PS3 and Xbox 360 Publisher Revenues

[paawl]

At B3D, we like to analyze the reported NPD figures every month.
Based on those figures, it almost always appears that the Xbox 360
sells many more software units than the PS3. This has led to numerous
prognostications (not necessarily here) of imminent doom for the PS3
as a viable console for third-party publisher support. See, for
example:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2345510,00.asp

And yet, if we look at the publishers' financial reports, revenue
derived from PS3 software sales seems much closer to the Xbox 360's
than NPD numbers would indicate. (In part, this may be due to a much
closer contest between PS3 and Xbox 360 sales outside of the US.)
I've gathered the following breakdown of console revenues for
publishers' in 2008:

Publisher: Percent of total console revenues for 2008 (PS3/Xbox 360)
Activision: 19/28
Electronic Arts: 20/31
Take-Two: 34/39 [1]
Ubisoft: 21/20 [2]

[1] Breakout of console-specific revenue was not available, so these
percentages reflect total revenues.

[2] Revenues for calendar year 2008 were not available, so percentages
reflect revenue from last nine months of 2008.

So, what, if anything, can we conclude from these numbers? That the
PS3 is a significant revenue source for the four largest publishers in
the world? Are there other factors that could endanger the PS3's
third-party support? Or is the installed base of the PS3, though
smaller than that of the Xbox 360, simply too large to ignore?

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Well,

Activision and EA numbers are in-line with userbase (20 million and 30 million for PS3/X360).

Ubisoft - Splinter Cell hasn't shipped yet

Take-Two - GTA franchise was huge on PS2. Most early X360 owners were big Xbox owners that could live without GTA.

 

[betan]

It could help to look at Software releases as well. From memory;
Ubisoft released Haze for PS3, despite low sales it probably helped revenues favoring PS3. Also a game like PoP possibly sold better on PS3 as well.

EA released a few games only on 360, and some others important ones were significantly delayed on PS3.

Take 2 released Bioshock on PS3 in addition to GTA bias on that platform.

Still, I think under equal conditions revenue split still favors PS3 slightly more (especially more so relative to user base), which is indeed not apparent in NA NPD threads.
I suspect that has been the case for some time and can explain how Sony can be back to bullying business.

According to previous NPD, 2009 YTD multiplatform sale split on 360/PS3 was 1.7M/0.9M, pretty consistent with userbase.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

It could help to look at Software releases as well. From memory;
Ubisoft released Haze for PS3, despite low sales it probably helped revenues favoring PS3.

How much did Haze sell? 200k? Unless ubisoft had their worsts year ever, 200k sales worth of revenue would not switch that balance by a significant margin.

 

[paawl]

I wasn't so much trying to elicit a discussion of Xbox 360 and PS3
sales relative to their userbases. (Perhaps my thread title was a bit
misleading.) What I was more interested in is that, in light of these
publishers' reported revenues, is the PS3 in danger of becoming a
Nintendo Gamecube or Original Xbox, where the majority of AAA titles
are those that are produced by the first-party studios, and there is a
relative dearth of strong third-party efforts.

Not to put too fine a point on it (I certainly don't want to preclude
discussion by stating my own conclusions too strongly), but it appears
to me that the PS3 represents too large a revenue stream to be ignored
by third-parties. Despite its high price and lagging sales,
publishers of big-budget HD games can't afford to skip the PS3 or even
to stick it with sloppy ports.

Is there another angle here? Are there other threats to PS3's
viability as a platform for serious third-party efforts?

 

[DJ12]

How much did Haze sell? 200k? Unless ubisoft had their worsts year ever, 200k sales worth of revenue would not switch that balance by a significant margin.

Haven't they also released some 360 exclusives in that time?

Wasn't there a Splinter Cell exclusive?

 

[Asher]

Splinter Cell is not yet out.

I don't think they released any 360 exclusives then, no.

 

[obonicus]

The 360 Naruto games were Ubisoft.

 

[DJ12]

Splinter Cell is not yet out.

I don't think they released any 360 exclusives then, no.

I checked there website when posting it said Q1 2008 for Conviction

 

[betan]

I wasn't so much trying to elicit a discussion of Xbox 360 and PS3
sales relative to their userbases. (Perhaps my thread title was a bit
misleading.) What I was more interested in is that, in light of these
publishers' reported revenues, is the PS3 in danger of becoming a
Nintendo Gamecube or Original Xbox, where the majority of AAA titles
are those that are produced by the first-party studios, and there is a
relative dearth of strong third-party efforts.

3rd parties abandoning PS3 while still releasing software for 360 seems highly unlikely at this point.

 

[betan]

How much did Haze sell? 200k?

Don't know but my "out of my back" guess would be more than that.

Unless ubisoft had their worsts year ever, 200k sales worth of revenue would not switch that balance by a significant margin.

What big release did Ubisoft have?

Anyway, it may be insignificant indeed (especially considering the forgotten release of Naruto 360), but it's still a factor.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

How much did Haze sell? 200k? Unless ubisoft had their worsts year ever, 200k sales worth of revenue would not switch that balance by a significant margin.

Still we're only talking revenue here and not profit. So the number of units sold doesn't tell us a whole lot without knowing what numbers are being considered in coming up with the 21%/20% split.

So a few low selling exlusives on one platform while there are no exlusives on the other platform could easily balance things out with regards to revenue.

Of course, low selling titles could completely ruin potential profit. So while the revenue split may be equaled out by a few low selling exclusives, it's possible that it could swing the profit split the other way.

Interesting numbers for sure. But would be even more interesting with more information. Would love to see such things as...

Per title breakdown as well as proft splits.

Not something I'd ever expect a company to release publicly unfortunately...

Regards,
SB

 

[Carl B]

Not to put too fine a point on it (I certainly don't want to preclude discussion by stating my own conclusions too strongly), but it appears to me that the PS3 represents too large a revenue stream to be ignored by third-parties. Despite its high price and lagging sales, publishers of big-budget HD games can't afford to skip the PS3 or even to stick it with sloppy ports.

If what you're wondering is whether 3rd parties will abandon the PS3, then the answer - sort of following your own reasoning - is that they won't. Porting titles is easier today than yesterday, and the desire to capture consumers to recoup costs certainly no less diminished; not to mention it's about absolutes - the PS3 userbase has grown, so sales to that userbase will yield more sales rather than fewer, all things being equal.

I'd mention also that it's not the sales per se that are lagging, they seem to trend with 360 in terms of install base - rather it's the install base itself that could be considered to be lagging, and why certain 3rd parties have prodded Sony to drop the console price.

All of the above aside though, I can't help but feel like the subject matter of this thread has been discussed many a time before.