You certainly do not need the kind of fillrate we have in the X850 PE to fill a screen that is approx 1 million pixels in size 60 times a second even if it applies some sort of anti-aliasing - but you could always do with more horsepower to compute those shaders.
Well, I wouldn't entirely say that. Assuming that there isn't any such mechanism to take an interlaced 1080i frame and render it at 60 fps in 1920x540 alternating fields (which I'd say is a fairly safe assumption), that means you're rendering 1920x1080, or about 2 megapixels at, let's cut back and say, 30 fps. Now if you take that as just meaning 60 MPixels fillrate, that's basically what we call oversimplifying.
First of all, it disregards a little thing called overdraw where you end up eating through fillrate over the same pixels over and over again. Even if we assume something like 10x overdraw (which, btw, is extraordinarily unimaginably incontrovertibly generous), that already puts us at 600+ MPixels/sec. Now then you have things like alpha blended polygons and particles where you really don't WANT to avoid overdraw. Rather, overdraw is actually necessary. And these types of polys will locally have very high fillrate demands. Even now, local clumps of big alpha blended polys eat through framerate so fast, it's not funny.
Then we also have to consider the demands for multipass rendering, which would include things like shadow casting (whether it be maps or volumes), subsurface scattering, and other miscellaneous transgressions of the soul. That easily multiplies our fillrate demands by much more than the number of passes, because the latency between passes is bad enough to drive you to sacrifice goats in a thunderstorm to get those extra few polys down the pipeline.
That said, though, I wouldn't say we'd need something like 5x the fillrate as badly as we'd need 5x the shader power. It's all too often that we get limited by the complexity of vertex or pixel processing and the practical limits are hit. Also, more important than raw pixel fillrate would be texel fillrate, because we're bound to be using up all 8 texture channels on damn near everything for next-gen.