NPD May 2009

[Silent_Buddha]

Yeesh, Activision Blizzard has got to be happy with COD. That thing just keeps going and going and going. Same for Halo which is the only console exclusive (between 360 and PS3) with HUGE legs. L4D putting up some nice legs, but I'm sure it'll fade before getting to Halo 3 territory.

It'll be interesting to see if any other fitness package (from a 3rd party) can rival what Wii Fit has been able to accomplish.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Four fitness bundles in the Wii top 10.

Sacred2 is up on the 360 list. I didn't think a top down RPG would do that well on a console. Really must be a PC audience crossover.

Add to that another slow month with nothing really compelling to buy. Makes you wonder if it would still chart in a busier holiday month for example.

Then again, it isn't like there's a lot of top down action RPGs this generation to compete with it unlike last generation which had quite a few.

Some of my favorite games on console last gen were top down action RPGs. A bit mindless but fun.

Regards,
SB

 

[RobertR1]

Four fitness bundles in the Wii top 10.

Sacred2 is up on the 360 list. I didn't think a top down RPG would do that well on a console. Really must be a PC audience crossover.

In a way, I'm glad to see fitness bundles in being sold. Here's hoping they're actually being used. God knows most people could do with a regular exercise. If gaming is a gateway to exercise for a lot of people, I'm all for it.

 

[obonicus]

I wonder how much overlap there is. Someone who bought Wii Fit will probably have outpaced 5 minutes after taking it home, and that launched over a year ago. But are the Jillian Michaels Crowd buying EA Sports Active etc.?

 

[TheChefO]

If you have it to show Natal, why do you want to buy it?

Replacements, food items etc.

Or gifts ... your friend has x and you want it for someone else or yourself.

The point is, it is there in the living room.

Not off in the office or wherever else.

"Natal, order a pizza"

"Natal, when does Halo 4 come out?"

"Natal, how many feet are in a meter?"

Get me?

 

[Gradthrawn]

Replacements, food items etc.

Or gifts ... your friend has x and you want it for someone else or yourself.

The point is, it is there in the living room.

Not off in the office or wherever else.

"Natal, order a pizza"

"Natal, when does Halo 4 come out?"

"Natal, how many feet are in a meter?"

Get me?

Hmmm.... combine that with HDMI CEC support to automatically switch to the 360's input when a command is received (and then back when you're done), and that could be very usefully. Ordering a pizza, buying the DVD (or Live version!) for a TV show you just watched, the possibilities are quite exciting. Particularlly if they could add standby mode support for it (similar to current downloads in standby).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well, yes despite my silly remark (last thing I bought off the 'net was a digital piano, and I just thought about trying to get one of those), but I think you're both expecting too much and attributing more to Natal than it warrants versus the competition. For expecting too much, I don't expect the voice recognition to be that accurate in generic word recognition, and I image there'll be enough frustrating bugs that it won't be used in that context. As for competition, there's certainly the opportunity there for MS, but that same tech can be added to PS3 and media PCs and laptops and even next-gen set-top boxes just as readily. It's not a service MS could monopolise. They may get there first, but if they do, others will follow very quickly.

Looking at it another way, why does it need voice-recognition to be a success? Couldn't Wii offer a fabulous service with a click interface? The lack of a keyboard is the only advantage, but a directory service like Yellow Pages could be rolled out. People still prefer to use Google and work through options than use Ask. But then perhaps you're right, MS will have the only robust voice recognition system and people will comfortably use it while avoiding keyboard or other systems on other services.

 

[Gradthrawn]

Well, yes despite my silly remark (last thing I bought off the 'net was a digital piano, and I just thought about trying to get one of those), but I think you're both expecting too much and attributing more to Natal than it warrants versus the competition. For expecting too much, I don't expect the voice recognition to be that accurate in generic word recognition, and I image there'll be enough frustrating bugs that it won't be used in that context. As for competition, there's certainly the opportunity there for MS, but that same tech can be added to PS3 and media PCs and laptops and even next-gen set-top boxes just as readily. It's not a service MS could monopolise. They may get there first, but if they do, others will follow very quickly.

Looking at it another way, why does it need voice-recognition to be a success? Couldn't Wii offer a fabulous service with a click interface? The lack of a keyboard is the only advantage, but a directory service like Yellow Pages could be rolled out. People still prefer to use Google and work through options than use Ask. But then perhaps you're right, MS will have the only robust voice recognition system and people will comfortably use it while avoiding keyboard or other systems on other services.

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect any of what I was just talking about or what TheChefO mentioned. Not from this iteration of Natal, at least. I would expect something along those lines in the 2nd or 3rd generation (and it probably won't be the first). Not because it can't be done now, but because we're talking about a project designed for retail, which is probably built around a realistic budget (realistic in terms of ROI). And no, there's nothing stopping SCE or Nintendo from doing the same. Except themselves, that is. SCE hasn't exactly ran with the Eye Toy or PS Eye (but that's a different story). I was just getting excited by the possibilities that TheChefO brought it. It was something I hadn't considered when thinking of Natal (or its ilk).

 

[TheChefO]

But then perhaps you're right, MS will have the only robust voice recognition system and people will comfortably use it while avoiding keyboard or other systems on other services.

I don't know how far others are in voice rec nor what control MS has via patents.

My comments were more along the lines of a system that is there that does everything.

You want to type something? Sure, use a virtual keyboard on screen or a keyboard add-on. Have an example of something to show? Put it in front and let it scan. Or use your voice and select likely options from natal on screen.


Nobody knows how well it will work ATM, but the possibility is there.

As for why they wouldn't use xyz? Well, if xyz isn't there in the home, or isn't hooked up or used ...


If Natal is already there in the home and being used by mom as a personal trainer, by the kids for dodgeball and sesame street, and for dad with Halo 5, then it's readily available for misc searches and uses outside of gaming as well. And since it is in the living room, the convenience couldn't be greater.

 

[fearsomepirate]

There's been decent voice recognition software for PC for a long time. The problem is, no one actually wants to talk to their computers. If the technology gets improved a bit so it can basically input a search string into Google, uh, I mean MSN search, will that change things? I doubt it.

Look at it this way: It's been three years, and people are only recently barely figuring out how to make software for a simple wand + pointer that doesn't completely suck. Do I believe these same people are going to come out of the gate in the next couple of years with totally amazing full-body control software? No, for the simple reason that "next-gen" anything rarely turns out to be what the most hopeful dream about. Radiant AI turned out to be a mess. Fable was a short, fairly linear RPG. Black & White's AI was barely functional. The awesome power of the PS2 did not turn into NPCs that had real-time emotions.

Also, think about what you're saying about Microsoft. What they are hyping is a revolution. When's the last time MS has ever led a revolution? When have they ever had that kind of development power? MS is very, very good at one thing: Taking established ideas, adding a few bullet points, and selling them at a bargain price or bundling them with something you need. Occasionally, they will take 5 different tasks that you currently use 5 different programs for and integrate them into a single package, like Outlook, Visual Studio, or Live. Or they'll spruce something up and streamline it, like .NET. But breathtaking, groundbreaking, revolutionary software? Leading the way in new frontiers? It's just not in their corporate DNA.

They have great marketing. They're about the only company out there that produces slick, expensive commercials for tech demos (Table PC, Natal) that get people's imaginations all worked up. But this is a company with decades-long history of promising to change the world and then delivering something remarkably like what's already out there. Yeah, I know, they could have hired an internal team with the talent and freedom to do what MS never does, but that would pretty much be a first, so I remain skeptical until the product hits the shelves.

 

[patsu]

Hmmm.... combine that with HDMI CEC support to automatically switch to the 360's input when a command is received (and then back when you're done), and that could be very usefully. Ordering a pizza, buying the DVD (or Live version!) for a TV show you just watched, the possibilities are quite exciting. Particularlly if they could add standby mode support for it (similar to current downloads in standby).

Then the order screen will randomly pop up from time to time, and you'd have to get rid of it every time.

I used to have a setup like that, plus an automated agent observing my Mac desktop activities in the background. It would try to generalize these activities and generate scripts automatically. If I approve the scripts, they get executed on demand, or whenever the agent sees fit. The system was also integrated with a telephony API so that I could call out and receive calls using voice command. It could interact with me using a reasonably good, but not great, synthesized speech system (It sang too !). It knew how to adjust its tone when asking a question (because of the "?").

After looking at the Vista speech recognition demo video, I don't think we are there yet. It looks so painfully familiar.

We'll probably get there some day. For now, it should be possible to predefine and share a common task list (e.g., order pizza, call daddy, ...), and then do the right task on demand (rather than let the PS3 or 360 catch the right note "off the air" on its own -- if you want to avoid the hassle of correcting computers every day). I was elated the first few weeks, but gave up eventually.

When not oversold, voice tech can be intriguing. Some of my favorites are:
* Ocarina on iPhone -- play iPhone like a flute (or listen to others play their iPhone Ocarina)
* Sing using your favorite star's voice (Can't remember what app)
* Identify and buy song by humming or listening to a playback

There are probably many other interesting apps out there waiting to be discovered.