Something MS didn't factor into their plans?

[Carl B]

You have to realize that 500,000 consoles were sold yesterday, if even 1% of those has problems you have 5000 pissed off people who may potentially post horror stories.

Just remember, if everyone who had good experiences posted you would have 500,000 threads about NOT over heating.

I know I know, believe me I'm not saying this *is* the case... but at the same time the related conversation with the customer rep seems to speak in a manner that implies, 'this is widespread.'

Anyway as I said in my post to Hardknock, it's not that I think this is definitely the case. But I am saying that if it turns out *to* be the case, well it's going to suck some wind out of MS's launch momentum (for the reasons I prior gave).

 

[Tap In]

isn't 3% considered the norm? (for hardware issues)

 

[scooby_dooby]

From the sounds of it supply of XB360's is pretty darned limited. This strikes me as something of an oversight by MS. Their plan was to be first out the door with a substantial userbase by the time the competition arrives. From the sounds of it though they'll only manage a few million units. It seems to me their design, using several different component manufacturers, and their assemblagem, which has a lot of component shipping and processing in different places from what I remember reading, doesn't support this strategy because they're limited by fabrication rate. To get critical mass they'd want a machine at a price people want and in supplies to satisfy.

While there's no denying that there are big shortages what did we expect?

Did we expect the first worldwide launch ever, and MORE availabilitiy than past "one region at a time" launches? I don't see how anyone didn't see this coming, worldwide launch guys, no-one has every had the guts to go fir this, and so far MS is doing good, they're making it happen.

Hopefully for their sake they can REALLY ramp up production, and get another million out there on store shelves this X-mas.

 

[Jon Brittan]

Take a look at that statement closely...pot meet kettle.

QFT (as seems to be the saying of choice recently)

It's amazing the number of people spouting that sort of line recently though...

"Blah blah blah, it's not fair we have to wait longer to get our consoles because of limited stock, blah blah blah, the best solution would be to remove stock entirely from other countries..."

What is it that makes them that much more important that Europe and Japan should suffer so they had a better chance of getting a console now? They remind me of car drivers who use the wrong lane to overtake a whole bunch of traffic, why are they more important than the rest of us who are patiently waiting?

Personally as a European I'm glad and chuffed MS have taken this route even though I haven't personally pre-ordered, for once we're not half a year or more behind the US in actually getting the things and even though I'll have to wait to get mine, as so many Americans are now experiencing, it will be because of me not pre-ordering and not because Americans were deemed more important than the rest of us.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I know I know, believe me I'm not saying this *is* the case... but at the same time the related conversation with the customer rep seems to speak in a manner that implies, 'this is widespread.'

On the other hand, the mere fact he was able to get through to a customer rep so easily on launch day says something as well. If it's a 10% failiure rate, you would've had 50,000 customers all calling on the same day.

 

[Carl B]

On the other hand, the mere fact he was able to get through to a customer rep so easily on launch day says something as well. If it's a 10% failiure rate, you would've had 50,000 customers all calling on the same day.

Truthfully if I had a problem with a console of mine, I would never call the manufacturer - it'd be straight to the retailer for me, for credit or exchange. But I may not represent most people. I mean but he was on hold for 40 min before he got anyone, so...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

While there's no denying that there are big shortages what did we expect?

Did we expect the first worldwide launch ever, and MORE availabilitiy than past "one region at a time" launches?

No, and that wasn't the issue I was trying to raise. MS's strategy was launch first, right? To get consoles out there, right? To have a strong user base by the time the rivals hit stores, right? Looking at how manufacturing of XB360's is going, and what seems to be (we don't have official numbers yet) a quite a small launch number after several months of manufacturing - something like 2 million in 3 months - are MS going to be able to get a substantial user base? What were they aiming for (10 million worldwide by the time PS3 launches? 5 Million XB360s in the US by the time PS3 hits US shores?) and is the complexity of XB360 fabrication going to make that difficult?

Edit : Oh, classic! More bad rep for trying to start a a reasonable discussion, this one on console design and long-term strategies. Honestly, what's wrong with this place these days? Why are so few people (who respond to threads) capable of understanding debates that aren't 'XB360 is teh suxx' or 'PS3 is da dooM3D'?

 

[scooby_dooby]

I don't know how you can discuss shortages without discussion the worldwide launch, the 2 are completely related. If they had only done the US launch there would've been at least twice as many consoles available, that's a huge difference.

BUt back to your question, the problem is that production has not ramped up as quickly as they had hoped, but only a few weeks ago they predicted 4.5-5.5 million sold by June, so that speaks to their current expectations f their production capacaties. Obviously they are not too concerned and have faith that it will pick up.

They started at 10,000/week, to make 5.5 million by june they will have to ramp uo to 130,000/week, and as of a coupel weeks ago they are still confident that will happen.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Okay, I wasn't talking about shortages. Rereading my opening sentence I see it can be seen that way, but I was thinkong more of comments from analyst etc. saying how many consoles would be out and about, regardless of which territories there were in.

BUt back to your question, the problem is that production has not ramped up as quickly as they had hoped,

Right! See, that's exactly the sort of thing I'm talking about. Production hasn't ramped up as quickly as they hoped. Hence my question what is limiting the production? Could it be the complexity of the assembling (undoubtedly that has some impact, unless until supply trains are running smooth) is keeping production lower than anticipated? How much of a headstart are MS likely to get, and would they have been better off with a different console design that was quicker to manufacture? Let's say they went for a more costly design with eDRAM and GPU combined, and took a much greater hit in the initial losses, would that speed up production and help create a larger userbase? After all, it's MS's intention to have a large user base early on, so, this being a technical forum that discusses hardware, which has already discussed performance and pricing and marketting and software, how's about we discuss an aspect that hasn't been looked at yet - time to manufacture, and how that impacts the product.

 

[[maven]]

Truthfully if I had a problem with a console of mine, I would never call the manufacturer - it'd be straight to the retailer for me, for credit or exchange.

Interestingly, in regard to the rumors of defects Microsoft Germany's equivalent of MajorNelson (i.e. blogging marketing sock-puppet) has mentioned that it'd be better to contact Microsoft for an exchange of defective hardware than the retailer, as the retailer may not have a replacement available...

 

[Carl B]

Interestingly, in regard to the rumors of defects Microsoft Germany's equivalent of MajorNelson (i.e. blogging marketing sock-puppet) has mentioned that it'd be better to contact Microsoft for an exchange of defective hardware than the retailer, as the retailer may not have a replacement available...

Right, well in this case totally. I mean what other option is there?

 

[<nu>faust]

No, and that wasn't the issue I was trying to raise. MS's strategy was launch first, right? To get consoles out there, right? To have a strong user base by the time the rivals hit stores, right? Looking at how manufacturing of XB360's is going, and what seems to be (we don't have official numbers yet) a quite a small launch number after several months of manufacturing - something like 2 million in 3 months - are MS going to be able to get a substantial user base? What were they aiming for (10 million worldwide by the time PS3 launches? 5 Million XB360s in the US by the time PS3 hits US shores?) and is the complexity of XB360 fabrication going to make that difficult?

first of all since the launch date of ps3 or how many units actually sony will be able to supply within the launchwindow is open to speculation ,i think there are too many unknows and what ifs to make assumptions on the future of userbase, we'll just have to wait and see at this point.

But i feel like MS's goals of hitting 2.5 M within 3 months, 5 M before end of june and 10 M mark before the end of next calender year sounds easily achievable.Can sony steal ms's thunder and take the lead ( in 2005) by releasing ps3 early with a better than 360 line-up before 360 manages to have a substantial user base? There is a possibility( even if i think it's a slim one)but i say untill 2006(where 2 systems will go really head to head) ms's predictions will be unaffacted by what sony does.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Right! See, that's exactly the sort of thing I'm talking about. Production hasn't ramped up as quickly as they hoped. Hence my question what is limiting the production? Could it be the complexity of the assembling (undoubtedly that has some impact, unless until supply trains are running smooth) is keeping production lower than anticipated? How much of a headstart are MS likely to get, and would they have been better off with a different console design that was quicker to manufacture?

Right, and they've recently re-evaluated their capacity and pegged their goal for 5.5mil bu June, so that means they don't forsee any real issues with production capacity.

BTW my numbers were off. Started at 10k/day(70k/week), if they think they can hit 5.5million by june, 10million bu end of next year, that means they are at confident they can hit ~25,000/day, or 165,000/week.

That would put them at ~8.5million made in 2006, which seems right on teh mark with their current goals.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Okay. To me 5-6 million consoles by the time PS3 hits doesn't sound like a big headstart. I don't know if when MS decided to release this year they were expecting/hoping Sony to release same time next year. It'd be nice to know what their original intentions were way back when they planned their XB360 strategy.

Do we yet have official numbers for launch XB360's produced? That seem important to see if they were reaching their targets.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

I don't see how anyone can expect more than 5-6 million units over the first 6 months. In other words, that's a big a head start that one could expect...assuming PS3 ships multi-region (at least Japan and U.S.) by June.

Don't forget, it's not just the hardware that has the head start...but more importantly the software. There will be many more titles on the market, and (if MS is lucky) one or two blockbuster types to help continue to fuel 360 sales through a PS3 launch.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Should PS3 start at the time MS reaches 5 million units and sell at the same rate, it'd mean that when the Xbox reaches 10 million units, it'll still have twice as many users as the PS3... sounds good to me.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Okay. To me 5-6 million consoles by the time PS3 hits doesn't sound like a big headstart. I don't know if when MS decided to release this year they were expecting/hoping Sony to release same time next year. It'd be nice to know what their original intentions were way back when they planned their XB360 strategy.

Do we yet have official numbers for launch XB360's produced? That seem important to see if they were reaching their targets.

Who says PS3 hits in June!? I think that's the biggest flaw in your reasoning. Maybe in japan, but what does that matter?

It wil probably hit US in November, which is 5 months after the 5million mark, you're looking at more like 8 or 9 million by the time it hits US, and probably well over 10million before it finally launches worldwide.

 

[Guden Oden]

Arrogant assholes. Should have delayed the Euro and Japan launch.

Maybe they should have delayed the US launch instead, you presumptious, self-centered american...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Who says PS3 hits in June!? I think that's the biggest flaw in your reasoning. Maybe in japan, but what does that matter?

It wil probably hit US in November, which is 5 months after the 5million mark, you're looking at more like 8 or 9 million by the time it hits US, and probably well over 10million before it finally launches worldwide.

I wasn't assuming it'd launch June exactly. Just trying to work out probable figures. I don't think a November launch is any more likely than a June launch though, but there's no info to go on.

Still, no-one's yet inputted anything the benefits/costs of an easy to fab machine. Do people think this (a 5-6 million unit lead guestimate) is enough to gain that first-launch advantage? Or would it have been better for MS to produce a simpler to make console, probably more costly, to double or triple that lead and really drive forward as a fast selling console?

 

[RavenFox]

Maybe they should have delayed the US launch instead, you presumptious, self-centered american...

As an American I resent that comment. Microsoft messed up on launch and thats all it is. More premiums would have been great but I guess we just have to wait now. No need for ridiculous name calling.