NPD April 2017 Sales Results

[Rangers]

Final revised April NPD estimates from Neogaf and Nintendo PR for Nintendo hardware

Switch 280k
PS4 ~215k
XBO 127k
3DS 68k

Sorry for the delay, but I've finally run a parametric analysis using the results from the Prediction League thread. The Switch number was announced by Nintendo, and Xbox One has a very constrained ambit, so the calculation for it should be solid. Only PS4 has a range of possibilities. Here are the results for April NPD:

SWI: 280k
PS4: 201k - 229k
XB1: 127k

It's typically best to choose the center of the range as an estimated value, unless there are known skewing factors. There is one here, which is the sales decay curve of previous-gen hardware (360, DS, PS3, PSV, WiiU). This lessening would slightly boost PS4 numbers. However, the effect is likely minor, so I'd suggest dismissing it. The neutral estimate for PS4, then, would be 215k.

Note that, due to more detailed analysis of confounding factors, I've revised my February estimates for both PS4 and Xbox One slightly downward, to 396k and 226k respectively. Using those new estimates as well as April's above, we get the following:


Code:

April YoY YTD YoY
PS4 +23.0% +8.0%
XB1 -25.3% -5.3%

So PS4 up about slightly YoY (8%) and XBO down slightly (~5%). I'm willing to attribute that to PS4 PS4 Pro, and I guess Horizon.

 

[djskribbles]

I disagree with that. I just think the biggest system sellers are no longer exclusives. The biggest system sellers on Xbox and PlayStation are multi plat games like GTA and COD.

Well I didn't single out exclusives, and I didn't say they don't exist... just that they're rare.
Also it depends on the market: in Japan for example, Sony and Nintendo systems see HW bumps from software all the time.

 

[Sonic]

It may very well be that other markets see bumps in hardware sales when certain games are released in other markets similar to Japan. We get much better data from Japan on a weekly basis so we are better able to observe how much sales increase on a weekly basis. As a nerd interested in this I like that. I wish we had that for the US.

 

[DrJay24]

GAF April NPD hardware calculations from prediction contest for April:

PS4 >200k
XB1 <127k

As they mentioned it seems likely DF Scorpio announcement hurt XBox sales.

Personally I still have misgivings about the UHD drive in Xbox S. I expect it's keeping the price $299 (rather than potentially 249), same as PS4, which IMO for Xbox this gen with the power disparity has never been a great place to be.

Both the PS4 and XB1 are officially $299, but both can be bought for less. I think Sony is running a $249 deal, but the XB1 can be found for $239 on Amazon. This isn't about price. I doubt it's about Scorpio either. How many people are sitting out this gen waiting for a more expensive console? It's about games and where your friends are playing. A small flip in 360 users to the PS4 is why they are losing in NA and UK. Everywhere else they had no chance.