NV40 failure, Nvidia out of graphics?

[ByteMe]

I was wondering if the NV40 is anything like the NV30 was, will Nvidia drop out of the graphics market? Maybe sell their IP to another company, or will they push on for another generation?


My guess is if the NV40 is a flop, they will exit the graphics market. If the NV40 does just "average" or better, they will stay for another generation.

 

[Xmas]

Certainly not.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Define the scope of the failure. It would have to be a massive failure (ie their manufacturing partners refuse to produce it) in order for them to drop out.

 

[cthellis42]

Hardly. All things considered, few really note the "failure" of this generation either. And considering the companies have a lot more cash and other methods of support, I don't see nVidia or ATi or analling themselves unless they have two full generations with ABSOLUTELY horrible performance which can't even be compensated for by other means. Erosions will likely be slow, and one REALLY pull one out if the company decides fighting over X particular market just isn't worth spending the resources for the low margins any more.

 

[MrBond]

If nvidia fails at the nv40 (like someone else said, depends on how bad), you'll probably just see more dirty tricks more than anything. I doubt they'll go out of business anytime soon. Probably the most that would happen is you'll see them relegated to the backseat of the graphics business, with ATI as the driver.

Besides, now that nforce has taken off, you'll see them milking that for all it's worth. They even named one of their new mediaq chips "nforce3 go"

 

[PaulS]

No is the answer you're looking for. And, as someone else noted - The NV3x can't really be called a disaster or a flop.

Now, the NV40 and NV50 being a flop? That's a different story, and I suspect nVidia would pull back considerably if that was the case. I doubt they'd sell their IP though, even in that case.

 

[T2k]

And, as someone else noted - The NV3x can't really be called a disaster or a flop.

Actually, you're right... it's an understatement... rather should be called for 'nightmare' or something similar.

 

[3dilettante]

While the nv30 core was short lived, the value versions seem to have sold rather well, despite the shortcomings of their base architecture.

 

[ByteMe]

Does anyone have some money figures that show if the nv30 made any money?

 

[digitalwanderer]

Does anyone have some money figures that show if the nv30 made any money?

I really don't think it did and I think everyone who is claiming the nV3x is not a failure is very much wrong and in denial. (BTW-Hi BM! Sorry ya got banned at EB, they're protective of me. )

 

[Xmas]

NV30 was a flop, not the entire NV3x family. NV31 and especially NV34 are rather successful.

 

[PaulS]

The NV3x architecture is pretty good with DX8 titles, and with the "optimisations" it can muddle through on DX9 apps. It's hardly as if it's crawling along at 1fps in every single application ever, and is blowing up people's computers.

Saying it's a "disaster" is flat out lying. Is it as good as the ATi offerings? Clearly not, but that doesn't mean it's failure.

 

[digitalwanderer]

Saying it's a "disaster" is flat out lying. Is it as good as the ATi offerings? Clearly not, but that doesn't mean it's failure.

I humbly beg to differ. I feel the damage that the nV3x did to nVidia, or rather the damage that nVidia did to themselves in their questionable promotion of the nV3x series, have had and will have a huge negative impact on nVidia that they will be a long time recovering from.

 

[nonamer]

Saying it's a "disaster" is flat out lying. Is it as good as the ATi offerings? Clearly not, but that doesn't mean it's failure.

I humbly beg to differ. I feel the damage that the nV3x did to nVidia, or rather the damage that nVidia did to themselves in their questionable promotion of the nV3x series, have had and will have a huge negative impact on nVidia that they will be a long time recovering from.

In case you haven't figured, the NV3x series is outselling the R3x0 series unit-wise, last time I checked.

 

[Rodéric]

I wouldn't mind nVidia leaving the 3D market, provided PowerVR takes its place

 

[Nite_Hawk]

Saying it's a "disaster" is flat out lying. Is it as good as the ATi offerings? Clearly not, but that doesn't mean it's failure.

I humbly beg to differ. I feel the damage that the nV3x did to nVidia, or rather the damage that nVidia did to themselves in their questionable promotion of the nV3x series, have had and will have a huge negative impact on nVidia that they will be a long time recovering from.

In case you haven't figured, the NV3x series is outselling the R3x0 series unit-wise, last time I checked.

Do you have a link for this? I'm rather curious to see how the various cards have been stacking up in terms of sales...

As Dig mentioned though, even if the NV3X cards are selling well, it's atleast partially due to the massive scucess of the GF4s. IF the NV3X cards don't perform well with DX9 titles (they are argueably decent with DX8) then a lot of people will not be interested in buying the next generation, even if they are good cards.

Nite_Hawk

 

[cthellis42]

In case you haven't figured, the NV3x series is outselling the R3x0 series unit-wise, last time I checked.

Strip out the 5200's and you'll see who's more embraced by the game/enthusiast community, of course. (And last I knew there were few sales numbers, but that the 5200 had 70% of the sales.)

I'm questioning the level of "failure" of the nv3x mainly from the general public's perspective. Other than those of us who REALLY read the review sites and are in general video and gaming nerds--with whom nVidia has lost much ground--just about EVERYTHING that's been going on the past year has flown right off the general public's radar. Most still carry lingering "nVidia is the best" attitudes--even among gamers who just don't care to read too many reviews--and the bulk of cards sold and profit made from any line are the mainstream ones anyway, and it takes a LOT for people who buy those cards to notice, and for OEM's to shift gears.

I certainly think that nv30's overall lifespan, and the manner in which nVidia has been handling themselves during it equates to a big failure, but I certainly don't account for the bulk of their sales. I even see that they've lost a lot of ground and respectability from certain sectors, but from enough to make a MAJORITY of people think nv30 was a failure, public and businesses alike? No way. And even if nv40 follows up with equivolent problems compared to R420, there's still plenty of wool left to pull over the general public's and companies' eyes. (Especially since they usually shut their eyes voluntarily anyway.)

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

In case you haven't figured, the NV3x series is outselling the R3x0 series unit-wise, last time I checked.

Be interesting to see what the profit margins are. Nvidia have had poor yeilds of NV3x and are cutting margins in order to keep market share. IIRC, dollar for dollar, ATI is making more money for each card they sell than Nvidia.

NV3x is not a failure in general terms, but if you look at what Nvidia *intended* for NV3x to do, how they expected to dominate the market, control DX9, and sell loads, I think you'd have to agree NV3x has not achieved it's aims. When you take into account losing the high end technology race, cancelling NV30, and tarnishing Nvidia's name with the digerati, I don't think you could call NV3x a success. At best it's a failed attempt to do anything more than tread water in the DX8 marketplace which only came unstuck because of ATI's stellar DX9 part.

 

[digitalwanderer]

I think all those 5200s are going to come back and hurt nVidia harshly. I'm already seeing "I have an FX but my framerates are kind of low" messages crop up on some sites, I expect it to be raining 'em before long. (Frowny because I am NOT happy that so many people are going to be getting a lousy gaming experience who's only mistake has been to fall for some PR hype. )

 

[RussSchultz]

The GF4MX didn't hurt them, I don't see why the 5200 will.