When will ATI start to lead instead of following ?

[WaltC]

I don't think at all that nVidia is "behind" ATI.

Kind of an odd remark, seeing how nVidia's been clearly behind since the R300 shipped a year ago--unless you'd like to posit that nv25 wasn't "behind" R300 last year (which I doubt you'd do.)

Just taking a look at the pcbs, heatsinks and fans nVidia's had to use up to and including nv35 in relation to what ATi's been using with R3x0 is pretty revealing in itself. If the gpu was indeed on par with the vpu then you'd see similar reference design requirements for both. But since it isn't, nVidia's got to push up the MHz of its chips (by upping the voltage and clocking) which is why you see the differences in the pcbs, fans, and heatsinks. To me that's proof nVidia's still behind.

Then there's the 8x1 R3x0 organization compared with the 4x2 of nV35 (which is just like nv2x.) At best, in a condition where all pixels are multitextured it will be a draw, but since all software I'm aware of uses varying combinations of single and multitexturing, 8x1 will always have a performance advantage.

Then you could talk about fp24--and a few other other things. I think it's clear that nVidia is behind and has been for the last year. Even JHH, the nVidia CEO, admitted as much in his oft-quoted "hullucinogenic" remarks (which, with the advent of nv35, has prompted many to ask what he's been smoking...)

I think both companies are enormously invested in GPU tech, and we really won't be able to tell just what to expect from them from generation to generation.

Which, unfortunately for nVidia and nv3x, simply illustrates very well the principle of "throwing good money after bad"--spending money is no guarantee you will best your competitors, let alone catch them.

I think nVidia unfocused a bit this last round and concentrated on less important things and made a few poorer decisions, but anyone who things either of the companies "doomed" right now or incapable of redoubling their efforts in X section of the marketplace to regain ground and and just deliver excellence in general is pretty sillified.

Indeed--this time last year the 'net was buzzing with the speculation that nv30 would trounce R3x0 handily... Companies like ATi and AMD have long had to endure silly "doomed" speculation, and I agree that it would be silly to say nVidia is "doomed." Rather, I think what is most likely is that nVidia and ATi will simply trade places, with nVidia moving into the second-string postition that ATi held for so long. Being numero 2 didn't doom ATi, and neither will it doom nVidia.

We can't judge the current fight based on just this last round of chip types, but nor can we lean too heavily on the extended past. This is one of the fastest-moving and fiercest competitions in ALL of the tech industry! It kinda plays out as it goes, and is rarely ever predictable.

True, but neither can we judge the current fight by empty speculation as to what the future holds.... But if we judge the current fight by what is happening currently (over the last 12 months), ATi has definitely moved ahead, IMO.

 

[Dave Baumann]

There's a difference in being behing in this cycle and behind in term of general technology, R&D and direction.

 

[Quitch]

I certainly hope ATI is taking the lead... having heard how both companies intend to handle app optimisation (ATI seem to be heading away from it, while nVidia are all for more), I think it will be to the advantage of the consumer to have ATI drive the market for a bit.

The last thing we need is a situation where the new glide has taken over.

 

[digitalwanderer]

There's a difference in being behing in this cycle and behind in term of general technology, R&D and direction.

Do you feel that nVidia is ahead in terms of general technology, R&D, and direction? I kind of thought ATi was taking the ball and running with it, but I don't really know much about what is going on behind the scenes at nVidia lately. I truly doubt that they're really doing the circle-jerk I think they are....but for some reason they just aren't answering me e-mails again. (Piece-o-free-advice: Don't call PR people liars to their face, it seems to offend them. :| )

 

[Hanners]

Do you feel that nVidia is ahead in terms of general technology, R&D, and direction? I kind of thought ATi was taking the ball and running with it, but I don't really know much about what is going on behind the scenes at nVidia lately.

Well, I've heard it speculated a few times that what we saw in NV3x was the beggining of an architecture that wouldn't fully come into fruition until NV50, so from that point of view I suppose you could argue that nVidia are being more forward-thinking (from an outside point of view anyhow).

On the other hand, ATi have been talking up R500 for a long time now, so I have my doubts that they'll suddenly be left behind. I think both companies have a lot of good engineers, so it's going to be a tight race for quite a while to come.

 

[digitalwanderer]

Do you feel that nVidia is ahead in terms of general technology, R&D, and direction? I kind of thought ATi was taking the ball and running with it, but I don't really know much about what is going on behind the scenes at nVidia lately.

Well, I've heard it speculated a few times that what we saw in NV3x was the beggining of an architecture that wouldn't fully come into fruition until NV50, so from that point of view I suppose you could argue that nVidia are being more forward-thinking (from an outside point of view anyhow).

You're forgetting the "don't trust a bloody thing those lying nVidia PR cheeseballs say!" rule though Hanners.

 

[cthellis42]

Kind of an odd remark, seeing how nVidia's been clearly behind since the R300 shipped a year ago--unless you'd like to posit that nv25 wasn't "behind" R300 last year (which I doubt you'd do.)

No, I'll admit quite handily that since R300 I'd give the props to ATi, but then again how many years before has nVidia led the way? Plenty of people have been using "leadership" in some kind of doomsaying way, which is mainly what I object to. They used it for 3dfx vs. others and they lost it, they used it against 3dfx and it came true, they continued to use it against ATi and they stepped forward this generation to say "what up, punk?" and kick some ass. 8) Basically, this part of the industry moves WAY faster than simple predictions can chart. For something ~7 years old, a staggering amount of flip-flopping has gone on.

Each advancement we gain a few more insights into the companies and their tech. The next step change (R360 vs. whatever nVidia puts out before NV40) we'll see if ATi properly mapped out their growth for this architecture or if they stretch too thin at the end and nVidia manages to pull ahead. The next major architecture change (R400 vs NV40) could be an entirely different show altogether, much like R300/NV30 was this time, and THAT will tell us even more.

So while I'll certainly give ATi the lead right now, leapfrogging is not uncommon, and no one is getting dusted. The fight is wildly shifting, but supported by two impressive companies that know their stuff and even after SEVERE screwing up nVidia hasn't been left in the dust--it's just the tarnish shows and their knees are a bit scabbed now. <smirks>

But there's ALWAYS far too much doomsaying going on, and last I recall Apple still exists, AMD hasn't been crushed, and ATi got its shit together and gave us a great show this year. Similarly, nVidia isn't going anywhere any time soon.

There's a difference in being behing in this cycle and behind in term of general technology, R&D and direction.

Do you feel that nVidia is ahead in terms of general technology, R&D, and direction? I kind of thought ATi was taking the ball and running with it, but I don't really know much about what is going on behind the scenes at nVidia lately. I truly doubt that they're really doing the circle-jerk I think they are....but for some reason they just aren't answering me e-mails again. (Piece-o-free-advice: Don't call PR people liars to their face, it seems to offend them. :| )

I think that's rather impossible to say, especially since "being ahead" doesn't guarantee you won't kneecap yourself either. But both companies are huge, have thousands of employees, major amounts of talent, and are irrevocably committed to this market, so I don't see any of them making quantum leaps above the other any time soon. I'm rather hoping the black eye nVidia got this round makes them redouble their effort in the tech direction and stop the silliness, but I don't care for the general attitude that's still been coming out of their house of late, so the snide person inside me is hoping they'll continue to get drubbed for a while until they cut it out.

 

[digitalwanderer]

I'm rather hoping the black eye nVidia got this round makes them redouble their effort in the tech direction and stop the silliness, but I don't care for the general attitude that's still been coming out of their house of late, so the snide person inside me is hoping they'll continue to get drubbed for a while until they cut it out.

Believe me, I can totally sympathize with that attitude. 8)

 

[cthellis42]

Believe me, I can totally sympathize with that attitude. 8)

After all, what could be wrong with the two biggest companies in a market doing business exactly the way I want them to, staying neck-and-neck and fiercely competitive so that we all get the most out of each of them for the least price?

 

[digitalwanderer]

Believe me, I can totally sympathize with that attitude. 8)

After all, what could be wrong with the two biggest companies in a market doing business exactly the way I want them to, staying neck-and-neck and fiercely competitive so that we all get the most out of each of them for the least price?

Yeah, but I'll settle for karma to hit nVidia with a reality bicht-slap too.

 

[WaltC]

There's a difference in being behing in this cycle and behind in term of general technology, R&D and direction.

Agreed, no question. However, my thought is that what has been evident over the last two product cycles for nVidia (if you consider 6 months to represent a cycle--which is probably not fair, but nevertheless is what nVidia maintains it does--nv30 & nv35) is of more interest than construing future possibilities for which there is no evidence at all. Yes, it is known that nVidia is working towards better products, just as the same thing is known about ATi. But a year ago when it was postulated that nv30 would crush R3x0, the same exact situation applied.

I certainly don't think it impossible for nVidia to regain the lead at some future date, and did not mean to imply that. It's just that at this time I think it is fair to state that nVidia is behind and has been for about a year. I see nVidia's chief problems as not being related to R&D, but rather as internal ones relating primarily to management--there appears to be a certain inflexibility within the company--or, lack of vision you might say--that is influencing everything the company is doing. What ATi has to worry about going forward is the same kind of hubris and complacency that has afflicted nVidia for a period of time long predating R3x0 last year. That's exactly why nv30 was no better than it was, IMO.

 

[digitalwanderer]

I certainly don't think it impossible for nVidia to regain the lead at some future date, and did not mean to imply that. It's just that at this time I think it is fair to state that nVidia is behind and has been for about a year. I see nVidia's chief problems as not being related to R&D, but rather as internal ones relating primarily to management--there appears to be a certain inflexibility within the company--or, lack of vision you might say--that is influencing everything the company is doing. What ATi has to worry about going forward is the same kind of hubris and complacency that has afflicted nVidia for a period of time long predating R3x0 last year. That's exactly why nv30 was no better than it was, IMO.

Damn it, you always are so eloquent and so good at making your point!

Total agreement, the problems at nVidia are a lot deeper than hardware right now. I think their hardware problems are a reflection of their corporate ones.

 

[YeuEmMaiMai]

anyone who thinks Nvidia is #1, I have a mirror that states "Objects in the mirror are dumber than they appear". It has been painfully obvious to everyone who can think straight that over the least few years ATi has been outdoing nVidia at every front except drivers. Since the Radeon their hardware has without a doubt been superior and over the last year the drivers have been exceptional.

I have an Intel built PC that is a PIII 850 with a R8500 in it I have another PC with an ECS K7S6A (SiS 745) AMD 1.8GHz Athlon XP and a 9500 Pro. Both PCs Run Windows 2K and I have the faster one partitioned so it runs 2K3 and 2K no video problems what so ever.

If games do not work right I find out why and do what is suggested.


Now with Nvidia cheating stealing and lying their way around, it is hurting the whole industry. Valve should have told nVIdia to stuff it where the sun does not shine as far as I am concerned since nVIdia cannot follow the rules or perform in the DX9.X arena..........

 

[Sxotty]

You know walt Nvidias problem may not be a lack of vision but an overabundance of it. If people get grandiose ideas they don't like to be told, "um sir... that really isn't feasible now" They want to hear oh wow great thinking sir, even if it runs them into the ground.