No more NPD numbers (group hug coming up!)

[RobertR1]

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/leve...y-morning-quarterback-for-september-2007.aspx

"For starters, no more hardware sales data. (Can you taste the bitter tears streaming from various forums and message boards?) Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will of course be free to release their own sales info—and presumably leak that of their competitors, if it'll make them look good—but we will no longer receive that data from NPD. Software sales figures will only be given for the Top Five SKUs, not the Top Ten as we normally receive. We'll eventually receive hardware numbers and Top Ten software numbers, but only on a quarterly and annual basis. There are signs that this may only be a temporary pullback, but for now, this is were things stand."

I say bullshit. I'm sure leaks will happen though. Up yours NPD.

 

[Carl B]

That blog post was beyond lengthy. Well, quarterly is still not that bad, though at that point it leaves us essentially being able to get the info from financials reporting anyway. Gets rid of a fun monthly tradition though.

 

[Rangers]

It just means now the buildup to the quarterly NPD threads will be Three Times as Big

No seriously though, this sucks. I have a feeling this isn't set in stone though, GAf moderation already mentioned something about "fighting in back channels for the continuation of the numbers we already get", and hopefully leaks will happen.

It does seem to be a bit suspicious to happen at pretty much Sony's worst time ever though, even morseo since there is a vague hint the numbers may return in the future, which would be at a presumably better time for Sony. If it works out defacto as "hey we suspended the numbers while Sony was getting their butt kicked, then brought them back" I'll be a bit peeved.

 

[Geo]

So what everyone agrees is a pretty important holiday season --indeed people have been pointing at it for a year to see how it plays out-- and NPD goes dark until after it's over? Verrrrrry Eeeenteresting.

/Arte Johnson

 

[BoardBonobo]

It does seem to be a bit suspicious to happen at pretty much Sony's worst time ever though, even morseo since there is a vague hint the numbers may return in the future, which would be at a presumably better time for Sony. If it works out defacto as "hey we suspended the numbers while Sony was getting their butt kicked, then brought them back" I'll be a bit peeved.

Or maybe Microsoft have pulled the plug because they're about to get their butt kicked?

 

[Rangers]

Sony Cowboy (who I believe actually works for NPD, or similar) weighed in with this:

1) The HW news is true... for now. This is temporary as of right now and potentially could be changed based on demand from industry media and their client's concerns. The HW has only been publically available for 10 months as NPD NEVER provided this information before to media. Again, please stay tuned as this is somewhat up in the air.

2) NeoGAF will continue to be able to recieve a selected 10 SW sales for our SW prediction threads.

3) NeoGAF will continue to recieve the super category (HW, SW, Accessory $$ sales) so that we can have a view of the overall industry trends.

This is a decision NPD has made in the best interests of all of their clients. It's already taken hold on the SW side to protect the publisher's and to allow them to control what public information is released to the media and the same is now true of the HW sales.

Finally to your point. The ball has been passed to the HW manufacture's to allow them to comment on their HW sales and my expectation is that they will continue to provide immediate commentary on the HW sales, hopefully allowing for a commensurate level of information as we had before.

And also this

I know this will fall on deaf ears to those that don't want to hear it, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the performance of ANY HW and was not requested by any HW manufacturer. (ie Sony).

This is simply about the PR release that NPD has been providing for the past 10 months. Outside entities that purchase the data have some restrictions on their ability to publically comment, but can certainly comment about HW sales performance (just not units)

Seems to me that if MS says "360 sales were up 32% this month" we can extrapolate the numbers from that. However with a slight error.

Unfortunatly we wont get new monthly numbers, to correct errors that could grow.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Finally to your point. The ball has been passed to the HW manufacture's to allow them to comment on their HW sales and my expectation is that they will continue to provide immediate commentary on the HW sales, hopefully allowing for a commensurate level of information as we had before.

Good grief! As if it wasn't bad enough people were making predictions and sweeping observations on one and two month figures, now we're going to have predictions made on PR comments! "Look! Look! Sony's sales are easily beating XB360 because Sony reported 'sales have exceeded expectations and placed us in the primary position as market leader in our field of targeted interest.' That's Primary Position people! PS3's number one!"

 

[Teasy]

Or maybe Microsoft have pulled the plug because they're about to get their butt kicked?

Microsoft got its arse well and truley paddled for the entire of last gen and nothing like this ever happened.. No if any one of the three are responsible for this its Sony.

 

[zed]

bummer (though i dont think this is at the request of sony/ms/nintendo)

Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will of course be free to release their own sales info—and presumably leak that of their competitors, if it'll make them look good

another more likely possibility is vgchartz, i believe NPD have not been happy with vgchartz (for obvious financial reasons)

 

[mrcorbo]

bummer (though i dont think this is at the request of sony/ms/nintendo)

another more likely possibility is vgchartz, i believe NPD have not been happy with vgchartz (for obvious financial reasons)

I wouldn't be surprised if this were part of the reason. VGChartz have been using the NPD monthly numbers to try to calibrate their own numbers.

Of course, VGC's main problem seems to be insufficient sample size. Given enough time to address this and accurate data points to make adjustments to their scaling factors they might eventually get close enough to be competition. Obviously, NPD doesn't want this.

Sucks for us, though.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I wouldn't be surprised if this were part of the reason. VGChartz have been using the NPD monthly numbers to try to calibrate their own numbers.

This is hardly going to stop them posting numbers every day though!

 

[BoardBonobo]

Microsoft got its arse well and truley paddled for the entire of last gen and nothing like this ever happened.. No if any one of the three are responsible for this its Sony.

IMO last gen was nothing. MS well and truly knew that Sony had it sewn up. The introduction of the Xbox was a brand introduction and not alot else.

Besides I was joking about anybody forcing the ball.... Ok.. Ok. It's Nintendo. Reason. They're embarrased by the wupping the Wii is laying on everybody!

 

[mrcorbo]

This is hardly going to stop them posting numbers every day though!

True. But as long as their numbers can't be trusted to be accurate it will stop them from being relevant.

 

[AlphaWolf]

True. But as long as their numbers can't be trusted to be accurate it will stop them from being relevant.

I think its really sad that any official sources have quoted that place in the past and we might be left with the prospect of more doing so in the future despite a likely marked drop in accuracy.

 

[mrcorbo]

I think its really sad that any official sources have quoted that place in the past and we might be left with the prospect of more doing so in the future despite a likely marked drop in accuracy.

I am actually a supporter of VGChartz and what they are trying to do. I just don't think they have shown that they are reliably good at it. If you are willing to accept that they do have independent sources of sales data, this change shouldn't effect their accuracy in a negative way. And they have been providing weekly sales data for quite a while now which is in the ballpark enough to be convincing as more than just pulling numbers out of thin air.

The real problem is that NPD data was a rock solid and almost indisputable reference that people could use to support arguments, projections, etc. VGChartz data is nothing close to an indisputable reference, so any argument using that data as a foundation isn't going to get very far since it would be pretty easy for somebody to just call the numbers bogus turning the thread into a "Is VGChartz accurate?" discussion.

Oh, and NPD really hates VGChartz

"Regarding rogue sites that actively use existing data from market research firms, combine that data with estimates and then claim the data as their own -- it's true I'm no fan of sociopathic behavior and, as such, have real issues with sites like these but this has nothing to do with the change, either,"

 

[AlphaWolf]

Well I hate that place probably as much as they do and I have no vested interest. They may have some sources, but at best I'd call them unreliable, sometimes they are close but often they are no better than my guesses (often even worse). I can't tell when that will be so I'd prefer my own guesses rather than claiming theirs are credible because they have sources.

 

[ninzel]

How many other things do we buy that we obsess over their sales numbers.
I just bought a 2007 Mustang,a much bigger and more expensive purchase than my console. I have no idea how many Mustangs were sold nor do I care.
It's always been a bit odd the preoccupation with sales. This just seems like a righting of the ship IMO.

 

[AlphaWolf]

How many other things do we buy that we obsess over their sales numbers.
I just bought a 2007 Mustang,a much bigger and more expensive purchase than my console. I have no idea how many Mustangs were sold nor do I care.
It's always been a bit odd the preoccupation with sales. This just seems like a righting of the ship IMO.

I investigate a car purchase way more than I ever would a console purchase. Looking at car purchases is a whole different thing. Expectations and features all widely vary more in automobiles than they do in what are basically a similar CE devices.

Also I'd hardly say its obsessing, its certainly interesting to see a bit more of whats going on. If you just read press releases from Sony, MS and Nintendo you'd really never have a clear idea whats going on in the industry. There's certainly people who might take it a bit too seriously as they whip their own horse, but I guess that's part of what makes it interesting.

 

[PARANOiA]

I have to admit, this saddens me since NPD week is just so entertaining.

 

[mrcorbo]

How many other things do we buy that we obsess over their sales numbers.
I just bought a 2007 Mustang,a much bigger and more expensive purchase than my console. I have no idea how many Mustangs were sold nor do I care.
It's always been a bit odd the preoccupation with sales. This just seems like a righting of the ship IMO.

Maybe you would you be more interested in how well your car was selling if those sales were what determined the availability and quality of fuel available for it. Changes things, doesn't it? A better comparison would be the interest in the sales of the HD disk formats and there you see that there is similar interest in the sales for the same reasons. The sales performance and consumer tendencies of a media platform strongly influence the amount and direction of investment by the content providers. Aside from fanboyish reasons, that is why it is a compelling subject if you have an interest in gaming.

Sales tracking around media in general is also the rule, not the exception. From the Box Office rankings for movies to Nielsen ratings for TV to album charts to bestseller lists for books, games are the one type of media that doesn't have a freely available equivalent.