NPD November 2018

[Shortbread]

Some rumored numbers from ResetEra.

Per Magicpork

It was a very close month.

Switch: Voltorb
3DS: Rattata
PS4: Koffing
XBO: Kingler
Other: Vulpix

Per Magicpork

YoY:
Switch: +75%
3DS: -39%
PS4: -13%
XBO: -3%
Other: -6%

Estimates per LordKano
Switch: 1356k
PS4: 1470k
XBO: 1338k

Estimates per Welfare.
PS4: ~1478K
Switch: ~1356K
XB1: ~1342K

 

[Shortbread]

Per csheep

RDR2 outsold COD on dollars, despite being (slightly) behind on units. Pokemon definitely combined for more units and sales than COD and RDR2. Could be behind when digital is added.

Retail title ranking:
1. COD
2. RDR2
3. Fallout76
4. Madden
5. NBA 2k
6. Let's Go Pikachu
7. Let's Go Eevee
8. FIFA
9. AC Odyssey
10. Battlefield V

 

[Goodtwin]

PS4 and X1 had more aggressive Black Friday deals than Switch, but those big discounts seem to be harder to find now. I am betting Switch will take December by a decent margin.

 

[djskribbles]

PS4 and X1 had more aggressive Black Friday deals than Switch, but those big discounts seem to be harder to find now. I am betting Switch will take December by a decent margin.

Yeah the Spider-Man bundle was heavily supply constrained, to the point where it was being resold for profit. I saw some on ebay going for around $300.

Sony seemed to want to limit how many bundles were sold at 199. Benji at Era said that supply was preventing the PS4 from reaching stupid high numbers and had a hunch that it would be down YoY.

 

[iroboto]

Yeah the Spider-Man bundle was heavily supply constrained, to the point where it was being resold for profit. I saw some on ebay going for around $300.

Sony seemed to want to limit how many bundles were sold at 199. Benji at Era said that supply was preventing the PS4 from reaching stupid high numbers and had a hunch that it would be down YoY.

Yea I mean, if I were Sony is there a need to get the numbers up high or to just pull in profits. There is a breaking point (in the price bracket) that you'd worry they're buying PS4 for F2P titles and using it for nothing else.

 

[MrFox]

Yea I mean, if I were Sony is there a need to get the numbers up high or to just pull in profits. There is a breaking point (in the price bracket) that you'd worry they're buying PS4 for F2P titles and using it for nothing else.

It's a fair gamble if it's not widespread, like all the people buying an xb1s because it's the least expensive uhd bluray player and they don't play games.

 

[iroboto]

It's a fair gamble if it's not widespread, like all the people buying an xb1s because it's the least expensive uhd bluray player and they don't play games.

absolutely, the question just becomes whether Sony wants it or not (more profit, or just moving out remaining units to next gen). MS is willing to risk more to stay in the game.

 

[MrFox]

absolutely, the question just becomes whether Sony wants it or not (more profit, or just moving out remaining units to next gen). MS is willing to risk more to stay in the game.

I wonder if this is just a situation with the number of consoles that can be in the channels, considering they still sold a lot of consoles. Do we have any reports of say bestbuy asking sony for a large number of ps4 for BF and they didn't get them? Sony have a world wide distribution to juggle and it's not as clear for them where they should replenish as quickly as possible versus just letting the slow travel of containers from china reaching their distribution points.

If MS was ready to risk more profit to stay in the game, the moment to do it was the X unveiling. I am trying to imagine the cheers from the crowd if they took a loss at launch to tie the price at 399 with a more powerful offering. It could have been almost a reverse situation from E3 2013. They do sales often and even had some crazy bundles with three AAA games. Still the xb1s also launched at 399 for the 2TB with months of delay for the launch of the 1TB and 500GB, so they can empty the channels from the old model.

We are probably missing something which these companies get from internal market research. They have more data for these decisions than we ever will.

 

[iroboto]

I wonder if this is just a situation with the number of consoles that can be in the channels, considering they still sold a lot of consoles. Do we have any reports of say bestbuy asking sony for a large number of ps4 for BF and they didn't get them? Sony have a world wide distribution to juggle and it's not as clear for them where they should replenish as quickly as possible versus just letting the slow travel of containers from china reaching their distribution points.

If MS was ready to risk more profit to stay in the game, the moment to do it was the X unveiling. I am trying to imagine the cheers from the crowd if they took a loss at launch to tie the price at 399 with a more powerful offering. It could have been almost a reverse situation from E3 2013. They do sales often and even had some crazy bundles with three AAA games. Still the xb1s also launched at 399 for the 2TB with months of delay for the launch of the 1TB and 500GB, so they can empty the channels from the old model.

We are probably missing something which these companies get from internal market research. They have more data for these decisions than we ever will.

Supply channels etc, there's probably a lot more to it as you write.

For MS, they can loosen on the hardware as they are currently trying to promote their Game Pass for $1. So you go from new console to instant library for $1 more. And then they hope you stay on there, i suppose ideally they catch you to pay for online as well. My thoughts at least. That could justify some movement.

Not sure about what Sony would do, optimize supply/demand curves, or try to grab as many people as possible now going into next generation.

I mean, there has to be some sort of overlap happening, where the beginning of the generation you're not likely to own both right away, but I imagine we should be seeing more of that closer to the end of the generation. I'm not really sure how that plays out, getting your target audience of choice at the beginning of the generation, those folks are worth metric tons more than the ones at the tail end (total life time expenditure for the owner in that ecosystem)

 

[Silent_Buddha]

So, VentureBeat finally released their NPD piece.

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/18/november-2018-npd-red-dead-on-top-with-strong-debut-from-pikachu/

Some notable tidbits.

1. Red Dead Redemption II
2. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII**
3. Battlefield V**
4. Fallout 76*
5. Pokemon: Lets Go Pikachu*
6. Pokemon: Lets Go Eevee*
7. NBA 2K19
8. Madden NFL 19^
9. Spyro Reignited Trilogy
10. FIFA 19**
11. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
12. Super Mario Party*
13. Marvel’s Spider-Man
14. Mario Kart 8*
15. WWE 2K19
16. God of War 2018
17. Shadow Of The Tomb Raider
18. Just Dance 2019
19. Grand Theft Auto V
20. Forza Horizon 4

GOD (2018) is back in the top 20 for the first time since August.

RDR2 has the top spot, but still isn't the top for 2018.

But COD...damn. No digital PC sales data, so it may or may not have come out on top.

“Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 is the second fastest selling game on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in history, trailing only 2017’s Call of Duty: WWII,” said Piscatella. “This is the fifth consecutive year, and ninth time in the last 10 years, that a title from the Call of Duty franchise has been the best-selling game over the January through November time period.”

So basically, for the past 10 years, COD has only once not been the best selling game for basically an entire year. I'm going to guess that honor belongs to COD: Ghosts. No COD fatigue in sight.

Fallout 76 is in 4th place despite absolutely no digital sales being reported for it on console or PC. Would it be able to challenge RDR 2 and COD: BO3 if they were? We'll never know.

Same goes for Pokémon. And due to the nature of Pokémon sales, the numbers are split. Would it be the top selling title for Nov. if digital was reported and sales weren't split? Who knows?

Top 10 best-selling games so far this year

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII*
2. Red Dead Redemption II
3. NBA 2K19
4. Far Cry 5
5. Madden NFL 19**
6. Marvel’s Spider-Man
7. God of War 2018
8. Monster Hunter: World
9. Grand Theft Auto V
10. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey

Don't think Spider-Man is going to climb much higher than that. And with Super Smash Bros. coming out in Dec. it's possible it may fall a spot in Dec. While sales for the game were amazing, it still represents just a single SKU versus non-exclusive games, thus hampering its overall sales performance.

Top 10 best-selling games of the last 12 months

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII*
2. Red Dead Redemption II
3. Call of Duty: WWII**
4. NBA 2K19
5. Far Cry 5
6. Madden NFL 19**
7. Marvel’s Spider-Man
8. God of War 2018
9. Monster Hunter: World
10. Super Mario Odyssey*

Cool, the rolling 12 month top 10 is back in their NPD articles.

Spider-Man is further down than I expected. GOD (2018) got a nice boost to keep on the charts. NBA 2K19 and Madden NFL 19** are both stronger than I expected. Didn't expect NBA 2K19 to push past Far Cry 5.

Regards,
SB

 

[Karamazov]

Top 10 best-selling games so far this year

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII*
2. Red Dead Redemption II
3. NBA 2K19
4. Far Cry 5
5. Madden NFL 19**
6. Marvel’s Spider-Man
7. God of War 2018
8. Monster Hunter: World
9. Grand Theft Auto V
10. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey

Rockstar's is investing in new machines to ease work of their employees.