Remember there's no 45G, only 40G. So there won't be a half-node this time around, and we'll need to wait ~18 months for 32G which is a ~40% shrink. And then presumably ~12 months later we'll have a 28nm half-node...
And yes, I'm very curious about the timeframe for 45G at NV and ATI, because as I said it's a 3x+ improvement in perf/mm² over 65nm (presumably closer to 2x once you consider that you'll likely want to optimize more for power, but still). So it doesn't matter what the wafer costs or the process yields are; whoever is there first has an obvious advantage (unlike 80/65 which wasn't as IMO only a small advantage), as long as his chip yields are good enough (i.e. if his design isn't well tuned to the process characteristics and thus yields badly or has awful awful variability, that would still be a big problem).