The "bandwidth" issue

[DemoCoder]

One thing that strikes me about the RSX is the memory clock speed. It is almost 1 year before launch of the PS3, yet they are fixing memory to be what is available in the near term. Samsung for example, already has 800Mhz GDDR3 running (1600Mhz datarate), and I'm sure something will be faster by the end of the year. 1Ghz (2Ghz datarate) GDDR3 would yield 32Gb/s bandwidth, or 28.8Gb/s for 900Mhz.

So it may be that there could be a spec bump before the final console is done, based on memory prices and availability for the first batch.

 

[mckmas8808]

Didn't the same thing happen with the PSP. I think the PSP's memory was upped right before it released.
________
HERBALAIRE VAPORIZER

 

[PC-Engine]

Didn't the same thing happen with the PSP. I think the PSP's memory was upped right before it released.

Yeah but the bandwidth went down.

 

[Chandler]

the increased memory on PSP was probably more due to complaints by developers.

 

[archie4oz]

One thing that strikes me about the RSX is the memory clock speed. It is almost 1 year before launch of the PS3, yet they are fixing memory to be what is available in the near term. Samsung for example, already has 800Mhz GDDR3 running (1600Mhz datarate), and I'm sure something will be faster by the end of the year. 1Ghz (2Ghz datarate) GDDR3 would yield 32Gb/s bandwidth, or 28.8Gb/s for 900Mhz.

So it may be that there could be a spec bump before the final console is done, based on memory prices and availability for the first batch.

It's a possibility, but probably unlikely... Yeilds and costs would make it a higher risk proposition. GDDR3 being tied into other products on the market make it more volatile and Sony already got bit once with the original Playstation when RAM availability hiccuped and prices shot up for a month...

Then again, anything could happen, and wouldn't be the first time specs have changed (remember when the EE was shown off at ISSCC, the final hardware was clocked higher). And of course as mentioned already, the PSP's memory capacity and config changed at the behest of a large amount of developer influence. If there's enough concern about bandwidth, the memory specs could still possibly change... I just wouldn't bet on it...

 

[Acert93]

The PS3 is fairly expensive (as is the Xbox 360), increasing the quality of the memory does 2 things:

1. Increases cost, especially for "premium" memory

2. Could create a bottleneck in supply/demand. They will want to sell at least 5M in their first 12mo--if not more. While they are fabbing the CELL and RSX, they will be at the mercy of not one but two memory supplies: XDR and GDDR3. Throw in the BR growth and egad!

A lot of HIGH END parts in high demand. Another plus of just sticking with GDDR3 is that MS is using it also. That means Sony can reap the reward of the economy of scale. Not only will they be using this memory, but so will MS. With a handful of memory makers fighting for contracts for this memory and a large demand it should be cheap relatively.

If they go for 1GHz GDDR3 they will pay an extra premium up front and would have to fight yields.

You know though, the GPU has access to like 37GB/s of bandwidth and the system in total has like 48GB/s, a good half of that Low Latency. Throw in the fast FlexIO and I really see it as a super system.

Still not sure where it will get all the bandwidth to do 4x AA on 1080p @ 60fps with HDR, but meh... 720p is the sweet spot this gen IMO, and at that the PS3 should rock!

 

[DemoCoder]

Well, the PS2 launch was severely starved for availability. I remember for all of North American there was only a few hundred K units, yet they went on to dominate the console business.

Sony has to look at what the cost and availability will be in 2008+, not just 2006. It also may be that 800/900Mhz GDDR3 will be in good supply by mid-06.

 

[Acert93]

Well, the PS2 launch was severely starved for availability. I remember for all of North American there was only a few hundred K units, yet they went on to dominate the console business.

Sony has to look at what the cost and availability will be in 2008+, not just 2006. It also may be that 800/900Mhz GDDR3 will be in good supply by mid-06.

Even after a weak E3 showing, Sony cannot sit around. MS is not Sega. MS has a lot of momentum, specifically in the US where MS would like to win this time around.

If MS comes out earlier AND cheaper, and gets a good job on software that could be a negative. Also, if they are in really short demand in 2006 and that stretches into 2007 developers wont be happy. It has already been a LONG 6 year generation, so come 2006 people will be ready.

If Sony can only muster a few 100k units where MS already has a couple million sold, well, I would not say they would lose the market but it could make it more competitive than need be.

 

[DemoCoder]

MS can't win just by winning US market. They need Japan as well, as Xbox has been a failure in Japan on several fronts. Will the XB360 succeed in Japan? Not if all they've got to show is the E3 titles IMHO. They need better Japanese developer support. Yet, they've made improvements, but a few deals here and there ain't gonna make up for the huge gap they've got going.

 

[quest55720]

MS can't win just by winning US market. They need Japan as well, as Xbox has been a failure in Japan on several fronts. Will the XB360 succeed in Japan? Not if all they've got to show is the E3 titles IMHO. They need better Japanese developer support. Yet, they've made improvements, but a few deals here and there ain't gonna make up for the huge gap they've got going.

If MS can win the US market that would be huge. That would be a major blow to sony and ensure MS staying in the console market another generation. I would say MS winning the US market would be a definition of winning this generation.

 

[Acert93]

MS can't win just by winning US market. They need Japan as well, as Xbox has been a failure in Japan on several fronts. Will the XB360 succeed in Japan? Not if all they've got to show is the E3 titles IMHO. They need better Japanese developer support. Yet, they've made improvements, but a few deals here and there ain't gonna make up for the huge gap they've got going.

They already lost Japan this generation (Xbox 360 vs. PS3).

They have improved in Japan, but they are nowhere near where Sony is. If we are using ballparks as a refence, MS is so far away the thought of ballpark cannot even enter their mind, let alone even doing a drive by. That is how far behind they are in Japan. And even the following generation I have a hard time seeing Japanese consumers being overly excited about the Xbox from MS.

Maybe they will sell more than 1,000 Xbox 360's a week after 3 years in Japan... but I would not put $5 on that.

As for the US, I think it is MS goal to be close, if not win in the US territory. It wont win them the console race, but winning one market this gen would be a big jump for them. They would then probably move toward trying to win US and Europe.

I see them taking this in baby steps--of course, Sony is not going to just roll over and conceed. But if Sony screws up (so far Sony-1, MS-0 for Next Gen... Sony effectively got people to talk about SONY, even though MS is launching this year), which I doubt, but if Sony does (i.e. way over priced, short demand, software is slow to come at first, whatever) MS is ready to pounce in the US. By pounce I mean make it a close race.

I think the investors doing market predictions of 55-35-10 could end up close to how it ends (with a big win in Japan for Sony and tight in the US), but so far there is the entire game to be played. So far chess pieces are in place... lets see how they play out. Still a lot of surprises left

 

[quest55720]

MS can't win just by winning US market. They need Japan as well, as Xbox has been a failure in Japan on several fronts. Will the XB360 succeed in Japan? Not if all they've got to show is the E3 titles IMHO. They need better Japanese developer support. Yet, they've made improvements, but a few deals here and there ain't gonna make up for the huge gap they've got going.

They already lost Japan this generation (Xbox 360 vs. PS3).

They have improved in Japan, but they are nowhere near where Sony is. If we are using ballparks as a refence, MS is so far away the thought of ballpark cannot even enter their mind, let alone even doing a drive by. That is how far behind they are in Japan. And even the following generation I have a hard time seeing Japanese consumers being overly excited about the Xbox from MS.

Maybe they will sell more than 1,000 Xbox 360's a week after 3 years in Japan... but I would not put $5 on that.

As for the US, I think it is MS goal to be close, if not win in the US territory. It wont win them the console race, but winning one market this gen would be a big jump for them. They would then probably move toward trying to win US and Europe.

I see them taking this in baby steps--of course, Sony is not going to just roll over and conceed. But if Sony screws up (so far Sony-1, MS-0 for Next Gen... Sony effectively got people to talk about SONY, even though MS is launching this year), which I doubt, but if Sony does (i.e. way over priced, short demand, software is slow to come at first, whatever) MS is ready to pounce in the US. By pounce I mean make it a close race.

I think the investors doing market predictions of 55-35-10 could end up close to how it ends (with a big win in Japan for Sony and tight in the US), but so far there is the entire game to be played. So far chess pieces are in place... lets see how they play out. Still a lot of surprises left

Anyone have number of what percent of total sales each market is? I would think total sales wise #1 US/canada #2 europe and #3 japan. I could be wrong but I thought the genesis was able to fight the SNES to stalemate till the very end because or big sales in US/Canada.

 

[archie4oz]

Well, the PS2 launch was severely starved for availability. I remember for all of North American there was only a few hundred K units, yet they went on to dominate the console business.

Yes, they were *very* fortunate. Nagasaki FAB1's spinup delays with the GS
were very nearly catastrophic and certainly something that Sony doesn't wish to volunarily induce again...

Sony has to look at what the cost and availability will be in 2008+, not just 2006. It also may be that 800/900Mhz GDDR3 will be in good supply by mid-06.

That's an obvious given, as it's always done. However you also have to accomodate the possibilties of unexpected events (Taiwanese earthquakes, Korean strikes, etc.), and factor in contingincies for it as well weigh the cost measures against all components in the system. Memory is a bit tricky since it's not something the console manufacturer has a lot of control over and unlike PC components, the hardware isn't sold with a profit margin in mind for several years. In Sony's case, they have a lot more control over costs and manufacturing of many of the other components in the system vs. memory, so playing conservative with memory is understandable (and pretty much standard practice with regards to consoles)...

 

[JF_Aidan_Pryde]

Although EE clocked higher in final hardware than at ISSCC let's not forget Cell has been downclocked since ISSCC05!

 

[DemoCoder]

Sony should let MS have their headstart and wait for 65nm CELL or a better NVGPU. They are entrenched in Japan, and can still duke it out in the US market even if they launch in December 06/Spring 07.

They shouldn't have let MS force their hand and control their timeline.

 

[Megadrive1988]

sure, I would love to see a 65 nm Cell with at least 16 SPEs and a better Nvidia GPU with 500M transistors plus another die with eDRAM 8)

but will something like that happen ?

 

[PC-Engine]

Sony should let MS have their headstart and wait for 65nm CELL or a better NVGPU. They are entrenched in Japan, and can still duke it out in the US market even if they launch in December 06/Spring 07.

They shouldn't have let MS force their hand and control their timeline.

That would just mean they'll be way behind in installed numbers not to mention that more processing power is never a guarantee of a 1st place trophie, just look at PS2 or PSP. Even though PS3 isn't that far off right now, I'm already seeing a lot of gamers planning to get a Xbox 360 me included. It seems MS has every base covered this time around which will make it even harder for PS3 coming out later to compete.

 

[DemoCoder]

Look, until not to long ago, a significant amount of PSone titles were still being produced. Developers go where the money is. It will take a long time before XB360 reaches any realistic market size, and Sony simply has a better brand image and better developers onboard than MS, so they don't need to be first.

You really think the reason why X-Box "failed" is because the PS/2 came out first? How does that explain Dreamcast's failure?

Time is continuous, not discrete. If PS3 came out in 2007/8, would it be "second", it would it be "first of the next-next-gen".

 

[Acert93]

A bigger CELL, a better GPU, and maybe more/better memory situation would be pretty scary. It could scare away some developer support like what happened to DC. But it would also give Sony more time to really get their ducks in a row on the game front. Have a slew of titles ready for next gen ready to really take advantage of the technology. I am assuming the PS3 game development front is in a similar situation to the Xbox 360, i.e. not great (most developers are just now getting into full swing for next gen).

Sony would still win Japan...

But they could lose US by doing that too. If MS could provide good tools and some killer games it could be a nasty situation. Yeah, get more power with the PS3, or get more games now with the Xbox 360 and some really neat stuff. (Xbox 360 has a lot more support than DC did).

It could work DemoCoder, but that would be a GUTSY move. It would be one of those make or break moves.

As it stands, they launch less than a year later with some pretty nifty HW themselves. 65nm and a new GPU may 2x their current performance, but is an entire year worth that?

 

[PC-Engine]

Look, until not to long ago, a significant amount of PSone titles were still being produced. Developers go where the money is. It will take a long time before XB360 reaches any realistic market size, and Sony simply has a better brand image and better developers onboard than MS, so they don't need to be first.

You really think the reason why X-Box "failed" is because the PS/2 came out first? How does that explain Dreamcast's failure?

Time is continuous, not discrete. If PS3 came out in 2007/8, would it be "second", it would it be "first of the next-next-gen".

The DC failure was the result of MANY factors, but a lot of people conveniently pin it down to being underpowered which it was compared to PS2. In fact it was underpowered in many aspects that could easily be seen on a TV display. However the DC came out over 18 months before PS2 not to mention was sold for only $200.

Xbox 360 isn't being sold for $200 nor is it coming out 18 months before PS3. Without even factoring in MS's unlimited pool of money, it's glaringly obvious Xbox 360 is no DC.

Now if you look at the PS2 it's not that much weaker than GCN or Xbox from an obvious visual standpoint for most people so that's why GCN and Xbox couldn't overcome the PS2's time lead advantage.