaming. Their respective successes are not completely inverse to one another, but on some level must be. In addition recent moves by MS indicate they will use the home theatre PC's as a foil for blu-ray by pushing HD-DVD. Blu-ray has the edge right now, with lot's of different factors playing in, but this attack from the HTPC front keeps HD-DVD in the fight, and potentially dulls another of PS3's draws, thus dulling blu-rays appeal, etc etc...
Disadvantages: MS' 360 potentially blunts Sony's thrust with PS3's main 'trojan' feature, gaming. Their respective successes are not completely inverse to one another, but on some level must be. In addition recent moves by MS indicate they will use the home theatre PC's as a foil for blu-ray by pushing HD-DVD. Blu-ray has the edge right now, with lot's of different factors playing in, but this attack from the HTPC front keeps HD-DVD in the fight, and potentially dulls another of PS3's draws, thus dulling blu-rays appeal, etc etc...
Anyway ok I've rambled on here quite a bit, and didn't write everything I could have, all the contingencies etc..., but nonetheless I think it'll be an interesting year in terms of what happens in the living room. Certainly if anyone has any further thoughts or comments or guesses or whatever, toss them into the mix!
Last edited by a moderator:
Do you mean Cell phones PDA's and such? I don't think 2006 is the year for that - in a way it's already had it's first year in 2005 I feel, and maybe 2007 will be a year of further shift. Pocket's already getting decently converged though.
A spontaneous answear would be that a smal OS for a dedicated machine would turn on instantly.