NPD February 2017 Sales Results

D

djskribbles

Legend
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...-tops-us-game-sales-during-tough-february-npd

714x-1

*** No digital sales included

^ Battle.net sales not included

More in link above.

-PS4 #1
-Halo Wars 2 didn't make the top 10, but was the 6th best selling XB1 SKU
-For Honor best selling title so far this year.
-Horizon not included in this month.

Glad to see Nioh made the top 10, even excluding digital sales.
 
So when switch is #1 next month are we even gonna get who wins ps4/xbo?

I assume so, at least someone will leak that on twitter. I mean of course it should be ps4 with zero dawn launching+pro
 
Rangers said:
I assume so, at least someone will leak that on twitter. I mean of course it should be ps4 with zero dawn launching+pro
Click to expand...

That would be my expectation as well, PS4+HZD making a huge impression on the market.
 
Will Switch sales have an affect on the Xbox/PS or PC market? It's like we have four systems and three distinct markets, not including portables.
 
I don't think Switch will take away from the XBO/PS4/PC market, at least not in any significant way. I think at most we'll see some overlap with a lot of people that don't game too much (likely still using PS2/PS3/X360/Wii/Wii U if they have a console) getting one.

It has the potential, IMO, to take away from the tablet market. I know a lot of families in my area get a tablet for their children so they can play Minecraft (other games as well, but Minecraft is the main draw for the kids) on. I see them playing it while eating at restaurants, in stores, at the park, etc. I could see people potentially getting their child a Switch instead, especially if their children start bugging them about it.

But who knows, I was somewhat surprised at how many streamers and VODers (most of whom don't do Nintendo games) picked one up.

Regards,
SB
 
Well, the 2nd place predictor had XBO at 260k and the 3rd place guy had it at 250k, so hopefully it's not as bad as 210k.

Perhaps this is a more refined estimate if I understand the poster correctly

PS4: 395k or higher
XB1: 235k or less

These results seem quite random in that I cant see anything much to explain a sudden monthly jump in the PS4>XBO gap, since Horizon didn't even come out in February.

Also February 2016 PS4 405k XBO 248k so YoY looks somewhat similar.

Well, I guess PS4 is 5-0 since Pro came out as I predicted. But you know what else I predicted? Scorpio will change things very substantially from the day it comes out forward :) .I dont think these predictions are rocket science.

Oh but BTW Nintendo Switch should win March so who's to say when PS4 will regain the crown pre-Scorpio. Will be very interesting. So far Switch still seems pretty hot. I haven't kept up but I dont believe Switch's generally sold out status has changed yet.

The state of NPD hardware data makes me sad...it's hard to believe there cannot be one leaker across the interweb.

I feel like one issue is NPD is kinda aware of Neogaf, one of their analysts was a regular poster there last few months. This means necessarily any leak that springs through Neogaf, NPD was aware of and probably shut down (for example, Windows Central for those couple months). I wish Vgchartz forum or someone on twitter would step the hell up with a leaker.
 
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Scorpio may give MS a win or two in the US, but pricing of both the PS4 Pro and XB1 Scorpio will determine sales going forward.

$350 vs $500? I think Sony will quickly regain their lead.
$400 vs $450 or less? MS may take a few wins, and possibly a marginal lead going forward.

I think Sony is in a position to be able to price the PS4 Pro considerably cheaper than XB1 Scorpio, and once Scorpio saturates the core market, Sony will regain their lead with their price advantage.

I find it highly unlikely that Sony will keep the price of the PS4P close to Scorpio... they will undercut it considerably. I think a PS4 Pro Slim at $350 or less this holiday season is likely to happen; or at least a price cut.
 
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You underestimate the power of Darth Vader .... Scorpio can be priced at $600 (but it wont obviously) and would still sell IMO.
 
Rangers said:
Well, the 2nd place predictor had XBO at 260k and the 3rd place guy had it at 250k, so hopefully it's not as bad as 210k.
Click to expand...

donny2112 (Neogaf) said:
The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly.
Click to expand...
A I understand it (but I may be wrong) there is deliberately no information that can be deduced from the 2nd, etc. placed predictions. The 2nd place would still be 2nd place if they had predicted 160k XB1 (the same delta, but in the other direction).
 
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Rangers said:
Well, the 2nd place predictor had XBO at 260k and the 3rd place guy had it at 250k, so hopefully it's not as bad as 210k.

Perhaps this is a more refined estimate if I understand the poster correctly

PS4: 395k or higher
XB1: 235k or less
Click to expand...
This one is fifth:
[PS4] 370K
[XB1] 245K

These results seem quite random in that I cant see anything much to explain a sudden monthly jump in the PS4>XBO gap, since Horizon didn't even come out in February.
Click to expand...

Some of us do. The previous XB1s 'win' or 'We YoY up and you YoY down' were due to huge deals and promotions from Microsoft in order to artificially and temporarily inflate their numbers. This was needed for PR purposes : "strong XB1S launch, strong momentum".

But long term the situation hasn't changed much. Basically PS4 has regained everything it had lost during last year XB1s 'win' months, not even considering the holiday months obviously.

Interestingly the highest PS4 prediction this month was...410k.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=231680492&postcount=111
 
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so a £200 XBOs incoming :)

Also, I still don't see Scorpio changing much of the landscape - Pro hasn't done much and that offers an affordable upgrade path vs the rumored Scorpio price.

Sure it'll (potentially) win a month or 2 due to the die hard Xbox fans like Rangers and my mate at work, but after the fuss dies down and people realise that other than prettier graphics it offers little over XBO (unless there's something we don't know yet) at a substantially higher price (likely double) then things will return to status quo IMHO.
 
Rangers said:
You underestimate the power of Darth Vader .... Scorpio can be priced at $600 (but it wont obviously) and would still sell IMO.
Click to expand...
This has to be a joke post, LOL. No, Scorpio will not "change the market substantially the day it launches". Not when the XB1S will be available for much cheaper. Most of the consumers are not going to care about native 4K rendering, that's just the general opinion perpetuated by hardcore gaming forums. The mainstream market is very different from what the hardcore gamer market. Price is the determining factor for sales when it comes to SKU's of the same brand, it always has. The Scorpio will sell comparatively to the Pro in relation to Slim PS4. At best, it may do proportionally better. Expecting it to eclipse the XB1S sales is just delusional

For the record, I was on Sales GAF before I was banned. I follow sales trends a lot, ended up fifth place overall in the predictions last year. Look up Javin98 in Donny's list if you don't believe me.
 
Silencerx98 said:
This has to be a joke post, LOL. No, Scorpio will not "change the market substantially the day it launches". Not when the XB1S will be available for much cheaper. Most of the consumers are not going to care about native 4K rendering, that's just the general opinion perpetuated by hardcore gaming forums. The mainstream market is very different from what the hardcore gamer market. Price is the determining factor for sales when it comes to SKU's of the same brand, it always has. The Scorpio will sell comparatively to the Pro in relation to Slim PS4. At best, it may do proportionally better. Expecting it to eclipse the XB1S sales is just delusional

For the record, I was on Sales GAF before I was banned. I follow sales trends a lot, ended up fifth place overall in the predictions last year. Look up Javin98 in Donny's list if you don't believe me.
Click to expand...

permaban?
 
chris1515 said:
permaban?
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, yes. Called out e gamer for his questionable claims and told people not to bother responding to him because he has an blatant preference to a "side". Hours later, mods came in and did a mass banning spree. I was initially banned for a month for "console wars". Said screw it, and told some of my Sales GAF buddies on Twitter that I won't be returning. Next morning, changed to a permaban because "I requested for it". LOL
 
Silencerx98 said:
Unfortunately, yes. Called out e gamer for his questionable claims and told people not to bother responding to him because he has an blatant preference to a "side". Hours later, mods came in and did a mass banning spree. I was initially banned for a month for "console wars". Said screw it, and told some of my Sales GAF buddies on Twitter that I won't be returning. Next morning, changed to a permaban because "I requested for it". LOL
Click to expand...

Yes I remember you javin98 not some of the crazy GAF troll... This is why I was surprise of your ban..
 
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chris1515 said:
You were not some troll, I was surprise of your ban...
Click to expand...
Oh, ah, gotcha. The mods have been... pretty questionable in their decisions since 2015, to be honest. Remember Zhuge? Banned him because one of the mods thought he was an astroturfer. They banned NPD George too because apparently he made an account on Aquamarine's IP address, who requested a self ban to keep her job. Long story short, GAF isn't what it was back in 2014. I had been planning to move on months before my ban. I just hope the sales talk here is just as resourceful. Unfortunately, the lack of leaks is hampering any good discussions.

Also, don't mean to come off as awkward, but I'm glad someone remembers me, heh. I'm usually not a popular one, GAF or real life.
 
Some of us do. The previous XB1s 'win' or 'We YoY up and you YoY down' were due to huge deals and promotions from Microsoft in order to artificially and temporarily inflate their numbers. This was needed for PR purposes : "strong XB1S launch, strong momentum".
Click to expand...

What pray tell, deals were those? Didn't PS4 have a cut to $250 for much of February in fact while Xbox did not? https://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-price-drop-to-250-goes-into-effect-for-a-limit/1100-6447775/

Actually I had forgotten about that cut, it may explain part of PS4's good showing, although I dont think it needs much explaining since it was similar to February 2016 results. Since then they also have launched Pro and PSVR, two huge hardware launches.

Sony is definitely in a position of strength until Scorpio comes out due to Pro. However Switch could obscure some of that momentum by winning some or even all of the months until Scorpio.
 
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