What are the odds that 9 GIGs WON'T be enough for Next Gen?
- Thread starter BenQ
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Different hardware, different priorities
The X360 have three PPC cores clocked at 3.2GHz, that's (a lot) more than enough for a VC-1 720p stream.
As PC-Engine pointed out, in this case, it means that the PSP's CPU cannot decode an AVC stream. PSP, if Sony wants it to decode AVC videos, have to dedicate some sillicon to this task.Magnum PI said:
The X360 have three PPC cores clocked at 3.2GHz, that's (a lot) more than enough for a VC-1 720p stream.
This thread is going nowhere fast... My 2 cents
1. No game dev can afford to create 20 gigs worth of art content and this won't change for awhile.
2. Most "virtual world" PC games still ship on 4 Cd-roms. DVD-rom based PC games are just now becoming standard.
3, The jump from VHS to DVD was larger than DVD to BR/HD-DVD will be because with DVD 100% of consumers saw the benefit immediately. With HD-DVD/BR only 20% will. Unless HDTV prices drop significantly.
4. Dreamcast died because Sega couldn't afford to promote it properly and fund enough projects to keep it afloat. Also it didnt have an "killer app" games.
1. No game dev can afford to create 20 gigs worth of art content and this won't change for awhile.
2. Most "virtual world" PC games still ship on 4 Cd-roms. DVD-rom based PC games are just now becoming standard.
3, The jump from VHS to DVD was larger than DVD to BR/HD-DVD will be because with DVD 100% of consumers saw the benefit immediately. With HD-DVD/BR only 20% will. Unless HDTV prices drop significantly.
4. Dreamcast died because Sega couldn't afford to promote it properly and fund enough projects to keep it afloat. Also it didnt have an "killer app" games.
No, I don't think it will be a problem. I do, however, think all of your threads are flamebait.
Moving to HD alone isn't going to cause a huge increase in space requirements (see PC games). We already have fully voice acted games with 5.1 surround and full soundtracks. Games aren't going to suddenly become larger in scope because they are on a next-gen console, you are still limited by development time and budget. Outside of HD FMVs I don't see where the huge leap in disk space requirements is supposed to be coming from. Even a game like GTA:SA on xbox is only
gb. If Procedural Synthesis takes off, it should be even less of an issue. I'm not holding my breath on that one though.
The type of games where it is likely to be a problem are generally receptive to multiple disks. I think a high capacity disk has a lot of advantages over DVD but that doesn't make DVD an issue.
P.S - What does GD-ROM have to do with Dreamcast's failure? Perhaps a better example would be lack of third party support on GCN with their 1.5gb limit?
Moving to HD alone isn't going to cause a huge increase in space requirements (see PC games). We already have fully voice acted games with 5.1 surround and full soundtracks. Games aren't going to suddenly become larger in scope because they are on a next-gen console, you are still limited by development time and budget. Outside of HD FMVs I don't see where the huge leap in disk space requirements is supposed to be coming from. Even a game like GTA:SA on xbox is only
gb. If Procedural Synthesis takes off, it should be even less of an issue. I'm not holding my breath on that one though.The type of games where it is likely to be a problem are generally receptive to multiple disks. I think a high capacity disk has a lot of advantages over DVD but that doesn't make DVD an issue.
P.S - What does GD-ROM have to do with Dreamcast's failure? Perhaps a better example would be lack of third party support on GCN with their 1.5gb limit?
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mckmas8808
Legend
First of all I would like to say that I don't think this thread is flamebait. People that feel nervous about the question will obviously feel that way though.
Secondly hasn't two Japanese devs already express their feeling about the DVD disc capacity? If they are voicing their concerns now, what will they say 2 years from now? To me it sounds like if DOA4 was being made exclusivley for the PS3 the game would be over 7.4 GBs (X360's limit if you didn't know). DOA4 on the PS3 could have possiblity been 10,11,12, etc Gigs.
I think some people under estimate FMVs and think that they will not be used much at all. And some people think that only Japanese devs will use FMV's. Well what is this?
PGR3 FMV (Could it be the intro to the game?)
http://www.gametrailers.com/player.php?id=6580&type=wmv
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon FMV (Could it be the intro to the game?)
http://www.gametrailers.com/player.php?id=6044&type=wmv
Secondly hasn't two Japanese devs already express their feeling about the DVD disc capacity? If they are voicing their concerns now, what will they say 2 years from now? To me it sounds like if DOA4 was being made exclusivley for the PS3 the game would be over 7.4 GBs (X360's limit if you didn't know). DOA4 on the PS3 could have possiblity been 10,11,12, etc Gigs.
I think some people under estimate FMVs and think that they will not be used much at all. And some people think that only Japanese devs will use FMV's. Well what is this?
PGR3 FMV (Could it be the intro to the game?)
http://www.gametrailers.com/player.php?id=6580&type=wmv
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon FMV (Could it be the intro to the game?)
http://www.gametrailers.com/player.php?id=6044&type=wmv
I'm pretty sure MS has done their homework on this just as it is evident that their entire system and services have been extremely well calculated and planned.
With compression strategies, evaluating current and potential space usage for games and "possible" DVD red laser disks that have larger than 9gig capacity in our future, I really think the odds are nil that the X360 will be at a disadvantage here.
Next Gen, I really think we'll find very few games fully "utilizing" Blue-Ray disks space for a looong time.
With compression strategies, evaluating current and potential space usage for games and "possible" DVD red laser disks that have larger than 9gig capacity in our future, I really think the odds are nil that the X360 will be at a disadvantage here.
Next Gen, I really think we'll find very few games fully "utilizing" Blue-Ray disks space for a looong time.
Shogmaster
Regular
Seeing as how 2 hours of high quality 720p WMV9 (the chosen FMV format for X360) HD footage only takes up about 4GBs, I think things are fine with X360 on FMV front. And I can't remember any games outside of Square RPGs having anywhere near 2 hours of FMVs.
Most games I think has about 15 minutes of FMVs on the average. Racing games like PGR3, 10 minutes max (usually the intro and ending movie). With the aggressive compression of WMV9, that's only few hundred MBs.
Most games I think has about 15 minutes of FMVs on the average. Racing games like PGR3, 10 minutes max (usually the intro and ending movie). With the aggressive compression of WMV9, that's only few hundred MBs.
ShootMyMonkey
Veteran
If by the question, you were to ask whether there will exist next-gen games that exceed the capacity of DVD9... then I'd have to say that the chances are ~100%. But whether there will be a significant fraction of next-gen games produced that exceed that limit... well, that I highly doubt.
The claimed WMV9 2 hours of HD on 4 GB is a fallacy. That bitrate doesn't even approach HD broadcast quality. Especially on content that is low luminance or low saturation (an inherent weakness of MPEG-4). Getting that kind of bitrate on standard-definition video with MPEG-4 is certainly within DVD quality, though. It might look nice on your monitor, because a PC monitor is made for purposes like sharp readable text and high black-white constrast. Take it to a TV, and you'll really see the weakness of it. Hell, I'm damn near blind without my glasses and I can still see the color bleeding and the over-quantization.
The claimed WMV9 2 hours of HD on 4 GB is a fallacy. That bitrate doesn't even approach HD broadcast quality. Especially on content that is low luminance or low saturation (an inherent weakness of MPEG-4). Getting that kind of bitrate on standard-definition video with MPEG-4 is certainly within DVD quality, though. It might look nice on your monitor, because a PC monitor is made for purposes like sharp readable text and high black-white constrast. Take it to a TV, and you'll really see the weakness of it. Hell, I'm damn near blind without my glasses and I can still see the color bleeding and the over-quantization.
mckmas8808 said:
Bullshit, the thread is flamebait just like all of BenQ's threads. Why won't 9gb be a problem? How about explaining why it will be a limiting problem first. GD-ROM killing the Dreamcast? Please.
Itagaki complained about it because he said he wants to provide HD FMVs uncompressed. Oh well, he still announced 5 games for the xbox so clearly he isn't that concerned about it.
I agree, though your examples are trivial. But if HD FMV is the only problem, I don't think its much of a problem at all. At worst, the videos will look worse than they could on PS3.
No, it isn't the intro to the game to answer your question.
This probably is the intro to the game, but what is your point? a 2 minute intro isn't going to be a problem. You can fit hours of HD FMV on a disc (obviously without a game being there) at high quality.
You can certainly make a game that uses more space than a DVD offers. The important question is whether you can make that game fit on a DVD.
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ShootMyMonkey said:
Looks good enough to me. Video game FMVs have always been highly compressed. While its great that this may or may not be the case on the PS3, that doesn't make it a problem for the xbox.
The question is "What are the odds that 9 gigs won't be enough for Next Gen?," not "What are the odds that developers could use more than 9 gigs for next gen if it were available"
Even if developers target the PS3 and use all the space available, it isn't an issue if the same game can be made to fit on a DVD.
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Vysez said:
PC-Engine didn't point anything out, he just paraphrased my post.. I was exactly saying there is some case where the CPU isn't fast enough so you have to throw some silicon in the task, citing the PSP as an example.
Did you (vysez and pc-engine) really read my post ?
Don't you remember you said in this very thread:
which is different from saying:
"Exactly, adding hardware support for video decompression in a console would be a pure waste of transistors *in the case it can be handled by the cpu*."
So don't make it sound like you ae correcting me when I am eventually the one correcting you. M 'kay ?
Magnum PI said:
While you are ultimately correct, there was really no point to bringing up the PSP in the first place just to nitpick. It was pretty clear to everyone that Vysez was referring to the Xbox (being the topic of the thread) and not all systems in general.
You're telling me that when I read the following sentence:
"Exactly, adding hardware support for video decompression in a console would be a pure waste of transistors."
I should understand:
"Exactly, adding hardware support for video decompression in the xbox 360 would be a pure waste of transistors."
Please...
Sorry but Ii can't interpret this sentence, even in the context of a xbox360 thread, as it only concerns the xbox 360.
Unless the man who wrote it explains me that his sentence doesn't reflect his mind. But that didn't happen.
"Exactly, adding hardware support for video decompression in a console would be a pure waste of transistors."
I should understand:
"Exactly, adding hardware support for video decompression in the xbox 360 would be a pure waste of transistors."
Please...
Sorry but Ii can't interpret this sentence, even in the context of a xbox360 thread, as it only concerns the xbox 360.
Unless the man who wrote it explains me that his sentence doesn't reflect his mind. But that didn't happen.
randycat99
Veteran
SanGreal said:
This part is a very interesting point, imo. Why do the videogame makers go with high compression on current videogames, if not for space? If I were to put my blood, sweat, and tears into a kick-azz FMV sequence, only to have the life taken out of it when it is compressed to go on the disc, I would find this very frustrating. I, as a customer, would certainly wish the conditions would be in place so the "belt" on video compression could be loosened up a few notches to let the real artistic presentation of FMV come through when it is utilized.
Now I have to step back from this and acknowledge that on some games FMV looks very bitrate starved while on other games it looks absolutely fantastic. I've always had the impression this was more due to the particular game developer bothering/affording to have a high-quality compression rig in their facility (or maybe they contract out the work with a professonal video facility). The results really do shine when it is done right. When it doesn't, you wonder why they even bothered.
I guess my post is all about, for those who do bother to get it done right, and if space really is a concern when using a decent bitrate, then a higher-capacity disc format makes a lot of sense, imo. Some games may only justify a conventional DVD and that is fine. Some games may really aspire to what BR has to offer, and that should be fine, too. It's nice for that capability to be there, should the opportunity arise...
Cool, folks, chill
People, let's drop the flamebait calling, it never helped to make a thread better.
If a part of a thread sounds like a flamebait to you ignore it and discuss the other points.
Of course if the whole threads is a flamebait, just use the bad post report button.
Once relaxed re-read the quoted sentence in its original context:
I admit that my reply didn't textually contain any reference to the X360, and that's probably what lead you to think that I was talking about any machine in general. But I was not.
But I can understand that this may had mislead you into thinking that my reply was made about consoles in the broad sense of the word.
You probably already know that, but nobody said that you don't.
And yes, I agree, drugs are bad!
Relax, chill, cool...
People, let's drop the flamebait calling, it never helped to make a thread better.
If a part of a thread sounds like a flamebait to you ignore it and discuss the other points.
Of course if the whole threads is a flamebait, just use the bad post report button.
First thing of all... Chillax.Magnum PI said:
Once relaxed re-read the quoted sentence in its original context:
The context seemed clear, and it was the next-gen consoles, and particulary the X360.Vysez said:
I admit that my reply didn't textually contain any reference to the X360, and that's probably what lead you to think that I was talking about any machine in general. But I was not.
But I can understand that this may had mislead you into thinking that my reply was made about consoles in the broad sense of the word.
Nobody was correcting you, you know, a fact has just been stated. The fact was that you don't need dedicacted hardware for video decompression in a console if the CPU can handle the decompression calculations for itself. That's all.Magnum PI said:
You probably already know that, but nobody said that you don't.
And yes, I agree, drugs are bad!
Relax, chill, cool...
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
95% of games will not need more than 9GB and 99.9% of games will not need more than 18GB (two discs), so I don't think it will be a problem.
hi there
i have to disagree with this one:
the year is 1998, and 95% of "regular" games will not need more than 650mb and 99.9% of "regular" games will not need more than 1300mb. (even though FFVII used several discs 2 years before).
In 1999, A war was set back then.... dreamcasters fighting with arguments "we wont need this and that..."
what i see here in this thread (and other forums, from xbox supporters at least) is Dreamcast vs Ps2 all over again... the ones that over the years lost the argument were the ones that claimed:
"...95% of games will not need more than 1GB and 99.9% of games will not need more than 2GB (two discs), so I don't think it will be a problem..."
and this one comes from the man him self, bill gates: no one will ever need more than 640k of ram.
the only truth in computer science: Give them capabiliy, and they will find ways to use it.
Costs of development sure are bottlenecks to fill up a BRdisc/Hd-dvd. But not having to decompress textures/music/video sure takes alot of time off from loadings, i see an advantage here. A big one.
give them space, they will find a way to use them....
Oh, and FMV has been a tradition for over 11 years. No way i would like that one to fall just because one console cant support HD fmv and big games in the same disc.
Make it expensive, put hd-dvd... fans will hate you, but will love you 3 years from now.
i have to disagree with this one:
Johnny Awesome said:
the year is 1998, and 95% of "regular" games will not need more than 650mb and 99.9% of "regular" games will not need more than 1300mb. (even though FFVII used several discs 2 years before).
In 1999, A war was set back then.... dreamcasters fighting with arguments "we wont need this and that..."
what i see here in this thread (and other forums, from xbox supporters at least) is Dreamcast vs Ps2 all over again... the ones that over the years lost the argument were the ones that claimed:
"...95% of games will not need more than 1GB and 99.9% of games will not need more than 2GB (two discs), so I don't think it will be a problem..."
and this one comes from the man him self, bill gates: no one will ever need more than 640k of ram.
the only truth in computer science: Give them capabiliy, and they will find ways to use it.
Costs of development sure are bottlenecks to fill up a BRdisc/Hd-dvd. But not having to decompress textures/music/video sure takes alot of time off from loadings, i see an advantage here. A big one.
give them space, they will find a way to use them....
Oh, and FMV has been a tradition for over 11 years. No way i would like that one to fall just because one console cant support HD fmv and big games in the same disc.
Make it expensive, put hd-dvd... fans will hate you, but will love you 3 years from now.
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dskneo said:hi there
i have to disagree with this one:
the year is 1998, and 95% of "regular" games will not need more than 650mb and 99.9% of "regular" games will not need more than 1300mb. (even though FFVII used several discs 2 years before).
Like you said, CD space was already a problem at that time. That isn't the case with DVDs today.
This is nothing more than an urban legend
If that were true, games would be filling dual layer DVDs today, but they are not.
There are certainly advantages to BR/HD-DVD, noone can dispute that. The question is whether DVD will not be enough. If compression technology or whatever lets developers fit the same games on DVD then the answer is yes, DVD will be enough. That doesn't mean its as good a solution as a next-gen format.
Again, they didn't use it this gen there is no reason to assume they will next-gen. That isn't to say they won't. Developers don't have unlimited time and budgets to use all available space just because its there.
Of course FMVs won't go away antime soon, but they are not as common as they once were. The games where they are most used (RPGs), are well suited for multiple disks.
Noone has given a reason other than FMVs for why games are going to suddenly skyrocket in storage needs.
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its all about timelines.... just because the deadline for Cd-roms was early, it doesn't mean the dvd's has to be too. It will come eventualy, even faster if a better bigger format appears. I need a 160gb disc now because internet speeds went off the charts. i could not say the same 5 years ago.
like i said before, development costs prevent games from using the full 9gb (or 7)... but none of us can speak for the future, even worst if badly.. good things always come along.
...
and i did give a good example how use the full space of a Hd-dvd/BRay.... for the time being, it would be usefull to keep the compression near Zero or none at all. Very good for loading times (that dont depend just in the Drive speed, but the cpu speed to decompress stuff also)
i refuse to shut my mind down to this sort of stuff... we all know that hd-dvd will be needed sometime soon.
bye
like i said before, development costs prevent games from using the full 9gb (or 7)... but none of us can speak for the future, even worst if badly.. good things always come along.
...
and i did give a good example how use the full space of a Hd-dvd/BRay.... for the time being, it would be usefull to keep the compression near Zero or none at all. Very good for loading times (that dont depend just in the Drive speed, but the cpu speed to decompress stuff also)
i refuse to shut my mind down to this sort of stuff... we all know that hd-dvd will be needed sometime soon.
bye
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