Something MS didn't factor into their plans?

[Phil]

I disagree...unless by "roughly" you mean 4-6 months later.

Do you disagree that there are developers outthere that have had PS3 dev kits as long as they've had Xbox360 kits? As apparent by the E3 showing in May, it's safe to assume that key developers have been using beta PS3 dev-kits since late 2004 / early 2005.

Oh, and I only see Sony launching 4-6 months later in Japan only. My bet is on 10-12 months later in the U.S.

Regional launch dates have no bearing on the actual start of development of a product. It's apparent EA as various European developers like Ninja Theory are working on PS3 software despite the release date being a year away in their respective territories. Just because PS3 would be launching later in U.S. doesn't mean U.S developers with development kits will hold off with development of their products. Quite to the contrary: it means they have more time to finish their product, a luxory Microsoft didn't have given their world-wide launch and them rushing out to be the first in their markets for a time advantage.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Do you disagree that there are developers outthere that have had PS3 dev kits as long as they've had Xbox360 kits?

No, I don't agree.

I don't know how long "select" developers have had advance dev-kits of any type. I do recall that beta dev kits have been reaching more xbox devs "en mass" 4-6 months before PS3 kits.

Regional launch dates have no bearing on the actual start of development of a product.

How can you say that? If a next-gen console is not going to be available in a given region, than means you're still selling previous gen software.

It's apparent EA as various European developers like Ninja Theory are working on PS3 software despite the release date being a year away in their respective territories.

Of course...because "1 year away" is not a particularly long time.

Just because PS3 would be launching later in U.S. doesn't mean U.S developers with development kits will hold off with development of their products.

It means that there are differences in how you prioritize development. It also means that most devs will get a dev kit later.

Quite to the contrary: it means they have more time to finish their product, a luxory Microsoft didn't have given their world-wide launch and them rushing out to be the first in their markets for a time advantage.

No, it means that certain launch title developers may have a longer time to develop their product.

The developers working on XBox titles for spring/summer/fall '06 for xbox will have had as long a time with the 360 as the launch title devs have with PS3. Meanwhile, the 360 will already have a back catalog of titles onthe market (some good, some bad).

 

[Phil]

I don't know how long "select" developers have had advance dev-kits of any type. I do recall that beta dev kits have been reaching more xbox devs "en mass" 4-6 months before PS3 kits.

Do you have a link? I am not disputing that Microsoft reaching more xbox devs than Sony at the same point - but I am questioning to what kind of advantage that amounts, especially when you consider that Microsoft most probably shipped beta kits in higher quantities but that those devkits were less representative of final hardware than what Sony shipped out to less developers in the same time frame. I am basing this off that beta Xbox devkits were basically G5s while Sony had already been shipping CELL based kits as early as beginning of this year if not late 2004.

Then again, without actualy evidence, I wouldn't put much weight into who has shipped more devkits to developers. We also don't know how many developers already started PS3 development without having actual devkits.

Anyway, what I'm really disagreeing with is this extract from your post...

There will be many more titles on the market, and (if MS is lucky) one or two blockbuster types to help continue to fuel 360 sales through a PS3 launch.

...because you are ignoring that many of the developers in question [key developers] have had devkits as long as their Xbox counterparts. You are also ignoring that Sony is at this point probably enjoying a lot more support from developers which ultimately means more software that would be in development. I expect Sony to launch with more software than what Xbox360 did and I expect more titles to be coming out relative to the same timeframe Xbox360 was in.

 

[Powderkeg]

...because you are ignoring that many of the developers in question [key developers] have had devkits as long as their Xbox counterparts.

Baloney.

Name 1 PS3 developer who had a dev kit in January 2004. Just one.

 

[Phil]

From one of the PlayStation Meeting slides that were posted here at Beyond3d some time ago, I remember seeing that alpha devkits (2.4 CELL) should have been out early this year with beta following sometime around E3 time. Can't give you any names, but my logical assumption would be some of the developers that had realtime demonstrations at E3 in beginning of Mai (Getaway demo, Fight Night, SquareSoft, Epic?).

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Do you have a link? I am not disputing that Microsoft reaching more xbox devs than Sony at the same point - but I am questioning to what kind of advantage that amounts...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?section_name=dev&aid=3039

This is the "earliest official" that we know of fo xbox.

...We also don't know how many developers already started PS3 development without having actual devkits.

Same can be said for XBox.

Anyway, what I'm really disagreeing with is this extract from your post...

You are disagreeing that MS, having 6 to 12 months on the market before PS3 won't have

1) More titles
2) A chance at having 1 or 2 blockbuster titles by the time PS3 launches?

This is just common sense.

...because you are ignoring that many of the developers in question [key developers] have had devkits as long as their Xbox counterparts.

No, I am not accepting your assertion as fact.

You are also ignoring that Sony is at this point probably enjoying a lot more support from developers

Last I checked, it was pretty even in terms of developer support for next-gen systems. Sony may have a slight edge in that...but then MS would have an edge in terms of the development environment by most accounts I've read.

... which ultimately means more software that would be in development. I expect Sony to launch with more software than what Xbox360 did...

That is not the relevant question. The question is: Do you excpect PS3 to launch with more software than 360 has at the time PS3 launches?

 

[duncan36]

Microsoft will learn real fast that this massive internet 'propaganda' machine they've built that spreads the word on message boards on websites, etc will mean nothing if they knowingly distributed flawed product to people just to meet a launch date.

Microsoft and the supporters of the Xbox 360 better pray thats not the case, because the console will be doomed to a distant second/third if they've committed this crime.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Microsoft will learn real fast that this massive internet 'propaganda' machine they've built that spreads the word on message boards on websites, etc will mean nothing if they knowingly distributed flawed product to people just to meet a launch date.

I/m sure MS (like Intel) already knows that no matter what they do, "the internet machine" will blow any issue out of the water...especially because it's MS.

 

[Phil]

Last I checked, it was pretty even in terms of developer support for next-gen systems. Sony may have a slight edge in that...but then MS would have an edge in terms of the development environment by most accounts I've read.

Doubtful IMO, unless you have a list? Given PlayStation is the dominant console outthere, I'd think it's common sense to assume most developers will be targeting the "safest bet". We even have a link to a news tidbit in one of the other recent threads (last few days) that has it showing that in Japan for one, Sony is already receiving much more support. I'll try to find the link and add it to this post.

That is not the relevant question. The question is: Do you excpect PS3 to launch with more software than 360 has at the time PS3 launches?

Given we don't even know the exact launch date of the PS3, there's no reason to make any prediction. The later the launch date, the more software I expect them to launch with. I would think though that Sony will catch up on the software library within a few months after the release, given the higher support they'll be receiving and that a big amount of software that is slatet for Xbox360 are multiplatform efforts that will be out for PS3 as well (EA games mainly).

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Doubtful IMO, unless you have a list?

Do you? Everything I've read shows a much more competitive line up of developers for 360, including Japanese devs. Again...I'd give a slight edge to PS3 (specifically in the Japanese market), but just that.

Given PlayStation is the dominant console outthere, I'd think it's common sense to assume most developers will be targeting the "safest bet".

PS2 is the dominant console...not PS3.

Given that PS3 launch dates are not even known...PS3 is hardly a "safe bet" when compared to an already shipping console. There is more to a "safe bet" than the dominant brand of the previous generation.

Given we don't even know the exact launch date of the PS3, there's no reason to make any prediction. The later the launch date, the more software I expect them to launch with.

And the more software XBox will have of its own to compete with.

 

[Phil]

Do you? Everything I've read shows a much more competitive line up of developers for 360, including Japanese devs. Again...I'd give a slight edge to PS3 (specifically in the Japanese market), but just that.

More competitive in the eyes of current PlayStation owners or Xbox owners?

PS2 is the dominant console...not PS3.

Of course PS2s success has absolutely no bearing at all on its successor...

Ever heard of mindshare and brand recognition? Why do you think PS2 went down as the hottest selling console ever despite a arguable weak launch lineup and a strong selling Dreamcast at a cheaper price?

 

[Phil]

Japanese PS3 lineup:

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=23622&highlight=Japan+lineup

102 titles, as of TGS 2005.

Surprisingly, not many companies announced games for both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 at the Tokyo Game Show. Capcom reconfirmed that Resident Evil 5 (called BioHazard 5 in Japan) will come out for the PS3 and Xbox 360, and From Software revealed its newly announced game, Armored Core 4, is in development for both platforms.

 

[expletive]

Yes, I appreciate that, though it wasn't my point (and incidentally all companies like people make mistakes and oversights). My point was for MS to take advantage of an early lead, that's going to be less tahn a year and maybe less than six months, they need stock. Lots of it. Lots of units being sold. The construction of XB360 is definitely quite complex going by the way I've heard (read rather) MS peeps talk about the movement of parts. A complex construction process is going to slow down production rates, which is quite the opposite of what MS needs for an early lead bonus.

Ignoring the current launch shortage which is inevitable, taking from it only the information that supply of consoles isn't a particular strongpoint based on estimates of how many units have been shipped, is not the principle of a complex to fab unit going to be detrimental to the plans of early-lead? How much of an install bonus were MS hoping for, seeing as they were so adamant that it was important, and how has the design of their hardware affected their ability to meet that installer base?

I think once they miss theyre projected sales for mid next year of around 5.5 million, thats the time to ask this question. We dont know, at this point and possibly for awhile, what MS 'expected' and what actually 'happened'. What we do know is they plan to sell about 5.5 mil. by June so if that doesnt happen, we know something went awry. Until then we're jsut specualting as to whether or not MS planned for any of this.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Um, the way I read the articles, that's not 102 launch titles:

Sony currently has 102 games scheduled or already in development for the PS3...

And Phil, I did not say brand success has nothing to do with next-gen. Of course it does. Brand success is a positive...just as first to market is a positive.

Neither one guarantees success...but they are both advantages.

This is the problem with conversing with you. I acknowledge both the pros and cons of MS's and Sony's relative positions. You seem to dismiss the advantages MS has.

 

[Phil]

Neither one guarantees success...but they are both advantages.

This is the problem with conversing with you. I acknowledge both the pros and cons of MS's and Sony's relative positions. You seem to dismiss the advantages MS has.

Appologies if it seemed I didn't acknowledge the potential advantages MS has. Sometimes I get the feeling everytime someone disagrees with something, it's always automatically assumed that one doesn't acknowledge the things we don't state.

As seen to what I replied to, I only really disagreed with your stance that "there will be many more titles on the market" that would amount to a significant advantage. Now that I re-read what you posted in your original post, I probably took that the wrong way but still felt reason enough to post my belief that the two consoles are following a launching timeframe that is quite close. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the part about the advantages based on development kits (IMO, I still don't think it's as cut and dry that having alpha devkits out earlier to more developers is necessarely better than less devkits to devs that are more representative of final hardware). In either case, it's certainly going to be an interesting gamble.

On the other hand, what I also think is a factor that hasn't been considered in this thread yet - a factor I have discussed in another thread a while ago - is that Microsoft is launching very early. In fact, Microsoft is attempting to launch a console at the time when most developers that are at the moment milking the PS2's userbase for what its worth because it has reached its prime time costing the least (experience, existant assets and libraries as very large userbase in the 90 million mark). How many of those PS2 developers at the moment are rushing out onto an expensive next generation console that doesn't have the brand recognition the current dominant one has? I'm sure some are, simply to get a early start on new hardware to sell software while there's little competing software around, yet a large part is also favoring milking the existing userbase and presumably taking a safe bet with the next Sony console or at least taking a "wait and see approach". This is something that most definately is hinder Microsoft at the moment of getting even better support of high profile titles and exclusives.

There are other factors as well, as is Sony's strong Japanese presence and the support that from Japan that goes hand in hand with it. Given the best seller lists, Japan's developer support is not to be underestimated - they might not match the quantity of U.S / EUropean developers, but the few they sell have impressive sales and the franchises have well recognised names that will only ensure support from current happy owners.

Based on the above, I don't necessarely see Microsoft having a much larger advantage on the software lineup (especially software that would target the current PlayStation owner). The software Microsoft is receiving at the moment is a very large influx on PC developers with PC games ports and a few gems here and there. Sure, as a Xbox owner, it's great - but as a PlayStation owner - IMO - it's not all that impressive. The Japanese support the Xbox is getting does have potential though, no doubt - but we'll have to see how that pans out ultimately.

 

[scooby_dooby]

On the flip side, the quality of MS's software tools, and the conventional approach to their CPU multi0threading will mean reduced development times, and reduced costs for developers who are worried about inflated budgets.

The fact that X360 will have a 10million+ userbase by the end of 06, and it's development environment is easier to work with, will definately help it gain developer support.

It's common sense that at launch PS3 will have less games than X360, even at the US launch (which for sony seems to be the REAL launch) the X360 will have many more games.

Going into 2007 it's anyone's guess, but MS does have quite a few advantages that might outweight the "safe bet" apporach, namely lower develpment costs and greater initial installed base.

 

[drpepper]

The fact that X360 will have a 10million+ userbase by the end of 06, and it's development environment is easier to work with, will definately help it gain developer support.

It's not a fact, it's Peter Moore taking a guess.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well it's common sense, they'll have 8-10 million sold.

On the topic of safe bets, analysts Piper Jaffrey have predicted the X360 to have 19million through 2008, with PS3 trailing at 15million. That's 3 full years for developers to cash in on the larger user base, and cheaper development environment of the 360.

 

[drpepper]

I don't see how it's common sense. It is just really an estimated guess. A projection. An extrapolation. But far from fact. We have to just wait and see.

And besides, aren't analyst usually dismissed on these boards?

Here's a safe bet for you, the Leafs won't win the Stanley Cup.

 

[Phil]

Well it's common sense, they'll have 8-10 million sold.

That's very bad wording on your part. A prediction of something that may or may not happen in the future isn't regarded as common-sense.

Edit: Ah, drpepper already cover it. :smile: