Xbox #2 in US and Europe and other market data

[L233]

It's quite well possible that MS became No. 2 this Christmas but I doubt it will stay that way. You see, Microsoft's Christmas bundling madness is over now so things are going to be back to normal i.e. not good for the Xbox.

Pre-Christmas you could actually get a Xbox + DVD-pack + JSRF + Sega GT + Halo or some other game + some Robbie Williams DVD for EUR 250. That's an awsome bundle which added another EUR 100 value to the regular bundle even if you didn't give a shit about the DVD. Now it's back to Xbox+JSRF+Sega GT so demand will taper down again.

Quite an costly venture for MS just to pull the "we're second" PR stunt in Europe.

 

[Guest]

And people laughed at me and my "MS is catching up" statements....

 

[L233]

And people laughed at me and my "MS is catching up" statements....

They did not catch up because of their attractive game portfolio but because they bundled the console with games und accessories that would have cost another EUR 250 if they hadn't been bundled. I doubt that giving away three very good games for free will have a positive impact on xbox software sales...

 

[Johnny Awesome]

MS will continue doing this if they have to. They'll still be number 2 in NA/EU this time next year. I guarantee it.

 

[Magnum PI]

MS will continue doing this if they have to. They'll still be number 2 in NA/EU this time next year. I guarantee it.

you guarantee it ?
what does that mean ?

that you are convinced (as having faith) of it or you have factual and rationnal elements that make you certain of that fact ?

 

[AzBat]

I'm back finally. Sorry for the delay.

Yes AzBat! A question mark on the title would have helped my image of your leanings (not that it should matter to you). I did use xbot thinking it less offensive. As in 'so what if someone sees a bright future for xbox?'. Anyway, as to the real topic-

My original goal for posting the message was just to provide the data and see what people thought. So I didn't want the title to make it look like I was questioning OR agreeing with the data. My subject basically summarized what was included in Microsoft's press release. I made these types of headlines summaries for 4 years in the news section on JPA's web site. Unfortunately for me, leaving off a question mark meant you painted me as Xbox faboi. Xbot means the same to me.

Anyway, yes, I'm highly interested in the Xbox now that I own one. However, my point of this message was to satisfy the "market research" part of me that was interested in the market figures shown in the press release. I leave it as that and continue with my original goal, interpreting the numbers...

Just how impressed should we be with that % growth knowing that in Dec of 2001 xbox had only launched in NA, when PS2 had been available world wide for almost a year and GC had only it's weakest market Europe left to release in. While the 48% stat may not be an outright lie, it's a undeniable example of playing fast and loose with the truth.

I misread their quote. I was thinking cumulative instead of just monthly. With that said I don't believe Microsoft is playing with the truth. They basically said they sold X number of units in December 2001 and in December 2002 they sold ( X + 48% * X ). That's a pretty good view of their growth from last year. Which basically means that their price drop and pack-in games were a much better sale at least for consumers. Now compared GameCube, I believe it's an impressive number. Just remember this figure is for North America only. With Nintendo's lower price point and high quality 1st party titles I would have expected Nintendo to beat the Xbox this Christmas. As for Sony, I can understand why they didn't have a higher increase. Like you said, the PS2 had already been out for a year.

Tommy McClain

 

[AzBat]

Nonamer, thanks for the excellent reply. My comments follow.

It's highly unlikely that Canada and Mexico can majorly affect Xbox standings in NA since the U.S. market is so much bigger than both of these.

Agreed, but it's something to consider. Just making sure people know that these numbers don't include Canada and Mexico.

The NPD Funworld TRSTS numbers, AFAIK, tracks the number of systems sold to consumers, and it covers only NA, so that's 33 million systems in the NA only, which makes sense (gives about 21-23M PS2, 5-6 XB, 4-5 GC).

Hmm, now I'm confused. I now agree that the NPD Funworld TRSTS numbers are for North America only, but that doesn't mean there are 33 million in North America. If I remember correctly Microsoft sold 5.4 million units in North America. If we use the 24% figure then that means there about 22.5 million in North America.

They mean the increase in December sales in 2002 from December 2001. So if they sold 100k in 12/2001, then they sold 148k in 12/2002.

Thanks for the clarification. That makes much better sense.

Don't confuse the NPD numbers with the Europe numbers (see above). You're right on the other points, but it didn't make any distinction from monthly, yearly, or overall sales for the 19% figure.

Hmm. To me it seemed it was implied that they were talking about total market share for Europe, but you're right they didn't make any distinction. However, they did reference November 2002 data.

Tommy McClain

 

[nonamer]

Nonamer, thanks for the excellent reply. My comments follow.

Agreed, but it's something to consider. Just making sure people know that these numbers don't include Canada and Mexico.

Agreed.

Hmm, now I'm confused. I now agree that the NPD Funworld TRSTS numbers are for North America only, but that doesn't mean there are 33 million in North America. If I remember correctly Microsoft sold 5.4 million units in North America. If we use the 24% figure then that means there about 22.5 million in North America.

Ok, I might be wrong with that (I accidently used your number which goes for world Xbox shipments).

Hmm. To me it seemed it was implied that they were talking about total market share for Europe, but you're right they didn't make any distinction. However, they did reference November 2002 data.

Tommy McClain

I guess we don't really know, if they never a distinction.

 

[AzBat]

OK, I'm going to continue interpreting their numbers and facts...

We are very pleased by the holiday results. Xbox is the next-generation
video game system of choice and the clear No. 2 across the United States,
Canada and throughout Europe," said Robbie Bach, senior vice president of
Microsoft and chief Xbox officer.

Hmm. There's another reference to Canada. Evidently later on in the press release they talk more about this and where they get the data.

Anyway, even if Microsoft is #2 in U.S, Canada and Europe, then that doesn't necessarily mean they are the game console of choice. I would think they would need to be #1 to make that assumption.

"With the popularity of Xbox Live, more than
300 games in development and more than 200 titles on the market, we expect to
continue to gain market share from long-time console makers."

Using these new market figures, I can see how they believe they will continue to gain market share. If and by how much I'm not sure. Anybody's guess now.

December was the largest selling month for Xbox consoles ever, beating the
previous record month, November 2001, by 43 percent (NPD TRSTS, December
2002).

Hmm, interesting. Using the 48% figure for December, then that shows that November 2001 sold about 3% more than December 2001.

Also according to the data, December was the largest month ever for
Xbox software sales, beating the previous record month, December 2001, by
80 percent.

Wow, December 2001 was the previous record month? And December 2002 beat that record by 80%? Microsoft has reason to be happy.

Xbox also enjoyed a nearly 4.8 attach rate, the highest for any
next-generation console after 14 months in the market.

Xbox owners seem to be buying a lot of games. Unfortunately, that doesn't say anything about how good those games are. Either these owners are real hard-core gamers or their just starved to find quality games.

Moreover, Xbox sold the
most software of any next-generation system after 14 months in the market.

Great for Microsoft. More money in their pockets. But like I said... see previous comment.

Finally, the Xbox Live(TM) service continued to be a major hit at retail in
December, selling 70 percent more Xbox Live Starter Kits in the first two
months than the PlayStation 2 network adaptor sold in its first two months.

I don't think there is any denying that Xbox Live is beating expectations. In fact, I thought I read that the total Xbox Live Starter Kits sold even beat the total number of PS2 network adapters sold to date. The PS2 network adapter was released at the end of August 2002. I haven't been able to find where I read that or any other source that has network adapter figures.

To be continued...

Tommy McClain

 

[Magnum PI]

Xbox also enjoyed a nearly 4.8 attach rate, the highest for any
next-generation console after 14 months in the market.

Xbox owners seem to be buying a lot of games. Unfortunately, that doesn't say anything about how good those games are. Either these owners are real hard-core gamers or their just starved to find quality games.

ùaybe missing something but when you give two free games to previous buyers of the console, when you give 2 free games and even 4 free games w/ every console sold, an attach rate of 4.8 does not seem so exceptionnal.

i would like to know the attach rate of games consumers paid for..

Moreover, Xbox sold the
most software of any next-generation system after 14 months in the market.

Great for Microsoft. More money in their pockets. But like I said... see previous comment.

same as above... what they call "sold" is in eventually often given..

 

[AzBat]

ùaybe missing something but when you give two free games to previous buyers of the console, when you give 2 free games and even 4 free games w/ every console sold, an attach rate of 4.8 does not seem so exceptionnal.

i would like to know the attach rate of games consumers paid for..

same as above... what they call "sold" is in eventually often given..

Actually, I believe NPD's definitition for "attach rate" is games SOLD. This would not include the free games. However, I'm still waiting on confirmation on that. Till then check this quote...

Not counting the two games that came in its holiday bundle, Xbox is now selling 4.7 games per console -- ``the highest attach rate,'' Microsoft noted, ``of any next-generation console after just 13 months on the market.''

You can find the quote in the following article:

http://www.kingcountyjournal.com/sited/story/html/116705

Till I get confirmation I will say that if NPD's attach rate numbers include the bundled games, then I agree that Microsoft's score of 4.8 isn't so good.

Tommy McClain

 

[BenSkywalker]

Actually, I believe NPD's definitition for "attach rate" is games SOLD.

Actually, if you look at it it is really rather obvious. If NPD counted bundle games then JSRF and SGT2K2 would be the two best selling games on the XBox by far, and SMS would have been the best selling title on the Cube. Pack in sales aren't factored in to tie in sales.