Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*

[eastmen]

So you're now saying 2018 for next gen. Can we talk about some cost per gigabyte predictions for 2018?

well q2 2016 will be .12 cents per gig in an ssd format. I would think we could be down to .08 cents or less per gig in 2018/19

I'm sure MS will want to launch early again to force sony out of a lead

New gen in 2018? Maybe if we consider Nintendo's new platform as the start of a new generation. I wouldn't, yet.

It will be 5 years for the xbox one. I don't see why MS will wait longer esp if sony keeps outselling them 2 to 1.

At this rate, waiting until 2021 could allow some really usable capacity for an internal SSD.

Whats a usable capcity for an internal SSD ?

Companies plan to double the capcity of nand chips each year with 3D nand. Even if that slips to 18 or 24 months with a 4TB drive at $500 in 2016 there is no reason why that cost wouldn't be $250 of below in 2018 and that's the cost to the consumer. The cost to a huge bulk buyer like MS or sony will be much less when they are willing to buy millions of them

 

[London Geezer]

Nobody wants a new Xbox after 5 years, especially when the current Xbox is producing visuals like ROTR which, aside from resolution, is pretty damn close to the PC version.

Also, you're automatically assuming that the new platform wouldn't be outsold 2:1 by the PS4, which is also a big assumption.

 

[eastmen]

Nobody wants a new Xbox after 5 years, especially when the current Xbox is producing visuals like ROTR which, aside from resolution, is pretty damn close to the PC version.

Also, you're automatically assuming that the new platform wouldn't be outsold 2:1 by the PS4, which is also a big assumption.

Its all assumptions.

I've seen plenty of games that look bad on both consoles but look great on PC and the list will only grow. Add in things like VR or AR to the mix and the consoles will continue to look long in the tooth.

Last time MS forced an early gen turn over it helped them keep a lead over sony for most of last generation. No doubt its possible it can happen again.

We will know the fallout on VR by 2017 if its just a fad or if its here to stay. MS has no VR strategy that we know of with the xbox one and since the ps4 is barely pushing vr , the xbox one may never get vr.

If VR is popular MS can hit the ground running with a new much more powerful console (sub 14nm console with HBM2 ram and so on) . If hololens is ready they can make a push with AR and a new console.

I think its naïve to believe that year 5 will look like year 3. To be frank we haven't had a new process node since the launch these systems. This year we will have that launch and performance on the pc side should greatly go up.

 

[Lalaland]

The trend has been half the price per GB every 18 months

Which for the eMMC based $500 4TB drive suggests $125 for storage (after 36 months) that is too slow and still 400% more expensive than the estimated $25-$35 for the storage today. And that leaves aside that you really do not want an eMMC based anything in your console, so even if it was a 1TB drive at $37 it would be a bad deal.

 

[fehu]

what about ufs2 or 3?

 

[MrFox]

well q2 2016 will be .12 cents per gig in an ssd format.

It's ludicrous to believe a drive will be $500 for 4TB in Q2-2016. Nothing adds up, all reports have major discrepancies, most of them also mention 0.25/GB, and not a single website have any form of editorial integrity.

 

[function]

If we want AAA games dripping in unique UHD assets, then the only physical format likely to do the trick is unfortunately BR UHD.

Given that MS and Sony are still (understandably) likely to want to serve the DVD/BR/BR UHD markets as media boxes I guess we know what's coming next gen: Optical (physical) distribution, wanky assed laptop HDD for install.

The predictability and mudanity is depressing.

 

[MrFox]

We have good journalism after all. Anand Tech was the first to post a correction, but it's hidden in the senior editor's summary. The ssd editor still haven't posted a correction. This is why it's important to have editorial oversight by a senior editor. The comment section is funny, "other sites are saying it, so it must be true".
http://www.anandtech.com/show/9986/ces-2016-roundup-total-editor-recall

Mushkin has clarified their comments to us: they are aiming for below $0.25/GB, which puts the drive south of $1000. Saying $500 is more of an end goal several years down the line for this sort of capacity.

Which is, unsurprisingly, right in line with industry trends.

 

[eastmen]

So what is your solution ?

We already had drives on the market under .25 cents /GB .

Mechanical is stagnating 2TB 2.5 inch drives wont be enough next gen. Helium drives will also have a price premium if they are even made in laptop format

 

[AzBat]

Game streaming using Numecent's Cloudpaging technology. No longer need large capacity local storage to store all your games.

Tommy McClain

 

[MrFox]

So what is your solution ?

We already had drives on the market under .25 cents /GB .

Mechanical is stagnating 2TB 2.5 inch drives wont be enough next gen. Helium drives will also have a price premium if they are even made in laptop format

My very early prediction from the next gen thread is still a 1TB SSD, and cheap bdxl drive, but the mechanical hdds did not stagnate. Major technology transitions always create a slow down, until the next one ramps up.

Spoiler

Optical didn't stagnate either...

Spoiler

 

[eastmen]

So technology that isn't on the consumer market and a disc that will require you to flip it over to use all its data but also still be slow as shit and will still require a hardrive to make up for its speed problems.


MIght as well spend the money instead of on an optical drive on a larger ssd. Aside from that 1TB hardrives will be very cheap in the next gen of consoles.

 

[MrFox]

Your prediction of 0.08/GB was based on the $500 4TB in the next three months, so with mushkin correction doubling this figure... it's now 0.16/GB in 2018. Which I agree with!

That is $160 for a 1TB SSD.

 

[eastmen]

Your prediction of 0.08/GB was based on the $500 4TB in the next three months, so with mushkin correction doubling this figure... it's now 0.16/GB in 2018. Which I agree with!

That is $160 for a 1TB SSD.

we've still had 980 gig ssd's for $200 this year. Which places it at .20/GB in 2015 . I still think sub .10/GB is possible and likely in 2018.

I still want to know your solution to this


2005 8gig optical with 70MB/s hardrive 512megs of ram
2006 50 gig optical with 70MB/s hardrive 512 megs of ram
2013 50gig optical with 100MB/s hardrive 4/5 gigs of ram
2018+ 1TB optical (that's what you suggested right) with 100MB/s hardrive 32gigs of ram ?

Mechanical drives wont be fast enough. 1TB SSD will be to small .

DD will only get bigger growing each year.

Bluray itself will become a niche outside of archival situations.

 

[London Geezer]

I think you and many others are underestimating the number of people who value physical copies.

Look at music CD sales, they very much tanked in recent years but not only have seen an increase last year but also it looks like they had reached their lowest point and had stayed at the same level for a little while - ie there's still a considerable number of people buying CDs and these customers are keeping sales number to a decent enough level.

Physical still makes up at least half of games sales and I don't see how that's going to change any time soon, especially in the 2 years you've predicted as the start of a new gen.

(I'm not one of those btw, I can't remember the last time I inserted a disc in my ps4)

 

[eastmen]

I think you and many others are underestimating the number of people who value physical copies.

Look at music CD sales, they very much tanked in recent years but not only have seen an increase last year but also it looks like they had reached their lowest point and had stayed at the same level for a little while - ie there's still a considerable number of people buying CDs and these customers are keeping sales number to a decent enough level.

Physical still makes up at least half of games sales and I don't see how that's going to change any time soon, especially in the 2 years you've predicted as the start of a new gen.

(I'm not one of those btw, I can't remember the last time I inserted a disc in my ps4)

DD on consoles increased 34% yoy in 2015 vs 2014. Its going to only continue to increase in 2016/17/18 and so on.

With CDs they still provide the highest quality many can get for music and records is an in thing right now. There are also people with legacy devices like cars that only have cd players and no aux ports. The numbers will continue to drop.

There are some that enjoy collecting physical copies of games , there are crazies who think one day all the DD stuff will be shut off to make you buy more (of course now the majority of games require day one patches so your disc wont help u much) and some people don't have great internet connections. The other thing is that retail stores want to dump inventory quickly and will have big sales on some games , BB has the gamer club and stuff. So some see physical as cheaper. But it really didn't stop pc gaming from switching over to DD. It wont stop the console market. MS and Sony are training customers to buy DD by having bundles come with the DD copy. The most popular game of the last decade perhaps Minecraft is only avalible on the wii u as a digital copy.

The biggest part is that Optical will handicap the entire system in size and cost. I've of course argued for a better faster physical solultion like flash. But Mr Fox has his opinions on that also.

 

[Davros]

there are crazies who think one day all the DD stuff will be shut off to make you buy more

games shut off never

EA games that went offline 30th June 2014

• Battlefield 1942 for PC and Mac (including The Road to Rome and Secret Weapons of WW2 expansions)
• Battlefield 2 for PC (including Special Forces expansion)
• Battlefield 2: Modern Combat for PlayStation 2
• Battlefield 2142 for PC and Mac (including Northern Strike expansion)
• Battlefield Vietnam for PC
• Bejeweled 2 for the Wii
• Bulletstorm for PlayStation 3
• Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars for PC and Mac (including Kane's Wrath expansion)
• Command & Conquer: Generals for PC and Mac (including Zero Hour expansion)
• Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 for PC and Mac
• Crysis 2 for PC
• Crysis for PC
• Crysis Wars for PC
• Dracula - Undead Awakening for the Wii
• Dragon Sakura for Nintendo DS
• EA Sports 06 for PC
• F1 2002 for PC
• FIFA Soccer 08 (KOR) for the Wii
• FIFA Soccer 08 for Nintendo DS
• FIFA Soccer 09 for Nintendo DS
• FIFA Soccer 10 for Nintendo DS
• FIFA Street 3 for Nintendo DS
• Full Spectrum Warrior: Ten Hammers for PlayStation 2
• Global Operations for PC
• Green Day Rock Band for the Wii
• James Bond: Nightfire for PC
• Madden NFL 08 for Nintendo DS
• Madden NFL 09 for Nintendo DS
• Master of Orion 3 for PC
• Medal of Honor: Allied Assault for PC and Mac (including Breakthrough and Spearhead expansions)
• MySims Party for Wii
• MySims Racing for Nintendo DS
• MySims SkyHeroes for the Wii and DS
• NASCAR Sim Racing for PC
• NASCAR Thunder 2003 for PC
• NASCAR Thunder 2004 for PC
• Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit 2 for PC
• Need for Speed: ProStreet for Nintendo DS
• Need for Speed: Undercover for Nintendo DS
• Neverwinter Nights 2 for PC and Mac
• Neverwinter Nights for PC, Mac and Linux (including Hordes of the Underdark and Shadows of Undrentide expansions)
• SimCity Creator for Wii
• Skate It for Nintendo DS
• Sneezies for the Wii
• Spore Creatures for Nintendo DS
• Spore Hero Arena for Nintendo DS
• Star Wars: Battlefront for PC and PlayStation 2
• Star Wars: Battlefront II for PC and PlayStation 2
• The BEatles Rockband for the Wii
• Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 for Nintendo DS

 

[Davros]

Previously Shut Down Online Service
2006 FIFA World Cup for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa for PC, PlayStation 3, PlayStation Portable, Xbox 360 and Wii
Age of Immortals for Facebook
Arena Football for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
Arena Football: Road to Glory for PlayStation 2
Armies of Exigo for PC
Army of Two for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
Battlefield 2: Modern Combat for Xbox and Xbox 360
Battlefield 2: Modern Combat Demo for Xbox 360
BATTLEFIELD 3: Aftershock for iPad, iPhone, and iPod touch
Bejeweled for feature phones
Bejeweled for Android
Bejeweled Blitz for Google+
BOGGLE for Palm
BOOM BLOX for feature phones
BOOM BLOX Bash Party for Wii
Burnout Revenge for PlayStation 2, Xbox and Xbox 360
Burnout Dominator for PlayStation Portable
Burnout 3: Takedown for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
CONNECT 4 for Palm
Def Jam for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
Dragon Age Legends for Facebook and Google+
EA Create for Mac, PC, PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360
EA SPORTS Active 2.0 for PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360
EA SPORTS Active NFL Training Camp for Wii
EA SPORTS Fantasy Football 09 for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3
EA SPORTS Fight Night Round 2 for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
EA SPORTS Fight Night Round 3 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable and Xbox
EA SPORTS MMA (Live Broadcast Feature only) for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
EA SPORTS PGA TOUR Golf Challenge for Facebook
Facebreaker for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3
Fantasi Safari for iPad, iPhone, and iPod touch
FIFA Manager 10 for PC
FIFA Manager 11 for PC
FIFA Soccer 2005 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
FIFA Soccer 06 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
FIFA Soccer 07 for PC, PlayStation Portable, PlayStation 2, Xbox and Xbox 360
FIFA Soccer 08 for PlayStation Portable, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, Wii and PC
FIFA Soccer 09 for PC, PlayStation Portable, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii
FIFA Soccer 09 Ultimate Team for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
FIFA Soccer 10 for PC, PlayStation Portable, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii
FIFA Soccer 10 Ultimate Team for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
FIFA Soccer 11 for PC, PS3, Wii and Xbox 360
FIFA Soccer 11 Ultimate Team for PS3 and Xbox 360
FIFA Street 3 for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
FIFA Superstars for Facebook, iPad, iPhone and iPod touch
Ghost Harvest for iPhone
The Godfather The Game for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
The Godfather II for PC, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
GoldenEye: Rogue Agent for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
Hasbro Family Game Night for PlayStation 3 (PSN) and Xbox 360 (XBLA)
JAMDAT Bowling 2 for feature phones
LITTLEST PET SHOP Online for PC
The Lord of the Rings, The Battle for Middle-earth for PC
The Lord of the Rings, The Battle for Middle-earth II for PC and Xbox 360
The Lord of the Rings, The Battle for Middle-earth II, The Rise of the Witch-king for PC and Xbox 360
The Lord of the Rings: Conquest for PC, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
MMA for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
MVP Baseball 2005 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
MVP 07 NCAA Baseball for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
Madden NFL 05 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
Madden NFL 06 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
Madden NFL 07 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
Madden NFL 08 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, PlayStation Portable, Wii, Xbox and Xbox 360
Madden NFL 09 for PlayStation Portable (all regions), PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, Wii and Xbox
Madden NFL 10 for PlayStation Portable (all regions), PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii
Madden NFL 11 for PS3, Wii and Xbox 360
Madden NFL 11 Ultimate Team for PS3 and Xbox 360
Marvel Nemesis: Rise of the Imperfects for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
Medal of Honor Airborne for PlayStation Portable
Medal of Honor Heroes 2 for PlayStation Portable and Wii
Medal of Honor Pacific Assault for PC
Medal of Honor Rising Sun for PlayStation 2
Mercenaries 2: World in Flames for PC
MONOPOLY Millionaires for Facebook
MySims for PC
NASCAR 05: Chase for the Cup for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NASCAR 06: Total Team Control for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NASCAR 07 for PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Xbox and Xbox 360
NASCAR 08 for PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NASCAR 09 for PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NBA JAM for PS3 & Xbox 360
NBA LIVE 05 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NBA LIVE 06 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
NBA LIVE 07 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
NBA LIVE 08 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable and Wii
NBA LIVE 09 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii
NBA LIVE 10 for PS3 & Xbox 360
NBA Street (2007) for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NBA Street V3 for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NCAA Basketball 08 for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NCAA Basketball 09 for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NCAA Basketball 10 for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NCAA Football 05 for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NCAA Football 06 for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NCAA Football 07 for Xbox 360, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable and Xbox
NCAA Football 08 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NCAA Football 09 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and PlayStation 2
NCAA Football 10 for PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NCAA Football 11 for PS3 and Xbox 360
NCAA March Madness 06 for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NCAA March Madness 2005 for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NCAA March Madness 07 for PlayStation 2, Xbox and Xbox 360
Need for Speed Carbon for PlayStation Portable
Need for Speed Most Wanted for PC, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
Need for Speed ProStreet for PC and PlayStation Portable, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
Need for Speed Undercover for PlayStation Portable
Need for Speed Underground for PlayStation 2
Need for Speed Underground 2 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NFL Head Coach 09 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NFL STREET 2: Unleashed for PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NFL STREET 3 for PlayStation 2
NFL Tour for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NHL 2005 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NHL 06 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
NHL 07 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
NHL 08 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, PlayStation 2 and PC
NHL 09 for PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and PC
NHL 10 for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
NHL 11 for PS3 and Xbox 360
NHL 11 Ultimate Team for PS3 and Xbox 360
Pet Society Vacation for iPhone
Pictionary for feature phones
POGO.de
POGO.fr
Pogo Games for Facebook
Restaurant City for Facebook
Restaurant City: Gourmet Edition for iPad, iPhone and iPod touch
RISK: Factions for Facebook
Road Trippin' for iPad, iPhone and iPod touch
The Saboteur (loss of The Midnight Club access) for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
Party Play Mode in SCRABBLE (Hasbro version) for iPad
The Simpsons Game for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
The Simpsons: Tapped Out for 1st and 2nd generation iPhone and iPod touch
SimSocial on Facebook
The Sims Carnival
The Sims DJ for feature phones
The Sims 2 for PC/MAC and TheSims2.com
The Sims 3 Pets for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
Six Gun Galaxy for Facebook and web
SKATE for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
Spare Parts for PlayStation 3 Xbox 360
Spore for iPod and feature phones
Starship Command for Facebook
Tee Shot Live for iPhone and iPod Touch
Tetris for feature phones
Tetris Free for iPhone and iPod touch
Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 05 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 06 for PC, PlayStation 2, Xbox and Xbox 360
Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 07 for PC, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, PlayStation Portable, Xbox and Xbox 360
Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 08 for PC, PlayStation 2 PlayStation 3, PlayStation Portable and Xbox 360
Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 09 for feature phones, PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360
Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 10 for PlayStation Portable, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii
Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 11 for feature phones, PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360
TimeSplitters 3: Future Perfect for Xbox and PlayStation 2
Total Club Manager 06 for PlayStation 2
Trenches II for iPad, iPhone and iPod touch
Troublemakers for iPad, iPhone and iPod touch
UEFA Champions League 2004-2005 for PC, PlayStation 2 and Xbox
UEFA Champions League 2006-2007 for PlayStation 2 and PlayStation Portable
UEFA Champions League 07 for PC and Xbox 360
UEFA EURO 2008 for PC PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360
Warhammer Online: Wrath of Heroes for PC
World Series Superstars for Facebook
YAHTZEE for Palm

And thats just 1 publisher.......

Ps: sorry for the huge length ( I should be used to saying that by now )

 

[BRiT]

Which is why people really shouldn't be surprised when they buy a yearly remix of a title. By now they should know and expect that it will likely be disabled in a year or two. The real solution is to boycott those titles.

 

[AlNom]

New gen in 2018? Maybe if we consider Nintendo's new platform as the start of a new generation. I wouldn't, yet.

Last gen starts when Nintendo says it does.