NVIDIA GF100 & Friends speculation

Jon Peddie estimates that over 400k GF100 chips have been shipped as Geforce/Tesla products.

Link

I was just about to post that, heh. I wonder, will this put to death the notion that only 10K Fermis exist period? At least, I hope it does on this board... It was simply illogical in the first place...
 
“My estimate is Nvidia has shipped over 400 thousand [Fermi processors] as Tesla and Gefore units.
So, GPUs shipped by nVidia, not cards sold by AIBs. GTX46x GPUs can be included in this number.
 
Also, the quote says "My estimate (...)", so it could be less (although I doubt Jon Peddie would pull such a number out of thin air, it's called JP Research and not Estimate afterall).
 
I was just about to post that, heh. I wonder, will this put to death the notion that only 10K Fermis exist period? At least, I hope it does on this board... It was simply illogical in the first place...
That could have been two misinterpretations of less than 10k cards at launch and less than 10k hotlots.
 
That could have been two misinterpretations of less than 10k cards at launch and less than 10k hotlots.

Perhaps that's it. Hmm, I recall having read some statements related to this on a certain vaguely tech-related blog:
The 480 shader, 1400MHz cards are barely manufacturable. If you don't already have one ordered by now, it is likely too late to get one since quantities are going to be absurdly limited. As things stand, the 9,000 risk wafers seem to have produced less than 10,000 GTX480s and about twice that many GTX470s if the rumored release numbers are to be believed. That would put yields of the new lower spec GTX480 at well under the two percent Nvidia saw last fall.

f you are queued up for the second batch, don't expect there to be one. If Nvidia is losing money on each board it sells, trying to make it up in volume is not a sane way to proceed. Expect Nvidia to once again pretend that the cards are not EOL'd and trickle the stock it puts aside out over the next few months. If this sounds eerily familiar, that is because Nvidia is doing the exact same thing with the GTX285. It is keeping up appearances while its partners get no stock and suffer the financial consequences.

So.. I guess that'd be 30.000 GTX480s and 470s, and between 170k and 370k GTX46x then huh
 
Do people still put credence in this ancient rumor? Look, if it had only been 10k hot lots, the supply of GF100's would have run out long ago. Instead, availability is, if anything, getting better, which is exactly what we expect from a normal ramp-up of production. If the yields were crap and nVidia couldn't make money off of the parts, there's no way in hell they would produce more of them. And yet, when I look at Newegg, I see ten GTX 480 producs, nine of which are in stock:
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...793413 1067956828&name=GeForce GTX 480 (Fermi)
 
So.. I guess that'd be 30.000 GTX480s and 470s, and between 170k and 370k GTX46x then huh
If NVidia can't sell any GF100s with 4 fully-active GPCs (i.e. yield on 512 ALU GF100's is ~0) there's prolly quite a steep yield curve.
 
I have a feeling that they're saving the handful of chips that work with all 512 cores active for a GTX 480 Ultra model or something.:cool:
 
Do people still put credence in this ancient rumor?

I hope not.

Look, if it had only been 10k hot lots, the supply of GF100's would have run out long ago. Instead, availability is, if anything, getting better, which is exactly what we expect from a normal ramp-up of production. If the yields were crap and nVidia couldn't make money off of the parts, there's no way in hell they would produce more of them. And yet, when I look at Newegg, I see ten GTX 480 producs, nine of which are in stock:
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...793413 1067956828&name=GeForce GTX 480 (Fermi)

Crap there goes my hope that my GTX 480 was gonna be a collector's item ;)
 
Do people still put credence in this ancient rumor? Look, if it had only been 10k hot lots, the supply of GF100's would have run out long ago.
10k waffers ~ about 1 million of GPUs.
Peddie mentioned 400k GPUs shipped.

There are just two theories possible:

1. 400k GPUs were made out of the 10k waffers
2. 400k GPUs were made not only out of the 10k waffers

The first statement would indicate, that total yields are at least 40% (40% of 1 million = 400k GPUs). E.g. 6% for GTX480, 12% for GTX470 and 22% for GTX465 = 40% total = 400k GPUs. It means, that yields are (at least) quite acceptable, but the old risc waffers are still in use (contrary to your statement)

The second statement: risc waffers ran dry long time ago. It would mean, that risc waffers weren't enough to provide 400k working GPUs = yields are much worse then nVidia admits.

It is not possible to believe, that nVidia shipped 400k working GPUs and risc waffers ran dry long time ago and yields are good.

These statements contradict each other.
 
How could the GTX 465 be counted, considering they aren't sold yet?
If GPUs are being shipped to vendors, nvidia and AMD counts them as "shipped". Sometimes their marketing counts them even as sold (as long as they leave fabs, regardless if they are on the shelves or not).
 
After that I plan to upgrade my rig like this:
i7 920 -> i7 980X
GTX285 -> GTX480
2x80GB RAID 0 -> X25-M SSD
Air cooling -> water cooling.

Performance being guideline here, not fluffy none-enthusiast concerns :devilish:
If you want performance, why you pick single GTX480? Its slower than 5970, and as you say performance is everything ;)
 
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