Media support is just software at this point - not a gimmick that compromises the experience. It's also worth noting that PS3 cost a bundle thanks to BRD and the games didn't benefit at all, and XB360 didn't appear to suffer from lack of sales due to an absence of HD video. Sony designed Sixaxis into PS3 and that was pointless. MS designed Kinect into XB1 and that was pointless. Nintendo designed a tablet controller into Wii U and that was pointless. 3DS had a 3D screen which contributed nothing much in the end, such that they could release a 2D screen 3DS. Back to our original discussion, would a Nintendo handheld with HDMI port, a true successor to DS/3DS, be selling twice as much as Switch now? The earliest NPD can show this is next month if Switch sales are off a cliff. If they stay high, it may be a year before we can determine if the USPs of Switch are helping drive sales or are just holding the platform back by making it more expensive than needs be.
How much does a dock cost though?
We'll have to wait and see if local copy on a 7" screen ends up being a big thing or not.
A pure portable would be a lot a cheaper without detachable controllers ($90 BOM estimate for two). It could also be a more convenient form factor, more portable.
I said we need to ignore the first month sales. I haven't stated an opinion that that number would support. Maybe you've misread?
No. The minimum time needed for some evidence to my argument (simpler, cheaper hardware will have more appeal) will need to get past the initial enthusiast adoption of the hardware. There's going to be some months' sales not driven by anything much more than it being a new console. After the honeymoon period, then we see longer term wider consumer interest. The only reason a shorter period can be indicative is if hardware numbers plummet - that shows interest in the hardware isn't there. That is, weak early sales shows weak interest in the console, whereas strong early sales don't show strong interest in the console. You have to look into the medium term to see general consumer interest.
What if sales plummet this month? Let's say hypothetically exaggerated for discussion 50k NPD sales. Would that not be indicative of anything? It'd show clearly in my mind that the console only appealed to existing Nintendo fans. 900k sales again would show interest remains high, perhaps the console being undersupplied. 2,000k sales would show interest in the machine is growing. None describes the long term future but 2 months sales does give something to talk about.
I haven't made any claims about success or failure. I've asked a question about the appeal of novel hardware choices and stated that we need longer term numbers to use Switch as an example for answering that question, unless there's a sudden drop in interest in which case we can start answering that question earlier.
I said we need to ignore the first month sales. I haven't stated an opinion that that number would support. Maybe you've misread?
No. The minimum time needed for some evidence to my argument (simpler, cheaper hardware will have more appeal) will need to get past the initial enthusiast adoption of the hardware. There's going to be some months' sales not driven by anything much more than it being a new console. After the honeymoon period, then we see longer term wider consumer interest. The only reason a shorter period can be indicative is if hardware numbers plummet - that shows interest in the hardware isn't there. That is, weak early sales shows weak interest in the console, whereas strong early sales don't show strong interest in the console. You have to look into the medium term to see general consumer interest.
What if sales plummet this month? Let's say hypothetically exaggerated for discussion 50k NPD sales. Would that not be indicative of anything? It'd show clearly in my mind that the console only appealed to existing Nintendo fans. 900k sales again would show interest remains high, perhaps the console being undersupplied. 2,000k sales would show interest in the machine is growing. None describes the long term future but 2 months sales does give something to talk about.
I haven't made any claims about success or failure. I've asked a question about the appeal of novel hardware choices and stated that we need longer term numbers to use Switch as an example for answering that question, unless there's a sudden drop in interest in which case we can start answering that question earlier.
Well, snipperclips and bomberman are both selling well, and are pretty much meant to be played by two (or more in the case of bomberman). I'm willing to bet a lot of Mario Kart will be played 2up as well, using separated controllers with or without little steering wheels.
Taking away functionality may make the device cheaper, but also less appealing. What if sales plummet this month? Let's say hypothetically exaggerated for discussion 50k NPD sales. Would that not be indicative of anything? It'd show clearly in my mind that the console only appealed to existing Nintendo fans. 900k sales again would show interest remains high, perhaps the console being undersupplied. 2,000k sales would show interest in the machine is growing. None describes the long term future but 2 months sales does give something to talk about.
You're very focussed on the negative. I didn't steer it to 'what if sales bomb' but 'what are the sales motivations for Switch and the long term futures?' that being a question. And what else are we supposed to discuss with sales numbers?! New console on the market, it sells well - are we just supposed to post a few 'congratulations Nintendo!' posts here? Not like there's anything to discuss with PS4 and XB1.
You're very focussed on the negative. I didn't steer it to 'what if sales bomb' but 'what are the sales motivations for Switch and the long term futures?' that being a question. And what else are we supposed to discuss with sales numbers?! New console on the market, it sells well - are we just supposed to post a few 'congratulations Nintendo!' posts here? Not like there's anything to discuss with PS4 and XB1.
I don't get your reticence to talk about predictions. Well, I do...
