NPD September 2016 Sales Results, Results Ranked by Revenue (Hardware Now, Software Later)

[Jay]

The higher your margins are, the more you can afford to drop prices if need be. So i dont really understand your argument? Unless you mean that stockholders dont like making less money but the same rule applies to Microsoft. Xbox Division is not allowed to gobble up MS financials forever

Anyways, IHS calculated that the Xbox One S BOM is 24 dollars more than the latest Xbox One SKU. This is primarily because of the 2x more expensive BD

Unless GDDR5 prices are exactly the same as in 2013, i see Sony having more room to adjust prices since they skipped the 4k BD, even in 2013 their blu ray drive was cheaper because it was inhouse manufactured

my point is how much would they have to cut the price to make the value proposition greater than the perceived value of xos or pro?
could they cut that much regardless how much it costs in relation to the xo to make.

that's not including things like share holders etc, I'm sure most would understand not making as much when playing catch up on hardware, compared to when your ahead.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Because the pro seems like a VERY good deal compared to the standard ps4 now. and the ps4 seems bit too expensive compared to pro.
Where someone was going to get the slim, now their thinking it's just not worth it, so either wait for more of a price cut on slim or save more for pro.

But I do actually agree with your general point though.
So it will be interesting in the coming months.
Being so (relatively) closely priced has made things very strange.

The point Shifty was making is this.

If you all you cared about was performance, then you'd have gotten a PS4 at some point since the PS4 launched.

If price was the most important consideration, then a 399 PS4 Pro wouldn't be any more attractive than a 399 PS4 was.

Anyone that was waiting for PS4 to hit X price point before buying one isn't going to be getting a PS4 Pro, hence isn't going to be interested in a PS4 Pro.

Just like people continued to buy PS2 for over a year after the far more powerful PS3 came out. Or the X360 and PS3 continued to sell for over a year after the XBO and PS4 came out. Price was all the most important factor to those consumers.

The people most interested in a PS4 Pro compared to a PS4 will be people that already own either a PS4 or an XBO.

Regards,
SB

 

[Jay]

The point Shifty was making is this.

If you all you cared about was performance, then you'd have gotten a PS4 at some point since the PS4 launched.

If price was the most important consideration, then a 399 PS4 Pro wouldn't be any more attractive than a 399 PS4 was.

Anyone that was waiting for PS4 to hit X price point before buying one isn't going to be getting a PS4 Pro, hence isn't going to be interested in a PS4 Pro.

Just like people continued to buy PS2 for over a year after the far more powerful PS3 came out. Or the X360 and PS3 continued to sell for over a year after the XBO and PS4 came out. Price was all the most important factor to those consumers.

The people most interested in a PS4 Pro compared to a PS4 will be people that already own either a PS4 or an XBO.

Regards,
SB

yea, understood his point and in general actually agree with it.
just highlighting the fact that ps4 and pro isn't that different in price, that it may cause price sensitive consumers to wait for a bigger price cut on ps4, or save for a pro. As the perceived value of the ps4 may not be that high, even at a lower price point.
I.e. Ps4 slim may not be cheap enough to attract that consumer who was willing to wait this long.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

If you all you cared about was performance, then you'd have gotten a PS4 at some point since the PS4 launched.

Yup. And you'd be thinking about upgrading to Pro next month, not buying a Slim. Unlike the Xbox One S, PS4 Slim has very little to offer existing PS4 owners unless you're really tight for space, or the OG PS4 is just too loud.

If price was the most important consideration, then a 399 PS4 Pro wouldn't be any more attractive than a 399 PS4 was. Anyone that was waiting for PS4 to hit X price point before buying one isn't going to be getting a PS4 Pro, hence isn't going to be interested in a PS4 Pro.

Yup.

Sony have a lot of balls in the air with the Slim, Pro and PSVR all launching within a couple of months, so trying to ascertain why sales are what they are is impossible. A few people have asked why somebody who hasn't not bought a PS4 would buy a Pro now instead of a Slim? PSVR could be a reason. Pro+PSVR will be, I think, be the cheapest entry point for VR and it's customer friendly. If you're looking to get into VR, a little research should lead most people to consider waiting for the more powerful PS4.

Maybe Xbox One is now just more appealing as a platform to more people than PS4. For equally unattributable reasons.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Maybe Xbox One is now just more appealing as a platform to more people than PS4. For equally unattributable reasons.

Well one thing that XBO currently has going for it is the XBO-S. It's a good entry point for UHD and HDR. Similar to how the PS3 was a good entry point for many people for BRD. The effect likely won't be as large, but it wouldn't surprise me if some of the buyers of the XBO-S got it primarily as a UHD player similar to how some buyers of the PS3 got it primarily as a BRD player.

And yeah it's going to take until next summer for us to get a good idea of the whole dynamic of the PS4-P and PS4-S. Right now early adopters are going to heavily skew things towards the PS4-P as well as PSVR (similar to Rift and Vive). This should settle out by next summer, potentially.

Although if things happen as I'm expecting them to. I think PSVR might have a Wii-like period of success of 1-3 years before falling like a rock into obscurity. But I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong in my pessimism over VR.

But so far everything is working out almost exactly like how I expected it to. Although on the PC side, interest has waned far sooner than I expected it to.

Regards,
SB

 

[Jubei]

my point is how much would they have to cut the price to make the value proposition greater than the perceived value of xos or pro?
could they cut that much regardless how much it costs in relation to the xo to make.

that's not including things like share holders etc, I'm sure most would understand not making as much when playing catch up on hardware, compared to when your ahead.

I dont know by how much. But clearly at 299 $ its not cheap enough for most people to buy it. For only a 100 dollars more you get a much more powerful machine.

Also MS is not really playing catch up. This generation is done, more than 20 million difference in units to overcome wich wont happen. These NPD announcements sound impressive but in terms of actual numbers, we are talking about 200-300k difference total for all 3 months. And this is in Microsofts strongest markets NA and UK, they are dead everywhere else.

But i think PS4 Pro will need a price cut next year when Scorpio comes out. And that either makes Slim obselete or Sony needs to drop further down in price there aswell

 

[Rikimaru]

But i think PS4 Pro will need a price cut next year when Scorpio comes out. And that either makes Slim obselete or Sony needs to drop further down in price there aswell

But you do not know Scorpio price yet...

 

[Jay]

I dont know by how much. But clearly at 299 $ its not cheap enough for most people to buy it. For only a 100 dollars more you get a much more powerful machine.

Also MS is not really playing catch up. This generation is done, more than 20 million difference in units to overcome wich wont happen. These NPD announcements sound impressive but in terms of actual numbers, we are talking about 200-300k difference total for all 3 months. And this is in Microsofts strongest markets NA and UK, they are dead everywhere else.

But i think PS4 Pro will need a price cut next year when Scorpio comes out. And that either makes Slim obselete or Sony needs to drop further down in price there aswell

how long is this generation going to last for it to be declared as over?
anyway, I wasn't talking about winning, loosing, I was talking about playing catch-up in terms of not wanting to lose market share, being seen as competitive. When your behind you have to give people more reason to invest in your product.

up until now most people saw the ps4 as the better value.
will that still be the case going forward, xo-s may be seen as the better low cost value item.
what if rumours from 'insiders' start to say Scorpio is only $50-100 more than pro? Will that cause people wanting the premium product to think twice? Not talking about the people who are going to buy ps4 pro regardless in the initial first few months.
will Sony care about not leading sales, as you say this gen is done so does it matter that much? What does it matter.
fun times ahead.

 

[Rangers]

Aqua is releasing some numbers on her twitter @AstronautClaire . Physical retail only all these.

Top 3 games 1 NBA 2k17, 2. Madden 17 3. Fifa 17 (yay sportsball)

NBA 2k17, 1306k (up 18% YoY)
Madden 17 727k without bundles, 788k with
Fifa 17 444k (down 30% YoY)
Forza Horizon 3 150k "range", top 1st party title, only 5 days tracking
GTA V 152k, up 15% YoY (lol)
Uncharted 4 100k range including bundles
WoW Legion 100k range (PC physical!)
Overwatch 82k, more than 1 million overall (doesn't seem that great to me, but likely a high digital title).
No Man's Sky 50k range (huge fall)
ReCore under 50k.
XCom 2 under 25k
Rainbow 6 Siege and The Division around 40k sales "each month".

Hardware ASP's

Hardware Average Selling Price (ASP) in Sep. 2016 USA Retail according to NPD: PS4: $306.10, XBO: $299.57, Wii U: $298.59, PS3: $152.50

PS3 40,900 (+54.3% YoY, not sure why the bump)
Wii U 36,300 (-58.9% YoY)
10 year old PS3 outsells Wii U
3DS: up YoY
Playstation 4 285,300 (down 19.3% YoY)
XBO 332,800 (+13.8% YoY)

Very solid sales for PS4 and XBO. Though, I guess it is September, which is both a 5 week month and approaching holidays

 

[Jubei]

But you do not know Scorpio price yet...

Obviously im speculating. But i think 499 $ is a realistic number no? Wich puts Pro in the same position (but still very different because of ecosystems) as the Slim right now. For 100 dollars more, you get a more powerful console with 4K BD

A year alone in the market is plenty of time for any potential early buyer to invest in PS4 Pro at 399 $

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Aqua is releasing some numbers on her twitter @AstronautClaire . Physical retail only all these.

Top 3 games 1 NBA 2k17, 2. Madden 17 3. Fifa 17 (yay sportsball)

NBA 2k17, 1306k (up 18% YoY)
Madden 17 727k without bundles, 788k with
Fifa 17 444k (down 30% YoY)
Forza Horizon 3 150k "range", top 1st party title, only 5 days tracking
GTA V 152k, up 15% YoY (lol)
Uncharted 4 100k range including bundles
WoW Legion 100k range (PC physical!)
Overwatch 82k, more than 1 million overall (doesn't seem that great to me, but likely a high digital title).
No Man's Sky 50k range (huge fall)
ReCore under 50k.
XCom 2 under 25k
Rainbow 6 Siege and The Division around 40k sales "each month".

Hardware ASP's

Hardware Average Selling Price (ASP) in Sep. 2016 USA Retail according to NPD: PS4: $306.10, XBO: $299.57, Wii U: $298.59, PS3: $152.50

PS3 40,900 (+54.3% YoY, not sure why the bump)
Wii U 36,300 (-58.9% YoY)
10 year old PS3 outsells Wii U
3DS: up YoY

Hehe, funny to see WoW: Legion on there. It has sold multiple millions of copies, and only ~100k of those are physical. Shows just how much digital dominates on PC.

Regards,
SB

 

[Rikimaru]

Obviously im speculating. But i think 499 $ is a realistic number no? Wich puts Pro in the same position (but still very different because of ecosystems) as the Slim right now. For 100 dollars more, you get a more powerful console with 4K BD

A year alone in the market is plenty of time for any potential early buyer to invest in PS4 Pro at 399 $

$300 to $400 is not in same position as $300/$400 to $500.

 

[bgroovy]

That "Top First Party Game" only managed to edge the months old Uncharted 4 by around 50K? Big win there, MS...

 

[Deleted member 11852]

That "Top First Party Game" only managed to edge the months old Uncharted 4 by around 50K? Big win there, MS...

Racers often sell less than shooters. Add in that Microsoft Studios bang out Forza games like EA bang out sports games - there probably isn't as much pent up demand to buy the new one.

 

[Jay]

That "Top First Party Game" only managed to edge the months old Uncharted 4 by around 50K? Big win there, MS...

so is 150k in 5 days, not including bundles bad, especially for a genre that does not usually seem to sell well in America?
what would be a good sales range? I don't follow sales threads so have no idea. Just seems like a strange comparison that your making

 

[bgroovy]

It's bad for a tent pole first party release no matter how many qualifiers you put on it.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

It should have larger than average proportion of digital sales, as that is the only version supporting the play anywhere feature.

 

[Jay]

It should have larger than average proportion of digital sales, as that is the only version supporting the play anywhere feature.

the qualifiers actually make a big difference, comparing 5 days to a month?
I don't know what's good or bad so I was asking you what would be a good amount given those qualifiers, yet all you can say is it's bad. Guess I'll just dismiss your comment until someone gives a reasonable view on it. Thanks

 

[iroboto]

the qualifiers actually make a big difference, comparing 5 days to a month?
I don't know what's good or bad so I was asking you what would be a good amount given those qualifiers, yet all you can say is it's bad. Guess I'll just dismiss your comment until someone gives a reasonable view on it. Thanks

The unfortunate issue is that the business expects a certain amount of copies sold and the public has a different perspective. Most indies would be considered successful if 100K units were sold for instance (1 year).

So my question to do you would be, what level of success matters? The public opinion of what success should be? Or what the publisher deems as a success?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

That "Top First Party Game" only managed to edge the months old Uncharted 4 by around 50K? Big win there, MS...

It's also a play anywhere title. How many people bought it digital to take advantage of play anywhere? We'll never know.

Unlike in the past, there's a rather large incentive to buy digital with Microsoft first party titles. For example, I know a lot of people that have purchased Gears of War 4. I don't know a single person that has purchased the physical package, everyone I know has gotten the digital version.

Regards,
SB