Saudi Arabia worried by high oil prices

[pax]

Japanese cars were horrible back then. I had a datsun 310 gx made in 79 which was my first used car... rust bucket... They really became great cars in the mid 80's both fuel efficient and reliable.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Keeping tabs on actual oil reserves and projecting cost increases based on consumption shouldve been a primary concern of gov. The gov shouldve warned the public years ago that energy costs could spike and or rise rapidly in a given time frame.

Why does the gov't have to do this? This is common knowledge.

The gov't should also warn about spiking and higher costs of energry, with every new regulation on generation and distribution it forces on the industry. (Such as different fomulations of gasoline for different regions at different times of the year). Right?

 

[pax]

edit double post

 

[pax]

No its not common knowledge... I dont know where you get this. Public knowledge would have people avoid gas guzzling vehicles on the cusp of severe oil shortages.

And why do you talk about other regulations as if they had anything to do with a long term geological study of oil supplies in the interest of public knowledge?

Do you trust shell and other oil firms to do it?

 

[DemoCoder]

How many people buy cars on the "cusp" of a severe oil shortage. This is a contrived example. So you're saying anyone who bought an SUV in the last 5 years is in this "cusp"? And if people really thought there was going to be an imminent "cusp", why aren't those companies with better MPG marketing this? Why isn't Toyota riding this all the way to the bank? Why don't their ads leverage this? They certainly have profit motive to put out marketing collateral. They could even take advantage of the war on terrorism saying using a Prius keeps less $$$ out of the hands of Wahhabists.

Pax, you're addicted to gloomism. I don't know why you have such an uneasy feeling all the time, but throughout history, people have been uneasy about their state of affairs. You keep thinking everythings gonna go boom suddenly. From the economy, to oil, to the environment, to politics, you're a virtual Cassandra on every issue.

It seems like, for you, the future isn't bright, unless somehow the government gets involved to "do something"

 

[Joe DeFuria]

No its not common knowledge... I dont know where you get this.

I get it from every time there is a "spike" in gas prices, it makes the news, and it becomes another political talking point. (Of course, when prices go back down, a trough, we don't hear about it.)

Public knowledge would have people avoid gas guzzling vehicles on the cusp of severe oil shortages.

Eh? See DC's last post. Sustained high prices can get consumers to consider buying a new vehicle if the costs to run their current one are too high. The market will dictate it...no need for the gov't to get involved.

Consumers weather "peaks" and swings in energy prices all the time. Hell, every Summer we get a localize peak in prices.

Do you trust shell and other oil firms to do it?

Actually...yes.

Isn't shell concerned with making money? What do you think they'll do if raw materials dry up? They'll either go the way of the do-do, or they will diversify and enter new energy fields in the transition.

 

[Legion]

where is this "government fixes all" philosphy coming from? Its seem to have little or no economic support and likewise little historic support.

 

[pax]

Not asking for gov to fix everything. Toyoto didnt get a dime of gov subsidy to dev its hybrids and tho the big 3 got I think was a billion from gov to do same they often end up simply buying japanese tech like Ford just did.

Its not about beeing gloomy about everything god were simply dealing with those issues that need attention.

If you think fluctuations in gas prices is enough of warning for the market to adjust I dont think you have any idea there joe how fast and bad this transition might be as oil deeply pervades our economy. It takes a long time to adjust. And yes if the price spikes are as bad as I think they will be there will be backlash from consumers on oil firms and gov alike.

But I guess its ok for shell to lie TWICE in the last 3 months. After all they are only protecting their investors.

Its amazing how the neo con mind works. You ask for simple scientific analysis and studies on an essential commodity from an impartial source and of course that equates with some vast socialist conspiracy where gov does and runs everything.

 

[Legion]

Michael Moore lied a lot more than twice and you still chose to believe him Pax


Couldn't resist

 

[pax]

Oh poo! I chose to believe some of what he said and disregard the rest because I thought the overall work was still worth it. It was stylish and those kinds of docus that gain popularity are few and far between.

Tho now Id hope to see the new docu "The Corporation" make its way as well in the public eye...

I mean Its not like Im saying Shell isnt producing ANY oil now am I?

 

[Natoma]

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

A toyota corolla sold in 1975 got 25+mpg, which exceeded CAFE, try again. In fact, Honda and Volkswagon also sold cars in the US that exceeded 28mpg. What do you think inspired GM, Ford, et al more? Losing billions of dollars of sales to the Japanese and Europeans because Americans were suddenly incentivized to buy foreign compacts, or government regulations that they could stall on if they wanted (see SUVs, California MPG standards), and the threat of a few million in government fines? (even GM's website claims you have 3 years of noncompliance on CAFE, and even then, it's a slap on the wrist: $5 million in fines for 1 million vehicles sold per each mpg under the standard)

Americans didn't buy fuel efficient cars because of government law, they bought them because their wallets were hurting from fuel prices. At the time, the only alternative was import cars. EPA MPG data (available on website) by car model year shows most American manufacturers were still shipping gas guzzlers that didn't comply with CAFE by 1980. A few went over 20mpg, a few approached it, most cars manufactured by Detroit were still under.


It was the price of gas that drove American demand to MPG efficient cars, which drove the big three to get their act together. Otherwise, if gas prices were cheap, Americans would have just bought trucks, wagons, and SUVs in the 70s LIKE THEY DO TODAY, DESPITE CAFE.

As long as gas is cheap, performance and size matter more to Americans, and that demand is transmitted to the manufacturers, who will find a way, come hell or highwater, to get around government regulations to sell Americans *WHAT THEY WANT* If not SUVs, then loopholes in the law through lobbying, or court unjunctions against the law, etc. (as what happened to the ridiculous California law that required X% of vehicles to be electric/zero emission by 2000)

1974 average mpg standard: 12.9
1987 average mpg standard: 26.2 (12% "light truck," i.e. SUV)
2001 average mpg standard: 24.4 (49% "light truck," i.e. SUV)

I think it's fairly obvious CAFE has worked DemoCoder. Why you continue to poo poo it is anyone's guess.

p.s.: SUVs were the lazy Detroit car manufacturer's answer to the CAFE loophole. But guess what? Honda and Toyota out innovated the Big 3 in this regard and now they're about to have their ass handed to them on a platter when Honda and Toyata release 40-60mpg SUVs in the next year or two.

You want to guess who's going to win this war?

 

[jvd]

.s.: SUVs were the lazy Detroit car manufacturer's answer to the CAFE loophole. But guess what? Honda and Toyota out innovated the Big 3 in this regard and now they're about to have their ass handed to them on a platter when Honda and Toyata release 40-60mpg SUVs in the next year or two.

Um mercades when the new jeeps come out with the desil engines that get 28/34 oh some jeeps (not the usa ) already have the engine .

 

[DemoCoder]

Fallacious reasoning Natoma. The Japanese were selling us most of our fuel efficient cars *BEFORE* Cafe had any effect on American manufacturers.

You claim CAFE, I claim foreign competition. Both theories can fit the available evidence, but I find getting trashed by Japanese manufacturers as far more compelling an explaination than suvertable "slap on the risk" CAFE fines.

 

[Natoma]

DC, i was under the impression that the japanase got those huge sales increase because they made better car (didnt break down as often, et al). I wasnt here during that time period so i might be mistaken.

later,
epic

Japanese cars during that time were pretty awful.

 

[pax]

And the Ford Escape Hybrid out this year with v6 perf and 40 mpg. Gotta give em credit here too... For my part I dont think Ill be as affected by an oil crisis as I have no car payments on my old camry and am well informed enough to buy a hybrid when the time comes to dump the old car. I also know enough to keep an old car reliable on the road and thus not have to buy a new tincan every 4-5 years.

I am worried about all those who dont know and especially truckers and how few of them could afford to switch them to some new hybrid in short order. Or farmers with uber expensive farm equipement.

 

[Natoma]

Fallacious reasoning Natoma. The Japanese were selling us most of our fuel efficient cars *BEFORE* Cafe had any effect on American manufacturers.

You claim CAFE, I claim foreign competition. Both theories can fit the available evidence, but I find getting trashed by Japanese manufacturers as far more compelling an explaination than suvertable "slap on the risk" CAFE fines.

I'd wager if you look at the actual import sales of Japanese fuel efficient cars vs Big 3 during the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, you'll see very little corrolation in lost sales. If it were that big of an issue, the Big 3 automakers would not have milked the SUV boom during the 90s and would have instead gone for Hybrid technology as they should have done.

 

[Natoma]

And the Ford Escape Hybrid out this year with v6 perf and 40 mpg. Gotta give em credit here too... For my part I dont think Ill be as affected by an oil crisis as I have no car payments on my old camry and am well informed enough to buy a hybrid when the time comes to dump the old car. I also know enough to keep an old car reliable on the road and thus not have to buy a new tincan every 4-5 years.

I am worried about all those who dont know and especially truckers and how few of them could afford to switch them to some new hybrid in short order. Or farmers with uber expensive farm equipement.

Toyota and Honda are both releasing 3rd gen hybrid engines while Ford is working on 1st gen. I think you'll find the Toyota and Honda engines have better horsepower and higher gasoline->electric conversion than their Ford counterpart.

I give Ford credit for finally getting on the ball and licensing the technology. However the Escape has been pushed into 2005. But GM and Chrysler are still dragging their feet. Thankfully GM is pushing into Drive-by-wire technologies and Hydrogen tech, but it's going to be at least another 2-4 decades before that technology and distribution system pans out. Until then, they've got to use Hybrid technology, which means they're a good 3-5 years behind the curve. Not good for their businesses imo to have that lack of foresight.

 

[pax]

I cant afford the Highlander tho and the prius is also pretty pricey for what you get. I can get the Escape for less than the Prius when looking at the us advertised price. I had read that Ford licensed Toyota technology but not sure if the 2005 Escape is using it...

Itd be nice for Honda to also use its hybrid tech on an suv. The element and crv are pretty nice.

 

[DemoCoder]

Fallacious reasoning Natoma. The Japanese were selling us most of our fuel efficient cars *BEFORE* Cafe had any effect on American manufacturers.

You claim CAFE, I claim foreign competition. Both theories can fit the available evidence, but I find getting trashed by Japanese manufacturers as far more compelling an explaination than suvertable "slap on the risk" CAFE fines.

I'd wager if you look at the actual import sales of Japanese fuel efficient cars vs Big 3 during the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, you'll see very little corrolation in lost sales. If it were that big of an issue, the Big 3 automakers would not have milked the SUV boom during the 90s and would have instead gone for Hybrid technology as they should have done.

How old are you? It was an issue in the late 70s and early 80s when oil prices were high. You don't remember the attacks on Japanese cars, the protests, the "buy american" campaigns. Go read Brock Yates "The Decline and Fall of the American Automobile Industry " or "The End of Detroit" for the full story. Both Detroit and Japan used to produce shoddy inconsistent quality cars. But near the end of the 70s, Japanese manufacturers started producing very high quality, efficient, cheap, small cars, and the Big Three went on producing heavy, shoddy, big bloated vehicles. CAFE did not wean them from hit obsession. Today, the Big Three's market share is 57% and most of that is SUVs. Some success for CAFE.

The only reason American car manufacturers didn't lose as much was because even as their marketshare was going down, the total number of cars bought in the world was going up, as was margins on SUVs, so it was possible for them to suffer a dramatic decline in marketshare while maintaining revenues.



Average fuel efficiency most went up due to European and Japanese small car imports. Subtract out American manufactured cars and it would be alot higher. Yes, fuel efficiency did eventually rise on American manufactured sedans, but it lagged CAFE's implementation. The Big Three lost way way more money because of lost marketshare than they did from potential government fines.

 

[epicstruggle]

Toyota and Honda are both releasing 3rd gen hybrid engines while Ford is working on 1st gen. I think you'll find the Toyota and Honda engines have better horsepower and higher gasoline->electric conversion than their Ford counterpart.

Im going to have to politely disagree with you here. Yest toyota and honda might be working on 3rd gen hybrid engines. And technically ford is working on 1st gen. What i feel isnt mentioned is that ford will have just as good if not better tech in their hybrid then even a 2nd gen hybrid from the japanese. Ford most likely knows how a 1st and 2nd gen hybrid works and will improve on these. So Im of the opinion ford will release cars that are almost as good as a 3rd gen hybrid.

I give Ford credit for finally getting on the ball and licensing the technology. However the Escape has been pushed into 2005. But GM and Chrysler are still dragging their feet. Thankfully GM is pushing into Drive-by-wire technologies and Hydrogen tech, but it's going to be at least another 2-4 decades before that technology and distribution system pans out. Until then, they've got to use Hybrid technology, which means they're a good 3-5 years behind the curve. Not good for their businesses imo to have that lack of foresight.

There is alot of new tech coming, im hoping. Id love to buy a car that gets better than 40mpgs and dont mind spending a bit more to get it.

later,
epic