If we look at the time it took for GM204’s customer sample to tape out and appear on shelves, we will see that this timeframe has already passed for the GM200. Which leads us to two very obvious conclusions:
1) either the GM200 GPU is landing very soon, and by soon I mean within this month or the next, or 2) Nvidia is deliberately holding the GM200 chip back until AMD comes up with any competition or 970/980 sales dry up.
Some of you might remember that Nvidia has already
accidentally leaked out the theoretical and expected raw performance efficiency of the GM200 chip which is 25 GFlops per Watt. While they have given the performance efficiency of the GK110 chip (12 GFlops) , they did not give the efficiency of the GM204 chip. No worries though, we can approximate it ourselves. The GM200 is approximately 208.33% faster than the GK110 based on these numbers. Now this is where it gets tricky. The GM204 is locked at 1/32 DP so we cant really measure efficiency (it requires DP numbers). We can however estimate the relative performance per watt by measuring pure single precision GFlops of the GK110 and the GM204.
The GK110 is roughly 550mm^2 and the limit of TSMC is at roughly 600mm^2. So can the GM200 exist on a 28nm Node? Absolutely, yes. Will it? Well, the consumer samples taped out a long time back, and they are sure as hell not on 16nm FinFET. Recent reports seemed to indicate that TSMC has canceled plans for 20nm and while AMD can theoretically revert to Global Foundries for 20nm GPUs, Nvidia cannot. But those reports could very easily be inaccurate. It is also interesting to note that our calculation coincides easily with t
he latest rumor on Big Daddy Maxwell we received a while back. Needless to say that these GPUs could be ported to 16nm FinFET once its ready, since we have already heard rumblings about the same. Well, there you go folks, everything of interest that happened at the earnings call
.