I don't believe the war will be won over the top end battle, but in the performance mid-range battle. Just matching 5970 with Fermi whilst being larger/more expensive to produce for the top end, low-volume SKU is not a viable approach to the whole market. It's especially the case if AMD have a refresh product ready to beat Fermi over the head.
I think that's why Nvidia is looking to at HPC as a new market to skirt that fight, and is gambling on looking further down the line to a future of more programmable GPUs.
Not sure I follow...the chip in the GTX 380 won't be more expensive than the two chips in the HD 5970. Far from it. If it manages to be close enough in performance, NVIDIA can keep the price of the GTX 380 close enough to the HD 5970 and then beating it, with a more cost effective dual GPU part.
Also, what kind of refresh can AMD release that isn't like what the HD 4890 was in regards to the HD 4870 ? It was barely 10% faster in most instances.
Maybe a HD 5950 (two HD 5850 on a PCB), but that's still more expensive than a single GTX 380 chip.