Research: Massive consumer belief in the PlayStation 3

[Krat0s]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3978&Itemid=2

According to the study by Los Angeles based Interpret, 8.9 million U.S consumers ‘are prepared’ to pay full price ($500 or $600) for the PlayStation 3 this fall, compared to 5.7 million consumers who are willing to buy Wii at $250 and just 800,000 people who are willing to pay full price for Xbox 360 ($300 to $400).

The numbers skew high in general (it will be 2008 before PS3 has an installed base of over 12 million in the US) but what’s interesting is the ratios, and the clear brand presence owned by Sony.

Interpret CEO Michael Dowling said “Actual sales will be dictated by supply constraints, but if Sony had enough supply in the marketplace to fulfill demand, Microsoft would have a very difficult time at its current price point. What Microsoft is hoping for is the early lead helping to drive stronger installed base for them. It’s certainly helped them over the short term.â€￾

360 might be in a tough spot between PS3 and Wii. Playstation is a huge brand and Wii is something completely new.

 

[slider]

There's obviously something very wrong with their sampling I reckon. :\

Not that I'm an expert.

I avoided posting this cos I reckon no good will come of it, dammit!

 

[Bobbler]

I think everyone knows the Playstation brand is pretty damn strong among the masses, and Wii looks like it'll sell pretty well initially based off it's price and uniqueness alone.

I am curious as to who funded this little study and how they went about getting information.

 

[Dr. Meaty]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3978&Itemid=2


"This research, released first to Next Generation, was derived from a sample of 2,000 interviews Interpret conducted online, weighted to 2004 Census data of 13 to 54 year-olds in the U.S. Researchers ran a parallel random digit dial telephone study as a back-up to weigh the data to what the US population looks like to ensure that the online data was not over-representing females, which often occurs with online surveys."

 

[Tap In]

Data extrapolated from 2000 Internet people?

 

[Qroach]

internet polls are mostly BS. This study isn't worth much

 

[djdev]

internet polls are mostly BS. This study isn't worth much

Yeah, I would dismiss this.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Here's the problem with this report, 360 is going to sell millions in the next 3 months, at full price, so how can their only be 800,000 in all of US??

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Data extrapolated from 2000 Internet people?

...

internet polls are mostly BS. This study isn't worth much

Actually it says 2,000 interviews, that were carried out online. That'd be the same as say 2,000 telephone interviews, or 2,000 clipboard interviews at a mall. That's different to an internet poll with 2,000 respondents. Might be using these consumer question groups where people sign up and choose to answer questionnaires regarding products in return for prize draws etc. I think they're generally accepted as about as good as an other research method. Statistically I don't know how well 2,000 samples can be trusted, though some chap was posting on this forum a while back about statistics and relevancy and sampling size, who may be able to shed light, from a mathematical POV.

Whether these conclusions are indicative or not, who knows? It depends on where their sources come from etc. It seems every week there's new research that shows product x is in the lead and y is trailing, with x and y alternating! Certainly though the technique is probably the same as most sampling. eg. TV ratings are (or at least used to be, with air-wave transmissions) 'guesses' based on a selection of a few thousand people to represent the entire nation. That's assuming this was a proper interview and not a cheapo internet poll, which I don't think it is, this being a reserach firm and not a gaming mag-site or similar.

 

[zed]

8.9 million a willing to pay, true i believe that but the number available this years is ~10% of that thus theyre gonna haveto make do with other choices. im betting the sales figures for nov/dec will be first wii then ps2 then xb360 + last ps3

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Here's the problem with this report, 360 is going to sell millions in the next 3 months, at full price, so how can their only be 800,000 in all of US??

One can only guess that though they'll buy XB360, they are 'unprepared' to!

I've never been a big fan of these sorts of statistics myself, for such obvious reasons. They don't seem to tally with common sense a lot of the time. But then scientists have never cared much for common sense!

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

If the researchers ran a parallel phone study, why didn't they do the phone study to determine the accuracy of their results, rather than the accuracy of their sample?

If I read that correctly, they were unsure as to whether their internet sample would be representative of the population so they ran a phone study to confirm it.

But we don't know what they were actually confirming with the telephone study other than gender, because that's all that is referenced.

Like anything else, it's crap unless a full study is published with the entire methodology revealed.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Like anything else, it's crap unless a full study is published with the entire methodology revealed.

Wasn't it like a 100page report?

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Wasn't it like a 100page report?

No.. The entire research report was 100 pages, and from the summary it appears that the primary focus of the study was to broaden media audiences through different business models.

Again, making the 360/PS3/Wii claims even more flimsy because it becomes unclear as to what the actual purpose of the study was, and who it was that funded the study.

Actually.. Now that I go to their website, it's very possible that gamebiz actually funded the study themselves, because their website looks like it was developed and maintained by a pair of graduate students.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Actually.. Now that I go to their website, it's very possible that gamebiz actually funded the study themselves, because their website looks like it was developed and maintained by a pair of graduate students.

If you goto the media section of their site, there are links talking about the company's inception.

http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/apr2006/id20060426_364634.htm

Nielsen veterans recently formed Interpret, a company designed to help plan, test, and measure content and marketing strategies

Earlier this month, Michael Dowling, Grant Johnson and Jason Kramer founded Interpret LLC. The company's main focus is to plan, test and measure content on new media platforms. Interpret LLC pledged to "bridge the knowledge gap between the key stakeholders of the new media world"... but how exactly?

 

[Inane_Dork]

Here's the problem with this report, 360 is going to sell millions in the next 3 months, at full price, so how can their only be 800,000 in all of US??

That's the most, uh, unexpected thing I saw. Either people are not prepared for what they're going to do, the statistics are flawed or MS is going to have their worst holiday season ever.

 

[scooby_dooby]

That's the most, uh, unexpected thing I saw. Either people are not prepared for what they're going to do, the statistics are flawed or MS is going to have their worst holiday season ever.

I'll take option 2

 

[fulcizombie]

Oh no...

Xbox360 is doomed,DOOOOOOOOOOOMEEEEEEEEEED.

 

[Tap In]

That's the most, uh, unexpected thing I saw. Either people are not prepared for what they're going to do, the statistics are flawed or MS is going to have their worst holiday season ever.

exactly... I have little doubt that the PS3 data is close but 800k for 360?

analysts are predicting 3 million in the next 2 months.

maybe they qualified all the respondents as PS2 owners only, first.

 

[London Geezer]

8.9 million U.S consumers ‘are prepared’ to pay full price ($500 or $600) for the PlayStation 3 this fall, compared to 5.7 million consumers who are willing to buy Wii

Even if that data was true, good luck to both Sony and Nintendo trying to keep all those people happy!!

To be honest, seen how many people bought a PS2, i can believe that there are about 9M people who are "prepared" to pay for a PS3. Still, being "prepared" doesn't mean that they would actually buy the products.

That's a common problem with marketing: in the end the consumers do whatever they want, as much as they say they want something, their minds are very volitile. You can predict, you can make polls and ask the people if they would buy their products, but in the end that means nothing cause lots of them won't actually buy them, or won't buy them at the time they said they would. People have their lives and forget things, have things happening in their lives that affect they real purchasing behaviour... so many things that can happen, and in the end that silly 8.9M figure means very little, simply because believe it or not, the space between people's wallets and the shop tills is VERY large and with LOADS of obstacles in between, and even the smallest obstacle affects the transaction at the end of the day. Especially when we're talking about $500 kind of prices for luxury items like these.

Take that as you wish...