NPD June 2016 Sales Results, Results Ranked by Revenue

[Rangers]

Aqua numbers were posted in that another(now old) gaf npd topic. It remains to be seen if hardware numbers are revealed in a future at all even by Aquamarine. Aqua does not write in gaf, I don't know a forum numbers were copied from.

She posts them on Vgchartz now. However in past months they were quickly posted over in GAF NPD thread as well. This month apparently they were not, so since I check GAF first, assuming they'll post the numbers as soon as she does, I missed them for a while.

I'm not sure if everybody was just in a sour mood this month over NPD's reorg or if the mods have banned Chartz/Aqua from being referenced. Regardless it's an easy fix, check Chartz not GAF.

 

[Rangers]

The anticipation of new hardware has likely led to some people pausing on purchasing a PS4/XBO. That and the fact that it's summer, which is a predictable seasonal slow period and has been for 30 years.

I suppose it can be a factor. There seemed to be months like this before Scorpio/Neo were a thing though. There's hardly a guarantee Scorpio/Neo will reinvigorate the market.

I'm not sure what you're looking at here? PlayStation and Xbox numbers are up, mobile platforms are down. Hardly surprising compared to 2007 when Android and iOS weren't a thing. And again, it's summer. Sometimes you get cracking games that will drive summer sales like the Witcher 3 and Batman Arkham Knight in late May last year. This year? Not so much.

Just for consoles you're looking at a significant decline.

07
Wii 382k
PS2 271k
360 198k
PS3 98k
Gamecube not mentioned, though likely to be small

Total=949k


Vs

16
PS4 234k
XBO 212k
Wii U 35k
360 16k
PS3 8k

Total=505k

If you separate out just PS/XBox it's 567k in 07, 470k in 16. Which to be fair, though still substantial, is something that could indeed probably be explained away by normal factors such as lack of hit games this month. Also to be fair it's one year shifted, maybe a fairer comp would have been 2008 vs 2016, although you can get into all kinds of caveats there, for example PS3 not launching until 2006 where PS4/XBO both launched the same year.

But you still in a sense have to jump through hoops and ignore 2/3 of 07's hardware sales to get there.

How do you reconcile "industry continues to struggle" and 'the consoles are fast sellers' ?

Only PS4, and somewhat XBO when compared to 360 (even that has probably come back to within 15% by now). And PS4 isn't lighting the world on fire anymore.

Your comment did enlighten me a bit, in that PS4 and XBO continue to look OK to good if you constrain the comparison to 360 and PS3. In part because 360 and PS3 didn't ever light the world on fire, both ending around 80-85 million. Since this is NPD numbers we're discussing, PS3 is further handicapped by being particularly anemic in the USA, in the world of course it did better. Also, 360 was a late bloomer. PS4/XBO shouldn't have any problems beating PS3/360 holidays substantially either, things seem to have shifted to being more holiday focused.

You've still lost a ton of handheld sales, a ton of Wii sales, and the PS2 which was a lifelong monster. But you're right if we restrict to Playstation/Xbox things are probably not so dire indeed.

 

[zed]

I bought it from Steam last month having already bought it for PS3 and PS4.

I was gonna buy it at the steam sale (until I saw the download size ~60GB or something)

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

You've still lost a ton of handheld sales, a ton of Wii sales, and the PS2 which was a lifelong monster. But you're right if we restrict to Playstation/Xbox things are probably not so dire indeed.

Yeah, I looked at the numbers, filtered them immediately in my mind the way you've mentioned above, and wondered why anybody was worried or complaining. Analyzed in this perspective, things look perfectly normal and "healthy" to me.

I don't see an industry problem outside of the fact that when Nintendo launches a successful console it contributes to the overall success of the industry. This is important as it means it is bringing in new customers or creating a 2ndary market. The Wii didn't take MS/Sony customers, it created it's own customers.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I suppose it can be a factor. There seemed to be months like this before Scorpio/Neo were a thing though. There's hardly a guarantee Scorpio/Neo will reinvigorate the market.

The fact that uncertain purchase factors have been introduced will be enough for some to stay a purchasing decision.

PS2 271k

The PS2 was an outlier in every respect. In 2007 it was very cheap and so were the games. If you looking for realistic comparisons you want to ignore outliers entirely. Outlier removal is standard in analysing statistics. You're analysing norms not outliers.

You've still lost a ton of handheld sales, a ton of Wii sales, and the PS2 which was a lifelong monster. But you're right if we restrict to Playstation/Xbox things are probably not so dire indeed.

You've not lost handheld sales, the sales have moved to channels not reported by NPD. There are more games selling on Android and iOS than ever sold on Gameboy/DS/PSP/Vita. In the same way we saw MP3 player sales decline as soon as phones could perform that function we saw the decline of dedicated handheld gaming devices as well. No doubt there was also a decline in the sale of horses once automobiles became viable for transport for many people.

 

[Rangers]

Handheld game consoles. We all know the mobile phone story, no need to regurgitate that. We're talking about video game console sales, and there are less of them (70% less in June 2016 vs June 2007) . The reasons or explanations can vary, but the fact remains. PS and Xbox are probably going to be OK for now. Just as I've thought all along. They serve the core niche that isn't arguably served elsewhere fully (they have complex physical controllers with buttons and with an HDTV provide the best experience sans PC), but there's probably some fraying of that market too at the margins.

 

[Rangers]

The PS2 was an outlier in every respect. In 2007 it was very cheap and so were the games. If you looking for realistic comparisons you want to ignore outliers entirely. Outlier removal is standard in analysing statistics. You're analysing norms not outliers.

 

[Rangers]

Using the hardware revenue and sales we should be able to get a average selling price for PS/Xbox

PS4 hardware revenue 82.63, sales 234.5, ASP= $352.36
XBO revenue 63.23 sales 211.9, ASP=$298.40

Right on their base SKU MSRP's then? I suppose sales and deals are then mitigated by sales of higher priced SKU's? I wonder how gift cards with purchase are factored in?

I guess, at least in June, XBO's price didn't crater all considered? Or enough higher price SKU's were sold to balance things somewhat.

 

[Rangers]

Random look at 3DS hardware dropoff from GAF. I love numbers.

2011 - 15.04 million
2012 - 14.81 million
2013 - 12.89 million
2014 - 7.67 million
2015 - 7.53 million
2016 - 1.85 million (so far)

Also Nintendo results showed a fairly pitiful 220k Wii U and 940K 3DS sold worldwide for April to June 3 months, a well as large losses. However bad you think XBO is doing, Wii U makes it look spectacular. XBO would have done easily 600k US and a million+ worldwide over that period, which is no gangbusters, but ~5x Wii U.

 

[Rangers]

Some random software tidbits given out by Aqua, collated

Overwatch: 423K (222K PS4, 201K XBO)
Doom: (similar demand to Uncharted)
Uncharted 4: 160-190K
Call of Duty: Black Ops III: 268K including bundles (204K on Sony platforms, 64K on Microsoft platforms)
GTA V: 233K in total (100K on Sony platforms, 133K on Microsoft platforms)
Kirby: Planet Robobot: >160K, #4 on the retail standalone charts below Uncharted 4
NBA 2K16: 160K
Minecraft (Wii U Edition release sold really well, above Tokyo Mirage Sessions and #2 for Nintendo outside Kirby)

Overwatch May 2016 Console Total: 361k

Overwatch (PS4): 203k

Overwatch (XBO): 158k



Overwatch June 2016 Console Total: 423K

Overwatch (PS4): 222K

Overwatch (XBO): 201K

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Some random software tidbits given out by Aqua, collated

Overwatch: 423K (222K PS4, 201K XBO)
Doom: (similar demand to Uncharted)
Uncharted 4: 160-190K
Call of Duty: Black Ops III: 268K including bundles (204K on Sony platforms, 64K on Microsoft platforms)
GTA V: 233K in total (100K on Sony platforms, 133K on Microsoft platforms)
Kirby: Planet Robobot: >160K, #4 on the retail standalone charts below Uncharted 4
NBA 2K16: 160K
Minecraft (Wii U Edition release sold really well, above Tokyo Mirage Sessions and #2 for Nintendo outside Kirby)

Overwatch May 2016 Console Total: 361k

Overwatch (PS4): 203k

Overwatch (XBO): 158k



Overwatch June 2016 Console Total: 423K

Overwatch (PS4): 222K

Overwatch (XBO): 201K

Hmmm, that would mean Doom has done significantly better on PC than it did on PS4 + XBO combined. Of course, depending on how many sold digitally on consoles, PS4 + XBO total might be close to Steam. It's up over 900k in Steamspy now, which means in June it sold around 350-400k on PC for June.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same went for Overwatch, it is hugely popular among PC users right now.

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

I'm hoping what I read on GAF about Denovu or whatever being the effective end of cracking is helping PC sales.

 

[zed]

I'm hoping what I read on GAF about Denovu or whatever being the effective end of cracking is helping PC sales.

never heard about it, but I assume youre talking about anti piracy thing, but $100 if its proven to be a significant hindrance, prices of PC software won't drop.

 

[Rangers]

I haven't kept up but I've read on GAF there's some anti-cracking PC software on the scene (Denovu?) that's apparently actually fairly uncrackable. At least within the first 6 months without tremendous difficulty. I'm suspecting that's fueling a recent seeming increase in PC sales, one that I noticed was Tomb Raider.

Google gave this, I got the name right https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denuvo

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Which kinda flies in the face of those who argued piracy didn't affect revenue because the people who pirate wouldn't have bought anyway. I suppose that's a discussion for elsewhere though.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

never heard about it, but I assume youre talking about anti piracy thing, but $100 if its proven to be a significant hindrance, prices of PC software won't drop.

And yet it has. Launch price can't drop as console makers would have a fit. And your general regular price can't drop below console prices, because again, console makers would throw a hissy fit.

But they will drop prices sooner for things like Steam sales or GOG sales or Humble store sales. Doom for instanced was 40% off for the Steam sale just a month after it was released. And that considering it was still one of the top selling games on Steam even before the sale. Before this, it'd generally take 4-6 months before a publisher/developer would drop prices for a Steam sale, and then they'd usually only drop it about 10-15%. Not only was this in ~1 month, but the discount was large.

Proof that Doom not yet being hacked and pirated meant the developer/publisher could put it on sale sooner? No, but the coincidence is strong. In a similar vein. Fallout 4 was quickly hacked and released in pirated form. It didn't receive a discount for the Winter sale. Same publisher.

Regards,
SB