Talk about coincidence according to Gamefront.de Capcom announced today that they've shipped 1 million units of RE4 for the Nintendo Wii.
NPD Software sales from a Nintendo presentation
- Thread starter Rangers
- Start date
Talk about coincidence according to Gamefront.de Capcom announced today that they've shipped 1 million units of RE4 for the Nintendo Wii.
Wrong thread?
Arwin, as people have been trying to point out to you, you are drawing some questionable conclusions from the presented data. You seem to believe that this chart indicates that the 360 has pretty much fully tapped it's prior sales base since the XBOX software sales have declined at roughly the same rate that the 360 software sales have grown. This being a direct cause-and-effect is very questionable, though.
Firstly, the decline in XBOX sales has to have been affected by the decline in software releases. XBOX owners couldn't buy games in the numbers that they had previously, because there were no games to buy. A quick look on Gamerankings, shows over 200 releases in 2005 (200 is the upper limit of responses to the query), 120 in 2006 and 47 in 2007. Keep in mind this is just number of releases. In terms of quality, of those 47 released in 2007 only 2 (Madden and NCAA Football 2008) were what I would classify as major releases. The XBOX software sales are very clearly being affected by something other than people upgrading to the 360.
Secondly, we know what the user bases of the 2 machines were at each point and the 360 user base at this time is still only slightly more than half what the XBOX user base was in 2005. Even if you choose to assume that every current 360 owner has upgraded from the XBOX and every future 360 owner will only draw from this prior userbase you still have not even come close to exhausting that pool!
There is some relationship between the XBOX software sales and the 360 software sales, but it is not the direct relationship that you are trying to make it out to be.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Exactly.
Arwin, even if the 360 had never existed, we would see a similar trend in Xbox1 sales.
Conversely, if Xbox1 had been slimlined ala PS2, and was still being sold for $130, we would see much higher Xbox1 SW sales, regardless of whether 360 was launched or not. The Xbox1 would've stolen alot of the PS2's current sales if it was currently being produced.
Making a connection between falling Xbox1 sales, and increasing 360 sales is completely without base. It's actually much more logical to assume the sustained sales in PS2 software, and Hardware, are due to the fact Xbox1 was killed off, thus forcing existing Xbox1 owners to purchase PS2 versions of their favorite games.
That my conclusions are questionable is obvious to me now. They have been questioned quite enough in this thread. The facts are very obvious. What's less obvious to me, is what arguments are behind it.
Yeah? So I'm an Xbox1 owner in the U.S., and its my only console. Suddenly and very quickly, the number of new games I can go out and buy drop considerably. What happens now? I stop buying games, and find another hobby?
What we see in this chart is active buyers. Those buying an Xbox and games in 2002 are not necessarily still buying games in 2005. They are still less likely to be buying games in 2007. Those that were buying games in 2005 however are much more likely to buy games in 2007, but as you point out, there's little to buy at that point. So they have little choice but to find another console.
Well, let's just say I am impatiently waiting a better explanation.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Stop right there. You're making a huge assumption here. What percentage of Xbox1 owners also owned a PS2? We don't know, but I would guess at least half...
Suddenly and very quickly, the number of new games I can go out and buy drop considerably. What happens now? I stop buying games, and find another hobby?
You start buying PS2 games because you also own a PS2, or you spend $130 to buy a PS2, or you shell out >$400 on a next-gen system+accessories.
For most people, there's a huge jump between spending $130 and $400.
And it makes more sense to believe that people actively buying games in 2005 are mainstream consumers who purchased the console at lower pricepoints, and thus would be more likely to purchase a PS2 than spend >$400 on a new system.
I'm going to take one more stab at explaining why this chart does *not* show "replacement" of existing sales.
The problem, as several people have pointed out, is that these charts show *software*, not *hardware*. These are extremely different propositions for two reasons:
1) Two of the platforms represented in this chart are no longer for sale at all
2) Three of the represented platforms have very few games released for them
It's important to consider what it means to say that the sales on Wii and 360 are REPLACING sales on PS2, XBox, and GameCube. By saying that, one is asserting that *instead* of buying a game on the old platform, a game is being purchased on the newer platform instead. There are a few problems with this.
1) When looking at Wii software sales, the largest sellers target a hugely different segment from the largest sellers of the previous generation. This is an indicator that total sales to the previous base (for GC) have *decreased* while a different subset of people is buying Wii software. This indicates not replacement, but LOSS in one sector and GROWTH in another. Not the same thing.
2) The fact that 360 sales are already approaching XBox 2005 levels, despite having less than half of the installed base indicates that the attach rate for the 360 is significantly higher than that of the XBox. This means that the comparison of the *software* chunk for both platforms is meaningless. It is quite likely that many 360 sales are former XBox sales, however, what this more shows is that current (circa 2005) Xbox owners are simply buying fewer games for the platform. Again, this is not the same assertion.
3) There is zero evidence at all that the growth in either 360, GameCube, or PS3 sales is the reason why PS2 sales have decreased. Given the vast decrease in available titles for the console, what should be more surprising is in fact *how little the sales for the system actually decreased*. If anything, this is evidence that the vast majority of the PS2 base is untouched.
From this, we can safely assume that 360 owners are pretty rabid about buying software. Big surprise. We can also make a pretty reasonable assumption that a large percentage of Wii sales are to people who didn't own a GC, XBox, or PS2 in the last generation. One can make an argument that a loyal XBox core has purchased the 360. However, you could make an equally unprovable assumption that a large percentage of the 360 core is new sales, and that XBox software sales drops are due to the death of the system. It could also be some of both. There is no data to support any sort of brand loyalty argument, because we know nothing about which consumers bought what software in which years.
The same problem is what makes trying to extrapolate the likely purchasing tendencies of PS2 owners difficult. The high software data could indicate that they're pretty happy with their PS2's and have no interest in moving to a new console at all.
Brand loyalty and market trends are mindshare and market landscape questions, not sales questions. These are just numbers, and as such they can't give us any of that information.
The problem, as several people have pointed out, is that these charts show *software*, not *hardware*. These are extremely different propositions for two reasons:
1) Two of the platforms represented in this chart are no longer for sale at all
2) Three of the represented platforms have very few games released for them
It's important to consider what it means to say that the sales on Wii and 360 are REPLACING sales on PS2, XBox, and GameCube. By saying that, one is asserting that *instead* of buying a game on the old platform, a game is being purchased on the newer platform instead. There are a few problems with this.
1) When looking at Wii software sales, the largest sellers target a hugely different segment from the largest sellers of the previous generation. This is an indicator that total sales to the previous base (for GC) have *decreased* while a different subset of people is buying Wii software. This indicates not replacement, but LOSS in one sector and GROWTH in another. Not the same thing.
2) The fact that 360 sales are already approaching XBox 2005 levels, despite having less than half of the installed base indicates that the attach rate for the 360 is significantly higher than that of the XBox. This means that the comparison of the *software* chunk for both platforms is meaningless. It is quite likely that many 360 sales are former XBox sales, however, what this more shows is that current (circa 2005) Xbox owners are simply buying fewer games for the platform. Again, this is not the same assertion.
3) There is zero evidence at all that the growth in either 360, GameCube, or PS3 sales is the reason why PS2 sales have decreased. Given the vast decrease in available titles for the console, what should be more surprising is in fact *how little the sales for the system actually decreased*. If anything, this is evidence that the vast majority of the PS2 base is untouched.
From this, we can safely assume that 360 owners are pretty rabid about buying software. Big surprise. We can also make a pretty reasonable assumption that a large percentage of Wii sales are to people who didn't own a GC, XBox, or PS2 in the last generation. One can make an argument that a loyal XBox core has purchased the 360. However, you could make an equally unprovable assumption that a large percentage of the 360 core is new sales, and that XBox software sales drops are due to the death of the system. It could also be some of both. There is no data to support any sort of brand loyalty argument, because we know nothing about which consumers bought what software in which years.
The same problem is what makes trying to extrapolate the likely purchasing tendencies of PS2 owners difficult. The high software data could indicate that they're pretty happy with their PS2's and have no interest in moving to a new console at all.
Brand loyalty and market trends are mindshare and market landscape questions, not sales questions. These are just numbers, and as such they can't give us any of that information.
It's hardly rocket science. You made a comment that other developers should be able to accomplish the same as re4 has done on the wii. So porting old titles that have done well on other platforms should be successful?
In other news, Capcom just announced that RE4 for Wii has shipped over a million units. I'd like you to name three third-party titles released since launch which you believe should have sold a million units or more, but haven't, and justify this based on more than franchise name alone. I'll bet you can't find more than one. I think Madden 08 should have done better, but I can't for the life of me think of any other 3rd-party Wii titles that just screamed "PLATINUM!" and only sold 100K.
Last edited by a moderator:
Is there an echo in here?
And its not just that madden 08 for the wii didn't sell as well as expectations, it got outsold by a version for a deceased platform.
Last edited by a moderator:
That graph infers alot. But the only thing concrete is that xbox, gc and Ps2 sales are shrinking and 360, wii and ps3 sales are growing.
The xbox, gc and ps2 falling sales aren't just the result of people migrating to next gen console to buy next gen software. The fact that there is less new last gen software being pushed into the market also plays a part. The PS2>GC>Xbox in terms of new software offerings (if Im not mistaken), which mirrors the sales graph.
We don't have concrete data on the demographics of the owners of the 360, PS3 or Wii, so you can't say whos next gen software sales are cannibalizing whos last gen software sales.
There is a lot of ownership overlap especially among hardcore gamers who are the first to migrate to the newer consoles, so to think that xbox owners are the ones primarily buying 360 software seems simplistic since a lot of those xbox owners who migrated to the 360 also owned a PS2 and/or a GC.
The xbox, gc and ps2 falling sales aren't just the result of people migrating to next gen console to buy next gen software. The fact that there is less new last gen software being pushed into the market also plays a part. The PS2>GC>Xbox in terms of new software offerings (if Im not mistaken), which mirrors the sales graph.
We don't have concrete data on the demographics of the owners of the 360, PS3 or Wii, so you can't say whos next gen software sales are cannibalizing whos last gen software sales.
There is a lot of ownership overlap especially among hardcore gamers who are the first to migrate to the newer consoles, so to think that xbox owners are the ones primarily buying 360 software seems simplistic since a lot of those xbox owners who migrated to the 360 also owned a PS2 and/or a GC.
AlphaWolf said:
So you believe that non-casual non-kiddie games only sell on the Wii when they are already 3 years old?
If publishers see that old, but quality games sell reasonable well, why wouldn't they put new quality game on the platform to generate even more sales?
Do you think that if RE4 would be brand new, sales would not have been higher? If we assume that a considerable part of Wii owners are previous hardcore GCN owners (not unrealistic, I would think), many of them would already own RE4, and not buy it again...
Simplistic as it may seem, from all the way up there, the general overview does look that way. I do not understand why you can view "less new last gen software being pushed' as a separate issue. It's one very important driver for next-gen acceptance. Next-gen gets the latest releases AND it looks better. You need those two factors to overcome the status quo of being happy with your current console of choice.
Depending on how much you believe in VGchartz, the Wii version eventually pulled out ahead and is around 200K now. Still not good for Madden, but according to Metacritic, neither is this game. 76? Ouch!
What were your two other games? Maybe you think Shrek the Third should have gone multi-platinum? Carnival Games? Did Boogie just have 3m sold written all over it before launch? People keep talking about how third party games can't do well on Wii, yet when asked which games they expected to sell like gangbusters, or would have on PS3 or 360, they're always at a loss for words.
Last edited by a moderator:
I believe vgchartz as much as I believe in any randomly generated numbers.
Where did I mention 2 other games?
Fine, all 3rd party games ever made for the wii suck, but don't be surprised if this sort of discussion continues 3 years from now. This isn't a new thing for nintendo with the wii.
Well, if you have some kind of contradicting opinion with some sort of facts to back it up, I'm all ears. Your assertion is that third party games can't sell on Wii, an assertion made with so far only one piece of evidence: the 76-rated Madden 08. That's not a very good data point, if you ask me. You made an assertion, I asked you to back it up with facts, and now it appears you're admitting that in fact you can't.
So since you won't do it yourself, let's look at third-party Wii titles rated over an 80:
Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition 91
Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure 86
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock 84
MLB Power Pros 82
Madden NFL 07 81
Trauma Center: Second Opinion 80
Well let's see, the only 3rd party game to break 90 sold over a million units. How about that! Anecdotal reports suggest that the Wii version of GH3 is selling quite well, Madden 07 sold ~400K units, which isn't great for Madden but is pretty good for Madden on Nintendo, and Trauma Center is one of the higher selling 3rd party Wii titles if I recall correctly. The only real unknowns on that list are Zack & Wiki and MLB Power Pros, but I don't think the latter was tearing up the charts on PS2, either.
I didn't. I looked at games rated over an 80. 80 is ten points lower than 90, and games rated below 80 tend not to sell particularly well. Maybe you just didn't realize how bad 3rd party games actually are, that a mere 6 out of ~90 scored above 80.
The 360 can't cannibalize xbox software that aren't going to be there. Limited release of xbox software in 2007 gauranteed a sharp fall in sales.
The 360 is responsilbe for cannibalizng more PS2 software sales then Xbox software sales.
Similar threads
