DegustatoR
Legend
Guys... It's been one day after Blackwell's launch...
NVIDIA discussion [2025]
- Thread starter SlmDnk
- Start date
I honestly don't understand how gamers buy things. The only thing that matters is how the products I can buy relate to the one I have. I look at the product, I see how much better it is than the one I own, and then I figure out if the price is in my budget, or worth paying. How that price compares historically doesn't enter the picture. The only price comparison that matters is to competing products. So what's in the market right now, either used or new. It's very unemotional. If I don't think it's worth it, I don't buy it.
I just bought a humidifier. I looked up reviews, I saw what was in my price range and what seemed good and bought one. If any of the reviewers had started breaking down historical pricing for humidifiers I can no longer buy, I would have been incredibly confused. Historical pricing is interesting if you're doing some kind of industry analysis, but as a consumer of products it really has no meaning at all. It's just what I have vs what I can actually buy.
I just bought a humidifier. I looked up reviews, I saw what was in my price range and what seemed good and bought one. If any of the reviewers had started breaking down historical pricing for humidifiers I can no longer buy, I would have been incredibly confused. Historical pricing is interesting if you're doing some kind of industry analysis, but as a consumer of products it really has no meaning at all. It's just what I have vs what I can actually buy.
It's completely normal for brand new cards to be unavailable. The term "paper launch" has been around as long as I can remember. My concern is that in the last few years there have been various reasons that even GPUs that have been out for 12+ months become unavailable. Crypto, AI, international trade restrictions etc. These reasons never have much to do with how gamers value the cards
. The lower end cards generally have been more resistance to this BS, though certainly not immune.DegustatoR
Legend
There are no reasons for 50 series to be in shorter supply than 40 series was. 5090 maybe, is a bigger die and 32GBs may be attractive for some AI applications. Others though? They will be in full and ample supply in a month or two. Series lifecycle isn't it's launch day.It's completely normal for brand new cards to be unavailable. The term "paper launch" has been around as long as I can remember. My concern is that in the last few years there have been various reasons that even GPUs that have been out for 12+ months become unavailable. Crypto, AI, international trade restrictions etc. These reasons never have much to do with how gamers value the cards
There was a report recently about Nvidia grabbing more CoWoS capacity. They may have decided to allocate more 4N wafers to datacenter as a result.
The fact that everyone uses TSMC is a big problem. Everyone is fighting for capacity. It may actually be good for gpus to slow down and stay off the latest nodes. Gamers will be disappointed, but high supply would reduce scalping and stuff. Let the phones and the big ai products have the latest nodes and keep the gaming gpus a few nodes behind.
Edit: They're now saying that the 7900XTX has to be $300 cheaper than the unimpressive 5080 to be worth selling ... I guess there just aren't any good products right now.
DegustatoR
Legend
Would that be the same wafers which AMD freed up after the bad sales of MI350?
Nvidia has lots of capacity on N4 and I honestly doubt that it's any issue for consumer GPU production. DC parts are highly likely to still be limited by both demand and packaging way more than they are by wafers.
arandomguy
Veteran
It's completely normal for brand new cards to be unavailable. The term "paper launch" has been around as long as I can remember. My concern is that in the last few years there have been various reasons that even GPUs that have been out for 12+ months become unavailable. Crypto, AI, international trade restrictions etc. These reasons never have much to do with how gamers value the cards
From the consumer side though I think there a real concern in terms of what market pricing will end up being for these GPUs due to broader trade uncertainties. By the time the later 5xxx release and have ample supply for example are they going to end up being significantly more expensive?
In terms of the larger picture I do feel that ever since 2020 a problem the GPU market has faced is there been a lot of volatility due to various environmental factors. Which by extension is in part causing issues in terms of consumer sentiment and confidence.
GPUs have essentially been avoiding the latest node for some time now.
The initial demand/supply issue isn't really resolvable unless you effectively artificially delay purchasing availability and just build up a ton of stock.
DegustatoR
Legend
In the US sure. It's not the whole world though. And if people are worried about that then they can just buy the 40 series now - this is available and there aren't much reasons to not buy them considering the perf/price changes of 50 series.
arandomguy
Veteran
I feel you're oversimplifying this both in terms of the possible economic picture and consumer sentiment.
RTX 40 is old news in the consumers eyes, we can argue how much 50 series is but it's better. 40 series cards, as Nvidia unlike AMD's retail situation, have not received appreciable discounts now they are effectively EOL. If anything with how Nvidia handles inventory and the retail channel prices are somewhat up or if available at all. I'm in Canada so I'll give a more concrete examples. Any available RTX 4080 and 4080 Super stock is considerably higher priced compared to later last year and more than the RTX 5080 is currently listed for.
As for the broader economic picture trade actions by the US are not isolated to itself, the US simply too influential in terms of the world economy. And this isn't just isolated to the US either. Look at how US/China trade actions affected RTX 4090 pricing and availability worldwide as an example.
I'll just remain specific here but in terms of Canada we're going to face multiple issues that might impact GPU prices - 1) CAD valuation 2) Canada/US trade actions 3)US trade actions against China/SE Asia (this is due to supply chain integration and market size).
If the price of humidifiers was $1000 and prices went up 50% over a few years I bet most would be turned off from buying one unless they really needed one.
Humidifiers aren’t cyclical purchases and haven’t changed in decades. GPUs are more like TVs, they improve every year and when they stop improving (and get pricier) people will be sensitive to that.
Okay, but what does any of that have to do with historical pricing? I needed a humidifier. My apartment was around 25-30% relative humidity in winter. I found one for about $150 CAD (I think) that did everything I wanted it to do and is quiet. If it was $1000 CAD, I wouldn't buy it. What do I care if humidifers were cheaper or more expensive five or ten years ago? I'm buying now. It's the utility vs the price. That's it.
Edit: I imagine that five years from now humidifier tech will be largely the same, and there will be little reason to "upgrade" at any price. But that's basically the same math I would use for a gpu - What's do I have? What's available that fits in my budget? Is it worth buying? That's it.
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Are 40 series available outside of US? Everything above the 4060Ti is gone from Newegg (sold by Newegg) in the US. 4080+ has been gone for a couple months IIRC.
I don’t know the reasons but presumably if CoWoS opens up Nvidia needs more 4N wafers to utilize the extra capacity.
In Germany the 4070 TI Super is the fatest nVidia GPU someone can actually buy. Everything else is out of stock.
We actually don't know (or at least I haven't seen any info) on the supply of GDDR7. As far as I know this is the first product to utilize GDDR7 and that maybe supply constrained.
arandomguy
Veteran
Supply isn't really there in the US either from the wind down of the 40 series. If you just glance at Pcpartpicker keep in mind that site doesn't accurately take inventory from some of the stores it crawls, and this includes Amazon. I think 4070ti and above SKUs left in the US that you can actually purchase are all heavily marked up.
It's already been reported that Nvidia started the wind down of the 40 series as the 50 series launches.
If you look at it historically Nvidia has had much tighter DIY retail channel management, especially for higher end SKUs. This is not like AMD in which the existing line gets large street prices cuts, especially after the newer series gets announced/released.
arandomguy
Veteran
I'm just going to speculate but I don't think it's likely supply will be an issue per say barring any further market shocks.
They've actually winded down 40 series distribution in the channel rather aggressively (try looking at what availability and pricing is for 40 series SKUs that currently overlap with 50 series). I don't think they would have done that if they predicted supply constraints especailly from things like GDDR7, otherwise they would have nothing to sell.
DavidGraham
Veteran
OpenAI stated they plan to go full steam ahead with project Stargate, they emphasized the more compute they have, the better the models will become, as they are scaling models on two dimensions: larger pre-trains and more RL/strawberry .. both require massive amounts of compute. AI Agents also require vast amounts of compute. GB200 products remain the highest performing products on the market to serve those needs.
In the meantime, Eaton (which is a power management company) stated that data centers build rates are increasing in 2025 by 30% vs 2024, and that "any notion that this market will slow down is simply not consistent with any of the data that we're seeing".
In the meantime, Eaton (which is a power management company) stated that data centers build rates are increasing in 2025 by 30% vs 2024, and that "any notion that this market will slow down is simply not consistent with any of the data that we're seeing".
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packaging is still the main limitation today, otherwise we will have a very different GB202
and yes, NVDA took the CoWoS capacity left by AMD.
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