Switch's third-party future

[Shifty Geezer]

As this topic keeps coming up, I felt it should have its own thread, especially in light of the latest UK Chart-Track data.

EA committed to making a Switch version of FIFA, which seems valuable to footy fans with a Switch as there's no better hardware for Football on the go. However, sales in the UK that weren't on XB1 or PS4 accounted for only 3%! Spread between PS360 and Switch.

If the Switch market for FIFA is so tiny, does that point to the same problem Nintendo has had before of its fans not being massively interested in mainstream console titles? And thus do Switch owners need a second machine to play major 3rd party titles? Or is FIFA anomalous?

 

[Picao84]

As this topic keeps coming up, I felt it should have its own thread, especially in light of the latest UK Chart-Track data.

EA committed to making a Switch version of FIFA, which seems valuable to footy fans with a Switch as there's no better hardware for Football on the go. However, sales in the UK that weren't on XB1 or PS4 accounted for only 3%! Spread between PS360 and Switch.

If the Switch market for FIFA is so tiny, does that point to the same problem Nintendo has had before of its fans not being massively interested in mainstream console titles? And thus do Switch owners need a second machine to play major 3rd party titles? Or is FIFA anomalous?

Well, XB1 and PS4 have already a much larger install base, so I don't think it makes much sense to make that comparison just yet. In other words, were you expecting for people who do not have a Switch yet to buy the game anyway?

 

[Nesh]

I am sure people interested in sports games already bought a PS4 or One. Also Football gamers are the kind of people that enjoy watching football on the big screens with friends and that may very well translate to wanting a replication of that experience in a video game=playing football games with friends on a big TV accompanied by beer.

Nintendo consoles mainly attract gamers for the Nintendo experience. Fifa games are an unknown quantity for Nintendo consoles, so it is expected that the gamer wanting to play Fifa did not go for Nintendo.
Fifa on Switch is almost like a bonus surprise.

Sports games especially those that carry official licenses are console sellers and thats not a genre where Nintendo consoles were known for.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Well, XB1 and PS4 have already a much larger install base, so I don't think it makes much sense to make that comparison just yet. In other words, were you expecting for people who do not have a Switch yet to buy the game anyway?

Indeed without knowing how many Switches Nintendo sold in the UK its hard to say anything. As you mentioned everybody that wants to play a football game probably already has a PS4/Xbox One as I can't remember the last time EA made a good FIFA game for a Nintendo console.

It's probably going to take a good FIFA or two on Switch before sales start picking up (compared tot the number of Switches sold). It is going to take a while for Switch sales numbers to go up and for gamers to realize EA will put out quality FIFA games on Switch.

 

[Goodtwin]

The UK is one of Nintendo's worst markets, and like others have said, we do not know how many Switch units have sold there. I believe that EA will have access to all the numbers, and more importantly than sell through will be the attach rate for Fifa on a global scale. If Fifa on Switch bombs in the next media create chart, then perhaps there is reason for concern.

If the Switch market for FIFA is so tiny, does that point to the same problem Nintendo has had before of its fans not being massively interested in mainstream console titles?

I do not believe this is even a question anymore. There is a long history of third party multi plat games selling the least on Nintendo consoles. Gamecube and Xbox had similar install bases, but third party games generally sold much better on Xbox. The questions will be just how severe it will be, and if the publishers can turn a profit or not. If Switch continues to sell well, but third party multi plat games do not, I would have to conclude that their absence will not be detrimental to fortunes of the platform.

Bandai Namco ported Dragonball Xenoverse 2 to Switch with expectations pretty modest. Their initial shipment in Japan was only about 35-40k. They have nearly sold through this shipment, but it shows that they weren't expecting huge sales. Why do this? I believe to cultivate a market on Switch for future releases. Perhaps reception for many of these games will be luke warm to start, but with some persistence they can grow the third party market potential within the Switch userbase.

 

[Arwin]

EA will likely do just this one new platform properish release and then just roster updates for the rest of its lifespan, as per usual on the small platforms unless something changes big time. I do sense there is some buzz for the Switch, it might still take off.

 

[milk]

If I were ninty, I'd gift every major sportsman a switch with its related game. I often see football players playing fifa on their hotels or on intervals between trains on a playstation when reporters go check in on them. They seem like the type of people who would love the portable nature of the kit since they are on the go ao often. They could get some free publicity with that.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

If the Switch market for FIFA is so tiny, does that point to the same problem Nintendo has had before of its fans not being massively interested in mainstream console titles?

I'd say yes.
Big mainstream console titles nowadays are mostly multiplayer titles, or games with a heavy multiplayer component.
The Switch is not only is terrible for online multiplayer (voice chat using smartphone apps because let's save $0.20 on mics is downright Darwin-Award-esque), but you also need a critical mass for it to work, which the Switch doesn't have despite the gaming press continuously telling us it's selling super-millions.

And thus do Switch owners need a second machine to play major 3rd party titles? Or is FIFA anomalous?

Anecdotal experience: Have a friend to bought a Switch on day one. A month after he had it, he said it was awesome because Zelda is awesome. 3 months after he had it he said it was awesome because it's portable so he said it was his main console at the time. He was playing Splatoon at that time.
During the last 2 months, I always see him online on PSN, playing Fifa 17. Now he's always online playing Fifa 18. For him, I think the fad is gone.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

As this topic keeps coming up, I felt it should have its own thread, especially in light of the latest UK Chart-Track data.

EA committed to making a Switch version of FIFA, which seems valuable to footy fans with a Switch as there's no better hardware for Football on the go. However, sales in the UK that weren't on XB1 or PS4 accounted for only 3%! Spread between PS360 and Switch.

If the Switch market for FIFA is so tiny, does that point to the same problem Nintendo has had before of its fans not being massively interested in mainstream console titles? And thus do Switch owners need a second machine to play major 3rd party titles? Or is FIFA anomalous?

The next few NPDs until the end of the year are going to be the interesting ones.

This next NPD will have Mario + Rabbids. Hopefully someone will release a press release on it as even if it does well, it may not chart (single platform). As well, it will be interesting to see whether there are any press releases regarding Doom, Wolfenstein 2, or Skyrim.

Contrary to ToTTen's experiences. Everyone on the Co-Optional podcast still raves about it and uses it daily. And the one person on the podcast that didn't think he'd game on the Switch is now gaming on the Switch. This is months and months after Zelda. That said, however. It's mostly the 3rd party indie support for the platform which is keeping people engaged with it. Although, to be fair, for the people on the podcast (2 of the 3) who love X-Com, Mario + Rabbids is now taking up a lot of their time.

For RL friends. The Switch gets used about as much as the PS4 while the XBO is lagging far behind. The difference right now is that the PS4 gets mostly used for AAA games while the Switch see's equal time split between AAA and Indie games.

To me that points to the Switch being much closer to the PC platform with regards to player engagement. IE - what titles people are playing. While the PC gets a lot of media/forum attention for the superior quality of AAA multiplats, the majority of PC games that get played are indie games for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which is that the majority of PC owners don't have machines capable of playing that latest AAA releases.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If Switch continues to sell well, but third party multi plat games do not, I would have to conclude that their absence will not be detrimental to fortunes of the platform.

I argue that it would be detrimental, but not critical. That is, if Switch had a better library and more 3rd party titles, it'd sell more units, and without it'll sell less. If Nintendo could make a machine that attracted the 3rd parties alongside their first party line-up, they'd have a killer 1-2 to potentially dominate the industry like they used to. After months of debating Switch's technical capacity to accept ports, it almost seems a moot point if the device gets abandoned like so many others. And you have to wonder how that reinforces Nintendo's mindset into not bothering about making 3rd-party appealing machines.

 

[Goodtwin]

According to Media Create charts, Fifa sold about 13k on Switch compared to 55k on PS4 in Japan. Not as good as I would have hoped. Perhaps it will see some legs, but I think Fifa is really going to need to do well in France and Germany (two strong markets for Nintendo in Europe) if it is going to meet EA's expectations. Digital sales bring much better margins, so if it does decent there it will help prop it up. I suppose a good question would be what is an acceptable sell through for a Fifa game on a new console with a userbase around 6 million? 250k? 500k?

 

[Goodtwin]

Fifa 18 has charted on Amazon in both France and Germany since release. It need to do well in those territories in order to have any chance of doing "ok" in sales. I think 250k in sales in the most likely at this point. I suppose keeping an eye on the charts during the Christmas holiday will be important to spot any signs of a sales surge. I really think that hitting the 500k mark is necessary to make yearly Fifa and potentially other EA sports games a lock for release on Switch for years going forward. This was certainly a testing the waters game with EA and will play a huge factor in their support of the platform for years to come.

Nintendo has basically vacated the month of November leaving room for the third party titles releasing to stand out. We have Doom, Skyrim, LA Noir, and Sonic Forces all releasing in November. The question will be if the visibility translates to sales. The Switch userbase is still developing its identity. It certainly isnt a Wii scenario where Grandmas are picking up the system. It is clear that the Switch is selling to core gamers, but are those core gamers buying habits solely focused on first party titles and Indie games? Indies seem to be having a great deal of success on Switch, with some titles selling better on Switch than all other platforms combined. It is the AAA third party games that remain in uncharted territory with Switch. Both Doom and Skyrim both look to be very competent builds, but will they be games that gamers want to play on the go? Are there enough Switch only gamers who are interested in these types of games?

 

[Entropy]

Fifa 18 has charted on Amazon in both France and Germany since release. It need to do well in those territories in order to have any chance of doing "ok" in sales. I think 250k in sales in the most likely at this point. I suppose keeping an eye on the charts during the Christmas holiday will be important to spot any signs of a sales surge. I really think that hitting the 500k mark is necessary to make yearly Fifa and potentially other EA sports games a lock for release on Switch for years going forward. This was certainly a testing the waters game with EA and will play a huge factor in their support of the platform for years to come.

Nintendo has basically vacated the month of November leaving room for the third party titles releasing to stand out. We have Doom, Skyrim, LA Noir, and Sonic Forces all releasing in November. The question will be if the visibility translates to sales. The Switch userbase is still developing its identity. It certainly isnt a Wii scenario where Grandmas are picking up the system. It is clear that the Switch is selling to core gamers, but are those core gamers buying habits solely focused on first party titles and Indie games? Indies seem to be having a great deal of success on Switch, with some titles selling better on Switch than all other platforms combined. It is the AAA third party games that remain in uncharted territory with Switch. Both Doom and Skyrim both look to be very competent builds, but will they be games that gamers want to play on the go? Are there enough Switch only gamers who are interested in these types of games?

I think it is difficult to judge consumer interest when you are offering old ports. I played Skyrim when it came out for PC. Played my fill, then deleted it. Same with DOOM. Played it, loved it, deleted it.
Will I rebuy them for the Switch? Ehh...

The real test would be a simultaneous release of something like Civ6 or Overwatch. But we are a long way from that. As long as the publishers offer titles that anyone truly interested in them could have played long ago, and at full price to add insult to injury, the response is likely to be pretty limp. Anything else would be a surprise.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I think it is difficult to judge consumer interest when you are offering old ports. I played Skyrim when it came out for PC. Played my fill, then deleted it. Same with DOOM. Played it, loved it, deleted it.
Will I rebuy them for the Switch? Ehh...

The real test would be a simultaneous release of something like Civ6 or Overwatch. But we are a long way from that. As long as the publishers offer titles that anyone truly interested in them could have played long ago, and at full price to add insult to injury, the response is likely to be pretty limp. Anything else would be a surprise.

Yes, it's unfortunate that Wolfenstein 2 won't be releasing at the same time on Switch. But even if it did, I'd still expect to sell much better on PS/XB/PC than Switch. There's a lot of multiplatform games that have the potential to do well on the Switch (I think Persona 5 on Switch could have done better than PS4 sales if the Switch had a similar install base, for example), but I don't think FPS in general is something people are jonsing to play on the go. So Doom and Wolfenstein will be bad titles to judge the reception of 3rd party titles on the platform.

What I'd like to know is how Mario + Rabbids did in sales.

[edit] Apparently quite well.
https://venturebeat.com/2017/10/23/...vel-vs-capcom-in-septembers-crossover-battle/

Number 5 for Sept. NPD if I read that correctly. Really REALLY good for a 3rd party single platform title.

Regards,
SB