AMD: R9xx Speculation

I blame Dave for the lack of activity in this thread. Btw can someone rename this the "??? Island thread"? I don't think they use code-names anymore.
 
I blame Dave for the lack of activity in this thread. Btw can someone rename this the "??? Island thread"? I don't think they use code-names anymore.

Some fellow from ATI said he's still using the Rxxx numbers because he can't remember all the new names for s***
 
Graphics Cards Supplier Expects ATI’s “Southern Islands” to Show Up in Q4.


http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/..._ATI_s_Southern_Islands_to_Show_Up_in_Q4.html

“We are expecting the new ATI Radeon HD 6000-series to be announced later this year, around Q4 2010. After which, we will be releasing our own Radeon HD 6000-series early next year,” said Kenny Chow, a senior marketing officer at HIS, in an interview with Funky Kit web-site.

so ati wont have any refreshes n the mark for over a year and a half ? Sounds like ati is dropping hte ball
 
so ati wont have any refreshes n the mark for over a year and a half ? Sounds like ati is dropping hte ball
Year and a half? September 09 to October 10 is little more than just a year. If you read closely he said that "We will be releasing our HD6000 cards" which infers Custom cards over Reference.

As I said before, Oct/November is a nice time.

And re: Dropping the ball.. I have yet to see one reason for them to pump out refreshes. It'll be way more interesting to see what nVidia does when the AMD refreshes come and the current (AMD) parts drop in price. I'm not sure a GTX475 would hold up well against a HD5870 at nearly the price. GTX480 performance level parts for the price of the current HD5850 would be a major, major ouch.

Imagine HD5850 and 5870 remaining at their launch MSRP (which will remain so unless the 470/480 drop in price) for their entire lifecycle, that's not dropping the ball, that's a complete shut-out... Sweet spot Personified.
 
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Year and a half? September 09 to October 10 is little more than just a year. If you read closely he said that "We will be releasing our HD6000 cards" which infers Custom cards over Reference.

As I said before, Oct/November is a nice time.

And re: Dropping the ball.. I have yet to see one reason for them to pump out refreshes. It'll be way more interesting to see what nVidia does when the AMD refreshes come and the current (AMD) parts drop in price. I'm not sure a GTX475 would hold up well against a HD5870 at nearly the price. GTX480 performance level parts for the price of the current HD5850 would be a major, major ouch.

Imagine HD5850 and 5870 remaining at their launch MSRP (which will remain so unless the 470/480 drop in price) for their entire lifecycle, that's not dropping the ball, that's a complete shut-out... Sweet spot Personified.

I'm reading it that ati will announce the new line up but his wont have them out till the following year. So I'm reading it at sept 2009 to Febuary or later of 2011. Which to me is 18 months.

I also haven't heard anything about refresh parts. sounds like the next thing from ati is the 6000 series and while it might be interesting what happens to the hd 5850 and 5870 , if its not till next sept it hardly matters at the moment. Who knows if those cards will ever be dropped in price , ati might introduce a whole new top to bottom line up again. This is the first time since the r300 that ati has a chance to dominate dev's minds when it comes to a new api. To me watching whats going on it seems like ati after having a great 2009 and start of 2010 is now dropping the ball and letting nvidia start to gain ground on them. The 460 is the first card to make someone really want to go nvidia and its priced right at $200 . Ati is offering nothing in the same price point with the same performance to price ratio and I believe it will cost them market share.
 
I'm reading it that ati will announce the new line up but his wont have them out till the following year. So I'm reading it at sept 2009 to Febuary or later of 2011. Which to me is 18 months.

When was the last time ATI announced a card and none hit the channel until 3 months later?

I think the X800 series was the last one that had a significant lead between announcement and availability and even that was less than 3 months.

Regards,
SB
 
When was the last time ATI announced a card and none hit the channel until 3 months later?

I think the X800 series was the last one that had a significant lead between announcement and availability and even that was less than 3 months.

Regards,
SB

Thats true , but then why would his not have them till qtr 1 2011 if ati released them in qtr4 . I reall them having thier cards for the 5870 the same time as the other partners.
 
As Neliz already mentioned it may be referencing custom cards rather than stock reference boards from ATI. Custom board layout or custom cooler (HIS generally do custom coolers X months after launching reference boards).

Regards,
SB
 
I'm reading it that ati will announce the new line up but his wont have them out till the following year. So I'm reading it at sept 2009 to Febuary or later of 2011. Which to me is 18 months.

I also haven't heard anything about refresh parts. sounds like the next thing from ati is the 6000 series and while it might be interesting what happens to the hd 5850 and 5870 , if its not till next sept it hardly matters at the moment. Who knows if those cards will ever be dropped in price , ati might introduce a whole new top to bottom line up again. This is the first time since the r300 that ati has a chance to dominate dev's minds when it comes to a new api. To me watching whats going on it seems like ati after having a great 2009 and start of 2010 is now dropping the ball and letting nvidia start to gain ground on them. The 460 is the first card to make someone really want to go nvidia and its priced right at $200 . Ati is offering nothing in the same price point with the same performance to price ratio and I believe it will cost them market share.

what I've heard (again just rumor mongering) that ATI is working on releasing midrange to low end (< 5700) with emphasis on perf per watt/die size (really!? can they get that much better?). I don't really understand this as ATi has done this in the past when migrating to a new process BUT from whats going around is ATi won't be going to a new process for SI but instead continuing with 40nm. Wondering if we'll see RV790 style improvements (5790, 5690 et).. I think ATI is more than happy sitting back enjoying their higher ASP for the time being. Honestly it seems as though NV and ATI both are happy to have their products priced so as not to directly compete at the < $225 mark... then again it wouldn't be the 1st time they've collaborated on pricing ..
 
so ati wont have any refreshes n the mark for over a year and a half ? Sounds like ati is dropping hte ball

Year and a half? September 09 to October 10 is little more than just a year. If you read closely he said that "We will be releasing our HD6000 cards" which infers Custom cards over Reference.

As I said before, Oct/November is a nice time.

And re: Dropping the ball.. I have yet to see one reason for them to pump out refreshes. It'll be way more interesting to see what nVidia does when the AMD refreshes come and the current (AMD) parts drop in price. I'm not sure a GTX475 would hold up well against a HD5870 at nearly the price. GTX480 performance level parts for the price of the current HD5850 would be a major, major ouch.

Imagine HD5850 and 5870 remaining at their launch MSRP (which will remain so unless the 470/480 drop in price) for their entire lifecycle, that's not dropping the ball, that's a complete shut-out... Sweet spot Personified.

Agreed, why waste money on a refresh when you can waste it on the next gen. Nvidia did it with their G80 when the R600 released late and slow. Nvidia didn't release a new GPU for a year i.e. G80 Nov 2006 and G92 Dec 2007. Clever work imo. although ATI are going one better and not releasing a refresh(or at least I hope so).
 
Agreed, why waste money on a refresh when you can waste it on the next gen. Nvidia did it with their G80 when the R600 released late and slow. Nvidia didn't release a new GPU for a year i.e. G80 Nov 2006 and G92 Dec 2007. Clever work imo. although ATI are going one better and not releasing a refresh(or at least I hope so).

Nvidia released the geforce 8800 ultra in time for the radeon hd 2900 launch in may of 2007. So nvidia certianly refreshed thier product line up in less than 7 months.

Nvidia has been much better at pushing thier advantage when they have it. THe hd 2900 was late and slow , nvidia at the smae time pushed thier own performance up a notch at the release of the hd 2900. Right before the hd 3870 launch nvidia once again pushed the advantage by launching the 8800gt based on the g92. the 3870x2 was met with the 9800x2 and of cours the 48x0 series was met with the gt 2x0 series.

Ati on the other hand has just had the same parts on the market since last sept. Ati could have easily taken the spot light from nvidia's recent launches. gtx 480 faster than the 5870 ? Sure but hey look here is the 5890 a week before the gtx 480 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5850 ? Sure but here is the 5860 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5830 or better ? Sure but here is the 5840.

Ati l'm sure likes the high profit margins but they wouldn't really need to touch it , actually htey could have raised the msrp of their high end while refreshing. A 5890 could have dropped in at $450 price range to $500 if the performance was above the gtx 480. A 5860 could have hit the $350 range and a 5840 could have stayed at $250.

The way it is now the most attractively priced ati card has been reduced by $30 msrp and its still unattractive vs the nvidia card in its price range. I simly dont see why ati wouldn't want to adjust its line up to make the $150-$250 price range more attractive as right now there is a huge gap there that the 5830 isn't properly filling . To me it would seem even a 5790 with higher clocks on that gpu would be able to replace the 5830 and most likely at much higher margins.
 
Agreed, why waste money on a refresh when you can waste it on the next gen. Nvidia did it with their G80 when the R600 released late and slow. Nvidia didn't release a new GPU for a year i.e. G80 Nov 2006 and G92 Dec 2007. Clever work imo. although ATI are going one better and not releasing a refresh(or at least I hope so).

The main problem is that this time the refresh would be on the same node than the original :rolleyes:. Usualy the refresh is coming on a smaler process.
I think they will just try out the new architecture on smaler parts like 5700 and 5600. And than make a complet new line on smaler node with the experience.

Betwen 5850 and 5770 they still have a giant gap (I dont count the 5830 bastard card which production costs are same as the 5850 just the performance is lightyears away).
 
gtx 480 faster than the 5870 ? Sure but hey look here is the 5890 a week before the gtx 480 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5850 ? Sure but here is the 5860 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5830 or better ? Sure but here is the 5840.
I agree. But ATi has a problem here. Booked manufacturing capacity at TSMC isn't sufficient even for current parts (30/50/70). Three more SKUs would make things even worse.

Anyway, HD5840 (HD5830 with 32ROPs activated) would be really nice product.
 
Nvidia released the geforce 8800 ultra in time for the radeon hd 2900 launch in may of 2007. So nvidia certianly refreshed thier product line up in less than 7 months.

I think you are mistaken. The 8800 Ultra was not a refresh but just an overclocked 8800 GTX. Also, there was so little of them released that some might even speculate today that it was a, damn what's that word, well it was very very limited.

Nvidia has been much better at pushing thier advantage when they have it. THe hd 2900 was late and slow , nvidia at the smae time pushed thier own performance up a notch at the release of the hd 2900. Right before the hd 3870 launch nvidia once again pushed the advantage by launching the 8800gt based on the g92. the 3870x2 was met with the 9800x2 and of cours the 48x0 series was met with the gt 2x0 series.

Yes, as I said, the G92 refresh was released a year after the original G80.

Ati on the other hand has just had the same parts on the market since last sept. Ati could have easily taken the spot light from nvidia's recent launches. gtx 480 faster than the 5870 ? Sure but hey look here is the 5890 a week before the gtx 480 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5850 ? Sure but here is the 5860 . The gtx 470 on par with the 5830 or better ? Sure but here is the 5840.

Erm, the 5970 fills that gap nicely. ATI don't need to have the single fastest chip title when they already have the single fastest card title. They had the fastest chip title for about 6 months. Last I saw, Nvidia's 480 does not beat the 5970.

Ati l'm sure likes the high profit margins but they wouldn't really need to touch it , actually htey could have raised the msrp of their high end while refreshing. A 5890 could have dropped in at $450 price range to $500 if the performance was above the gtx 480. A 5860 could have hit the $350 range and a 5840 could have stayed at $250.

The way it is now the most attractively priced ati card has been reduced by $30 msrp and its still unattractive vs the nvidia card in its price range. I simly dont see why ati wouldn't want to adjust its line up to make the $150-$250 price range more attractive as right now there is a huge gap there that the 5830 isn't properly filling . To me it would seem even a 5790 with higher clocks on that gpu would be able to replace the 5830 and most likely at much higher margins.

No need for any of that. the 5870 and 5850 did it's work for ATI, who delivered over 11 million chips.

The main problem is that this time the refresh would be on the same node than the original :rolleyes:. Usualy the refresh is coming on a smaler process.
I think they will just try out the new architecture on smaler parts like 5700 and 5600. And than make a complet new line on smaler node with the experience.

Betwen 5850 and 5770 they still have a giant gap (I dont count the 5830 bastard card which production costs are same as the 5850 just the performance is lightyears away).

Refreshes before have been released on the same node. Hell, if I remember correctly, the HD3800 and HD4800 were on the same node i.e. 55nm.

It would be wise of ATI to take advantage what they've learnt from the HD5800 and apply it to HD6xxx
 
I think you are mistaken. The 8800 Ultra was not a refresh but just an overclocked 8800 GTX. Also, there was so little of them released that some might even speculate today that it was a, damn what's that word, well it was very very limited.
in the end it was still an updated part with its own launch and allowed nvidia to extend into higher price brackets while further distancing its top of the line product from ati's top of the line product.



Yes, as I said, the G92 refresh was released a year after the original G80.
and the 8800ultra released right before the hd 2900xt so nvidia had something there.



Erm, the 5970 fills that gap nicely. ATI don't need to have the single fastest chip title when they already have the single fastest card title. They had the fastest chip title for about 6 months. Last I saw, Nvidia's 480 does not beat the 5970.
The 5970 isn't very attractive to some because it will only be faster than the 5870 in games which crossfire scales well with. A faster 5890 could also lead the way to a faster 5990 also



No need for any of that. the 5870 and 5850 did it's work for ATI, who delivered over 11 million chips.
Yes and how many of those 11m chips are 5830 up and how many are 5770 and under ?
 
The new 199$ MSRP on the 5830 radeons is just showing the margins on 5800 cards and that the 5830 is surely not a cash cow.(and if they increased yealds than its money waste too)
If ATI release a (test)refresh on 40nm than it will be surely aimed betwen 5770 and 5850. To kill off the 5830. And maybe they could use it also in mobile chip to beat the GTX 480M.
 
in the end it was still an updated part with its own launch and allowed nvidia to extend into higher price brackets while further distancing its top of the line product from ati's top of the line product.

and the 8800ultra released right before the hd 2900xt so nvidia had something there.

Doesn't matter, the Ultra in all essence was virtually identical to the 8800GTX except it had a new silicon and higher core/memory speeds.

By and large, the GeForce 8800 Ultra is the same basic product as the GeForce 8800 GTX that's ruled the top end of the video card market since last November. It has the same 128 stream processors, the same 384-bit path to 768MB of GDDR3 memory, and rides on the same 10.5" board as the GTX. There are still two dual-link DVI ports, two SLI connectors up top, and two six-pin PCIe auxiliary power connectors onboard. The feature set is essentially identical, and no, none of the new HD video processing mojo introduced with the GeForce 8600 series has made its way into the Ultra.

Yet the Ultra is distinct for several reasons. First and foremost, Nvidia says the Ultra packs a new revision of G80 silicon that allows for higher clock speeds in a similar form factor and power envelope. In fact, Nvidia says the 8800 Ultra has slightly lower peak power consumption than the GTX, despite having a core clock of 612MHz, a stream processor clock of 1.5GHz, and a memory clock of 1080MHz (effectively 2160MHz since it uses GDDR3 memory). That's up from a 575MHz core, 1.35GHz SPs, and 900MHz memory in the 8800 GTX.

http://techreport.com/articles.x/12379/1


The 5970 isn't very attractive to some because it will only be faster than the 5870 in games which crossfire scales well with. A faster 5890 could also lead the way to a faster 5990 also

Why is it unattractive? Many people I know actually went from a 5870 to a 480 to a 5970. If they have the money to splurge for the top of the range card, then the 5970 is very attractive. A 5890 wouldn't necessarily beat a 480 or even come close to a 5970 and most probably would end up a few fps more than the original 5870 while a 5990 would be a waste if the 5970 is already the top card to beat. If Nvidia had come out with a GX2 or such type card taht beat the 5970, then yes I could've thought it practical to maybe have a 5990. But now? No. Rather spend the money on the HD6xxx.

Yes and how many of those 11m chips are 5830 up and how many are 5770 and under ?[/QUOTE]

Does it matter? I'd be willing to stake ATI's reputation (snicker) on it and say they sold more 5870/5850 than they have currently sold 5830. btw. I don't work for ATI and I couldn't think of anything to stake.
 
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