Gears of War 2
- Thread starter RenegadeRocks
- Start date
I wonder how much this can sell? Capps makes some allusion there in passing (most likely not serious) of breaking GTA and Halos sales records.
By my count, 360 install USA NPD now is 10 million, 7 more months at 200k=1.4, 1.5 Nov+Dec, 2.9. But in reality with price cuts and such you've got a lot of upside on that, even 200k/month is low, so I think 4m is decent, so basically through december you've got a US install base at about 14m. Total 360 sales including Europe, well right now might be 7m outside usa, keep the same 70% ratio, looking at 9.8~10.
So total Gears 2 could be selling into 24 million install. 8 million? 12 million?
By my count, 360 install USA NPD now is 10 million, 7 more months at 200k=1.4, 1.5 Nov+Dec, 2.9. But in reality with price cuts and such you've got a lot of upside on that, even 200k/month is low, so I think 4m is decent, so basically through december you've got a US install base at about 14m. Total 360 sales including Europe, well right now might be 7m outside usa, keep the same 70% ratio, looking at 9.8~10.
So total Gears 2 could be selling into 24 million install. 8 million? 12 million?
A curious thing with sequels though is that they tend to sell less to larger install bases. Look at PS2's sequels to big sellers and you see a history of dwindling sales. I wonder if games with a sequel number get somewhat overlooked by new owners? eg. GT3 was out in '01 and sold almost 15 million with PS2 install base of ~47 million . GT4 sold less than 9 million in '04/'05 to an install base of 80 million (all figures from VGCharz). Of the order of double the install base yet half the sales. Okay, the racer genre is a little different, but you'll find the same for lots and lots of games - sequels sell less to larger userbases. Halo did increase, but more than double the install base only increased sequel sales by 30%.
I don't think there's any truth to that at all. For most people COD4 is their first contact with the franchise, yet it's probably one of 3 best sellers this generation. You have a lot of franchises which sales declined as years went on, but at the same time you have a lot of franchises that grew stronger with time.
My bet is that GoW2 is going to sell at least 3 millions first month (regardless whether it's 8+/10 or 10/10 game) and then it could do insane numbers if it's word of month is very good. I doubt it could reach COD4 level of sales though as it's only on one platform. But Halo 3 level? Possible.
It's Gears2. It'll be in Nov. It's going to be aimed right at heart of 360 owners. It'll sell more than the orignial despite whatever armchair analysis.
archangelmorph
Veteran
I agree to be honest..
It's probably going to be a franchise like Halo which just gets a bigger & bigger following overtime..
RenegadeRocks
Legend
I just don't like it when games are marketed like Halo3, I dunno...........the brand gets bigger than the game and everybody gets blinded by the glitz and then after a month we are not even sure whether we bought a good game or just took part in a mass ad campaign.
I don't like it when people say that no game can be like HALO.....it BS, there are and always were hundreds of games better than Halo ! Its just that some people have bought into what was spoonfed to them ......I think those people are in a "Matrix" created by MS's Marketing team and can see only what they want them to see.
I like the way MGS 4 doesn't have "Believe" ads, we will be buying it becoz MGS and snake have always been good, not because everybillboard says "Buy MGS" !
WTF? Why I am saying this? Well, just that I don't want Gears to turn into a Hip Hop star instead of a war epic !
Yeah, my prediction is that it's going to be a monster as well. Is there anybody here who bought and played the first one who is *not* going to get this game ?
Cheers
archangelmorph
Veteran
Whoa dude!
I only suggested that Gears could be like Halo in the sense that it's brand strength (& thus, sales volumes) increase with each iteration..
(I do believe Halo as a series had it's qualities but Halo3 ruined it for me & was a pretty huge dissapointment..)
I'm definitely not caught up in MS' Marketing "Matrix"..
RenegadeRocks
Legend
Whoa dude!
I only suggested that Gears could be like Halo in the sense that it's brand strength (& thus, sales volumes) increase with each iteration..
(I do believe Halo as a series had it's qualities but Halo3 ruined it for me & was a pretty huge dissapointment..)
I'm definitely not caught up in MS' Marketing "Matrix"..
Well , the rant wasn't pointed at you(so relax,
), I just vented out against the shiny wrappers we are presented with when what we want is an experience we can live out for some hours.I think it was just people saying stuff as possibilities and then it spread around the internet as truth. I think it was Mike Capps who said they would only have the lead writer on a comic panel and nothing shown of Gears 2.
Malibu posted about an interview with Capps: http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1150295&postcount=120
Looks like May 9th is when we will see gameplay.
Gears of War 2 World Exclusive Coming to GTTV on May 9
Gears of War 2 World Exclusive Coming to GTTV on May 9
mister slim
Newcomer
A game's launch sales are dependent on install base at release, while lifetime sales are based on install base when the game goes out of print. All those people who picked a PS2 before GT4 came out were potential GT3 buyers.
http://www.gametrailers.com/player/33780.html
http://gamevideos.com/video/id/18698
The video was posted.
http://gamevideos.com/video/id/18698
The video was posted.
Last edited by a moderator:
Inquisitive_Idiot
Regular
Nice job Epic!
The scale is very impressive, and the lighting now matches up with the quality displayed in the trailers for the first Gears of War (eg. shooting your gun cause more shadows to be cast around you, the same goes for when something explodes near an object). The game looks super smooth, both in frame rate, and image quality. The character models, and textures are superb from what I can see. Like Cliffy said, 'bigger, badder, and more bad ass than before' (or something to that effect).
On the gameplay front, they have cool new gameplay mechanics like the ability to take a downed enemy hostage for use as a human shield, chainsaw battles, and a new chainsaw attack from behind your enemy. Beyond those obvious mechanics it was hard for me to see exactly what was going on with all of the crazy stuff exploding on screen. Clearly you fight multiple Brumacks in that level, along with those flying things from the first game.
Anyway, pretty much the best looking game I have seen, and no doubt the big showcase to Microsoft's Holiday lineup.
The scale is very impressive, and the lighting now matches up with the quality displayed in the trailers for the first Gears of War (eg. shooting your gun cause more shadows to be cast around you, the same goes for when something explodes near an object). The game looks super smooth, both in frame rate, and image quality. The character models, and textures are superb from what I can see. Like Cliffy said, 'bigger, badder, and more bad ass than before' (or something to that effect).
On the gameplay front, they have cool new gameplay mechanics like the ability to take a downed enemy hostage for use as a human shield, chainsaw battles, and a new chainsaw attack from behind your enemy. Beyond those obvious mechanics it was hard for me to see exactly what was going on with all of the crazy stuff exploding on screen. Clearly you fight multiple Brumacks in that level, along with those flying things from the first game.
Anyway, pretty much the best looking game I have seen, and no doubt the big showcase to Microsoft's Holiday lineup.
Oh dear, I got the feeling the Gears of War movie was finally CGI !
Amazing draw distance, nice scripted events (the locust horde running at the bottom of the derrick...), good job with AA (I'll with for the xboxlive version though)... it really has the cinematic effect of a large scale battle !
Still, some rocks seem to be low poly and the way the other derrick eplodes is not that great (1"50), it misses particles and debris flying al over the place.
I know I'm nitpicking... otherwise it looks to good to be true.
Amazing draw distance, nice scripted events (the locust horde running at the bottom of the derrick...), good job with AA (I'll with for the xboxlive version though)... it really has the cinematic effect of a large scale battle !
Still, some rocks seem to be low poly and the way the other derrick eplodes is not that great (1"50), it misses particles and debris flying al over the place.
I know I'm nitpicking... otherwise it looks to good to be true.
