Old Predictions

[Johnny Awesome]

My predictions prior to the unveiling of the Wii:

Sony - 53%
MS - 38%
Nintendo - 10%

After the unveiling of the Wii:

Sony - 48%
MS - 33%
Nintendo - 20%

I expected a total of 200 million units sold this generation.

Current Reality:

Nintendo - 48%
MS - 28%
Sony - 24%

Roughly 150 million units have been sold after 5 years, which probably means that there will be more than 200 million units sold this generation.

My MS prediction wasn't terrible, but I clearly didn't expect the Wii to catch on so much and didn't expect Sony to tank like they did. The bottom fell out of the Japanese console market, which didn't help them, and Blu Ray wasn't the big selling factor they had hoped for I guess.

 

[Phil]

To be fair, when I made my predictions, I also estimated that the launch price of the PS3 would be no more than $399 and not the $599 that it ended up being. Despite the late launch date, I think the market share would have turned out a bit different if the price was more in line with what console consumers have come to expect in the 15 years prior to the PS3.

In one thing I was wrong though - I never thought the Wii would enjoy the success that it did and that's even if the PS3 had launched at a much lower price.

 

[Rangers]

I thought both the Wii and DS were completely doomed lol.

That's because we were all looking at it as hardcore gamers. If the market was all hardcore gamers like us, of course we would have been right.

I expected PS3 to beat 360 worldwide eventually, simply because Japan made the numbers just not work worldwide for 360. However Japan became much less of a factor, so now it seems possible for 360 to finish WW ahead of PS3.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I made no predictions because I said such things couldn't be predicted, and now I feel smug.

 

[Rolf N]

Does anyone still have some links to old threads around here, polls and the like?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll
2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2007 Summer Ed.
Prediction Poll: How many PS3's will be sold?
2007 ps3 price prediction poll

Search for "Predictions" in thread titles for a few more, but these are TheChefO's polls.

 

[Rolf N]

2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll
2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll > 2007 Summer Ed.

Wow, that sure swung from one extreme to the other.

Prediction Poll: How many PS3's will be sold?

And again, the least votes came in for the most likely outcomes

Fun times. Didn't we have that "reputation" system still in place then? Good riddance.

 

[NavNucST3]

To be fair, when I made my predictions, I also estimated that the launch price of the PS3 would be no more than $399 and not the $599 that it ended up being. Despite the late launch date, I think the market share would have turned out a bit different if the price was more in line with what console consumers have come to expect in the 15 years prior to the PS3.

In one thing I was wrong though - I never thought the Wii would enjoy the success that it did and that's even if the PS3 had launched at a much lower price.

The pricing is about the only thing I had right regarding the PS3, I posited $599 and $499 but I never expected ANY sub 100k NPD months regardless of price and/or economy.

I also thought that MSFT would actually be able to sell 5M hardware units in Japan...which is still (or will be) shit compared to everyone else; while they have done better than their prior hardware, it is still awful.

I don't believe I made any predictions regarding the Wii but I want to say that I secretly hoped it would do better than the Gamecube :smile: So much for my forecasting skills on that one...

 

[goonergaz]

I always thought MS & Sony would be neck and neck - I wasn't sure if Wii would bomb or boom, I feel quite smug about the Sony/MS prediction TBH - I called the same sort of thing last gen between Ninty & MS (saying MS would edge Ninty) - however I only gave Sony 50% of the market

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Before either console launched I thought the PS3 would wipe the floor with the X360. After the X360 launched I still thought the PS3 would wipe the floor with the X360. After the PS3 launched at 599...that's when I finally started thinking the X360 might actually be able to compete, but I still thought the PS3 would end up doing better.

Regards,
SB

 

[NathansFortune]

Before either console launched I thought the PS3 would wipe the floor with the X360. After the X360 launched I still thought the PS3 would wipe the floor with the X360. After the PS3 launched at 599...that's when I finally started thinking the X360 might actually be able to compete, but I still thought the PS3 would end up doing better.

Regards,
SB

It will. By the end of FYE 31/03/2011 I think Sony will have shipped more PS3s than MS have shipped 360s. There will be many people saying Sony have stuffed channels and their numbers are untrustworthy (look at the latest shipment thread!) but it will come to naught as the PS3 will probably continue to ship more units than the 360 until the end of the generation...

 

[Mize]

The Wii's success is simply amazing.
To sell so many boxes that largely only collect dust after a few weeks is pure genius. Yes, there are people that still play their Wiis, but it's limited to a handful of games and Wii Fit. (yes, I have one)

 

[zed]

Im still sticking with my guess that it will be between wii + ps3 (both over 100million) mainly due to the wiiHD coming out a couple of years before the ps4. Though I didnt think the wiii 'fad' would go on so long

wii 48.10% 73.97mill
xbox360 27.12% 41.7mill
ps3 24.78% 38.11mill

still 2 major things coming out (3 if you count the GT game) xbox360's kinect + ps3's move that can change the whole game

 

[Silent_Buddha]

It will. By the end of FYE 31/03/2011 I think Sony will have shipped more PS3s than MS have shipped 360s. There will be many people saying Sony have stuffed channels and their numbers are untrustworthy (look at the latest shipment thread!) but it will come to naught as the PS3 will probably continue to ship more units than the 360 until the end of the generation...

WW that's certainly true. The X360 being a foreign made console has no chance in Japan. So that's already a large advantage. Add to that the EU still has a lot of anti-MS feelings pretty much giving the PS3 the advantage by default there.

In the US though, I'm still amazed at the turnaround MS has accomplished with the X360. Even after PS3 Slim and before X360 S, the X360 still outsold the PS3 in most months. This I would not have predicted in any way, shape, or form, prior to the PS3 launching at 599 USD.

So Japan, battle between Wii and PS3 (I think Wii will still end up on top for lifetime numbers). EU will be Wii -> PS3 -> X360. US will be Wii -> X360 -> PS3.

I think if not for home advantage in Japan, PS3 wouldn't have a chance to overtake X360 WW. As the X360 lead in NA is much greater than the PS3 lead in the EU.

Regards,
SB

 

[Npl]

I think if not for home advantage in Japan, PS3 wouldn't have a chance to overtake X360 WW. As the X360 lead in NA is much greater than the PS3 lead in the EU.

I think if not for home advantage in USA, X360 would be dead last in all regions by now.

 

[zed]

I think if not for home advantage in USA, X360 would be dead last in all regions by now.

I think here in NZ its actually the top selling console (perhaps the only country in the world)
Thats MS's problem it sells in english speaking countries, US,canada,UK,oz,nz but the rest of the world it doesnt do so well + its nothing to do with an anti US bias. Look at apple, ford(yes ok not so good the last few years ) or any number of US companies. The problem is the software library is not as diverse, they tried to succeed in japan this time by going after a handfull of high profile titles. At the time I said this was the wrong strategy, the correct strategy was like I said a blitzkrieg of hundreds of diverse titles cause you're not gonna predict whats gonna be a hit.

 

[TheChefO]

The problem is the software library is not as diverse, they tried to succeed in japan this time by going after a handfull of high profile titles. At the time I said this was the wrong strategy, the correct strategy was like I said a blitzkrieg of hundreds of diverse titles cause you're not gonna predict whats gonna be a hit.

While true you can't predict a huge hit, MS is supporting diverse games via Arcade and even more so with XNA games. I'd say more so than any other company.

Also, at the time, Japan was dominated by two main franchises, FF and DQ. Getting either one would pull others into the fray. I think it falls back onto your initial debunk call. Japanese developers for the most part are looking to support their homeland Cos (N, Sony). Not to say they have done nothing on MS, but it is a rare case indeed to see them doing anything special to encourage Japanese to buy x360 over wii or ps3.


BTW, it was fun calling this gen. or at least calling the ps3 xb360 part of it.

So many forum dwellers here were so sure ps3 would dominate regardless of price, loss of game exclusivity, complexity, timing, and all those factors combined.

I called Sony fools for even attempting to do something as foolish as they did. Lucky for them, MS had a issue themselves with RRoD. Otherwise we'd be seeing much lower prices on xb360 and this thing would have been over long ago.

Kudos to the Sony fans for keeping ps3 relevant.

Hopefully we will see another strong battle next gen.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Kudos to the Sony fans for keeping ps3 relevant.

Almost all this 'battling' occurs outside the realm of internet fandom. It was Sony who kept PS3 relevant by rushing desperately to recover their lost footing. They managed to create a product and set of services and market it with their 'only does everything' campaign to generate quite remarkable interest considering the price - whatever noises the fans made on the intarwebs about PS3 had little to do with it.

Now the sides are drawn up armed with their motion interfaces and games for the next great battle. Fans can grumble or cheer all they like about lag and accuracies and casual/hardcore games, but once again it'll be a battle of products, pricings, and marketing campaigns, and words will count for squat.

 

[zed]

MS is supporting diverse games via Arcade and even more so with XNA games. I'd say more so than any other company.

sony has PSN or something, apparently many developers have said they (sony) are more relaxed with restriction as to what comes to PSN than MS's similar offering

BTW, it was fun calling this gen.

mate it aint over until the fat lady sings, theres still years left
theyve sold what ~150millon consoles, they will sell ~300million consoles this gen

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Actually I did predict some things right hehe. Don't have a english link as its a post on a dutch forum I made in 2005 with how I thought thinks would work out.

I predicted MS would be #1, except in Japan. Nintendo would be #1 there. So I got that right. I also thought sony would come in last and I think worldwide sony is still sold the least so got that right too untill now. I also predicted the ps3 would be too expensive and too hard to develop for so I got that right too seeing how sales sucked at release and I seeing how most MP games perform worse on the ps3.

I didn't expect these numbers though. I thought the x360 and wii would be relative close and the ps3 to be behind a fair bit but not anything dramatic.

I guess the ones really losing out are developers. So many put all their eggs in the HD basket and lots of them went bust because of it. Instead of spending 10m on creating at best mediocore HD games they should have made AAA wii games for the same budget and actually earn a buck.