NVIDIA GeForce RTX 50-series Blackwell Availability

[pcchen]

Because I don’t have a point refuting this? I’m saying you can’t use traditional supply demand curves for products in a market that isn’t perfectly competitive.

I have no idea if Nvidia is manipulating supply or whatever, that said, a monopolist can set prices how they want precisely because they control supply for all equities products on the market. If Nvidia didn’t control supply for high end GPUs they would be an ineffective price setter as they’d just get undercut. So we are essentially saying the same thing.

Ok, because you replied to the post talking about this conspiracy theory, so I assumed that you were talking about it.
However, even in a not perfectly competitive market, supply and demand curve still matters, it's just not as simple. For example, if I am the only bread maker in town, and I decided to jack up the prices, people will choose to buy say pizza instead. There are very few markets where people only have one option.

 

[trinibwoy]

Correct, I am talking about the former, not the latter. The semiconductor market is obviously free as it’s not govt controlled or regulated, beyond things like tariffs (which do distort the market but we don’t have say rent control but for GPUs).

Ok then I’m not sure you’re discussing the same thing as everyone else here. GPUs are clearly far from a perfectly competitive market for several reasons (high barrier to entry, transportation costs, marketing, network effects etc). I don’t think it’s even worth discussing.

However it’s clearly a free market as there are no forces compelling someone to purchase a 5090, 5080 or any GPU. You don’t even have to be a PC gamer if you want to game.

 

[Cappuccino]

Ok, because you replied to the post talking about this conspiracy theory, so I assumed that you were talking about it.
However, even in a not perfectly competitive market, supply and demand curve still matters, it's just not as simple. For example, if I am the only bread maker in town, and I decided to jack up the prices, people will choose to buy say pizza instead. There are very few markets where people only have one option.

Well first, it isn’t a conspiracy theory, it’s pretty much a fact that Nvidia controls consumer GPU supply. Whether or not they are holding back GPUs to raise prices or drive hype is another thing, tbh I don’t find it that implausible.

Yes, they call this elasticity of the demand curve. That said, there aren’t many substitutes for a GPU. If one needs a new GPU there are remarkably few options, the only substitute is just not buying one at all lol.

Ok then I’m not sure you’re discussing the same thing as everyone else here. GPUs are clearly far from a perfectly competitive market for several reasons (high barrier to entry, transportation costs, marketing, network effects etc). I don’t think it’s even worth discussing.

However it’s clearly a free market as there are no forces compelling someone to purchase a 5090, 5080 or any GPU. You don’t even have to be a PC gamer if you want to game.

I was responding to a comment about supply and demand curves, and how you cannot just simply use supply and demand to talk about price equilibrium in a monopoly.

I’m not sure why everyone is acting like supply restrictions are a conspiracy theory, Nvidia and AMD do this all the time. They operate in a market with almost no competition, they would be dumb not to adjust/manipulate/whatever supply to keep prices where they want. They do this at the end of generations to clear off store shelves for the new stuff.

 

[DegustatoR]

Well first, it isn’t a conspiracy theory, it’s pretty much a fact that Nvidia controls consumer GPU supply. Whether or not they are holding back GPUs to raise prices or drive hype is another thing, tbh I don’t find it that implausible.

What does Nvidia gets from "holding back" on selling their products - which they sell at their MSRPs regardless of how much a guy on Ebay asks for a 5090?

 

[Cappuccino]

What does Nvidia gets from "holding back" on selling their products - which they sell at their MSRPs regardless of how much a guy on Ebay asks for a 5090?

Besides FEs Nvidia doesn’t actually sell GPUs to consumers, it’s entirely possible that they are selling chips to AIBs for more than we think and the arrangement was low supply to start so AIBs can raise prices for early buyers. It isn’t just eBay raising prices. Frankly we know very little about the relationship Nvidia has with their AIBs.

Could also just be a marketing thing, smooth launches aren’t as exciting as standing in line at MC waiting for a drop. I am sure that drove a ton of demand back in the Ampere days.

I personally know people building PCs right now and the supply situation across the board is causing them to consider paying a lot more than they should for these products, it’s honestly not a bad way to market lol.

 

[pcchen]

Besides FEs Nvidia doesn’t actually sell GPUs to consumers, it’s entirely possible that they are selling chips to AIBs for more than we think and the arrangement was low supply to start so AIBs can raise prices for early buyers. It isn’t just eBay raising prices. Frankly we know very little about the relationship Nvidia has with their AIBs.

Could also just be a marketing thing, smooth launches aren’t as exciting as standing in line at MC waiting for a drop. I am sure that drove a ton of demand back in the Ampere days.

Why do that? If they want to do that, just tell AIBs to use a higher MSRP. There's no point in artificially limiting the supply to achieve that. Actually, it's counter productive, because it reduces the overall profit.
Which one makes more money: setting 5090's MSRP at US$3,000 and selling 100K of them, or setting 5090's MSRP at US$1,600 and selling 10K of them to "jack up the prices"? The answer should be obvious.

 

[trinibwoy]

I was responding to a comment about supply and demand curves, and how you cannot just simply use supply and demand to talk about price equilibrium in a monopoly.

If I have a monopoly on vibranium and I choose to only mine 10 pounds of vibranium a month the equilibrium price is the price at which I can sell all 10 pounds every month. That’s a free market in vibranium.

I’m not sure why everyone is acting like supply restrictions are a conspiracy theory, Nvidia and AMD do this all the time. They operate in a market with almost no competition, they would be dumb not to adjust/manipulate/whatever supply to keep prices where they want. They do this at the end of generations to clear off store shelves for the new stuff.

Supply management for something like a GPU isn’t nefarious. It’s part of the normal running of a business. Nvidia or AMD have only one obligation which is to sell as many GPUs as possible at a high a price as possible to maximize profit. They have no other incentive.

However the ultimate power rests with buyers because if they raise prices too much we can collectively let the product rot on shelves. When they’re still flying off shelves at inflated prices it basically means the prices are still too low relative to the available supply. Does this low supply + high price maximize profit for Nvidia and AIBs and are they doing it intentionally? My guess is no but there’s no way for us to know since we don’t have the numbers.

 

[DegustatoR]

Besides FEs

Which are sold at MSRPs so yes, besides them.

it’s entirely possible that they are selling chips to AIBs for more than we think and the arrangement was low supply to start so AIBs can raise prices for early buyers

Why? Are MSRPs unsustainable? If yes then how exactly do you expect cards to cost even less? Also why set unsustainable MSRPs at all?

It isn’t just eBay raising prices.

Yes, it's the whole retail. Which brings nothing for Nvidia and is in fact hurting them since sales are decreasing.

Could also just be a marketing thing, smooth launches aren’t as exciting as standing in line at MC waiting for a drop. I am sure that drove a ton of demand back in the Ampere days.

Standing in line drives demand for you?
Any sane person would spend their money on something else which is easier to get. Your idea of how marketing works is really weird.

 

[iroboto]

my LCS (Canada Computers Toronto Kennedy) just received 6. I had to travel 30 minutes to get there, and I saw at the register the last remaining guy walking out with it. I was devastated, missed it by 1 minute. But it's the first time I've seen stock values in greater than 1, this was bigger than the launch day, which only had 1-2 GPUS per store. So I think stock is coming now.

 

[Cappuccino]

Why? Are MSRPs unsustainable? If yes then how exactly do you expect cards to cost even less? Also why set unsustainable MSRPs at all?

Not unsustainable necessarily but perhaps this is Nvidia restricting supply so AIBs can raise prices and make more money. AIB margins aren’t usually very good so I could see an arrangement like this being set up.

Yes, it's the whole retail. Which brings nothing for Nvidia and is in fact hurting them since sales are decreasing.

Sales decreasing doesn’t hurt Nvidia if they make more money per sale.

I doubt the bulk of Nvidia’s money in consumer GPUs is made on FEs, it’s more likely from selling chips to AIBs since those end up being the bulk of cards sold. So since we don’t know what Nvidia is selling dies to AIBs for we can’t really make a conclusion here, for all we know this supply constraint was planned and they’ve been selling AIBs marked up dies, hence why the AIB MSRPs are so high.

Standing in line drives demand for you?
Any sane person would spend their money on something else which is easier to get. Your idea of how marketing works is really weird.

Uh yeah? Don’t you remember those midnight launches people used to line up for back when physical games were the norm?

Supply constraints will push consumers into buying things for more than they would usually, as they don’t want to risk ending up with nothing. I know a few people in this boat, they’d buy any overpriced AIB card because if they don’t jump on it they will end up with a PC without a graphics card at all.

If they want to do that, just tell AIBs to use a higher MSRP.

All AIBs aren’t obliged to listen, if supply is unconstrained you’d have AIBs undercutting each other.

If I have a monopoly on vibranium and I choose to only mine 10 pounds of vibranium a month the equilibrium price is the price at which I can sell all 10 pounds every month. That’s a free market in vibranium.

But it’s not perfectly competitive. You can set the price at whatever you want, nobody is going to compete with you on price.

Supply management for something like a GPU isn’t nefarious. It’s part of the normal running of a business. Nvidia or AMD have only one obligation which is to sell as many GPUs as possible at a high a price as possible to maximize profit. They have no other incentive

I never said it was nefarious? I’m just saying it’s obvious they are doing it. This is a natural part of a duopoly, it would be strange if there wasn’t supply management in play.

 

[pcchen]

All AIBs aren’t obliged to listen, if supply is unconstrained you’d have AIBs undercutting each other.

Funny you'd say that, because I don't see that happening on 4090 or 4080, even years after their releases.
You can't have it both ways really. You can't just claim that AIB's margins are low (which is very likely to be true) and at the same time they can undercutting each other? How is that possible if their margin is like single digit.

 

[DegustatoR]

Not unsustainable necessarily but perhaps this is Nvidia restricting supply so AIBs can raise prices and make more money. AIB margins aren’t usually very good so I could see an arrangement like this being set up.

Why would Nvidia need to restrict supply to achieve that? They can just set higher MSRPs. Also AIBs have custom models which are considerably more expensive - why not just sell those? You're not getting any money if you're not selling any volume.

Sales decreasing doesn’t hurt Nvidia if they make more money per sale.

They don't. They sell chips at the level of MSRPs they have set.

 

[iroboto]

my LCS (Canada Computers Toronto Kennedy) just received 6. I had to travel 30 minutes to get there, and I saw at the register the last remaining guy walking out with it. I was devastated, missed it by 1 minute. But it's the first time I've seen stock values in greater than 1, this was bigger than the launch day, which only had 1-2 GPUS per store. So I think stock is coming now.

The same franchise just pinged 2 more cards further away. I feel like they just got their stock. Just waiting for the one beside my house to ping. That way I actually get a chance.

 

[trinibwoy]

The same franchise just pinged 2 more cards further away. I feel like they just got their stock. Just waiting for the one beside my house to ping. That way I actually get a chance.

How are you tracking the stock updates?

 

[DegustatoR]

The same franchise just pinged 2 more cards further away. I feel like they just got their stock. Just waiting for the one beside my house to ping. That way I actually get a chance.

It's like two weeks have passed since launch and the supply is beginning to improve. Who could've thought that it will be like this? It only happens at literally every GPU launch.
With the end of Chinese NY and the general ramp of production 5080 supply should be completely fine by end of March at worst I'd say.
5090 is an unknown for now, especially for the US and Canada where 4090 had supply issues over the majority of the previous year.

 

[iroboto]

How are you tracking the stock updates?

Ctrl+R on multiple tabs.
They made it so that it's pickup only. You can see the stock of all their stores all at once. But no purchasing online. It's traditional FCFS, so it removes the scalpers fairly well.

Canadacomputers, 6 more Gigabyte just showed up in the Waterloo store 10 minutes ago. That's a total of 14 today, the most I've ever seen.

 

[iroboto]

It's like two weeks have passed since launch and the supply is beginning to improve. Who could've thought that it will be like this? It only happens at literally every GPU launch.
With the end of Chinese NY and the general ramp of production 5080 supply should be completely fine by end of March at worst I'd say.
5090 is an unknown for now, especially for the US and Canada where 4090 had supply issues over the majority of the previous year.

Yea that's an interesting one, I haven't seen any 5090s ping yet. And I don't expect many AIB 5090s to sell. Gigabyte is the only one selling it at FE prices ($2899 CAD). Everyone else is much higher (3100-4000)

 

[trinibwoy]

But it’s not perfectly competitive. You can set the price at whatever you want, nobody is going to compete with you on price.

Yep, exactly. The only price control we have is refusing to buy.

 

[Remij]

Did someone actually ask how Nvidia benefits from restricting their sales and paper launching?

-They limit the production of GPUs and paper launch at an MSRP
-First batch sells out instantly
-Then they wait for partners to raise their price due to the scarcity and improve their "shitty" margins
-Suddenly they're the only vendor who is selling cards at MSRP or anywhere close
-Their cards are then guaranteed to sell first, and they then control exactly how many GPUs partners get vs what they get.

The amount of money over MSRP that idiots are willing to pay means that Nvidia sells to the "cheap skates" while the partners improve their margins with the high rollers.

It's a complete joke... multiple thousands of $$$s for a GPU.

 

[iroboto]

Did someone actually ask how Nvidia benefits from restricting their sales and paper launching?

-They limit the production of GPUs and paper launch at an MSRP
-First batch sells out instantly
-Then they wait for partners to raise their price due to the scarcity and improve their "shitty" margins
-Suddenly they're the only vendor who is selling cards at MSRP or anywhere close
-Their cards are then guaranteed to sell first, and they then control exactly how many GPUs partners get vs what they get.

The amount of money over MSRP that idiots are willing to pay means that Nvidia sells to the "cheap skates" while the partners improve their margins with the high rollers.

It's a complete joke... multiple thousands of $$$s for a GPU.

it doesn't work like that.
Chips are sold at MSRP pricing. They have to provide X amount to their partners.
The partners have to create the boards, testing, etc.
Everyone has to make margin all the way down to the retailer. So there is an upper limit on what Nvidia will do. With more demand, that just means the price will take longer to come down. But the price points can't go up because that will squeeze the margin on their partners, and squeeze it further on the retailer, and they don't like that.

The first to market gets all the sales. So there's incentive for these guys to push. Nvidia wouldn't hold them up with chips. They have incentive to get as much income in as soon as possible otherwise their stock will start dropping dramatically.