Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[Lalaland]

Intel don't care about consoles or any other low margin business for that matter. They were in with OG Xbox when it involved bugger all extra work and got out again when it looked like involving any significant amount of work. Their fab process is literally peerless so anyone else hitting 10 nm for 2018 is highly doubtful in my book. Nvidia fired off two duds in a row with OG Xbox NV2A and RSX while also being litigous so I can't see anyone touching them and the long awaited Denver with a barge pole.


Surprised at how bullish some folks are on the cost for 16GB of HBM, I can only see this if the costs and fail rates are at least 2x better than just slapping more GDDR chips on the m/b. Is it really that simple to implement?

Cost is still king in console land on all sides and I can't see the bean counters in s/w being too keen on 3 year console refresh cycles. As a cynic I would also expect another mechanical drive for system storage with maybe 64 or 128 GB of flash cache (likely as a hybrid HDD). X-point is off the table as it's not an industry standard and Intel will be making too much money caning it off the server space if it takes off to be bothered with the low margins in consoles

 

[Esrever]

The industry is in a bit of a bind with the console makers launching underpowered hardware after such a long previous generation. Xbox One will probably run the latest third party AAA games for another year before graphical compromises outside of just fps and resolution become apparent. What then? Will Microsoft be willing to continue with Xbox One until 2019 or 2020 to be able to make massive leap spec wise?

I guess the big benefit this gen is that consoles have become less expensive faster and people are buying them sooner which is good for game developers.

I have no idea where you are getting this from but the xbox one is more than capable of running games coming out as long as games are targeting it. Games will likely run better as the console ages rather than worse as devs get to know the console and knows how optimize for it. I have no idea where you came up with your assumptions but those have never been the case with the last gen and won't be the case with this gen.

 

[Megadrive1988]

I strongly believe there will not be any mid-generation upgrade of PS4 or Xbox One.

The next gen Xbox won't release before Q4 2018, so 2017 isn't happening.

I think next-gen console power consumption will go up from this gen, but nothing that's really high. 180~195w

10nm for sure, not 14/16nm.

$400 price

Each will use a single SoC / APU. Much better CPU setup (Zen or Zen+ 8-12 cores). No less than 10 Tflops. the most efficient HBM2 possible. No idea about the amount though.

Microsoft in 2018, probably nudging Sony to release at the same time. Both will be capable of native 4K games, but most high end games will run at native 1080+ upscaled to 4K.
The native 4K games that would happen on 9th gen consoles would either have modest graphics, 30fps or both. The majority of next gen games being 1080p or well below native 4K would
be able to have the most improvement in graphical fidelity.

 

[mpg1]

I have no idea where you are getting this from but the xbox one is more than capable of running games coming out as long as games are targeting it. Games will likely run better as the console ages rather than worse as devs get to know the console and knows how optimize for it. I have no idea where you came up with your assumptions but those have never been the case with the last gen and won't be the case with this gen.

First party/exclusives will be ok but multiplatform games will suffer. These consoles are not as unique in terms of hardware as previous generations. It is basically a mass produced off the shelf pc stanardized spec. I think Dx 12 will close the some of the console advantage gap as well.

Xbox One is basically able to run games as well as a low-budget pc(i3/750ti) right now. By 2017 it will be running the latest AAA multiplatform games as well as a no-budget pc.

 

[Esrever]

First party/exclusives will be ok but multiplatform games will suffer. These consoles are not as unique in terms of hardware as previous generations. It is basically a mass produced off the shelf pc stanardized spec. I think Dx 12 will close the some of the console advantage gap as well.

Xbox One is basically able to run games as well as a low-budget pc(i3/750ti) right now. By 2017 it will be running the latest AAA multiplatform games as well as a no-budget pc.

Nobody is going to develop games targeting PCs and then port them to xbox.

 

[Gubbi]

Yes, 14nm is basically 20nm density-wise due. There's a little gain, but not significant. 14nm would allow a higher clock though. So we may see fewer shaders, but at a higher clock (maybe 1.2-1.3 GHz).

Depends on the foundry. Intel has high density interconnect, so do Samsung. TSMC seems to be reusing 20nm design rules for interconnect; I'd expect that to improve by 2017 though.

Cheers

 

[mpg1]

Nobody is going to develop games targeting PCs and then port them to xbox.

Xbox isn't the target this gen anyhow. PS4 is the lead development platform. Most multiplatform AAA games are targeted with 1080p on PS4 and optimized around that.

 

[dobwal]

Xbox One is basically able to run games as well as a low-budget pc(i3/750ti) right now. By 2017 it will be running the latest AAA multiplatform games as well as a no-budget pc.

And? The 360 and PS3 spent a rather significant portion of their lifecycles in the presence of cpus and gpus that were far more powerful. PC GPU and CPU power do not dictate the length of a console cycle, sales do.

 

[London Geezer]

Also remember what percentage of games are actually pushing the hardware right now. Not that many, in an ocean of indie titles that go for style before performance.

In terms of characters we won't get much better than Until Dawn levels of detail. Environments won't get much better than - trying not to think of a name - whatever pretty landscape-y game we see today!

And that will be just fine! Next time around the grass will be more grassy and the people will be more people-y but really, we're so far in the realm of diminishing returns, the hardware will matter even less than it does today.

We'll get a new gen when the market is ready. Not when the fanboys want MOAH POWAH!!!!1!!1 or whenever Sony/MS decide we NEED 4K games. You know how it is.

 

[DieH@rd]

/wrong thread

 

[Esrever]

Xbox isn't the target this gen anyhow. PS4 is the lead development platform. Most multiplatform AAA games are targeted with 1080p on PS4 and optimized around that.

Thats been the case this whole gen. Whats going to change in a year to make it so a new xbox is needed? It will be the same old as always. 1080p on ps4 and 900p on xbox one with some titles doing better then that when devs optimize better for xbox. And there is nothing wrong with that.

 

[Clukos]

I said previously that i expect full on SSD in the next gen consoles. Changed my mind, i was thinking about this and it makes more sense if they go for 1TB SSHD with let's say 64GB mlc nand(or whatever is the go-to cost/longevity at the time, i hear Samsung's 3D tlc V-Nand is pretty good in the 850 evos) + regular HDD space and when a game boots it transfers it to the SSD partition. Would make more sense cost wise for both Sony and MS and it would provide a huge enough boost to make a difference. That is if it's viable by 2020 which i expect it would be but you never know.

 

[fehu]

This time microsoft included 8GB of nand cache for fast wakeup, with any way that they can use that nand they chosed fast wakeup!
Anyway
It has a cost that must be summed to the hd, and in a year samsung will release the 256Gb 3d tlc nands lowering the price per GB in the rotating platters range. Hope next time they finally go full ssd.

 

[Clukos]

This time microsoft included 8GB of nand cache for fast wakeup, with any way that they can use that nand they chosed fast wakeup!
Anyway
It has a cost that must be summed to the hd, and in a year samsung will release the 256Gb 3d tlc nands lowering the price per GB in the rotating platters range. Hope next time they finally go full ssd.

But that would be a waste of resources, i'd prefer that they'd spend that extra money on CPU/GPU/RAM instead of full on SSD. An SSHD with 64/80GB of SSD storage seems like the best possible solution right now imo. You can always keep the OS on the SSD and move games when you launch them into the remaining SSD storage. You get a snappy OS, and really fast game performance. Of course that's all hypothetical and if SSD prices drop below normal HDDs it wouldn't make sense to have an SSHD when you can get better performance for the same/lower price.

 

[Lalaland]

Yeah a hybrid set up with 64 or 128GB of flash on the m/b or in the drive seems like a better match from a cost/performance point of view than an SSD (too expensive for 512GB or 1 TB) or another mechanical HDD (too slow). I agree I'd prefer the money that might go on a big SSD be thrown at the GPU instead. If you want or can afford a big SSD then the option is there on both platforms to retrofit today.

 

[mpg1]

Phil Spencer fully expects there will be another Xbox console:

http://wccftech.com/spencer-fully-e...microsoft-halo-to-be-critical-for-windows-10/

 

[ShyGuy]

AMD APU - 16 Core CPU @ 2.5GHz / 15-20 TFLOP GPU. 128GB's of GDDR5 RAM. 2TB HDD. Winter 2019 release - Do it MS !!

 

[mpg1]

AMD APU - 16 Core CPU @ 2.5GHz / 15-20 TFLOP GPU. 128GB's of GDDR5 RAM. 2TB HDD. Winter 2019 release - Do it MS !!

I think you are overestimating the flops and memory by at least 2x.

 

[Rangers]

Phil Spencer says there will most likely be another Xbox at least...start your engines gentlemen!

http://www.theverge.com/2015/12/10/...16-interview-crackdown-3-quantum-break-recore

As televisions, computers, and smart devices become the all-in-one-devices that seek to displace consoles, does Xbox just become an app or a storefront or a brand?

"No," Spencer says, "I fully expect that you’ll see another console from us […] Our best customers are Xbox console customers, and I want to keep those people engaged both on the Xbox One and anything we might do in the future. I’m 100 percent committed to that."

"I don’t want to dilute what the Xbox console customer feels," says Spencer. "I want to expand what we’re able to do for more customers."

And yes I dont think this is a no brainer/not worth posting, with all the talk of moving to cloud, no next gen consoles, MS quitting biz, etc. This thread is confirmed not for naught.

Maybe this is the wrong place to post it maybe Xbox News? I dont know. I will post it in both.

 

[Scott_Arm]

They're not even close to dumping consoles. There was always going to be another xbox. The console market would have to contract before they'd abandon it altogether. No signs of that happening. More likely it slowly morphs into a PC, or low end PCs slowly morph into Xbox.