Pascal:
I was hoping someone else would pick up the thread so I didn't need to.
This is one of the reasons why *I* read a lot more than I post. I like to be fairly exact and complete in what I say. And don't like when threads aren't neatly tied together in the end. (It doesn't need to be by me.) But it can be to messy and time consuming to give the full deal. So sometimes to avoid having things hanging in the air because it takes to long time, I just don't get into the discussion.
But I'll do something "in between" here, and give a short description.
The simple reason for Amdahl's law not working at low resolution is that (as I said before) CPU and GPU are working in parallel. The "critical path" in the work resides partly in the CPU (dependant on CPU frequency), and partly in GPU (dependant on resolution). There should also be some parts that doesn't depend on either of those factors, but instead of FSB speed, AGP speed, and maybe VS speed. (But those parts seems suprisingly small in this example.)
Amdahl's law will work since the critical path looks like that, but only as long as the critial path contain the same work. There's still a lot of work done outside of the critical path, but that's hidden by parallelism. This example has a surprisingly large area were the critical path is constant, but as you saw at 640x480 there are exceptions.
The thing that happens at that low resolution, is that the rasterisation time becomes shorter than the CPU time that is hidden from the critical path, and suddenly it switch to be a lot more CPU limited (which isn't covered by Amdahl's law).
Then, I think you've been a little careless in accuracy at some points. I made the same calculations as you, but trying to get as accurate inputs as possible, and not rounding any intermediate values. This resulted in a 12% error at 1600x1200 1733MHz.
Plot 1/framerate as a function of 1/(CPU frequency), this shold be a straight line if Amdahl's law works in this area. You'll notice a "knee" in the curve around 1333MHz, indicating a small shift in the critical path. Use the 1333MHZ and 1733MHz values in Amdahl's law, and you'll get a lot closer at the 1600x1200@1733MHz estimation. (It was this that made me say that "other factors" are surprisingly small.)
Another thing.
Have you tried this analysis on the medium detail numbers?
You'll notice that the CPU scaling follows Amdahl's law perfectly, but resolution scaling is still completely off.
Hope that was complete enough.
If anybody want to see some calculations I can send an excel sheet.