SquareEnix explains why FFXIII is PS3 exclusive - DVD9 not enough

[Mefisutoferesu]

So your saying as a publisher they wouldn't want to sell to the existing 6 million 360 user base (potential 10million by the end of the year and who knows what it would be by the time they finish with this game)?

They are in business to make money. To offset these potential sales, (which would lead to a LOT more sales of this type game on their competitors system) Sony must make up for this exclusivity.

So your saying as a publisher they wouldn't want to sell to the existing 100 million PS2 user base (potential 108 million by the end of the year and who knows what it would be by the time they finish with this game)?

 

[TheChefO]

So your saying as a publisher they wouldn't want to sell to the existing 100 million PS2 user base (potential 108 million by the end of the year and who knows what it would be by the time they finish with this game)?

No because by that time demand for ps2 software would be so low that the platform would be a hinderance to their development. One could say the same silly argument for xbox over xbox360 but current gen software sales speak for themselves. The trend is next gen. Especially on the software front.

Cute argument but it doesn't hold water.

 

[scooby_dooby]

So your saying as a publisher they wouldn't want to sell to the existing 100 million PS2 user base (potential 108 million by the end of the year and who knows what it would be by the time they finish with this game)?

That same 108million userbase that is being equalled in software sales by a few million 360's?

SE will make MUCH more money selling FF13 on PS3 than on PS2 which is dying, and the software sales show this. It had nothing to do with 'liking' ps2, I can't believe people actually lap that crap up. It's money, more money to be made on PS3 than any other platform, that's the bottom line.

 

[TheChefO]

It's money, more money to be made on PS3 than any other platform

Or so they'd like to believe

 

[Bobbler]

So your saying as a publisher they wouldn't want to sell to the existing 6 million 360 user base (potential 10million by the end of the year and who knows what it would be by the time they finish with this game)?

They are in business to make money. To offset these potential sales, (which would lead to a LOT more sales of this type game on their competitors system) Sony must make up for this exclusivity.

You mean potentially 6-7 million by the end of the year? The userbase isn't near 6 million yet. And how many of those millions are the target audience for an FF game? How many do they think it would sell if it was on 360 alone? Multiplatform? is the cost of porting worth the extra units sold on multiplatform? There's more to it than just money from Sony.

I'm not even sure Sony is paying all that much to make FFXIII exclusive. It seems a lot of Japanese studios are rather easy going about exclusivity, especially when talking to the market leader -- certainly more so than someone like EA/Ubi, who Sony/Nintendo/MS probably wouldn't find it financially sound to pay what they'd want for an exclusive.

It was already in development for PS2 and after E3 05 it was switched to PS3 -- another platform was likely never really in question.

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

No because by that time demand for ps2 software would be so low that the platform would be a hinderance to their development. One could say the same silly argument for xbox over xbox360 but current gen software sales speak for themselves. The trend is next gen. Especially on the software front.

The trend is that in Japan the 360 is doing WORSE than the original Xbox. That said demand for PS2 games is irrelevant. We're talking about FINAL FANTASY here folks. This is a game series the general press breaks news on. If it was put out on the PS2 I highly doubt people would forgoe it like a forgotten memory. As to the development hinderence... well, yeah, that's why they like the PS3 so much. Less hinderence, which kinda helps my point there.

That same 108million userbase that is being equalled in software sales by a few million 360's?

SE will make MUCH more money selling FF13 on PS3 than on PS2 which is dying, and the software sales show this. It had nothing to do with 'liking' ps2, I can't believe people actually lap that crap up. It's money, more money to be made on PS3 than any other platform, that's the bottom line.

Whaaaaaaaaaaat? Please tell me you don't seriously believe that a 3 million user base equates in any way to 100 million user base, let alone one where in Japan the ratio is something like 300:1 favoring PS2? Hell, pretend 360 has a 10 million user base, you seriously think 70% of Xbox 360 owners would buy a final fantasy game (Oops, FFs usually sell around 7 mil worldwide sorry about missing that detail)? Please, come on, that's a stretch in any book. Also, how is SE going to make more money by putting it on the PS3? Everyone is complaining about next gen budgets SKY ROCKETING and I imagine SE productions are at the forefront of it all. They've gone on to say that they scrapped development on the PS2, as in they scrapped their in development ENGINE and ASSESTS. That's A LOT of money to toss aside. Not mention new HD assests, HD CG, new engine, and a very immature production chain. There's no evidence to support what you're saying.

Why is it so hard to take what a developer says at face value? Explain to me, why you don't believe them with EVIDENCE. Otherwise, they like the PS3 hardware. Live with it.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Whaaaaaaaaaaat? Please tell me you don't seriously believe that a 3 million user base equates in any way to 100 million user base, let alone one where in Japan the ratio is something like 300:1 favoring PS2? Hell, pretend 360 has a 10 million user base, you seriously think 70% of Xbox 360 owners would buy a final fantasy game? Please, come on, that's a stretch in any book.

No you completely misunderstood my post. I'm saying current gen sales are stagnating, and overall install base is not a good indicator for software sales, as seen by X360 dominating the tops of the charts month after month despite having at best 3% of the install base of PS2.

Simply put SE will make much more money by releasing on PS3 than PS2 because current generation sales are dying, especially when you consider their probable release date of 2008.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So your saying as a publisher they wouldn't want to sell to the existing 6 million 360 user base (potential 10million by the end of the year and who knows what it would be by the time they finish with this game)?

The primary sales of FF have always been in Japan, where there is zip XB360 installed base. I don't think there's much precedence for believing XB360 owners' taste care much for JRPG either. The XBox platform is strong in racers and shooters and western games, which suggests the owners want that sort of game. If they wanted JRPGs, wouldn't they have bought a PS2 instead? I guess sales for FFXI on XB360 would give an indicator of how well the FF franchise might do. But it's not enough to say 'there's more of this console, hence you'll sell more'. The consideration is which platform has the more potential buyers for your game, which isn't always the platform with the most units (until you get way out ahead). On PS3 Squenix are pretty much guarenteed about as many million unit sales in Japan as there are PS3s sold there by the game's launch (assuming not a prolonged release). Maybe 2-3 million? Overall they'd need a high percentage of XB360 owners to buy into it to equal sales, with no PS like certainty that those owners want it.

I also don't beleive if a new FF was launched on PS2, it would go overlooked because the 'platform is dying'. The reason to move on isn't a numbers game or money game, but because they want to create better products! They want to try new stuff, and make more immersive experiences. You even get that explanation from the interview. FFXIII was being developed for PS2, and after producing the demo for PS3, they didn't want to go back. If they hadn't have produced that demo, FFXIII would have still been released on PS2 and sold millions (unless released really really late), costing a lot less for Squenix to produce. There's no way they'll make as much money from FFXIII on PS3 as they would PS2.

 

[scificube]

No you completely misunderstood my post. I'm saying current gen sales are stagnating, and overall install base is not a good indicator for software sales, as seen by X360 dominating the tops of the charts month after month despite having at best 3% of the install base of PS2.

Simply put SE will make much more money by releasing on PS3 than PS2 because current generation sales are dying, especially when you consider their probable release date of 2008.

PS2 sales dying in Japan? Huh? X360 games topping the charts in Japan? I don't...huh?

edit: sorry...shifty seems to have clarified things well enough for me.

 

[TheChefO]

You mean potentially 6-7 million by the end of the year? The userbase isn't near 6 million yet. And how many of those millions are the target audience for an FF game? How many do they think it would sell if it was on 360 alone? Multiplatform? is the cost of porting worth the extra units sold on multiplatform? There's more to it than just money from Sony.

I'm not even sure Sony is paying all that much to make FFXIII exclusive. It seems a lot of Japanese studios are rather easy going about exclusivity, especially when talking to the market leader -- certainly more so than someone like EA/Ubi, who Sony/Nintendo/MS probably wouldn't find it financially sound to pay what they'd want for an exclusive.

It was already in development for PS2 and after E3 05 it was switched to PS3 -- another platform was likely never really in question.

Check the latest sales data for 360 - They're coming in at 5.5million right now. Look at historical sales data for Christmas and you'll see they will have difficulty in not hitting 10million by the end of the year.

As for the target relevence of that userbase, most girl gamers that I know of eat FF games up. I don't know about you all but that would be the only reason I'd pickup a ps3 at this point is to get FF for my fiance. How many others are in the same situation don't know but I imagine I'm not alone not to mention you can't gauge xbox fans apetite for FF or jrpgs because they don't exist on the platform.

Build it and they will come - or in this case bring FF to 360 and the jrpg devs/japanese fanbase will come.

If FF went multiplat to 360, Wii, and ps3 you'd see sales instantly pickup in Japan. This would be followed by more devs bring their japanese centric games to 360. Sony does not want this and that is why they will pay SE handsomely for the exclusive.

 

[TheChefO]

... well, yeah, that's why they like the PS3 so much. Less hinderence, which kinda helps my point there.

You're missing the point. The hinderance has NOTHING to do with hardware. it has to do with sales and customer desire. In 2008 no customer will desire ps2 quality games.

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

No you completely misunderstood my post. I'm saying current gen sales are stagnating, and overall install base is not a good indicator for software sales, as seen by X360 dominating the tops of the charts month after month despite having at best 2% of the install base of PS2.

Simply put SE will make much more money by releasing on PS3 than PS2 because current generation sales are dying, especially when you consider their probable release date of 2008.

Again, you're forming ficitious truths through correlation rather than causation. You have nothing that clearly explains why current gen sales are stagnating. Nor any evidence that suggests that the trend would effect FF's sales as well. Also, to say that install base isn't a good indictator is kinda... look install base marks potential and probabliity. SE has to sell to only 7% of the PS2 install base to make their usual 7 mil. With a largew percentage of that in Japan and the western "jgamer" well represented on the PS2 it seems statisically that they would be able to make that &% easier than a 70% install base on a console where the user base is mostly western and, at least seemingly, far less representative of western gamers who play Jp games. In other words, you're fooling yourself into thinking that since 360 games are doing better in sales than PS2 that obviously the market segement that repsonds to FF is on 360. You're correlating thing that really have nothing to do with eachother and seeing it as a cause. Not the most eloquently put, but you get it right?

You're missing the point. The hinderance has NOTHING to do with hardware. it has to do with sales and customer desire. In 2008 no customer will desire ps2 quality games.

When was FFXIII confirmed for 2008? Also, you have no PROOF of this. Find me evidence, non-anecdotal, that if FF was going to come out on PS2 it wouldn't sell as well. It's just your opinion that you're arguing as fact.

 

[TheChefO]

The primary sales of FF have always been in Japan, where there is zip XB360 installed base. I don't think there's much precedence for believing XB360 owners' taste care much for JRPG either. The XBox platform is strong in racers and shooters and western games, which suggests the owners want that sort of game. If they wanted JRPGs, wouldn't they have bought a PS2 instead? I guess sales for FFXI on XB360 would give an indicator of how well the FF franchise might do. But it's not enough to say 'there's more of this console, hence you'll sell more'. The consideration is which platform has the more potential buyers for your game, which isn't always the platform with the most units (until you get way out ahead). On PS3 Squenix are pretty much guarenteed about as many million unit sales in Japan as there are PS3s sold there by the game's launch (assuming not a prolonged release). Maybe 2-3 million? Overall they'd need a high percentage of XB360 owners to buy into it to equal sales, with no PS like certainty that those owners want it.

I also don't beleive if a new FF was launched on PS2, it would go overlooked because the 'platform is dying'. The reason to move on isn't a numbers game or money game, but because they want to create better products! They want to try new stuff, and make more immersive experiences. You even get that explanation from the interview. FFXIII was being developed for PS2, and after producing the demo for PS3, they didn't want to go back. If they hadn't have produced that demo, FFXIII would have still been released on PS2 and sold millions (unless released really really late), costing a lot less for Squenix to produce. There's no way they'll make as much money from FFXIII on PS3 as they would PS2.

Agreed but you're assuming this is a regular game/franchise with this sales analogy. If MS announced this game as exclusive on 360 what do you think would happen to the 360 userbase in Japan? In light of the recently announced price and subsequent shock even in Japan, they would buy 360's in droves. This is one of the few examples of the carriage before the horse. This game will create its own userbase. In otherwords whereverthis game goes the gamers will follow.

Onto their reasoning. All of the above arguments say what exactly against the benefits of making this game multiplat?

 

[TheChefO]

Again, you're forming ficitious truths through correlation rather than causation. You have nothing that clearly explains why current gen sales are stagnating. Nor any evidence that suggests that the trend would effect FF's sales as well. Also, to say that install base isn't a good indictator is kinda... look install base marks potential and probabliity. SE has to sell to only 7% of the PS2 install base to make their usual 7 mil. With a largew percentage of that in Japan and the western "jgamer" well represented on the PS2 it seems statisically that they would be able to make that &% easier than a 70% install base on a console where the user base is mostly western and, at least seemingly, far less representative of western gamers who play Jp games. In other words, you're fooling yourself into thinking that since 360 games are doing better in sales than PS2 that obviously the market segement that repsonds to FF is on 360. You're correlating thing that really have nothing to do with eachother and seeing it as a cause. Not the most eloquently put, but you get it right?

well in that case why do they even make an english version of this game if western gamers aren't interested?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Why is it so hard to take what a developer says at face value? Explain to me, why you don't believe them with EVIDENCE. Otherwise, they like the PS3 hardware. Live with it.

Because it's a ridiculous statement. You're telling me the producers of the game threw millions of dollars in revenues down the toilet because their development team liked the hardware so much?

In the world of business that's not how it works, you think producers care how much 'fun' their dev team is having? It's ruled by the almighty dollar, and if SE thought they could make more money by releasing it on PS2 then that's what they would do.

 

[scificube]

well in that case why do they even make an english version of this game if western gamers aren't interested?

Because western gamers on PS2 are interested?

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

well in that case why do they even make an english version of this game if western gamers aren't interested?

OMG, are you PURPOSELY being obtuse? You sit there agree with shifty and then make grossly over generalized what I said as to make your counter point?

With a large percentage of that in Japan and the western "jgamer" well represented on the PS2 it seems statisically that they would be able to make that &% easier than a 70% install base on a console where the user base is mostly western and, at least seemingly, far less representative of western gamers who play Jp games.

I never said western gamers weren't interested. In fact, as I said, I basically said the same thing shifty said.

I don't think there's much precedence for believing XB360 owners' taste care much for JRPG either. The XBox platform is strong in racers and shooters and western games, which suggests the owners want that sort of game. If they wanted JRPGs, wouldn't they have bought a PS2 instead?

 

[scificube]

Because it's a ridiculous statement. You're telling me the producers of the game threw millions of dollars in revenues down the toilet because their development team liked the hardware so much?

In the world of business that's not how it works, you think producers care how much 'fun' their dev team is having? It's ruled by the almighty dollar, and if SE thought they could make more money by releasing it on PS2 then that's what they would do.

The marketing teams and other higher ups could like it just the same for "HD" appeal, "establishing a PS3 presence", "Getting a return of all the time and money spent on the FFIV demo for PS3" etc.

Money runs the show...but the quickest/easiest route is not always taken to it if there are other benefits to not doing so immediately that could translate into higher revenues later on down the line.

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

Because it's a ridiculous statement. You're telling me the producers of the game threw millions of dollars in revenues down the toilet because their development team liked the hardware so much?

In the world of business that's not how it works, you think producers care how much 'fun' their dev team is having? It's ruled by the almighty dollar, and if SE thought they could make more money by releasing it on PS2 then that's what they would do.

Yeah, that's fairly reasonable statement, buuuut this is Kitase's dev team we're talking about. These guys are sorta the cornerstone of modern numbered FFs. There's a certain give and take to keep both sides happy. The bean counters were probably none too happy about it, but maybe they negotiated a way around making it profitable in the long run, sometimes even bean counters can show a little farsightedness.

Hypothetically, the deal could have been something along the lines of "fine we'll move it to the PS3, BUT we get spin offs". Certainly would explain how Nomura's team came into making versus instead of KH3 or just a break. FFXIII was in development while KH2 was still being worked on... wouldn't have made much sense for Nomura's team to be on versus, BUT maybe with the shake/change up who knows. It's hypothetical, but the point is neither you nor I know what wacky highjinks are going on behind the scenes, so cut these guys some slack. Maybe, it seems ridiculous because we're missing huge pieces of the puzzle. I think we should just assume they are telling the truth until a tangible piece of evidence says otherwise.

 

[Bobbler]

Check the latest sales data for 360 - They're coming in at 5.5million right now. Look at historical sales data for Christmas and you'll see they will have difficulty in not hitting 10million by the end of the year.

I think you need to look at the actual sales charts again. They're around 3 million worldwide at the moment. Those targets set by MS are for shipping -- they've never been talking about sales.

It is at roughly 1.8 million sold in the US now -- Europe is around 1 million and the rest is around 200-250k (give or take).

Around the christmas season you can expect about 1.5million sold in NA -- Europe might see a million in nov/dec as well, and Japan will probably be another 20k that month if they're lucky. The next 3 months isn't going to account for ~5 million (these are typically slow months also).