Sony Q3 FY2009 Earnings Announcement

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http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/info/presen/index.html

Networked Products & Services

Sales increased 1.9% year-on-year (a 3% increase on a local currency basis) to ¥606.1 billion ($6,589 million). This increase was mainly due to higher sales of VAIOTM PCs which experienced increased unit sales in all regions. Sales in the game business decreased primarily as a result of a decrease in unit sales of PlayStation®2 (“PS2”) hardware and software, and PSP® (PlayStation Portable) (“PSP”) hardware. Due to the launch of a new model, approximately 6.5 million units of PlayStation®3 (“PS3”) hardware were sold in the current quarter, compared to approximately 4.5 million units in the prior year’s third quarter. Approximately 4.2 million PSP units were sold in the current quarter, compared to approximately 5.1 million units in the prior year’s third quarter. Approximately 2.1 million PS2 units were sold in the current quarter, compared to approximately 2.5 million units in the prior year’s third quarter.

Operating income of ¥19.4 billion ($211 million) was recorded, an improvement of ¥25.3 billion year-on-year, primarily due to higher VAIO PC sales. In the game business, despite a decrease in PS2 hardware and software unit sales, and PSP hardware unit sales, profitability was relatively unchanged mainly due to an improvement in the cost of PS3 hardware.

Also

3. Results in the B2B & Disc Manufacturing segment are expected to be approximately ¥10 billion less than the October forecast due to continuing difficulties in the business environment.
4. Results in the NPS segment are expected to be approximately ¥5 billion less than the October forecast mainly due to lower than expected results in the game business.

 

[Rangers]

My 6.6 PS3 estimate was pretty close

LTD=33.5. Xbox LTD=38.7

 

[obonicus]

So how many PS3s is that for non-Japan, non US?

 

[deepbrown]

Yes, less than my 7.2million guess. But I realise now why that was so stupid. I just remembered that the PS3 sold 2 million more than the 360...and so added 2 million on top of the 360's 5.2 million number - without being clever enough to realise that that 2 million was for the full year.

So for the 9 months ending December 2009....the Xbox 360 has sold 8.5 and the PS3 has sold 10.8 million

That's a 2.3 million difference in 9 months, meaning the PS3 could possibly grow that gap to 3 million.

The 10.8 million number also means that the PS3 need only sell 2.2 million from January to March to meet their 13 million prediction (this is a prediction that revealed the Slim and PS3 price cut months before it was announced)

 

[NathansFortune]

Damn was out by quite a bit though I did say 6.8m with shortages, so I'm claiming victory!

My PS2 and PSP predictions were ok though, and my profit predictions were pretty good as well, ¥147bn for the 3 months and a small but unsustainable profit in NPS.

I think NPS will post a loss in Q4, but that should be the last lot as they will undoubtedly amortise a lot of losses into this financial year given the downbeat assessment of PSP and software. I think FYE 2011 NPS (or SCE) will make a large profit, especially if they launch premium network services for £20-30 a year.

 

[patsu]

Well, they may need to invest in project Arc-Arc from now till about 2011.

 

[JB9861]

Yes, less than my 7.2million guess. But I realise now why that was so stupid. I just remembered that the PS3 sold 2 million more than the 360...and so added 2 million on top of the 360's 5.2 million number - without being clever enough to realise that that 2 million was for the full year.

So for the 9 months ending December 2009....the Xbox 360 has sold 8.5 and the PS3 has sold 10.8 million

That's a 2.3 million difference in 9 months, meaning the PS3 could possibly grow that gap to 3 million.

The 10.8 million number also means that the PS3 need only sell 2.2 million from January to March to meet their 13 million prediction (this is a prediction that revealed the Slim and PS3 price cut months before it was announced)

Tracking ahead or over the next few years like the PS1 is something I'd consider more important than worrying about the discrepancy between 2nd and 3rd place HW. It's a very small one and the battle has essentially been you price cut, then I price cut until we knock ourselves out. The 2 region vs 3 region situation remains in the end. Price reductions just create a seesaw effect, but sales aren't sustained to offset or significantly accelerate what's eventual. Even a hardware revision/price cut like the slim just managed at this point to merely make up for lost ground from the 360 price cut in 08.

 

[NathansFortune]

Well, they may need to invest in project Arc-Arc from now till about 2011.

I think the majority of the investment is done. PSEye is already in place, and the rest is either already in SixAxis or software based. Except the glowing ball...

Seriously there is very little new tech in Arc, just updated software and the ball-pointer/depth measurer.

 

[patsu]

Don't underestimate marketing cost (e.g, bundle into SKU, advertising).

 

[deepbrown]

Tracking ahead or over the next few years like the PS1 is something I'd consider more important than worrying about the discrepancy between 2nd and 3rd place HW. It's a very small one and the battle has essentially been you price cut, then I price cut until we knock ourselves out. The 2 region vs 3 region situation remains in the end. Price reductions just create a seesaw effect, but sales aren't sustained to offset or significantly accelerate what's eventual. Even a hardware revision/price cut like the slim just managed at this point to merely make up for lost ground from the 360 price cut in 08.

Wrong. It's done quite a lot more than that. Before the 360 price cut, the difference was around 6 million units. After the 360 price cut, this grew to around an 8 million difference. The difference is now 5.2 million after 9 months.

The gap hasn't been this low since before the PS3 was launched (ie. when the 360 had only sold 5.2 million units)

 

[Rangers]

True PS3 is gaining but most of it is coming in Japan.

In (Europe+USA) eking out gains is brutally hard.

If there's one company I "feel sorry" for this gen it's Sony. No offense to them.

Nintendo plays a different game and rolls in profits.

But Sony and MS are in a brutal war of attrition where every sale by one mostly takes away a sale from the other.

It's easy to see MS both has more to gain, less to lose and is better equipped financially for that war.

Then to top it off, compare how far Sony has fallen from the PS2 glory days. They can never win those comparisons so it looks even worse. OTOH X360 will sell 2-3X Xbox pretty easily.

I just often think how Sony must rue the day MS entered the console biz. From that day it became "who can bleed the most" and basically ruined any profit potential in the hardcore sector. Sony went from undisputed king of the hill to a costly war of attrition for second place.

If MS had never entered, Sony would have the hardcore all to themselves. They could price the hardware profitably and at their own leisure. It would be a wholly different world from today.

But, that's competition I suppose.

 

[zed]

Of interest ps3 shipments are what xbox360 shipments were 3 months previously, unfortunately for them xmas followed
Also it looks like the 'impossible' 13 million ps3 target for the year will be reached next quarter

 

[deepbrown]

True PS3 is gaining but most of it is coming in Japan.

In (Europe+USA) eking out gains is brutally hard.

If there's one company I "feel sorry" for this gen it's Sony. No offense to them.

Nintendo plays a different game and rolls in profits.

But Sony and MS are in a brutal war of attrition where every sale by one mostly takes away a sale from the other.

It's easy to see MS both has more to gain, less to lose and is better equipped financially for that war.

Then to top it off, compare how far Sony has fallen from the PS2 glory days. They can never win those comparisons so it looks even worse. OTOH X360 will sell 2-3X Xbox pretty easily.

I just often think how Sony must rue the day MS entered the console biz. From that day it became "who can bleed the most" and basically ruined any profit potential in the hardcore sector. Sony went from undisputed king of the hill to a costly war of attrition for second place.

If MS had never entered, Sony would have the hardcore all to themselves. They could price the hardware profitably and at their own leisure. It would be a wholly different world from today.

But, that's competition I suppose.

Sorry Rangers, but 2.3 million consoles in 9 months didn't come out of Japan.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Also it looks like the 'impossible' 13 million ps3 target for the year will be reached next quarter

I wouldn't count on 13 million for PS3 just yet. With only 10.8 million so far (using Deepbrowns numbers), they would need to average ~740k consoles per month in the one of the slowest seasons of the year.

It's certainly now actually within the realm of possibility, but certainly not a given.

Regards,
SB

 

[Crossbar]

The actual Sony report where deepbrown got his numbers from.

Seems like the PS3 forecast will be pretty much on the mark, while they seriously mispredicted PSP and PS2 sales.

The PSP holiday sales obviously did not live up to expectations, while the PS2 sales were stronger than expected.

 

[djskribbles]

I wouldn't count on 13 million for PS3 just yet. With only 10.8 million so far (using Deepbrowns numbers), they would need to average ~740k consoles per month in the one of the slowest seasons of the year.

It's certainly now actually within the realm of possibility, but certainly not a given.

Regards,
SB

God of War might help, especially if there's a bundle. There's also some decent games being released in Japan.

 

[Crossbar]

God of War might help, especially if there's a bundle. There's also some decent games being released in Japan.

FFXIII will likely have a similar impact in the West, going by the pre-order numbers.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Both are scheduled for March right? So I'd expect them to have an impact, but at this point I haven't got a clue what motivates the PS3 consumer base. The X360 consumers are pretty predictable. The PS3 consumers...not so much.

Still that's just one month but could be enough to push it depending on whether it does push signifcant new console sales. God of War more than FF XIII I think. As FF XIII will be releasing on both consoles so if someone already has an X360 but no PS3, they'll probably just get FF.

Regards,
SB

 

[Crossbar]

Both are scheduled for March right? So I'd expect them to have an impact, but at this point I haven't got a clue what motivates the PS3 consumer base. The X360 consumers are pretty predictable. The PS3 consumers...not so much.

Still that's just one month but could be enough to push it depending on whether it does push signifcant new console sales. God of War more than FF XIII I think. As FF XIII will be releasing on both consoles so if someone already has an X360 but no PS3, they'll probably just get FF.

Could be, going by pre-order lists FFXIII seems to have far more mind share among PS3 owners than 360 owners, so among people who haven´t made the jump to HD consoles FFXIII will likely sell more PS3s than 360s.

Maybe the combination of the two titles will sell more consoles than both of them separetely.

If the 360 FFXIII version comes on 3 DVDs as rumoured then the single disc BD version may look as an attractive option for 360 owners that have been considering getting a PS3 for a while, but people may wait for actual reviews before making up their minds on that one.

 

[deepbrown]

I wouldn't count on 13 million for PS3 just yet. With only 10.8 million so far (using Deepbrowns numbers), they would need to average ~740k consoles per month in the one of the slowest seasons of the year.

It's certainly now actually within the realm of possibility, but certainly not a given.

Regards,
SB

Selling 2.2 million well ve extremely easy. Remember we're talking worldwide, not just the US. 740k worldwide with FFXIII and God of War III will be easily surpassed.