Something MS didn't factor into their plans?

[Shifty Geezer]

From the sounds of it supply of XB360's is pretty darned limited. This strikes me as something of an oversight by MS. Their plan was to be first out the door with a substantial userbase by the time the competition arrives. From the sounds of it though they'll only manage a few million units. It seems to me their design, using several different component manufacturers, and their assemblagem, which has a lot of component shipping and processing in different places from what I remember reading, doesn't support this strategy because they're limited by fabrication rate. To get critical mass they'd want a machine at a price people want and in supplies to satisfy.

I'm left thinking they didn't consider well enough how they were going to make these machines quickly. They cancel out their long-term losses on last gen by designs and contracts that allow price scaling, but at the moment haven't got a very fluid supply chain.

Could this be a long-enough problem to run into PS3 and Revolution's release? Where are the bottlenecks and how can they be overcome? Is the idea to go with, say, a seperate eDRAM and GPU module good for economy but bad for productivity, and hence it could come to limit MS's early lead? How much of a lead would they need to have a large developer-support advantage over PS3 (which is AFAIK the only benefit)?

 

[dukmahsik]

no, MS has stated they are shipping consoles every week. This is backed up by every major store chain I've talked to saying they are getting shipments every week.

Every console ever launched has faced shortages, 360 is no different.

 

[NavNucST3]

Of course they factored availability into their plans, this is only a big deal now, because the internet as it exists today is much more prevalent in terms of the information disclosed and the rate at which it flows. I don't recall their EVER being enough launch units to go around, and to me, once people started hearing that the pre-orders were going fast that should have been a clue to them that maybe they might want to get their act together and put down $50 on a system. Worst case scenario being that you hate everything you've seen from the machine and get your money back, the flip-side of that being you love everything and now you just need to pay it off.

I also think developers would take a look at attach rates of the system, I would be very interested to see what the current rate is. Since I was able to buy two 360s I have some duplicates but my attach rate goes like this: 2 360s, one wifi, 2 12-month Live! kits, 2 pgr3, 2 kameo, condemend, NFS: most wanted, nba 2k6, COD2, PDZ, Outpost Kaloki X, 1 EA Chicago Bears gamer picture, 2000 MS points

 

[DemoCoder]

Attach rate can only be computed once the mainstream gets the consoles. The launch was dominated by hard core gamers and stores pushing bundles. This will skew the figures alot because of selection bias.

 

[Harry Ola]

What is undoubtedly true is that they could have sold a lot more than they have done already if they had made more of them. Most will still get one, but the longer it takes people to get one, the more the early launch advantage is diminished.

Incidentally, they want to sell 10 million by end of 2006.

http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=61867

 

[drpepper]

I think they'll work out the kinks by the time PS3 and revolution come out (whether you're counting NA or Japan I don't know...). Just my gut feeling anyways...

Microsoft at this point seem to be demonstrating that they're still new at this whole thing. They were so focused (ad proud) at a worldwide launch that I don't think they possibly anticipate the problems forthcoming nor the ensuing consumer reaction.

One bottle neck I can think of, and was pointed out a while back when Peter Moore stated that they needed to rent as many 747s as possible. i'm guessing he's saying that shipping boxes from the plant to the stroes was more difficult than expected. Well, this is the worst time of the year to rely on airborn deliveries as every other company is gearing up for the holiday season in NA and Europe. They will need all the help they can get wrt this.

In terms of a lead to gain developer support... Well they need one heck of a lead, and in my head i'm thinking of mostly japanese developers. Sony already has lots of support plus Sony's first party games are pretty impressive. So they are definitely not lacking in games.

I think MS didn't make it easy on themselves having a worldwide launch. On paper it's better, but really, is it worth it?

 

[NavNucST3]

Attach rate can only be computed once the mainstream gets the consoles. The launch was dominated by hard core gamers and stores pushing bundles. This will skew the figures alot because of selection bias.

Point taken, but the bias cuts both ways, one cannot assume that just because someone bought a machine yesterday that they are a hard-core gamer, that would lead to expectancy bias.

I did not have to buy a bundle at either location from which I bought my systems. If as you say we have to wait for the mainstream before "valid numbers" are computed, I can only think that the attach rate would be similar if only because the number of games will have grown exponentially by that time.
What time frame would you propose before one could begin to compute "untainted" numbers?

 

[Carl B]

As I mentioned in another thread, I think that one of the biggest 'stumbles' of the launch may be if the return/defect rate remains as high as seems to have been indicated by some posters, and reflected in MS' customer service response. Not only would that perhaps paint a 'low quality' picture, depending, but would soak up post-Christmas stocks as replacement consoles are shipped. Who knows, I don't expect the 'low quality' thing to hang around more than a month or three, but combned with continued supply constraints, could have a dulling effect on MS' 'hype' momentum, depending on when PS3 launches.

 

[Hardknock]

From the sounds of it supply of XB360's is pretty darned limited. This strikes me as something of an oversight by MS. Their plan was to be first out the door with a substantial userbase by the time the competition arrives. From the sounds of it though they'll only manage a few million units. It seems to me their design, using several different component manufacturers, and their assemblagem, which has a lot of component shipping and processing in different places from what I remember reading, doesn't support this strategy because they're limited by fabrication rate. To get critical mass they'd want a machine at a price people want and in supplies to satisfy.

I'm left thinking they didn't consider well enough how they were going to make these machines quickly. They cancel out their long-term losses on last gen by designs and contracts that allow price scaling, but at the moment haven't got a very fluid supply chain.

Yeah I'm sure a multi-billion dollar company that has been researching and developing this console for 3 years didn't consider potential manufacturing problems. Every launch has shortages(save for the PSP.) As long as they sell a few million units and they have established with the general public that Xbox 360 is a diserable product, they have reached their goal. When the PS3 launches it will have shortages aswell.

 

[Hardknock]

As I mentioned in another thread, I think that one of the biggest 'stumbles' of the launch may be if the return/defect rate remains as high as seems to have been indicated by some posters, and reflected in MS' customer service response. Not only would that perhaps paint a 'low quality' picture, depending, but would soak up post-Christmas stocks as replacement consoles are shipped. Who knows, I don't expect the 'low quality' thing to hang around more than a month or three, but combned with continued supply constraints, could have a dulling effect on MS' 'hype' momentum, depending on when PS3 launches.

And what's the defective rate of the Xbox 360 if you don't mind me asking? Or are you basing this off message board posters?

 

[Carl B]

And what's the defective rate of the Xbox 360 if you don't mind me asking? Or are you basing this off message board posters?

I linked to my post, which gives the MS representative account. What part of my post did you consider to be 'bashing'? If you don't mind me asking of course...

 

[NavNucST3]

I think MS didn't make it easy on themselves having a worldwide launch. On paper it's better, but really, is it worth it?

So what is the solution, delay the other markets? Ok, so what does that give us another couple hundred thousand units? You don't envision that the same reaction would occur for the people who didn't get those extra units as well, not to mention other markets which would have no units, other than import.

I don't understand the logic of the angst against a worldwide launch, either way you look at it-it is still a launch, and there are going to be unhappy people regardless.

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

no, MS has stated they are shipping consoles every week. This is backed up by every major store chain I've talked to saying they are getting shipments every week.

Every console ever launched has faced shortages, 360 is no different.

Please. This isn't the time to be a Microsoft sychophant nut tick. They fucked up, plain and simple. There weren't even 400,000 systems launched yesterday. MS won't even break 1 millon systems sold in NA at the end of 2005. I bet Kaz Hirai is laughing his ass off along with Kutaragi-san. MS thought they had it all figured out. Seems they didn't. They were so arrogant to believe that they could successfully pull off a worldwide launch. Now they know why Sony and Nintendo have never done it. Because it only succeeds in pissing people the hell off.

Arrogant assholes. Should have delayed the Euro and Japan launch.

 

[dukmahsik]

Please. This isn't the time to be a Microsoft sychophant nut tick. They fucked up, plain and simple. There weren't even 400,000 systems launched yesterday. MS won't even break 1 millon systems sold in NA at the end of 2005. I bet Kaz Hirai is laughing his ass off along with Kutaragi-san. MS thought they had it all figured out. Seems they didn't. They were so arrogant to believe that they could successfully pull off a worldwide launch. Now they know why Sony and Nintendo have never done it. Because it only succeeds in pissing people the hell off.

Arrogant assholes. Should have delayed the Euro and Japan launch.

I understand you are upset, but there are hundreds of thousands of others that are enjoying their 360 at this time.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yeah I'm sure a multi-billion dollar company that has been researching and developing this console for 3 years didn't consider potential manufacturing problems. Every launch has shortages(save for the PSP.) As long as they sell a few million units and they have established with the general public that Xbox 360 is a diserable product, they have reached their goal. When the PS3 launches it will have shortages aswell.

Yes, I appreciate that, though it wasn't my point (and incidentally all companies like people make mistakes and oversights). My point was for MS to take advantage of an early lead, that's going to be less tahn a year and maybe less than six months, they need stock. Lots of it. Lots of units being sold. The construction of XB360 is definitely quite complex going by the way I've heard (read rather) MS peeps talk about the movement of parts. A complex construction process is going to slow down production rates, which is quite the opposite of what MS needs for an early lead bonus.

Ignoring the current launch shortage which is inevitable, taking from it only the information that supply of consoles isn't a particular strongpoint based on estimates of how many units have been shipped, is not the principle of a complex to fab unit going to be detrimental to the plans of early-lead? How much of an install bonus were MS hoping for, seeing as they were so adamant that it was important, and how has the design of their hardware affected their ability to meet that installer base?

 

[Hardknock]

I linked to my post, which gives the MS representative account. What part of my post did you consider to be 'bashing'? If you don't mind me asking of course...

Well the post that you linked to didn't actually have a "MS representative's account." But rather a message board poster who called MS and talked with a CS rep's account. I have no reason to doubt what he's saying, but that is by no means an official statement or confirmation of a huge problem.

As I mentioned in another thread, I think that one of the biggest 'stumbles' of the launch may be if the return/defect rate remains as high as seems to have been indicated by some posters, and reflected in MS' customer service response.

We don't know how high the defective rate really is and until we have more concrete evidence certainly shouldn't make such presumptuous statments. My console is perfect and I don't know anyone else that has bought a defective one. So go figure.

 

[<nu>faust]

i don't think anybody other than ms really know how big is this defective unit issue is at this moment,we should wait a little bit before making assumption based on these reports. There were many complaints and reports about defective ps2/psp units during those systems' launches but ppl who complained ended up being really small percentage of the userbase.

 

[NavNucST3]

[anger snipped]
Arrogant assholes. Should have delayed the Euro and Japan launch.

Take a look at that statement closely...pot meet kettle.

 

[Carl B]

We don't know how high the defective rate really is and until we have more concrete evidence certainly shouldn't make such presumptuous statments. My console is perfect and I don't know anyone else that has bought a defective one. So go figure.

Well but my post didn't make claims to know - even make claims to imply anything other than 'at the moment' - this seems to be the case. And my posited outcome depended soley on that not only being borne out, but continuing to be the case into the near future as well. And within that context, I stand by my conclusions. If the 'IF' portion of my post goes to 'ELSE,' then it doesn't matter anyway, but I was simply going down the 'THEN' portion of the logic.

Believe me I have no personal interest in 360 having hardware problems.

 

[scooby_dooby]

As I mentioned in another thread, I think that one of the biggest 'stumbles' of the launch may be if the return/defect rate remains as high as seems to have been indicated by some posters, and reflected in MS' customer service response. Not only would that perhaps paint a 'low quality' picture, depending, but would soak up post-Christmas stocks as replacement consoles are shipped. Who knows, I don't expect the 'low quality' thing to hang around more than a month or three, but combned with continued supply constraints, could have a dulling effect on MS' 'hype' momentum, depending on when PS3 launches.

You have to realize that 500,000 consoles were sold yesterday, if even 1% of those has problems you have 5000 pissed off people who may potentially post horror stories.

Just remember, if everyone who had good experiences posted you would have 500,000 threads about NOT over heating.