NPD March 2008

As a matter of fact, not only is there no evidence to support that conclusion but there is plenty that directly contradicts it. As a matter of fact, if I remember correctly the NPD stated that only around 14% of games sold in 2007 where PC games.

Ahh - here it is:

http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/50939

That is just a quick googled blog. If you need, I can spend more time trying to dig up the actual NPD press release.

And NPD matters why? They haven't counted a game I've bought in quite a long time. Nor do they count the vast majority of PC game revenue.

We've already established in previous discussions that NPD doesn't count at least $2 billion in PC game revenue just from MMOs.

AFAIK, NPD has no clue about steam or most other online content distro systems, no knowledge about the vast majority of the casual game market which is in general only sold through the web and not via stores.

NPD has a very limited data set relying pretty much solely on in store sales which greatly favors consoles in their numbers.

Aaron spink
speaking for myself inc.
 
This is really a case where Occam's razor can and should be used. Yes, there will be some variance from place to place. However, which requires fewer added variables to explain:

1) A slew of "not counted" games and numbers from other countries dwarfs the actual measured results from the NPD to the point to make console gamers "insignificant" as the poster claimed.

Considering the major issues that NPD numbers have matching up with certified accounting numbers, I would say NPD falls on this one. Whats so hard to believe that vastly different markets have different distributions?

2) While exact percentages vary, a world wide model that includes both console downloads and web downloads should produce a similar distribution to the worlds largest market.

Hell, Vanguard probably has produced more online revue that Live or PSN. Direct2Drive probably has produced more online revenue than PSN and live COMBINED. And don't even let me bring STEAM into this.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.
 
We've already established in previous discussions that NPD doesn't count at least $2 billion in PC game revenue just from MMOs.

There isn't $2 billion in game revenue from MMOs in the US. That might be the number for all MMO's the entire world. Blizzard which is more than 50% of MMO subscriptions took in ~$1.2billion total revenue.

AFAIK, NPD has no clue about steam or most other online content distro systems, no knowledge about the vast majority of the casual game market which is in general only sold through the web and not via stores.

This is correct NPD has only recently started tracking any online revenue and that's limited to subscription.

NPD has a very limited data set relying pretty much solely on in store sales which greatly favors consoles in their numbers.

No doubt, but its not much of a stretch that consoles have a lot more money going through them than PCs in terms of game sales.
 
Only because its a new concept to consoles. The dollars are what really make the industry go.

99% of PC gamers don't use or make user generated content anyway. With perhaps the exception of UIs for WoW.

I would say a huge number of PC gamers play entire user-generated games all of the time. Look at the enormous popularity of sites like addictinggames.com. In fact, I would say that user generated content is MORE popular than for-profit stuff out of studios in the PC space.
 
It is part of innovation (You have to name it for common discussion). It is ok if it's just re-cooked innovation (revival or evolution). It is also ok if one innovation hurts another innovation (competition).

Names are only useful when they reasonably describe what they apply to. "Game 3.0" and "Web 2.0" don't do that. Not even remotely. The very fact that they're constantly changing and being used to mean different things by different people only proves that they're useless.

Behaviour can be trained and change (over a long time). e.g., For the upcoming Spore game:

Your quote is not really relevant to your original point. That said, I agree that behavior can change. However, behavior is not the most important thing here, it's *motivation* that is the driver for user generated content. In that arena, I think the only effort out there that I have any hope of seeing something interesting come from is LBP. I think some really awesome, revolutionary stuff *could* come in its wake, but we won't know until it's been out for awhile.

Most importantly, as the concept becomes clearer with more exploration, Game 3.0 definition will morph with time, but user generated content will still remain as user generated content.

This is what I was talking about earlier in my post. You first say that it's a useful word because it provides granular meaning. Then in the same statement, you say that it's constantly changing. The two are at odds.
 
I would say a huge number of PC gamers play entire user-generated games all of the time. Look at the enormous popularity of sites like addictinggames.com. In fact, I would say that user generated content is MORE popular than for-profit stuff out of studios in the PC space.

Most of those games don't qualify as user generated. There are small studios making most of these flash games devoted to advertising revenue.
 
Web games aren't user generated content but indie developments. That's probably a tricky definition to pin down, but I guess the difference is that UGC is additional content for a game/application that provides an experience for the users even without UGC; UGC is supplementary. So UT3 provides a whole game into which scripting mods is an optional extra. Platforms for indie games are programming languages that provide nothing but a development environment.
 
And NPD matters why? They haven't counted a game I've bought in quite a long time. Nor do they count the vast majority of PC game revenue.

We've already established in previous discussions that NPD doesn't count at least $2 billion in PC game revenue just from MMOs.

Simply put, the NPD is a MEASURED quantity. It is not made up numbers by people on forums trying to prove a point. Yes, it has errors. But it is far easier to estimate those errors than to try and take random claims from anonymous forum posters to mean anything.

Moreover, the numbers you are citing would STILL not validate the other posters claim. The gaming industry last year was at around 9 billion dollars. Lets go ahead and add your 2 billion dollar claim (which is dubious at best - as another poster pointed out that does not add with even Blizzards claimed profits and they hold a majority market share). That still puts the PC at under 30% of the market.

Then there is your "not tracked" argument. You did realize that downloads from services like XBox live and PS3 network are also not always counted right? Why is that important? Because there is error on both sides. On the whole, you will find out that the NPD picture is far more accurate than random forum guesses. Yes, there will be error. However, you cannot make a mountain out of a mole hill. I will take actual research over forum goers opinion any day of the week and twice on monday.
 
Most of those games don't qualify as user generated. There are small studios making most of these flash games devoted to advertising revenue.

Using this sort of classification is that the vast majority of mods that get particularly popular are also typically made by indie developers looking to get a leg up.

That's the point I've been making the whole time. The vast majority of gamers have zero interest in making content for other people to play.
 
Web games aren't user generated content but indie developments. That's probably a tricky definition to pin down, but I guess the difference is that UGC is additional content for a game/application that provides an experience for the users even without UGC; UGC is supplementary. So UT3 provides a whole game into which scripting mods is an optional extra. Platforms for indie games are programming languages that provide nothing but a development environment.

So about Counter Strike?
Or Day of Defeat?
Or Gary's Mod?
 
Then there is your "not tracked" argument. You did realize that downloads from services like XBox live and PS3 network are also not always counted right? Why is that important? Because there is error on both sides. On the whole, you will find out that the NPD picture is far more accurate than random forum guesses. Yes, there will be error. However, you cannot make a mountain out of a mole hill. I will take actual research over forum goers opinion any day of the week and twice on monday.

Man, you really don't get it, I wouldn't be surprised at this point that if upwards of 50% of PC game revenue was in channels outside of what NPD tracks at this point.

Likewise, I would be SHOCKED if more than 5% of console revenue was via online downloads.

There is an order of magnitude differential of the parts of the markets not tracked via NPD.

NPD is pretty much useless as it relates to the PC market (esp factoring in the US only nature) and the extreme lack of visibility NPD has into most of the PC market.

Its like using truck sales data and then saying something about GM's and Ford's auto sales being better than Toyoda.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.
 
Man, you really don't get it, I wouldn't be surprised at this point that if upwards of 50% of PC game revenue was in channels outside of what NPD tracks at this point.

Likewise, I would be SHOCKED if more than 5% of console revenue was via online downloads.

There is an order of magnitude differential of the parts of the markets not tracked via NPD.

NPD is pretty much useless as it relates to the PC market (esp factoring in the US only nature) and the extreme lack of visibility NPD has into most of the PC market.

Its like using truck sales data and then saying something about GM's and Ford's auto sales being better than Toyoda.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

Even if you doubled or tripled the PC NPD tracked revenue for the US, it'd still be way behind total consoles. NPD tracked $910 million for pc sales in the US for 2007 and almost $9 billion for consoles (video game sales). MMO's aren't going to be anywhere near $910 million (I'd say $500 million is the high end of plausible for subscriptions with WoW being possibly up to ~$300 million), and I rather doubt steam is anywhere near those numbers.

You'd do much better arguing world wide numbers where PC seems to do relatively better. The US is console land now.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Even if you doubled or tripled the PC NPD tracked revenue for the US, it'd still be way behind total consoles. NPD tracked $910 million for pc sales in the US for 2007 and almost $9 billion for consoles (video game sales). MMO's aren't going to be anywhere near $910 million (I'd say $500 million is the high end of plausible for subscriptions with WoW being possibly up to ~$300 million), and I rather doubt steam is anywhere near those numbers.

You'd do much better arguing world wide numbers where PC seems to do relatively better. The US is console land now.

The rest of the world will inevitably follow. For now countries such as Germany are still said to have strong PC markets, but you can "feel" it declining, as well as read it in the charts.
 
Names are only useful when they reasonably describe what they apply to. "Game 3.0" and "Web 2.0" don't do that. Not even remotely. The very fact that they're constantly changing and being used to mean different things by different people only proves that they're useless.

This is what I was talking about earlier in my post. You first say that it's a useful word because it provides granular meaning. Then in the same statement, you say that it's constantly changing. The two are at odds.

A name is just a readable way to identify something. Not every name has to be meaningful to everyone when first invented (e.g., "electricity") ? If people are curious, they can always ask or look it up: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_2

The concepts are not at odds. It's just the evolution/refinement of ideas while the name stays the same so that people can rally around it like what we do now. One thing I know about names is that it is hard for everyone to agree on a name. :D

Your quote is not really relevant to your original point. That said, I agree that behavior can change. However, behavior is not the most important thing here, it's *motivation* that is the driver for user generated content. In that arena, I think the only effort out there that I have any hope of seeing something interesting come from is LBP. I think some really awesome, revolutionary stuff *could* come in its wake, but we won't know until it's been out for awhile.

The quote was meant to highlight Spore as another Game 3.0 candidate, not just LBP. It is cross platform too (including cellphone variants).
 
Man, you really don't get it, I wouldn't be surprised at this point that if upwards of 50% of PC game revenue was in channels outside of what NPD tracks at this point.

You need to calm down and review what I have posted.

I gave the numbers for if NPD missed over 70% of gaming revenue and PC games would still not even begin to approach the values for console games.

Chew that over for a bit before you hit the reply button. As much as you don't want to admit it, the NPD numbers DO serve as an indicator for the overall state of the PC market. The error in NPD numbers would need to be nearly 800% for the PC market to even be equal to the console market. That is correct - you would need a multiple of 8 for the ~1 billion in PC revenue to get close to the ~8 billion in console revenue for the year.

That is why hard data is better than gut instinct. Like it or not the NPD numbers do reflect the state of the PC market. Like I have said all along, you may not get the absolute percentage, but the overall distribution should mirror reality fairly well.
 
Even if you doubled or tripled the PC NPD tracked revenue for the US, it'd still be way behind total consoles. NPD tracked $910 million for pc sales in the US for 2007 and almost $9 billion for consoles (video game sales). MMO's aren't going to be anywhere near $910 million (I'd say $500 million is the high end of plausible for subscriptions with WoW being possibly up to ~$300 million), and I rather doubt steam is anywhere near those numbers.

Lets just put the number out there correctly, CONSOLES had software sales of 6.64 Billion in the US. I really don't think gameboy, etc is relevant in this discussion.

US subscriber revenue for WOW was ~$450 million and has ~50% of the US MMO marketshare, which put total MMO revenue at ~$900 million in the US.

Now add in all the online PC game revue from things like steam, direct2drive, etc and you are looking at over 25% of the US market. Which considering the PS2 still has/had healthy game sales likely puts the PC on top of the US gaming market...

So I would say even in the US the pc is holding its own, we already know from sales data it does comparatively better in the rest of the world.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.
 
Lets just put the number out there correctly, CONSOLES had software sales of 6.64 Billion in the US. I really don't think gameboy, etc is relevant in this discussion.

Console software was $8.64 billion, that doesn't include PC game sales or xbox live or psn.

US subscriber revenue for WOW was ~$450 million and has ~50% of the US MMO marketshare, which put total MMO revenue at ~$900 million in the US.

Your overestimating the Blizzard sales by a fairly big margin. There are 2.5 million WoW subscribers in NA, not the US. So the US number is probably something like 2.2 million (maybe less, I have no idea about Mexico so I guessed really low). 2.2 million x $13 x 12 = $286million. Blizzard accounts for about 65% of tracked MMO subscriptions worldwide (10 out of 16 million), and typically a much larger share in NA and Europe where subscription prices are higher. So the number is really probably in the $400-$450 million range for all MMO's.

Now add in all the online PC game revue from things like steam, direct2drive, etc and you are looking at over 25% of the US market. Which considering the PS2 still has/had healthy game sales likely puts the PC on top of the US gaming market...

We're still not getting to 20% of video game sales. In the US its even doubtful the PC games outsold the 360s game sales (360 accounting for more than 40% of the console NPD for most of last year).

So I would say even in the US the pc is holding its own, we already know from sales data it does comparatively better in the rest of the world.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

PC game sales have been holding for a long time in the US. Problem is that console game sales are a massive growth industry.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Console software was $8.64 billion, that doesn't include PC game sales or xbox live or psn.

console sales were 6.64. If you want to include 2 billion from a market that PS3/Wii/360/PC don't compete in thats fine, I'll include MS Windows and Office :)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
console sales were 6.64. If you want to include 2 billion from a market that PS3/Wii/360/PC don't compete in thats fine, I'll include MS Windows and Office :)

Even if you take off the portables, pc games still aren't getting near 1/4 of the market.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Back
Top