Something MS didn't factor into their plans?

I know I know, believe me I'm not saying this *is* the case... but at the same time the related conversation with the customer rep seems to speak in a manner that implies, 'this is widespread.'

Anyway as I said in my post to Hardknock, it's not that I think this is definitely the case. But I am saying that if it turns out *to* be the case, well it's going to suck some wind out of MS's launch momentum (for the reasons I prior gave).

 

isn't 3% considered the norm? (for hardware issues)

 

While there's no denying that there are big shortages what did we expect?

Did we expect the first worldwide launch ever, and MORE availabilitiy than past "one region at a time" launches? I don't see how anyone didn't see this coming, worldwide launch guys, no-one has every had the guts to go fir this, and so far MS is doing good, they're making it happen.

Hopefully for their sake they can REALLY ramp up production, and get another million out there on store shelves this X-mas.

 

QFT (as seems to be the saying of choice recently)

It's amazing the number of people spouting that sort of line recently though...

"Blah blah blah, it's not fair we have to wait longer to get our consoles because of limited stock, blah blah blah, the best solution would be to remove stock entirely from other countries..."

What is it that makes them that much more important that Europe and Japan should suffer so they had a better chance of getting a console now? They remind me of car drivers who use the wrong lane to overtake a whole bunch of traffic, why are they more important than the rest of us who are patiently waiting?

Personally as a European I'm glad and chuffed MS have taken this route even though I haven't personally pre-ordered, for once we're not half a year or more behind the US in actually getting the things and even though I'll have to wait to get mine, as so many Americans are now experiencing, it will be because of me not pre-ordering and not because Americans were deemed more important than the rest of us.

 

On the other hand, the mere fact he was able to get through to a customer rep so easily on launch day says something as well. If it's a 10% failiure rate, you would've had 50,000 customers all calling on the same day.

 

Truthfully if I had a problem with a console of mine, I would never call the manufacturer - it'd be straight to the retailer for me, for credit or exchange. But I may not represent most people. I mean but he was on hold for 40 min before he got anyone, so...

 

I don't know how you can discuss shortages without discussion the worldwide launch, the 2 are completely related. If they had only done the US launch there would've been at least twice as many consoles available, that's a huge difference.

BUt back to your question, the problem is that production has not ramped up as quickly as they had hoped, but only a few weeks ago they predicted 4.5-5.5 million sold by June, so that speaks to their current expectations f their production capacaties. Obviously they are not too concerned and have faith that it will pick up.

They started at 10,000/week, to make 5.5 million by june they will have to ramp uo to 130,000/week, and as of a coupel weeks ago they are still confident that will happen.

 

Interestingly, in regard to the rumors of defects Microsoft Germany's equivalent of MajorNelson (i.e. blogging marketing sock-puppet) has mentioned that it'd be better to contact Microsoft for an exchange of defective hardware than the retailer, as the retailer may not have a replacement available...

 

Right, well in this case totally. I mean what other option is there?

 

first of all since the launch date of ps3 or how many units actually sony will be able to supply within the launchwindow is open to speculation ,i think there are too many unknows and what ifs to make assumptions on the future of userbase, we'll just have to wait and see at this point.

But i feel like MS's goals of hitting 2.5 M within 3 months, 5 M before end of june and 10 M mark before the end of next calender year sounds easily achievable.Can sony steal ms's thunder and take the lead ( in 2005) by releasing ps3 early with a better than 360 line-up before 360 manages to have a substantial user base? There is a possibility( even if i think it's a slim one)but i say untill 2006(where 2 systems will go really head to head) ms's predictions will be unaffacted by what sony does.

 

Right, and they've recently re-evaluated their capacity and pegged their goal for 5.5mil bu June, so that means they don't forsee any real issues with production capacity.

BTW my numbers were off. Started at 10k/day(70k/week), if they think they can hit 5.5million by june, 10million bu end of next year, that means they are at confident they can hit ~25,000/day, or 165,000/week.

That would put them at ~8.5million made in 2006, which seems right on teh mark with their current goals.

 

I don't see how anyone can expect more than 5-6 million units over the first 6 months. In other words, that's a big a head start that one could expect...assuming PS3 ships multi-region (at least Japan and U.S.) by June.

Don't forget, it's not just the hardware that has the head start...but more importantly the software. There will be many more titles on the market, and (if MS is lucky) one or two blockbuster types to help continue to fuel 360 sales through a PS3 launch.

 

Should PS3 start at the time MS reaches 5 million units and sell at the same rate, it'd mean that when the Xbox reaches 10 million units, it'll still have twice as many users as the PS3... sounds good to me.

 

Who says PS3 hits in June!? I think that's the biggest flaw in your reasoning. Maybe in japan, but what does that matter?

It wil probably hit US in November, which is 5 months after the 5million mark, you're looking at more like 8 or 9 million by the time it hits US, and probably well over 10million before it finally launches worldwide.

 

Maybe they should have delayed the US launch instead, you presumptious, self-centered american...

 

As an American I resent that comment. Microsoft messed up on launch and thats all it is. More premiums would have been great but I guess we just have to wait now. No need for ridiculous name calling.