Who will dominate the graphics market?

[Quitch]

What with all the happenings this year, and the speculation on the next generation, not to mention the constant "Wait till the nv40 comes out" posts, I was wondering where people think we'll be by the end of next year and further into the future, it seemed apt what with this year, and this generation of cards, coming to a close.

I know we can never really know these things, but what do you think? Just interested to see if people think nVidia can turn it around next year, or whether the R4xx Vs. nv4x will be a repeat performance of this year.

You might argue that nVidia has a better market share, so let me tidy this up and clarify... I'm talking about dominating in terms of having the "better" hardware. Clever answers like: "Microsoft, they control the API and therefore the goalposts" should be met with violence

Myself, I'd have to say, from all that I've seen and read, I can't see nVidia coming back with the next generation. It would surely take too much of a redesign. The field isn't going to be that much different next year from this in what games are going, and ATI look ideally placed to take advantage of that.

With the generation afterwards, while I see confident posts about the R5xx, the breathing room nVidia need will have been there (or perhaps, simply the time they need), and that is when I suspect we'll see their first real challenge. It takes a while to adapt after taking the wrong road, and it isn't until two generations down the line I think nVidia will have had ample chance to catch up.

 

[Arun]

I assume you're talking high-end only? Or are you talking of the overall product line?


Uttar

 

[Quitch]

It's fairly open to however you wish to view it. Myself, I take it as a case of if I were to buy a card, who would I buy from, and odds are it would be ATI because ATI in my mind simply says "better card". Overall the ATI range is better, there is not an FX around I would buy, only the GF4 Ti range looks worthwhile.

Seeing as products tend to start at the high end and migrate down though...

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

My gut instict is that R420 will will build on the solid ground of R300. ATI are hungry, and want to consolidate on their turnaround. MS has seen R500 and it is the future for them. ATI have a lot of momentum and are starting from top spot when it comes to technology.

Nvidia on the other hand have given no indication that they have had the change in attitude they need. They still think they are doing everything right, even when making statements like saying they don't want to issue more then one driver a year, graphics no longer being their focus, marketing being put far, far ahead of technology, etc. They will still have the momentum and legacy of the poor NV3x to build from and so will be saddled with patching a poor design for the next generation or two.

More importantly, Nvidia's design philosophy of brute force relying on process shrinks to increase clockspeed and faster memory will always be trumped by the combination of elegence and power shown by ATI.

Finally, while Nvidia insist on answering the question of "What card does the PC market want to play games on" with "Cinematic computing, professional rendering and our own custom APIs" while ATI answers with "the fastest and best looking DX9/10 cards we can make", Nvidia will be getting their arses kicked.

 

[Sxotty]

More importantly, Nvidia's design philosophy of brute force relying on process shrinks to increase clockspeed and faster memory will always be trumped by the combination of elegence and power shown by ATI.

This argument is really getting outdated.

 

[Rugor]

I think the 5x(x) series cards are where Nvidia may make a comeback. That will give them enough time to clean-slate the problems with the GfFX cards and start again, at which time it will depend on how much of the old we can do no wrong attitude remains. ATI just has to keep doing what they have been and not get lazy and they can hold the next generation and probably the one after.

However, by the time the 5x(x) series cards come out we may even be seeing credible technology from S3/VIA, XGI, or PowerVR.

So I say ATI next cycle, and probably the one after, but not for certain.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

This argument is really getting outdated.

Actually, I don't think it's out-dated at all.

In order for nVidia to currently compete with ATI's products, they have at least one of the following characteristics at any given price point.

1) Higher core clock rate
2) More bandwidth
3) Core is on a more advanced process.

The exception is currently at the low-end, where nVidia competes well because of feature set (DX9 vs. DX8).

I wouldn't go so far as to say "nVidia is brute force, and ATI isn't." They are both very similar in terms of tech. However, ATI is currently getting more performance "per spec" if you will, than nVidia.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

More importantly, Nvidia's design philosophy of brute force relying on process shrinks to increase clockspeed and faster memory will always be trumped by the combination of elegence and power shown by ATI.

This argument is really getting outdated.

As is Nvidia's design philosophy using above. Maybe if Nvidia started working "smarter" rather than "harder", they would have better products.

Remember, Nvidia is the company that said what ATI did with R3x0 was impossible without the .13 process, and yet R3x0 at .15 outperforms NV3x at .13 at lower freqency, lower temperature and lower power consumption.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

This argument is really getting outdated.

Actually, I don't think it's out-dated at all.

In order for nVidia to currently compete with ATI's products, they have at least one of the following characteristics at any given price point.

We've heard plenty of rumours and finance conferences that seem to indicate in order for Nvidia to hit those price points, they are having to accept smaller margins. Those lower margins in order to drop more expensive cards into lower price points is happening only because of better performance from ATI parts.

Nvidia can't compete on product performance, so they are cutting margins in efforts to make their products competative on price. Not what any company wants to have to do.

Given the aborted NV30, and the overlong NV3x development, is it possible that every NV3x card sold at low margins hurts Nvidia long-term? Especially if it is devaluing their products in the eyes of the consumer in the long term. Nvidia will probably have problems increasing their margins back up to "normal" levels when OEMs have gotten used to low prices from Nvidia.

 

[Arun]

BZB: I wouldn't say the NV30 is brute force. Far from that. I'd rather describe it as "failed finesse" - kinda like when someone tries to look smart, only to fail to do so and then look like a complete moron.

Regarding margins, another comparaison I'd make regards bribing. Imagine A tries to try B, but fails to do so; not because of the amount proposed, but because of the way he proposes it. Now, he really NEEDS to have him in his pocket. So his only choice is to propose even more money to B; perhaps with another method, but the most important part is that if he tries to come back to B with the same amount of money, he's got no chance to manage it.

From my perspective, it's not so much ATI which did a miracle with the R300. Yes, they did a *fantastic* job with it, it's excellent in just about every way. But that's not what hit NVIDIA so hard. If anything, NVIDIA killed themselves with the NV30. Everything about it was a mistake. Too ambitious, and thus too many redesigns. And even some of the features of certain of the final redesigns are simply not working; and that includes sufficent stuff to have been able to claim VS3.0. compliancy...
NVIDIA shouldn't blame ATI for their failure. They should blame themselves, because there wouldn't have been any debacles should they have not failed on just about every aspect of the project. Of course, should ATI not have managed to get such an excellent product out of the door, no debacles would have occured either. And should NVIDIA have managed to hit more of their deadlines and expectations, the R300 would have been a pretty good competitor too, more than the R100 and R200 ever were; not anywhere that much more, though.

All IMO, of course.


Uttar

 

[ByteMe]

Remember you heard it here first. After the R4xx series from ATI it will be all downhill (as in ATI going downhill).

 

[CorwinB]

NVIDIA shouldn't blame ATI for their failure.

Actually, Nvidia is blaming Intel for their failure, no ?

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

Remember you heard it here first. After the R4xx series from ATI it will be all downhill (as in ATI going downhill).

"Wait for NV50"

Jeez, is Nvidia already admitting defeat with the NV40 vs R420? What makes you think ATI won't kick Nvidia's arse with the R500 too? R500 is the product that MS preferred over Nvidia, and it's the product that ATI considered so ambitious and far ahead of Nvidia's roadmap that they decided to put it back by a year. Show me the products, not the soundbytes.

 

[ByteMe]

"Wait for NV50"

Jeez, is Nvidia already admitting defeat with the NV40 vs R420? What makes you think ATI won't kick Nvidia's arse with the R500 too? R500 is the product that MS preferred over Nvidia, and it's the product that ATI considered so ambitious and far ahead of Nvidia's roadmap that they decided to put it back by a year. Show me the products, not the soundbytes.

When I say downhill for ATI that does not mean Nvidia will be going uphill. I predict that TWO other players will make a significant impact in the market.

The reason I say ATI will be going downhill is just business cycle guessing.

So I would say the r4xx line will do fine-
The r5xx line will be a mild disappointment
The r6xx line will be a large disappointment

With any luck nvidia will put out major failures.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

When I say downhill for ATI that does not mean Nvidia will be going uphill. I predict that TWO other players will make a significant impact in the market.
.

What two other players do you think will emerge? Given the large startup costs of making something that could usurp the positions of Nvidia/ATI, they'd have to be pretty major players, and they'd have to have very deep pockets to go up against the current big two companies.

 

[YeuEmMaiMai]

Byte me,


Ati's products are killer performers and do not have to resort to driver hacks to get them to work at acceptable levels while sacraficing IQ.

ArtX really got ATi on track and I just do not see that changing any time soon.

If you have the time and smarts to do so, why not compare ATi 3 years ago to where they are now and do the same for Nvidia. You will see that ATi has done nothing but get serious about 3d hardware and driver support.

Nvidia stated that Intel is their main competition. ATi seems to think that we the consumer are their primary focus. Ati makes a video processor second to none....Nvidia on the other hand just keep putting out bad designs

Ati's products are truly steps forward

Rage 128 to Radeon was a huge step and Radeon to 8500 was still even a larger one but R3X00 just blew all other right out of the water...R3XX to NV3X is like a nuclear bomb to a firecracker.......

Face it in terms of technology for this generation Nvidia got owned plain and simple....

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

BZB: I wouldn't say the NV30 is brute force. Far from that. I'd rather describe it as "failed finesse" - kinda like when someone tries to look smart, only to fail to do so and then look like a complete moron.

I don't think NV3x is particularly finessed. While Nvidia might have had some good ideas, they failed to implement them well, making many compromises, and relying on process shrink and increased clock/memory speed to make the design run at a sensible speed. Nvidia also had too many of it's own agendas to follow. Whether these agendas came into being because of NV3x problems, or whether NV3x was diverted off course by these agendas, I'm not sure.

I think the problem with NV3x design is that they "answered a different question". It's almost like they had some technology and then went looking for a somewhere to apply it, instead of looking at the market they were trying to address. It's almost like they thought the gaming market was beneath them.

They would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for those darn pesky kids at ATI.

 

[ByteMe]

What two other players do you think will emerge? Given the large startup costs of making something that could usurp the positions of Nvidia/ATI, they'd have to be pretty major players, and they'd have to have very deep pockets to go up against the current big two companies.

There are 3 "major" players about to emerge right now. One will fail guaranted.

 

[ByteMe]

Byte me,


Ati's products are killer performers and do not have to resort to driver hacks to get them to work at acceptable levels while sacraficing IQ.

ArtX really got ATi on track and I just do not see that changing any time soon.

If you have the time and smarts to do so, why not compare ATi 3 years ago to where they are now and do the same for Nvidia. You will see that ATi has done nothing but get serious about 3d hardware and driver support.

Nvidia stated that Intel is their main competition. ATi seems to think that we the consumer are their primary focus. Ati makes a video processor second to none....Nvidia on the other hand just keep putting out bad designs

Ati's products are truly steps forward

Rage 128 to Radeon was a huge step and Radeon to 8500 was still even a larger one but R3X00 just blew all other right out of the water...R3XX to NV3X is like a nuclear bomb to a firecracker.......

Face it in terms of technology for this generation Nvidia got owned plain and simple....

Did I say anythng that disagreed with this?

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

There are 3 "major" players about to emerge right now. One will fail guaranted.

(sigh) You going to name names, or just keep being cryptic, thus indicating that you are not willing to stand by your words?

Let's talk about the subject under discussion, not around the subject: who are these major players that are about to jump into the high end of graphics technology?