The game console living room fortress will not be breached by cellphones & tablets.

[zed]

Gaming consoles brought in over 40 billion. So what?

what software sales only? Im guessing youre including hardware & accessories etc in that number
also 14billion is that apples app store or also androids.
If its only apple, than its practically certain apps generate more game revenue than consoles already.

Im a bit sceptical about the $14billion figure though, seems way too high

 

[wco81]

I doubt $40 billion is the annual run rate for consoles.

Here's an article on 2012, sales of consoles at $4 billion total and sales of software at $9 billion total for all 3 companies:

http://business.time.com/2013/02/11/game-over-why-video-game-console-sales-are-plummeting/

Meanwhile, mobile games apps sales for 2012 were estimated to be $8 billion.

THey attribute some of the sales declines to the end of the console cycle. However, new consoles may not necessarily bring back growth:

There are other, more secular factors chipping away at the era of the video-game console as we know it today. For one, there’s the segment of players the industry calls “casual gamers.” If you want to know who they are, look around; they’re the people playing Angry Birds on their phones. And that’s the problem.

The original Wii got these people waving controllers in droves. Nintendo wasn’t able to repeat the magic with Wii U, largely because this fickle group of users has moved on to mobile games played on smart phones and tablets. This will put a serious dent in sales, particularly of portable-game players. “In terms of long-term outlook, the real difficulty is in handhelds because people gravitate towards tablets and mobile phones,” Woo says.

 

[patsu]

Confirmed Apple bought PrimeSense:
http://allthingsd.com/20131124/apple-confirms-acquisition-of-3d-sensor-startup-primesense/

 

[Arwin]

So far not impressed with the way Apple is supporting controllers. Only specially developed ones work and the cheapest announced starts at 89$? I can buy an Android tablet for that, basically.

 

[wco81]

I didn't realize any had launched. So I see the Logitech and MOGA ones but those use the Lighting port interface rather than Bluetooth and they have batteries in them to charge the iPhone?

What about for iPads, which generally have better GPU cores?

 

[Arwin]

So something like this, would work too with iOS? Or would there be an incompatibility with the driver?

http://dx.com/p/ipega-pg-9025-multimedia-bluetooth-controller-black-256612

 

[patsu]

I didn't realize any had launched. So I see the Logitech and MOGA ones but those use the Lighting port interface rather than Bluetooth and they have batteries in them to charge the iPhone?

What about for iPads, which generally have better GPU cores?

When I attended the MFi controller session, they didn't differentiate between iPhone and iPad controllers. The controller vendor has to decide what and how to implement the h/w, the specs were pretty high level (e.g., button names, rough layout, performance)

 

[dobwal]

I doubt $40 billion is the annual run rate for consoles.

Here's an article on 2012, sales of consoles at $4 billion total and sales of software at $9 billion total for all 3 companies:

http://business.time.com/2013/02/11/game-over-why-video-game-console-sales-are-plummeting/

Meanwhile, mobile games apps sales for 2012 were estimated to be $8 billion.

THey attribute some of the sales declines to the end of the console cycle. However, new consoles may not necessarily bring back growth:

You do know that 4 and 9 billion figures for hardware and software are US only figures? While Flurry tracks 300 million iOS and Android users, which means unless just about every man, woman and child in the US has a smart device, Flurry is tracking mulitple large markets for its mobile figures.

Consoles generating 40 billion in revenue annually across consoles, hardware accessories, software and services isn't that hard to believe.

 

[patsu]

I think the "fear" is that iOS have not really made a concerted effort for the living room yet. Apple TV is just a hobby to them.

Google have started Google TV and Chromecast, but OUYA is not really their initiative.

 

[wco81]

According to these charts, console gaming is $27 billion, according to MS:

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/micr...or-42-of-the-total-video-games-market/0115826

But MS is especially bullish ("bravely optimistic") about the console business growing 28% over the peak of the last generation. Actually they've talked about doubling their X360 volumes with the X1. Or even greater than doubling.

Seems like they're downplaying mobile in those numbers.

 

[Melqart]

I think the "fear" is that iOS have not really made a concerted effort for the living room yet. Apple TV is just a hobby to them.

Google have started Google TV and Chromecast, but OUYA is not really their initiative.

That's the real threat. Apple and Google's current living room offerings are not a serious threat at the moment. They do, however, have their "foot in the door" so-to-speak. I agree with what others have said here. Mobile is serious business and there is some overlap among the more casual "time waster" crowd. It won't replace consoles, not anytime soon, and even Apple/Google know this.

Apple's purchase of PrimeSense is probably intended for the living room. An ipad displaying on a TV with an external controller is more of a threat to consoles than tablet or phone on it's own, but the specs won't be able to match consoles anytime soon. All-in-one living room devices like Apple TV on the other hand could if they adopted nettop form factors. In two years I can see nettop-like devices in a similar performance range as the XB1 and at a similar price.

Then of course there is the Steam machines, the recent prototype having good specs considering its price. This will also promote other PC manufacturers to produce similar devices. Don't know how it will all play out.

I wish MS went a different route with Xbox and maybe partnered with Valve or something. If consoles and PCs converged (since they're virtually the same now except consoles are closed) I think it would have been (and still would be) better for console and PC gamers.

 

[patsu]

Apple can also enter via MacMini or iMac. Not necessarily purely
iOS.

 

[blakjedi]

Gaming doesn't need to be saved, the console model does, that's what people like me have claimed. With NVidia's Tegra K1 eclipsing the power of old gen consoles in a mobile form factor, it's only a matter of time before the "new gen" console hardware will also start to seem old, restricted and limited.

Sure, but that's what pc's, tablets, etc are for. I can play games at their best on my pc and also play those same games fully mobile on my laptop or tablet. It'd be silly of me to get a console just for games, that would be a downgrade in every way possible. No, it's stuff like kinect, xbox fitness, and unique ideas like that which are the pull to consoles. But just for games, why in heck would I go console? Again it's not something I really want to rehash so let's just watch it play out. It won't be long before phones are added to the mix and the same games can run on your phone as well as on your tablet, laptop and every other device you own. When that happens the silliness of the "game only" console model will become more clear.

When I saw the Tim Sweeney / Nvidia K1 reveal, it dawned on me that both PS4 and Xbox one will both be eclipsed by mobile devices within their lifetimes probably by 2017. These consoles were already midrange desktop parts *really mobile based APUs*. I think the virtualization factor of Xbox games may work in MS' favor in the future as Xbox simply becomes a brand rather than a console. Maybe that's why they didn't put too much stock in the gpu of Xbox one because the bulk of their other devices will eclipse this system sooner than later.

This will be a fascinating business plan to watch play out.

 

[Pixel]

When I saw the Tim Sweeney / Nvidia K1 reveal, it dawned on me that both PS4 and Xbox one will both be eclipsed by mobile devices within their lifetimes probably by 2017. These consoles were already midrange desktop parts *really mobile based APUs*. I think the virtualization factor of Xbox games may work in MS' favor in the future as Xbox simply becomes a brand rather than a console. Maybe that's why they didn't put too much stock in the gpu of Xbox one because the bulk of their other devices will eclipse this system sooner than later.

This will be a fascinating business plan to watch play out.

Sorry to be a naysayer but,
There is the battery and heat issue which I dont see them overcoming anytime soon, even with 3 node shrinks.

 

[joker454]

Sorry to be a naysayer but,
There is the battery and heat issue which I dont see them overcoming anytime soon, even with 3 node shrinks.

How so? NVidia is claiming 5 watts for the K1, isn't that less than Apple's A7?

 

[tuna]

How so? NVidia is claiming 5 watts for the K1, isn't that less than Apple's A7?

Claiming and delivering are two different things.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Sorry to be a naysayer but,
There is the battery and heat issue which I dont see them overcoming anytime soon, even with 3 node shrinks.

3 node shrinks is:
1: 20nm
2: 14nm
3: 10nm

3 nodeshrinks above the current 28nm are:
1 - 40nm
2 - 55nm
3 - 80nm

At 80/90nm, the mobile graphics cards topped at around 3 GFLOPS/W (memory included).
At 28nm, the current mobile GPUs top at around 20 GFLOPS/W (GDDR5 memory included).
3 nodeshrinks led to about 6.5x better theoretical performance/watt in laptop graphics cards, with real-life performance metrics being much closer to theoretical today than it was back then.

The PS4 PSU is rated for 110W. This includes an optical drive, mechanical hard drive and about 20W worth of USB outputs.
Off with the optical drive, switching to eMMC and getting rid of a couple of USB outputs and we're down to ~90W.
In order to get the same performance as a modern system of 90W within 3 node shrinks, we would need about 90/6.5 W. That's 14W.

By the time we get to 10nm, 14W worth of SoC+RAM+Storage fits perfectly well in a tablet form factor.

Claiming and delivering are two different things.

So now we're assuming nVidia lies about TDP?

 

[McHuj]

3 node shrinks is:
1: 20nm
2: 14nm
3: 10nm

3 nodeshrinks above the current 28nm are:
1 - 40nm
2 - 55nm
3 - 80nm

At 80/90nm, the mobile graphics cards topped at around 3 GFLOPS/W (memory included).
At 28nm, the current mobile GPUs top at around 20 GFLOPS/W (GDDR5 memory included).
3 nodeshrinks led to about 6.5x better theoretical performance/watt in laptop graphics cards, with real-life performance metrics being much closer to theoretical today than it was back then.

The PS4 PSU is rated for 110W. This includes an optical drive, mechanical hard drive and about 20W worth of USB outputs.
Off with the optical drive, switching to eMMC and getting rid of a couple of USB outputs and we're down to ~90W.
In order to get the same performance as a modern system of 90W within 3 node shrinks, we would need about 90/6.5 W. That's 14W.

By the time we get to 10nm, 14W worth of SoC+RAM+Storage fits perfectly well in a tablet form factor.




So now we're assuming nVidia lies about TDP?

Except you are not going to get an increase of 6.5x in performance per watt. You'll be lucky to get 3X, IMO. Even TSMC only claims 25% power reduction from 28 to 20nm.

NVIDIA may not be lying, but it's probably a very contrived benchmark, probably involving a boost/turbo clock and not typical operation.

 

[function]

So now we're assuming nVidia lies about TDP?

Maybe not about their own - where they are probably just 'optimistic' - but Nvidia are as full of shit as every other company.

Look at the blown up version of the image of the console 'comparison' half way down this article:

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2084...generation-mobile-processor-the-tegra-k1.html

A cursory check:

- Xbox 360 is way beyond DX9
- Xbox 360 is under 100W for the entire system, at the wall, powering a billion X DVD drive, 15W or so of Kinect, a mechanical HDD, wifi, memory etc, on a combination of 45 and 55nm
- Nividia are comparing a chip to an entire system
- LOOK AT THE FIGURES FOR CELL IN THE CPU COMPARISON! HAHAHAHA!!

In conclusion: Nvidia are as full of shit as any other company.

Tablets won't eclipse the 100+ Watt 4Bone any time soon, and certainly not by 2017. We'll be lucky if we've moved beyond 20nm for mainstream products by 2017. New node ramp got cramp.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So now we're assuming nVidia lies about TDP?

It's PR, so it won't be factually incorrect, but there's no reason to think it's an absolutely real-world, accurate reference point. Could be something like 5 watts typical burn, peaking to 10 watts when gaming heavily.

It's certainly easier to believe that the 5 watts, 25% of PS4 capability is stretching the truth than it is to believe that nVidia have achieved a massive shift in performance/power and can do 1/4 of the performance at 1/16th the power draw. That'd mean a complete break from the power/performance trajectory of the rest of the industry.