NPD February 2010

[Rangers]

Are there any good explanations as to why the Wii sold so poorly this month relative to pretty much every other NPD?

Shortage AFAIK. I dont see any when I go into stores.

PS3 is also suffering shortage. As always your local mileage may vary.

There does seem to be shipments of PS3's, my brother just got one. They just aren't enough to stay in stock.

I think PS3 would have beaten 360 with full stock. And sold 450-500k.

These are extremely high numbers for the HD twins, but I looked back and last Feb had high hardware numbers too. I think it's tax returns.

This has got to be the best Feb yet for 360, and one of it's best non holiday, non Halo months. Jan was it's highest Jan yet. And yet PS3 demand is probably even higher. This illustrates how hard it will be for Wii to ever get over 50% market share. PS360 are just working too hard at growing their sales now. And coming up you'll see more price drops, motion controls etc for those consoles.

 

[Rangers]

Bioshock 2 has to be one of the most lopsided ratios ever for a 360/PS3 game According to my calculations, NPD said the game sold 750k across all platforms. That means 562.9k on 360 and 187.1k on the other two. If you assume the PC sold a negligible 37k, that leaves 150k on PS3, or a 3.75:1 ration in favor of the 360. The current 360S3 install base ratio is about 1.65:1.

I also worked out MW2's up to date ratio, 1.84:1. It was heavily in favor of 360 month one, but has come back on PS3, for example this month only 1.24:1, but not enough to overcome the headstart. MW2 has almost Wii like legs so far though. MW2 is at about 10 million right now between PS3 and 360 (6.47, 3.51). Then I dunno, but I'm guessing maybe 6 million more in Europe? So 16 million, Plus PC sales, many of which may be digital. All at basically full price to date.

 

[zed]

Are there any good explanations as to why the Wii sold so poorly this month relative to pretty much every other NPD?

check the third graph I posted above, u can see from a bout march last year wii, has been selling about half it has done in the previous years same month, the only exception was december (cause it was heavily supply constrained in dec 2008)
i.e. wii's sales have been down for a year now

 

[djskribbles]

Bioshock 2 has to be one of the most lopsided ratios ever for a 360/PS3 game According to my calculations, NPD said the game sold 750k across all platforms. That means 562.9k on 360 and 187.1k on the other two. If you assume the PC sold a negligible 37k, that leaves 150k on PS3, or a 3.75:1 ration in favor of the 360. The current 360S3 install base ratio is about 1.65:1.

I also worked out MW2's up to date ratio, 1.84:1. It was heavily in favor of 360 month one, but has come back on PS3, for example this month only 1.24:1, but not enough to overcome the headstart. MW2 has almost Wii like legs so far though. MW2 is at about 10 million right now between PS3 and 360 (6.47, 3.51). Then I dunno, but I'm guessing maybe 6 million more in Europe? So 16 million, Plus PC sales, many of which may be digital. All at basically full price to date.

Carl B and I both touched up on this.

...

Anyway great month for both 360 and PS3 unit sales; software shook out the way one might expect. Afterall with B2 I would think that owners of the first would be the primary audience for the second, and the majority of those bought it on PC and 360. Software for all was decent overall.

I thought the same, but it should be expected if you think about it. BioShock was a timed exclusive and had huge success on the 360. When it was later released on PS3, it didn't nearly have the same success as it did on 360. Now, even though they released the sequel simultaneously, there aren't as many PS3 owners with the first game.

Btw, Borderlands was another lopsided MP game. Unlike BS2, that doesn't really have any explanation. Maybe bad timing? (same month as Uncharted 2)

 

[Squilliam]

check the third graph I posted above, u can see from a bout march last year wii, has been selling about half it has done in the previous years same month, the only exception was december (cause it was heavily supply constrained in dec 2008)
i.e. wii's sales have been down for a year now

So effectively the Wii may as well be considered a 'normal selling console' from now on? Could we effectively see the American market split into rough thirds between Xbox, Wii, and PS3? Thats an interesting possibility that I had not thought of.

TBH, I don't think its a good sign for the Wii or PS3. If the Move is meant to capture the market, releasing the Move controller with upchuck on the back end of a declining market may not be as fruitful as it could be expected. This market will be even more saturated given another 6 months of steady sales, are there enough potential consumers for the PS3 to take?

 

[eastmen]

The 360 and ps3 are both heading into quite a few good months in terms of games.

I think this year might be the year of the 360 though Natal + rumored redesign is going ot move alot of units , esp if the size gets seriously reduced and of course we may see the core finally hit $150

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Btw, Borderlands was another lopsided MP game. Unlike BS2, that doesn't really have any explanation. Maybe bad timing? (same month as Uncharted 2)

I'm starting to get the feeling that either PS3 consumers can't afford or don't want to buy multiple games a month versus X360 where it seems more people are willing to buy multiple titles a month. You don't see drastic reductions in multiple popular titles due to another popular release in the same month to the same degree as it appears on PS3. For example sales of MW2 did nothing to supress sales of Bioshock 2 and vice versa. Same with MW2 launch and L4D 2 launch.

So effectively the Wii may as well be considered a 'normal selling console' from now on? Could we effectively see the American market split into rough thirds between Xbox, Wii, and PS3? Thats an interesting possibility that I had not thought of.

Sort of. It's certainly been trending down towards "normal" (arbitrary, meaning similar to X360/PS3) console numbers. I'm not entirely convinced yet that it is now going to sell at X360/PS3 numbers for 9 months out of a year just yet. I wasn't really expecting that until 2011. For 2010, I was just expecting Wii sales to continue to converge with X360/PS3. Feb. might just be a blip.

That said, for the other 3 months of the year (Holiday shopping season) and most especially December, I fully expect Wii to continue to absolutely dominate all the other consoles in hardware sales.

Regards,
SB

 

[Asher]

I think it mostly comes down to Xbox Live/Achievements/Original-console-itis, mostly. 360 came out first, PS3 was so expensive when it originally came out...so many people had the 360 before a PS3 (myself included, even though I got my PS3 in Feb 2007). If a game is multiplatform, I buy it on the 360 every time because that's my "original console"...I've got my profile there, gamerscore, massive friends list, etc. I dabble in the PS3 only for exclusive games and media.

It seems to be rather common with most of my friends, as well. There's usually no reason at all to buy PS3 versions of multiplatform games -- in fact, for me it's the opposite as I think the 360 gamepad is better suited for most games than DS3.

 

[djskribbles]

Pretty much all multiplatform games perform similarly to the 360 version relative to their install bases (in some cases even better). What were discussing are the few rare occasions where the PS3 under-performs (BioShock 2 and Borderlands). As mentioned earlier, BioShock 2 has reasoning, but Borderlands doesn't really, other than the fact that it was released the same month as Uncharted 2.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I wonder why the Wii is supply-constrained. There's already a thread speculating about the PS3, and a few plausible theories, even.

Christmas wiped them out. They weren't expecting to smash records last December, which disrupted their supply chain.

I'm starting to get the feeling that either PS3 consumers can't afford or don't want to buy multiple games a month

I can't afford it! $120 a month for games on a grad student's stipend? No way. More like...$40.

 

[djskribbles]

I don't think that's the case for the majority of PS3 owners. Personally, I think the 360 userbase has more hardcore gamers than the PS3 userbase. IIRC, the average age of 360 owners is a little lower than PS3 (maybe that has changed) so maybe 360 gamers generally just have more time to play games. Just looking at gaf, I see several people go through games in one sitting. I had a backlog of 5 games a few months ago, and I still have a game I have yet to play. I consider myself more of a semi-hardcore gamer though. This might explain why Borderlands performed so poorly on PS3... maybe PS3 owners generally are less likely to pickup multiple games in 1-3 weeks time period.

 

[Tap In]

so maybe 360 gamers generally just have more time to play games.

whoa interesting theory but not sure I buy it. I'd say multi-platform users account for more 360 game sales (larger base, friends list, better online tools, controller preference etc) than PS3 as a matter of choice and the Blue-Ray movie crowd accounts for more movie watchers than sometimes attributed to the core Ps3 base.


on the Bioshock2 note:

Despite the Xbox 360 edition's #1 ranking in US February game sales, the PS3 version of BioShock 2 was curiously absent from the top ten listing. An NPD representative told Joystiq that the PS3 game recorded roughly 190.5k units sold last month, "just outside the top 10 at #11." If anything's to blame for this somewhat modest debut month, it's Heavy Rain. In just one week of retail availability, the PS3-exclusive "Western Interactive Novel" had enough of an impact, with 219.3k units sold, to seemingly alter the sales course of BioShock 2 for PS3.

http://www.gamedaily.com/games/biosh...-of-200k-mark/

 

[obonicus]

So the people who would buy Bioshock 2 for PS3 instead bought Heavy Rain? Interesting demographics there.

 

[djskribbles]

whoa interesting theory but not sure I buy it. I'd say multi-platform users account for more 360 game sales (larger base, friends list, better online tools, controller preference etc) than PS3 as a matter of choice and the Blue-Ray movie crowd accounts for more movie watchers than sometimes attributed to the core Ps3 base.


on the Bioshock2 note:

Again, most multiplatform games sell just as well on PS3 relative to it's install base. There are a few rare occasions. Borderlands really has no explanation as to why it performed so poorly compared to the 360 version, other than the fact that it was released in the same month as Uncharted 2. As Silent Buddha suggested, maybe 360 owners are more likely to purchase multiple games. Personally, I think the PS3 userbase consists of a slightly older demographic and spend slightly less time gaming and are less likely to purchase multiple games at once.

I'm gonna have to disagree with the NPD representative (even though he obviously has more info and background over me) despite what I've said above. I don't think Heavy Rain would've impacted BS2 sales nearly as much as Uncharted 2 did to Borderlands for obvious reasons. I think my theory is much more likely. How can you honestly expect sales of a sequel to be good when relatively very few people picked up the first? The timed exclusivity was obviously the main reason why BS1 performed the way it did on PS3 and now future iterations of the series will continue to under-perform. Unless of course 360 owners migrate to the PS3 and it becomes their system of choice.

 

[zed]

Again, most multiplatform games sell just as well on PS3 relative to it's install base. There are a few rare occasions.

most multiplatform games perform better on the PS3

Personally, I think the PS3 userbase consists of a slightly older demographic and spend slightly less time gaming and are less likely to purchase multiple games at once.

A survey (not online but from gallap or whoever is the largest survey doer in the US)
has shown that xbox360 owners were more likely to be teenagers, PS3 owners were more likely to be in their twenties.
According to gamasutra.com the most likely reason is the teenagers who got the ps1/2 feel some brand loyalty thus brought the ps3 in their twenties

BTW I forgot the biggest news from this months NPD
after 39 straight months of loosing marketshare, this month was the first time the xbox360 has gained marketshare
Im expecting the trend to continue, as I cant see the wii selling ~50% this year, in fact I wouldnt be surprised if there are months when the wii sells worse of the 3 consoles this year

 

[Squilliam]

Sort of. It's certainly been trending down towards "normal" (arbitrary, meaning similar to X360/PS3) console numbers. I'm not entirely convinced yet that it is now going to sell at X360/PS3 numbers for 9 months out of a year just yet. I wasn't really expecting that until 2011. For 2010, I was just expecting Wii sales to continue to converge with X360/PS3. Feb. might just be a blip.

That said, for the other 3 months of the year (Holiday shopping season) and most especially December, I fully expect Wii to continue to absolutely dominate all the other consoles in hardware sales.

Regards,
SB

It does put it in the realm of possibility that come Q1 next year we'll see some other guy at the top of the NPD sales charts consistantly as well.

My suspicion in regards to the Wii is that because the system has always been affordable and compelling, whilst the people buying it in a large part don't have anything holding them back. They could have hit the top of their sales curve a lot quicker than the other console manufacturers. The desired SKUs of both the PS3 and Xbox 360 have only come down to $300 and in Microsofts case its only been a drop of $100 since launch.

It begs the question, what do people want from these machines? Im not talking about the people whom are already going to get one, but the people who will not get one based upon the current offerings out there at present. What will turn a lack of interest into a future sale for these console companies? I suspect that the consoles can do FAR better in terms of overall attach rate and sales if only they can bring an all inclusive and compelling package to bear on market segments which have not yet shown any interest.

Would it be media playback? Some form of synergy with active 3D display mounted on glasses? Education style software? Board games on consoles? Training/excercise style software? Video communication? I cannot say but im sure the market which hasn't even thought about owning a console is much more vast than the number of people who play and ever will play games on one. Perhaps that is the key, the non gaming component and making that relevant to the rest of them?

 

[Tap In]

most multiplatform games perform better on the PS3

is that based on NPD user base or guestimated WW?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

NPD, I don't think it's particularly interesting metric though, because there is a year difference between the launch dates.

 

[obonicus]

Why does the year difference matter? Zed's chart was brought up to directly contradict a certain assertion with data he's accumulated. We should know it by now, I think it's brought up every NPD thread.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Why does the year difference matter?

Year is still quite a long time in the life of these consoles and it brings modifiers into the equation, some known and some unknown. Platform that has been around longer will have harder time trying to keep the attach rates high, due to more available games at retail, more available used games and more consoles that for various reasons are not part of the active user base anymore.

Maybe I was too harsh, when I said it's not an interesting metric, as it is and it's great that zed makes them. Absolute numbers still matter more though.