You guys are talking in hypothetical gigaflops which are completely meaningless in real gaming.
That is why Carmack can make the statement he did, and it be true. Because he's not talking about gigaflops.
You can get a lot of gigaflops out of Cell in a very elaborate, trivialized application. Break small chunks of code off for each SPU, have them sit there in the tiny local store and iterate. That has nothing to do with real world games programming.
Not true, die size wise an Athlon 64X2 compares very favorably to XCPU, and would probably be more powerful in real terms.
Anyways, to some extent I think the CPU's in future machines are a lot less relevant than the GPU's, and the GPU's are mostly just a case of throwing transistors at the problem. It may not be sexy but it's the truth.
Edit: looked up A64X2 with 1MB cache die size, it is bigger than I thought, at 199mm^2, 233million trans. Xcpu is ~160mm^2, 165 million. X2 is bigger, but not prohibitively so I think, considering it's probably about Cell size.
At the time the 360 launched, I think x2's, even the lowend ones, cost about as much as the entire system. AMD had no trouble selling its chips at the time, why would it have given any to microsoft when it could charge a premium in the PC market? (I guess they could have farmed out some manufacturing to IBM, but then AMD wouldn't have seen much back out of that)
512KB X2 I believe fits in about the same die size as the 360 xcpu, and doesn't lose much in performance. It's likely even a 256KB X2 (per core) wouldn't lose that much performance compared to the cost savings.
That, or they could have dumped some 65nm Pentium D's into the system, but I think Microsoft learned the problems with that last time with the Xbox using cheaply dumped Pentium 3's (from the last time AMD was kicking intel's ass) as the prices only stay chip for as long as Intel is stuck with the supply.
If Microsoft doesn't go Cell, they'll probably either throw money at IBM to design something that will come out similar to a multicore Power processor or throw money at a cash starved AMD OR throw money at Intel if they're secretly extremely disappointed with the X360 CPU.
You guys are talking in hypothetical gigaflops which are completely meaningless in real gaming.
That is why Carmack can make the statement he did, and it be true. Because he's not talking about gigaflops.
You can get a lot of gigaflops out of Cell in a very elaborate, trivialized application. Break small chunks of code off for each SPU, have them sit there in the tiny local store and iterate. That has nothing to do with real world games programming.
Not true, die size wise an Athlon 64X2 compares very favorably to XCPU, and would probably be more powerful in real terms.
Anyways, to some extent I think the CPU's in future machines are a lot less relevant than the GPU's, and the GPU's are mostly just a case of throwing transistors at the problem. It may not be sexy but it's the truth.
Edit: looked up A64X2 with 1MB cache die size, it is bigger than I thought, at 199mm^2, 233million trans. Xcpu is ~160mm^2, 165 million. X2 is bigger, but not prohibitively so I think, considering it's probably about Cell size.
Yeah, thanks for pointing out the cache thing. I forgot about that, but it's very true. I was qouting sizes for 512kbX2 but 256kbX2 dont lose much performance and would likely be similar in size to Xcpu.
But, I still dont know if AMD, like Intel, would refuse to let MS own the IP so they can farm out fabbing for cost reductions, and that's critical.
Price of X2 is irrelevant though, the true cost comes down to die size which we've established as similar. If AMD let MS run with the chip fabbing, then it's irrelevant. Plus it would gain AMD publicity, volume, etc. Just like what it gained IBM. I gather IBM makes a pittance on these consoles, doesn't matter it's still worth it to them. Keeps them relevant after losing the Mac contract. Same type of boosts would apply to AMD.
The heat and power requirments of such a wish list are just growing too large. It doesn't seem things will go that way with Sony, but perhaps they will focus on lower power consumption, noise-reduced cooling, and performance per watt than raw performance.
Assuming the law of diminishing returns isn't taking hold, and Sony somewhat drops out of the hardware race as predicted.
Many on this forum are saying GPU's wont get much more powerful, so if they are right.
Many of the same things are said every generation, hell they were even said 6 years ago when talking about a potential future PS3. And of course PS3 as it is today would be unfathomable back then. Everybody would be screaming about how to cool the thing. Alas it's not built using fab tech from way back in 99 though, that's the difference.
You can still have rather high performance per watt and have high raw performance, remember we're talking about a console which is nearly a decade away from releasing. So while current fab technology today does not allow for Cell based IC's with let's say 10X the overall power over the current BE(not that it's all I'm expecting it's just a bare bones certain leap in power) to be implemented in a PS4 console today it will be possible in the 2013+ timeframe. I just don't see fab technology to be slowing down anytime soon. If Vince were still here I know he would expand further because he is big into fab tech, I have a feeling he's still here though heh.
I am sorry this is not a PS4 thread so I will not sidetrack the discussion anymore, time will tell though.
Won't fab tech be slowing down sometime soon? I thought 32nm was about the time some quantum barrier was reached that required everything to be SOI to go any lower, and much farther after that and you probably can't use silicon anymore.
Of course, successfully switching to something else could even speed up fab tech development, such as magnetic semiconductors or just some other semiconductor besides silicon. Maybe carbon nanotubes will come out of left field.
Take a look at what's going to ship in PC CPUs in the next 2 years. That's what kind of technology MS will be using in the X3 (if the X3 will even exist).
Personally, I think MS will try to get Compaq, Dell, etc. to make the hardware and MS will just specify the minimum hardware requirements. The X3 will be a PC with certain guaranteed features and performance.
It's unclear if performance went up at all.
First and most obvious, they've only made one move with the Xbox hardware. Don't word things like they have a long, well established history of diverging from PC space.What? They've been going further and further from that route with every xbox. They'd need software unification before they could do that anyway, and they'd doom themselves in the console race if they didn't have something affordable and powerful to sell.
You keep ignoring the main point: The Athlon X2's performance is out-of-the-box, immediately available to everybody. Cell's performance lies in a chest with seven padlocks in the highest tower of the castle, complete with wall, moat and a dragon in front of it.
An extension of Cell would be the obvious choice. They have invested a lot in the arch. and it is designed to scale. Not to mention the software experience and libraries which are being built now will transistion smoothly for ps4. Why would they go anywhere but Cell2.0?
You keep ignoring the main point: The Athlon X2's performance is out-of-the-box, immediately available to everybody.
The chip is called MONARCH, which stands for Morphable Networked Micro-Architecture. It is a joint effort between Raytheon (Quote) and DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the same group that gave us the Internet.
Unlike most other processors, it can be reprogrammed and reconfigured on the fly to change the kind of processing it does, such as signal processing or data processing. Raytheon calls this a polymorphic computing architecture (PCA).
By functioning as a single processor, it reduces the number of processors needed for a system like a satellite or aircraft. More important, it's designed as an array of chips, which allows for teraflop throughput at a fraction of the wattage needed by today's processors.
The current MONARCH processor prototypes have six microprocessors and a highly interconnected, reconfigurable computing array to provide 64 GigaFLOPs (define) of computing, with more than 60 GB per second of memory bandwidth and more than 43 gigabytes per second of off-chip data bandwidth.
With the high-speed I/O structure of the processor, four chips can be combined on a module to perform 256 GigaFLOPs throughput, and up to eight modules can be combined in a processor unit to provide 2 TeraFLOPs.
Current estimates by Raytheon put the MONARCH chip at somewhere between three and six GigaFLOPs per watt, depending on the application, with an average of five GigaFLOPs. The company claims the Cell processor in the Sony Playstation 3 runs at an estimated 2.2 GigaFLOPS per watt and the Intel Xeon runs at around 0.5 GigaFLOPS per watt, making MONARCH twice as power efficient as Cell and 10 times more efficient than Xeon.
Blogger Cahya Prastyanto has a few more details:
According to Raytheon’s presentation materials, the six processors inside the MONARCH are of RISC scaler architecture and are capable of Altivec-like SIMD operations. The processor contains 96 adders (fixed and float), 96 multipliers, 124 dual port memories, 258 address generators, 12MB on-chip DRAM, 14 DMA engines and 20 DIFL (differential IFL) ports capable of 1.3 GB per second each.
But that was a pretty significant move. From using external IP in the form of discrete chips, to owning all the core IP of their console.First and most obvious, they've only made one move with the Xbox hardware.
Second, MS has been working towards unified APIs for quite some time.
Fourth, look at PC price trends compared to console price trends.
Sixth, look at the Home & Entertainment's continued struggle to sell hardware at a price high enough to break even.
NopeThere are trends in favor of my hypothesis.
Where does it says that?Raytheon has already made a monster CPU for DARPA that smokes CELL.
http://www.internetnews.com/dev-news/article.php/3667476